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Good comments and discussion. I will just add that I have no problem with a general approach of winning the division and hoping to get on a roll in the post season.
You look at a pretty good run of seasons, and most of the time the big winners fall in the post season, and some relatively mediocre regular season team rides a wave.
With the Cardinals resources and division, it is a good strategy. But if you are going to do that, you need to hedge your bet some and make sure you at least have a couple of strong starting pitchers.
Pitching is the name of the game, and in post season it is magnified.
Because of Walt Jocketty we got to have Tony LaRussa, Mark McGWire, JD Drew, Jim Edmonds, Chris Carpenter, Larry Walker, Scott Rolen, Dennis Eckerlsey, and many others. Maybe he got lucky but I doubt it. He built teams to win, not just hope to get lucky.
Along the way Bill DeWitt decided that Walt’s methods weren’t financially sustainable because the emphasis seemed to be on veteran stars instead of cheaper home gronw players. BDW concluded that to build a consistent winner the team needed to focus on the farm system with a few supplements from trades and free agency. That idea seems logical and prudent to me but it really hasn’t resulted in the kind of success this organization used to strive for. We haven’t won a world series since 2011, haven’t won a pennant since 2013, and have only been a serious contender a few times in the last decade plus. So in my estimation the formula hasn’t really worked. Enough with the cautious prudence and dry powder. I don’t expect this team to be aggressive every year but once in awhile would be nice.
The other thing that has changed over the years is how we choose managers. I am not one of those guys here who blames Marmol for EVERYTHING but I don’t think he helps much.
We have had six full time managers since 1980. We have had a:
Hall of Fame Manager
Hall of Fame Manager
Hall of Fame Manager
Rookie Manager
Rookie Manager
Rookie ManagerI’m sorry but an iconic, storied franchise team like the Cardinals shouldn’t be hiring rookie managers. That is bush league. We could have had Francona when TLR left but we didn’t. The Rangers went out and hired a HOF manager and that worked out ok. The Cubs just hired the best manager in the NL and they will benefit from it. I truly believe the Cardinals don’t want an experienced manager because it wouldn’t mesh with their extreme top down approach. That doesn’t sound like the third best ran team in the NL to me.
He built teams to win, not just hope to get lucky.
Ha, the harder I work the luckier I get. Seems like teams with better managers and players are luckier most years.
Perhaps being a lower-tier lucky team has a better low-risk return on investment most years.
I believe that if BDW Jr. had it to do over, he would have still fired Jocketty. The game was changing and the old guard vigorously resisted it. The build from within model sustained them for 15 years after Walt left.
Most fans look at post-season results as the measure of success. I get that for fans. But we probably look at world differently than ownership, who are businessmen first and foremost. Championships are great, and the Cards have a couple. But I’d bet they have had more profitable years than 2006 or 2011, before and since then and were very happy with that. When push comes to shove, the bottom line on the balance sheet matters more than the trophy is my suspicion.
Of course, to maximize profit, the team has to play well enough to fill seats at full price (or close to it) all season long. That means having a competitive team. Being among the very best in MLB, though, probably doesn’t add enough incremental revenue to adequately offset the higher player contract expense.
The ideal scenario is that farm system provides enough backfill to stay competitive and enable them to keep payroll growth under control. They didn’t keep the pitching pipeline full enough and they got burned in 2023. We will see if the quick fix they attempted (trade for starting prospects and buy relatively inexpensive placeholders) works out.
Hey Brian, your post says pretty much what I was getting at in the last sentence of my post above it. I was just much more economical with words than you 😉 Or maybe I wrote the headline and you the article.
I think there’s a lot to what you said in BDW’s case. Some billionaires might treat professional team ownership differently than strictly business, because they can afford to, and they are fans too. Who doesn’t like a trophy? We all can name an example. BDW, however, never seems to stray too far from his business principles.
Yeah I understand what their business model is. Build a team good enough to compete for a playoff spot, keep fans interested enough to buy tickets, then hope to draw a straight flush at the end of the season and go on a deep run. That is great for the bottom line but not good for winning championships and very frustrating for fans of an iconic franchise. The Cardinals love to build a good team but loathe to build a great team. They always stop short because, as you alluded to, they feel the extra investment isn’t really worth it due to the randomness of the postseason.
Things are cyclical though. They may have thought they were on the cutting edge when they switched to a build from within system but it appears to me that many teams have passed them by and it is now the Cardinals who are flailing. They have the 18th best farm system but still possess a strong resistance to acquire more certainty from the outside. That doesn’t sound like a recipe for success to me but maybe the weak NLC will bail them out again.
I agree with you, gscottar. It feels like the Cardinals are no longer leading edge. But what will be the next frontier and who will lead them there (if they are willing to truly change)? One thing for sure, outspending the competition for top free agents will never be the model under current ownership.
Right. The Cardinals have never been big on free agency and never will be. In my opinion, one of the hallmarks of the Cardinals over the years has been to trade for veteran stars near the end of their contract then sign them to extensions once in STL. It was a very succesful way to acquire talent. Jocketty did it with the names I mentioned earlier in this thread and Mo did it with Holliday, Goldy, and Arenado. It seems to me that those type of deals don’t happen much anymore for whatever reason. Perhaps it the fear of being burned by the prospects you have to let go of.
I don’t know what the next frontier is but I think their needs to be a better balance between building from within and being aggressive acquiring outside talent. The Cardinals have the resources to utilize all avenues. As bling said no matter which system you use you need to be able to make good decisions to execute. Maybe having Bloom around will help.
