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I don’t look at gray, Gibson , and Lynn as 60 percent of anything. If Lynn and Gibson were still in their prime you could say that but not as is. They may surprise me but that’s not how it tends to go. Our in house pitchers have so far been very inconsistent.
Reading through the last couple of days of this thread is rather depressing.
It feels like the FO is rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Brian if you are right that the Cardinals won’t have the pitching to really contend for 2-3 more seasons then they should have traded – if they could – both Arenado and Goldschmidt and loaded up on prospects.
Riding these two for ticket sales while burning up the rest of the productive portions of their careers seems selfish and short sighted and may actually work to keep the franchise mired in mediocrity.
bling asked:
Is it too much to expect the player development system to also contribute? Or is it 100% on ownership to just write checks to buy a team?
So my question is: What is the system’s contribution to the rebuild going to consist of when the opening day roster rolls out?
Seems like we’ve covered this a lot already, but here we go.
The player development system delivered Walker, Herrera and Winn most recently. Several drafts were not focused on pitching, and the arms they did add have not come through, so there is a gap in that pipeline. We knew that. They knew that, hence all the deadline trades. But the pitchers aren’t ready yet. No new news here.
So, no, there probably aren’t going to be any major new contributors from the farm this spring. Some want to see Scott make the team, but I don’t think he is ready.
But if there isn’t any pitching help ready by spring of 2025, then we will get year two of Lynn and Gibson.
ZTR said:
Riding these two for ticket sales while burning up the rest of the productive portions of their careers seems selfish and short sighted and may actually work to keep the franchise mired in mediocrity.
It isn’t just for ticket sales. It is also to remain competitive instead of tanking. But of course, winning helps keeps up the ratings and ticket sales. So it is all related. When all is said and done, they are in business to be profitable.
The organization’s strategy all along has been to be consistently good, not superbly excellent for a year or two and then drop to the cellar and rebuild. Unfortunately for them, they were trying to be consistently good, but ended up in last place, anyway… So now they have to scramble in the short term.
The incremental revenue to the team for going deep into the playoffs is not that much greater than if they get booted in the first round. The financial key isn’t October success, it is drawing 3.3 million fans during the prior six months, ideally without having to offer deep discounts that cut into profits.
Again this is from a business perspective, but that is what steers the ship.
P.S. Regarding Goldy, if he doesn’t like what he sees in 2024, he would not have to sign the extension most assume he will be offered and will accept. He has the right to become a free agent after this coming season. Arenado, on the other hand, will have to ride it out…
As 2023 draws to a close nothing has moved the needle on my yippee meter even one point. And while surprises are always a possibility the outlook remains morose. It’s not Gray who’s going to transform us into a winner. Perhaps the offense could catch fire this year and give us an attitude infusion, but then again, without serious pitching help, perhaps not. One gets the impression the FO is not even trying. I think I’ll take a nap. Wake me when spring training starts.
So the answer is yes, a rebuild is just about writing checks to buy a team.
I somehow don’t think player development would want to shine a light on Herrera. They took a look and then BDW spent $80 Million to go get somebody. As of now, Knizner priced out of the role and Herrera is a cheaper version. If that is worthy of touting, we’re doomed. Maybe something will develop in a few years and maybe not.
The two marquee names are more promising, but are unsettled as of now, whatever the pom pom squad wants to think. I’d agree we need to see how they develop, but Walker is not going to be a right fielder. 1B/DH is where that is going. As I mentioned on another thread, after his first ML season Winn has the idea that a 170-175 lb in-season playing weight is not going to cut it in MLB. Not a stunning development. So he says he will bulk up for next year. We have to see how that works out. He doesn’t want to bulk himself off the SS position, and I believe that to be a fine line. But getting the bat knocked out of his hands isn’t going to work either. Playing ball with the big kids is hard, which is why I push back when we want to chisel them in before they’ve done it.
I am not sure what’s coming any time soon, other than hopefully Scott. We will see how he fares in AAA.
bling, what is new in what you are saying?
Herrera, Winn and Walker all had better results in the minors than the guys they replaced, but they have yet to fully prove themselves in the bigs. Only time will tell.
But the current issue is pitching. They pretty much had to go out and spend to rebuild the rotation short term since they apparently didn’t want to trade the hitters other teams want. The Cards are in a tough place and aren’t going to spend what it would take to be a true contender in 2024. They didn’t break the bank like a strong development org such as the Dodger$. They are hoping they spent just enough to get by. But a few injuries or downturns from guys on the wrong side of 35 and they’ll be right back to the same unproven youngsters from 2023.
I am not expecting or pushing them to do anything they aren’t likely to do (sign Monty, trade for Cease, etc). I am just trying to be realistic (IMO) about where I see them right now.
the current issue is pitching
agreed.
They pretty much had to go out and spend to rebuild the rotation short term since they apparently didn’t want to trade the hitters other teams want.
agreed
aren’t going to spend what it would take to be a true contender in 2024
agreed
hoping they spent just enough to get by.
agreed
a few injuries or downturns from guys on the wrong side of 35 and they’ll be right back to the same unproven youngsters from 2023.
agreed
Brian, I find that we are in total agreement, so you must have come around to my way of thinking. 🙂
It is a bleak situation. There is no depth in AAA and very, very little of value that could realistically be traded since a full frontal rebuild was not pursued. I do not see that situation improving over the next couple years, or ever, with the current failed system in place.
