- This topic has 145 replies, 18 voices, and was last updated 1 year, 3 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I guess mo now has changed his mind and wants to be somewhat competitive, i guess maybe the players who dont want to be traded has changed his mind. So nothing really has change. We are just ok with being mediocre. This ownership cant even do a rebuild right. I figure the fans will see through this nonsense.
The only thing that has changed is that Contreras and Gray are apparently staying. Apparently.
Goldy, Lynn, and Gibson are almost definitely not coming back.
Helsley, Arenado, Mikolas, Matz, and Fedde could all still get moved.
I wouldn’t expect any significant additions either. I think the rebuild (reset) is still on.
Other than Contreras isn’t going to be catching, I don’t know what the organization is thinking about the position and neither do any of us.
This will be the last one of these posts on this string from me (unless I respond to someone). I set out to decide whether or not the 2025 team would be any better than the 2024 team if the only change was Lynn, Gibson, Goldschmidt, and Kittredge leaving town and everyone getting a year older. This probably isn’t reality and I know that. It’s likely someone or multiple someones is getting traded and it’s likely someone new is also coming in. Still, sometimes you need to evaluate where you are before you decide where you want to go. I have no doubt that this is where the front office started – in an exercise similar to this one (with far more data and infinitely more informed opinions than my own). “Where are we at now?” is the first question that needed to be asked. Then, “Where do we want to go?” And finally, “What needs to change between where we are and where we want to go in order to achieve that?”. That’s why I did this because it was a bit fuzzy in my head so it helped me to lay it out. That brings us to our final segment – the Bullpen.
The Cardinals bullpen in 2024 had:
XFIP: 3.64
FWAR: 3.9That was the 12th best FWAR compared to other major league teams. That doesn’t seem that outstanding – middle of the pack. But FWAR isn’t a very good measurement for relief pitchers. I’ll stick with it though because that way I’m consistent with the starters. 3.64 XFIP is a good number. Here are the top 5 XFIP’s for the Cardinals relievers: Helsley (3.35), Robertson (3.47), Matz (3.55), Kittredge (3.64), and Armstrong (3.66). The two at the bottom were Leahy (4.41) and Pallante (4.68). By FWAR, Helsley was all by himself at the top with 2.3. Fernandez had a solid .8. Most everyone else was between 0 and .4 except Pallante and Romero who both had -.1 and Gallegos who stunk at -.5. Overall, the group was 23rd in strikeouts per 9 innings, but 6th in strikeouts per walk. They had the 8th lowest number of innings pitched, which does have some negative affect on FWAR, but that is generally a good thing.
Where does that leave us for 2025? Bullpens are volatile so it’s hard to say. Kittredge and Robertson are gone, but they didn’t have a huge impact to the numbers above as they were mostly average – just steadily average especially in the case of Kitty. Pallante is now a starter, which is a good thing for the bullpen as his bullpen numbers were poor. Helsley may or may not be traded. It seems like 50/50 at this point. Since he carried the lion’s share of good production, the pen’s effectiveness for 2025 is likely to be completely depending on his return or not. There are some potentially good arms waiting in the wings though – just not Ryan Helsley good arms. I think Graceffo probably joins the pen – either right out of the gate or by at least the midpoint of 2025. Svanson is an easy option now as well given that he’s officially on the 40-man roster. Loutos had a successful stint in Memphis and may get used more. Matz has been good in the bullpen in the past and may find himself pigeon-holed there throughout 2025 (if he isn’t traded). And Granillo may finally find a little more control and be a back-end stopper. There’s lots of potential waiting in the wings, but only Helsley is proven. I do worry a bit about Romero and his up and down season. Overuse probably did him in. I’m hoping Liberatore gets to finally fully concentrate on being bullpen-only and not worrying about switching back and forth. The pieces are there, but without Helsley to anchor the end of the pen it could be a wild ride. For now, I’m going to project he’s still around for this exercise. But along with 3rd base, this is the most up in the air projection.