In a year or two Mo will try to create a rotation out of the new laundry list. Time will tell if it works out better than 2023’s laundry list.
Proof is on the paper. The Cardinals haven’t won a championship since 2011, the weakest of all their championships but a championship nonetheless. After that pujols left and most of their great players were gone. The rest just hanging around til they were gone. No one is a fan of a team for being financially prudent or making money. Outside of unless you have stocks in them, are you daily sitting around rooting on Microsoft, apple, or Disney. To some that don’t care maybe the Cardinals legacy of winning the last game doesn’t matter. But to some of us older fans it does. This ownership is a disgrace to the Cardinals history in my opinion. It is possible they had worst in the past at times but that was before my time.
I am not defending ownership, but offering my opinion of their motives. Unless 2023 becomes the rule rather than the worst season in three decades, this isn’t the worst ownership in our lifetime. Surely, you remember the final years of the brewery’s ownership in the early 90’s. Then there was the entire decade of the 1970s.
When all is said and done, the only way to send a message to ownership is to not support their product.
If no utility infielder is added to the current roster, Winn has a LONG, LONG leash. Sink or swim I guess.
Edman to SS and Carlson in CF is not SS depth. It’s tearing down everything you’ve built during the offseason.
the only way to send a message to ownership is to not support their product.
During a conversation just last evening I was making the point that maybe all the empty seats last season got ownership’s attention. But a wise sage occupying the next bar stool pointed out that the empties mostly happened after the org gave up on the season and became sellers. So what, I said. Well, the sage’s point was that ownership/FO is not stupid and would have anticipated exactly that as a consequence of waiving the white flag. Since it was anticipated, it would not have been any kind of a wake up call, but rather, just a known consequence which they would have factored in to the decision to sell at the deadline.
So the bottom line is that nothing has yet happened to get ownership’s attention. If a .500ish team fills the stands this year, we can expect nothing good to happen any time soon.
But wait, there’s more. After another round or two, the conversation resumed and a further wise prognostication was made. It was suggested that the FO will understand that it is important for the team to not get off to a terrible start and dig a big hole early like last year. So if a key injury were to occur (or even a key face plant by a key player right off the mark) during ST or early on, it would be likely that that a move of substance would be made to plug the hole and avoid having the season go over the edge. Hmmm. It is hard to argue with logic like that. Pitchers and catchers report the day after tomorrow, and the worms will begin to turn.
If no utility infielder is added to the current roster, Winn has a LONG, LONG leash.
I think that a ss capable replacement at Memphis might be the way it goes, but I agree it will be interesting to see how Mo handles it.
Maybe they are waiting to offer a minors deal to a vet shortstop who can’t land a 40man deal. To date, they are not blocking Winn at all.
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Bill pocketed 7-ish mil last deadline, selling off contracts, and those funds were NOT forwarded to this seasons budget.Not surprisingly the FO has built another bubble roster.
I suppose we should add the risk of an IL stint for some reason to the overall risk of not having an obvious plan B other than scrambling the outfield by moving Edman. Young players can get hurt too. I had overlooked that until just now, having been concerned with the failure to hit risk.
bling said:
So if a key injury were to occur (or even a key face plant by a key player right off the mark) during ST or early on, it would be likely that that a move of substance would be made to plug the hole and avoid having the season go over the edge. Hmmm. It is hard to argue with logic like that.
I get why that view seems reasonable, but it probably isn’t realistic. (My assumption is the somewhat vague “move of substance” means a trade.)
Only very rarely is a major trade made in MLB during the early months of the season. The reason is that the teams that will eventually be sellers haven’t yet come to that conclusion. Telling their fan base they are giving up in April or May would mean four of five months of increasingly empty seats, including the most lucrative summer months.
Yes, I agree with that Brian. The idea is that it would not be a sell off type of transaction, present value going one way and potential future value going the other way. Rather, it would be present value for present value. A player of substance going and another coming. Obviously, it would have to be a player with an in house replacement going, and one with no in house alternative coming. What that might consist of is a matter for debate. But the point is it might be unavoidable if the season were imperiled early on. Unavoidable because of the consequences of the season cratering early.
The Cards weren’t picked by most pundits to win the WS in either 2006 and 2011. They made the playoffs and things seemed to roll from there. That’s probably the way it’s going to be going forward. They can’t outspend the Yankees, Mets, Braves, Dodgers, etc. So as fans, we’ll probably always be rooting for the underdog.
One thing they can do, however, to try to go deeper into October is the have a clear #1 and #2 starter. Right they we only have a #1.Here is an interesting hypothetical. Suppose the deadline approaches and the Cardinals are in the thick of it. Further, suppose that all 5 starters (who are all contract guys making big bucks) remain healthy and are performing about as expected. Gray looking strong and the others turning in competent starts, but none having emerged as a dominant top of rotation arm to go along with Gray. What does Mo do at the deadline? Not what do we want him to do, but would he be likely to actually do.
On the pitching side, acquire the best arm(s) possible. If you need funds, use what you skimmed off the top last deadline.
I’m happy all of our young core are still here. Let’s hope one or more of our young pitchers emerges as something more than a 4th or fifth starter, because they’ve made their one big acquisition. Hopefully it will be a fun season watching baseball being played, because it sure isn’t any fun watching this organization operate anymore, but I will wait before I hate. Maybe this is just the way it has to be for most teams. Baseball on the field and daylight savings time can’t get here quick enough.
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