I know you have made a point of the shift in draft priority, but I don’t see it as a factor. Bat missers are the current thing, and everybody has stampeded off in that direction. Mo is running flat out to catch up and hop on the bandwagon.
I’ve thrown the 2023 W/L away. We basically held auditions the 2nd half.
The pen needs more shutdown success vs righty bats, we’re too light there. The Hicks role, with saves and holds.
Winn needs backup at SS, not named Edman. Acquire a SS/2B bench player as the U.I.
If Noot, Gorman and Donovan don’t get traded, and we get decent team health, we’re competitive to the deadline.
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Who gets stretched out at ST? The 5 and usually two more right? I’m curious of Thompsons role for 2024.ZTR, depressing is a great word for it! Basically what it is, is we sucked last year and aren’t really much better this year! This team won’t compete again until major changes are made from the very top IMO! Been awhile since I’ve gone into a season knowing we have no shot, but here it comes!
I am not sold on the argument that since the Cardinals were a 71 win team last year they will need “x” amount of WAR to get back to 90 wins. While that is technically true there are issues with winning and losing that computers don’t understand. I wrote a post about this a a couple of weeks ago. AS TLR said players are men not machines. I have seen this happen before where teams can look good one year and terrible the next with pretty much the same roster. It happens in all team sports because there are intangibles that we can’t quantify.
We basically held auditions the 2nd half.
We didn’t do any worse after the deadline trades.
Record through July 30: 47-60, .439 win pct
Record after July 30, 24-31, .436 win pctHe doesn’t want to bulk himself off the SS position, and I believe that to be a fine line.
Ain’t that the truth. The Wizard of Oz did it, but he was one in a billion.
I have seen this happen before where teams can look good one year and terrible the next with pretty much the same roster. It happens in all team sports because there are intangibles that we can’t quantify.
They replace Marmol with a cardboard cutout of Red Schoendienst and add 15 wins without a single trade or free agent signing.
I would like to know the baseball team that finished last one season and then suddenly with the same guys finished first the next season. Yea it happens in football maybe even basketball but usually it’s because of injuries so in reality it isn’t the same team and usually even those had new faces. We have new faces but they are on the same old bodies.
I would like to know the baseball team that finished last one season and then suddenly with the same guys finished first the next season.
The ’66 Cards won 83 games, and the next season the ’67 Cards won 101, and a championship. And that was with their ace, Gibson missing over a third of the season! Pretty much the same roster.
Without going over the rosters with a fine tooth comb, the only really big difference is the won/lost totals of Nelson Briles, who went from 4-15 to 14-5. When Gibson went down with a broken leg, Briles responded by winning ten decisions in row, I believe.
( I kept getting the “Error: Your reply cannot be created at this time”, so will try posting this lengthy comment in chunks. )
I am in the unfamiliar position of being more optimistic than almost everyone else. About how the team will do in 2024 I mean. I do absolutely think that the player development system is broken and ineffective, and there are talent evaluation problems from Mo right on down to Randy. But if we compartmentalize, and look just at how the 2024 team will fare, I am looking forward to a good season. Too many injuries could derail that, as there is little depth, but otherwise, I am optimistic.
The reason for optimism is that I don’t think the problem in 2023 was too much related to the talent level of the players making up the active roster. As a 26 man squad it was not hugely different than the previous 93 win squad, and it was not worse than 25 of the other 29 squads. I think the debacle was more due to intangible factors, which affected everyone, from the bronze busts on down. Players have ups and downs, but when they are all down simultaneously, it is not them, there is a common denominator, which I believe was a pile up of intangible factors which overwhelmed both the squad and managemant. Yogi was right about the mental aspect of the game, and chemistry and the right vibe are paramount to winning. The game is played by people, not by computers crunching numbers.
A book could be written about it, but largely it had to do with a clumsy and painful turning over of the page from the Albert/Yadi/Waino dynasty to whatever comes next. I don’t think Waino returning was helpful at all, and I say that in a matter of fact way without meaning to infringe his status as a franchise icon. It became obvious at some point that putting the team in the best position to win was not the sole and primary objective of virtually everyone, at least besides 25 of the guys in the dugout, and so it would have been hard to maintain winning as their objective to be pursued day in and day out with relentless intensity. And that is the difference between winning and not winning.
Well, I can’t get the rest of it to post no matter what. Its a lot of time and effort wasted, as I’ve been working on it a couple days.
Did those 66 cards team finish last, I doubt that. An 83 win team is a winning team. It’s not unheard of a winning team having a standout season after a decent season. This cardinal team wasn’t a winning team and finished last in a very weak division.
I will say this. It would be possible if a few things go right that this team could get to 80 to 85 wins which could get us a wild card. Sad as that is to say so if that’s your goal one could consider it a good thing. The problem is one of those things that need to go right or maybe two is injuries and managing. Injuries are almost always an issue with the cardinals and with an older roster maybe even moreso. The managing I dont expect to improve either.
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