2024 RP: +2
2025 RP: +2The final tally leaves us at 2 arbitrary points better than the 2024 team. That’s with keeping Helsley, Gray, Arenado, Fedde, and Contreras. With them, this team is roughly an 85 win team give or take 5 games. That leads to the question of is it worth it to roll out another 85 win team? I know most of us on here are in the HECK NO camp. Trade and reset for 2026 or 2027. Although by then you’re without Gray plus Arenado and Contreras are well past their prime. Therefore, the big question is does Mozeliak push to go for it again with an 85-win team and cross his fingers and hope it ends on the high side of that knowing he has no payroll flexibility to add much of anything at all? Or does Bloom retool by making trades to help improve the odds when he becomes GM for 2026 and 2027? I’m actually hoping that neither happens and I may or may not get to those thoughts on this board. Another piece for another time.
What do you think TCN? Do you agree with my results – that today the 2025 version of the team is probably a little better than the 2024 version, but not by much? What would you do if you owned the team (and you were 83)? Also, just to throw this out there, what are the odds of a non-top 10 market team winning more than 1 World Series in the next 10 years?
What do you want TCN? Do you want a crappy year in 2025 with no chance for the potential of a better year in 2026 or 2027 knowing that there’s a decent chance you just end up with a long string of crappy years by trading away some core players if you don’t make the right trades? Or would you rather just keep running it back knowing that the dice have to fall all in your favor for you to win the jackpot – knowing that hey, at least there’s a chance every year? It seems like the Cardinals may straddle the fence by keeping more of the core and giving themselves that 1 in 100 chance, but also trying to sell of a couple assets to put a little hay in the barn for a future need.
That leads to the question of is it worth it to roll out another 85 win team? I know most of us on here are in the HECK NO camp.
I am not so sure about that. I have been surprised by the number of posters who believe either the reset is just a scam to save money, totally unnecessary, or still haven’t acknowledged that it is really happening. For me, the reset is long overdue and needs to be fully implemented.
As for replacing Helsley, I think a darkhorse candidate is Ryan Fernadez. Not all of his stats were exemplary in 2024 but his avg against of .236 and WHIP of 1.35 were pretty good. I think he has some potential.
I’m not concerned with Mo “going for it” by wandering off the path, on his own. Mo has always been lockstep with Bill. He may have his deficiencies, but Mo’s stl loyalty has appeared top shelf to me.
I started and finished this series back in November attempting to predict how the Cardinals might fare in 2025 bs 2024 assuming the players remained similar. Non-Spoiler alert: The team did remain similar with only 1 addition in Maton. I missed on Libby being in the rotation over McGreevey, but otherwise these assumptions on players and positions are pretty accurate.
It’s too early to get the full picture yet on how everyone will perform. My projection thought the 2025 team would be a little better than 2024, but not significantly better. By position, here’s where I thought we’d be in 2025 vs 2024:
C: Significantly worse due to Herrera’s defense and lack of Contreras’ offense.
1B: A little better overall with about the same defense and a bit better hitting mostly due to Goldschmidt’s terrible production in ‘24 with RiSP. Timeshare between Contreras and Burleson with Burleson playing a little more in the field and Contreras playing more as DH.
2B: Significantly better on offense and defense. Donovan gets most innings with some Saggese who I like. This equates to lots better defense and much better offense as well over what Gorman provided in ‘24.
SS: Same. Winn probably improves his defense slightly, but hitting regresses just a little.
3B: Similar if Arenado stayed. Worse mostly due to drop in defense if he left.
LF: Slightly better. No Burleson in the field and hopefully a bit more Nootbaar.
CF: Basically the same with the biggest opportunity to upgrade the team.
RF: Significantly better. RF was downright dreadful in ‘24. No Burleson in the field and a more refined Walker equals better defense than ‘24 and offense maybe improves slightly.
DH: Tremendous improvement with Contreras getting most ABs and Baker/Gorman getting matchup ABs.
SP: A touch better mostly due to having Pallante and Fedde in the rotation the entire season. I had McGreevey basically replacing Gibson’s results and Fedde being an upgrade to Lynn.
BP: Basically the same. Still an area of strength even though Kittredge would be missed. I figured Helsley has to regress a little but we have plenty of young arms to call up as reinforcements in the event of an injury.
