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Arenado’s true cost to STL is $58M for the next 3 years
2025 $32M = COL $5M + STL $27M (present value $24M)
2026 $27M = COL $5M + STL $22M (present value $19M)
2027 $15MWhat do I mean by present value? Arenado has $6M deferred in both 2025 and 2026. This money is deferred without interest about 14 years. The Cards must fund that in 2025 and 2026 at 5% and the simple rule of 72 says money doubles in value at 5% in 14 years. So the Cards will fund the $6M deferred in 2025 with $3M and the $6M deferred in 2026 with another $3M. So in each year the present value of the future $6M is $3M.
Based on Woo’s reporting, it seems likely to me that Arenado will play out his contract with STL. I’m okay with that. Contreras and Gray are both owed more money than Arenado over the next 3 years.
By the time Bloom takes over, Arenado will be owed only $34M more. That’s hardly going to handicap the new POBO.
A 5-man rotation means most starts are made by a starter on 5 (not 4) days rest due to off days.
A 6-man rotation will mean most starts will be made by a starter on 6 (not 5) days rest due to off days.
Starters will basically pitch one day per week.2024
ERA Starts Days of rest
3.87 42 3
4.08 1528 4
4.13 2053 5
4.33 1125 6+Admittedly, those 6+ days of rest starts probably don’t happen as often to #1 or #2 starters.
However, with a 6-man rotation your #1 or #2 starter would get only 27 starts per season.
With 27 starts, they would need to average 6 innings per start just to make it to 162 innings and qualify for the ERA title. Also, winning 20+ games would become nearly impossible.I’d like to see someone try a 7-man rotation of 4 starters with a pitch count of about 75 on 3 games rest followed by 3 “piggy back long men” with a pitch count of 50 on 2 games rest, and then a 6-man bullpen.
Gray 75, Matz 50
Mikolas 75, Liberatore 50
McGreevy 75, Thompson 50
Pallante 75, Matz 50
Gray 75, Liberatore 50
Mikolas 75, Thompson 50
McGreevy 75, Matz 50
Pallante 75, Liberatore 50
Gray 75, Thompson 50
Mikolas 75, Matz 50
McGreevy 75, Liberatore 50
Pallante 75, Thompson 50The starting pitchers go through the batting order twice (4.5 IP).
The long relievers go through another 13 hitters (3 IP). Ideally, this is a LHP but the other team cannot stack RH batters against them… which makes them better than they would have been as starters.
Then the bullpen takes over for the final 25 pitches per game (1.5+ IP).Sounds like $6M guaranteed and $11M total if the Cardinals exercise the option for year 2.
My vote would be for Alfonso Rivas to go through waivers once again.
November 2, 2023: Selected off waivers by the Cleveland Guardians from the Pittsburgh Pirates.
December 22, 2023: Selected off waivers by the Los Angeles Angels from the Cleveland Guardians.
January 29, 2024: Selected off waivers by the St. Louis Cardinals from the Los Angeles Angels.A note of optimism for the new year…
Only 7% of the US population is 75 or over and they have experienced almost 60% of the deaths due to COVID. They could be vaccinated by the end of January.
Only 17% of the US population is 65 or over and they have experienced over 80% of the deaths due to COVID. They could be vaccinated by the end of February.
Only 29% of the US population is 55 or over and they have experienced over 92% of the deaths due to COVID. They could be vaccinated by the end of March.
Clearly the death rate should be dropping quickly starting in just a few weeks and should drop by 92% over the next 3 months. Obviously, the infection rate will not drop as quickly since those under 55 won’t be vaccinated soon, but it will also begin to drop more slowly.
The threat perception will drop as the death rate dramatically drops. I think by Spring, we will see a return to some “normalcy” since getting back outdoors will also slow the spread rate as it did last Spring.
It seems like the high risk baseball player could be vaccinated in February and the rest in late March without appearing to “jump the line”.
I’m also hoping for 25% attendance in April/May and 100% attendance by June or July. They may choose to delay the season’s start by a couple of weeks which is not a bad idea since thing should be rapidly improving.
