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So let me get this straight.
Guy should probably be in the top ten prospects in baseball… And somehow that ranks him below other players simply because he is blocked.
Your Lamborghini is locked in the garage and somehow it is a worse car than the prius.
….
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..
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Someone doesn’t understand how prospect lists work.
Pads, it is Bader’s brief big league performance that has put him ahead of Kelly for me. It is not just his hitting but also his defense and just his overall presence that lead me to that conclusion. Kelly’s stock hasn’t gone down but Bader’s has gone up.
I don’t know where to slot Zac Gallen in. Also Knizner looks more promising than, say, Edmundo Sosa or the Cuban outfielders.
Gallen is pretty amazing. Extremely rare to find a 21 y.o. college pick pitching in AAA as a starter. Extremely rare!
I’ll go with Kelly 3.
I think people need to realize we have a lot of good prospects, but probably only one great one at this point.
I get your point on assessing Kelly based on his value to the organization rather than his ability as a catcher. Its just a slightly different way of looking at it.
Kelly has to be trade bait this winter. I don’t think the Cardinals will give him up for anything but a player that will really help next year. Just an opinion, but I think he could elevate the entire pitching staff of a team like the Reds.
Was going to go with LV here, but will go with Hudson instead for #3. He’s had a meteoric rise since being drafted.
My point about Kelly is: we won’t really know what we have at the MLB level or if he is progressing like a #2 or #3 prospect. It’s almost like Reyes being out an entire season…. is he the same guy that we remember him to be, and be 100% sure?
Prospects need playing time to improve. Ideally, Kelly needs to go somewhere where he’ll get the opportunity to play and progress, not just sitting around crunching seeds. He can’t go backwards to AAA to get playing time…. and at this point not an option.Doesnt matter.
The question is “who will have a better career”
NOT
“Who will have a better career as a cardinal?”
thats the purpose of prospect lists. Your reasons are irrelevant to the question at hand.
Edit : Also while im thinking about it…
We know more about kelly than the people you are touting. Also, baders value as a prospect is predicated on playing center… And he is extremely blocked there as a cardinal.
To give you an idea with kelly… Because for some reason people want to not rate him high… Repeatedly. Excuse after excuse.
Buster posey with better defense.
…. And yes I can back that up.
That is a top ten prospect in baseball. It is a crock to put him third on this list much less lower.
He shouldnt be traded. Period. Yadi should accept his 60 million dollar severance and accept that he won’t be starting by the end of it.
Not much to it really..
Posey had a better year at 22 in aaa to be fair… But carson had time learning a new position so gotta give some leeway there. Some. I’m not asking for much.
Career ops for posey (in pitchers park to be fair) : .850
Carson was named best defensive catcher in aaa.. So the defense is there. Also power develops late and he had the catcher learning curve.. Well…
.834 ops in aaa … Add a bit of power with a slighly extended curve due to learning the position and maybe subtract a bit because the pcl is a hitters league…
Carson is a hairs width short of that standard (posey) most likely… But it aint much short. And his defense is excellent.
He needs to be WAAAAAAAAY more respected and hasnt been.
I don’t think ranking a 22 year old pitcher who went from Single A last year to the majors this year as the No.2 player is disrespecting Carson Kelly.
… Not voting for him at all because of irrelevant reasons is.
… And the prospect ranking industry in general has him 30 or 40 spots lower than he should be.
You’re probably right in a sense… But pitching tends to underperform long term in prospect lists because injury risk is higher.
…and kelly plays the hardest to find position in the game.
So yes… I will repeat — it is a crock that he fell this far. Harsh but accurate in my eyes. Feel free to disagree… I dont take this too personally.
I will defend my stances though.
…
P.s. I get infinitely more caustic when we discuss Dexter fowler (which will be inevitible when bader sierra mercado etc. come up).
The words “extremely stupid” don’t cover my feelings on that one from day one. I blew up on here for about a week.
Carson Kelly is the runaway winner for #3 with 8 votes to Hudson’s 2 and Bader’s 1.
Voting is now open for #4.
The ones who ultimately disrespected Kelly was the STL FO.
Just because you think Bader’s value is solely based on him playing center doesn’t make it so. And for a guy that is extremely blocked there as a Cardinal he sure is playing a lot there. Besides, with Kelly you are argueing his prospect status is independent of whether he is blocked or not. Why wouldn’t the same apply to Bader?
Bader #4
It does. I wasn’t the one trying to argue that it was.
Bader plays a premium position and well… He can play.
Value as a prospect is predicated by position. Someone with Kelly’s development/stats who plays first isnt half the prospect.
My vote for #4 is for newcomer Tyler O’Neill.
The 22 year old hit 31 homeruns this year in AAA and THEN has hit 4 in the 7 postseason games as well.
Total 2017 line:
.250/.320/.527/.848 with 35 HRs and 14 SBs (against 2 CS btw) with a 9.3% BB-rate and a 26.5% K-rate.
He was the BA top #38 prospect, BP top #53, and MLB top #36 going into 2017.
Bader vs O’Neill should be a heck of a debate…
Fwiw… Imo bader because if he hits for this type of power/obp in center he is an all star.
O’Neill still has rob deer issues… But maybe more upside. Maybe. Has 40+ homer potential but …
To me bader can hit 30 in center — which makes more of a difference than 40 in right and he has less downside.
Says something that a guy like O’Neill has people breathing down his neck to even crack our top five when he was preseason top fifty overall.
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