Thus far, most of this looks correct. I think I wasn’t high enough on Herrera. And I was a bit overconfident on the bullpen holding up. But we shall see as time goes on. Also, Scott thus proving better offensive production than Siani by a long shot. Hope that holds up. About 10% of the season is now through.
On the position player side all that happened is offing Goldy to make room for the catcher who can’t catch and the outfielder who can’t field. OK, we can call that progress if we want. On the pitcher side we swapped Maton for Kitt, and offed Lynn and Gibson for Fedde and another episode of the Liby experience. We can call that progress too. I get that they need to sell tickets, but it seems like the ML roster could be put to better use this season somehow, in the overall scheme.
Please be specific on who you’d rather see up from Memphis (or Springfield). One could make an argument for McGreevy, but other than that, I am not seeing anyone ready who is being blocked. Given how negative you are on the major leaguers, I am really curious if there is anyone you like in the minors, either.
Disclaimer – I’m not predicting a World Series win or even appearance in the below.
This team feels somewhat similar to the 2015 Cubs. They struggled early – lot of up and down – then exploded the 2nd half of that season.
They were then dominate in 2016.
IF McGreevey comes on well and you swap him out for Mikolas and maybe one other bullpen piece that would be huge.
The lineup has been vastly improved over whatever that was we suffered through in ’24.
IF Gorman stays healthy, hitting, and moved to 3rd base allowing Arenado to be traded for assets – could be a fun ride ahead over the next 3-4 years
I’m encoraged so far. I’ve made an effort to see most of it. We need 2 everyday players and 2 starting pitchers to emerge as better than average players. It’s a long race. PS There’s nobody I’m dying to have brought up at the present time.
ZTR, the 2015 Cubs won 97 games then thrashed us 3-1 in the NLDS. I don’t get the sense the 2025 Cardinals are in that category at all. We are probably a 75-80 win team who may sell off some vets at the deadline then limp to the finish. Are we positioning ourselves for bigger things in 2016? Maybe, maybe not. It depends if the FO will consider the “transition” complete and are ready to get aggressive. I have my doubts about that. I see 2027 as the year we will take a major step forward.
Please be specific on who you’d rather see up from Memphis
Bringing people up is just a potential part of the larger task of finding out who can be part of a successful team next year and beyond. Put Gorman at 3B everyday and find out if it works. Sit Arenado on the bench until he accepts a trade or rots. He can fill in when Gorman inevitably goes on the DL. Put Saggese at 2B every day. See if that works. Donovan can be IF/OF UT. Off Burly. Try Koperniak in that roster slot. An extra OF we will need. Another 1B/DH we won’t need. Don’t worry about righty lefty this year, find out who can play every day. Slide Liby into Maton’s spot and bring up McGreevy.
CIF, while it is extremely small sample size, Gorman is doing much better this year. He was striking out at around 22% over 56 PAs in spring training and only 1 time in 14 PAs in the regular season. It remains to be seen if this improvement holds up but it is promising.
If Gorman can’t be an everyday ML 3B, it doesn’t matter if his hitting improves. The Cardinals should have learned their lesson. Don’t get so obsessed with hitting metrics that you forget a player has to play defense somewhere.
While Gorman should be at 3B, he can play a little 2B, DH and maybe 1B as long as Arenado is hitting decent. I would start Gorman over Burleson at DH most of the time.
Contreras and Baker have 1B/DH covered. That is my point exactly, we don’t need DH fill in types with limited usefulness otherwise. We need to identify everyday position players. Fill in around the edges later. First, find out if Gorman can play 3B. If he can, then his bat matters. Thay have to learn from the disfunctional roster they have had and not try to shoehorn anybody who can potentially hit onto the active roster. Its not fantasy baseball.
Herrera will be out a while but is he still viewed as a catcher? Is he just another DH bat? Can he play elsewhere?
The catchers are seperating themselves defensively. I like the current pair. Baker / Herrera resemble the Burly / Gorman depth?
If a 3Bman can handle middle infield, what are we questioning? His ability to play 3B? As long as he doesn’t have a noodle arm…..
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.