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Herrera should always be in the lineup against RHP’s – either as a catcher or DH. He negates the need for carrying Baker.
Just curious, how does that negate the need for Baker? Herrera has the reverse splits and Baker will hit lefties far better than righties, as he always has.
My solution for facing left-handed pitching would be to bring back Bader and Grichuk. Mark Canha could also be an option. Making Siani a 4th OF, Burleson a 1B/DH and allowing Walker to develop in the minors while bringing in low-cost veterans gives you a viable outfield, and allows Donovan to function as a utility player.
Donovan
vs RHP – 1157 PA’s – .287/.370/.430/.800 slash line
vs LHP – 334 PA’s – .259/.342/.328/.670 slash lineNootbaar
vs RHP – 1051 PA’s – .242/.347/.433/.780 slash line
vs LHP – 328 PA’s – .256/.351/.402/.753 slash lineSiani
vs RHP – 254 PA’s – .232/.277/.279/.556 slash line
vs RHP – 110 PA’s – .192/.269/.255/.525 slash lineWalker
vs RHP – 468 PA’s – .270/.325/.436/.761 slash line
vs LHP – 175 PA’s – .213/.297/.387/.684 slash lineBader
vs RHP – 1869 PA’s – .239/.302/.367/.669 slash line
vs LHP – 676 PA’s – .249/.315/.461/.776 slash lineGrichuk
vs RHP – 3051 PA’s – .242/.288/.449/.737 slash line
vs LHP – 1489 PA’s – .274/.324/.509/.833 slash lineCanha
vs RHP – 2672 PA’s – .252/.356/.407/.762 slash line
vs LHP – 1331 PA’s – .244/.335/.428/.763 slash line2025 is basically a player development year, it doesn’t sound like they are putting any $$ into it at the Major league level.
They should know if Gorman & Walker are going to sink or swim and where they stand heading into 2026
I would assume they will be trying to develop Crooks at Memphis in 2025 to takeover in 2026 at catcher.
Can Donavan find a permanent position in 2025 or is he going to be a 3-4 position utility player.
Can Burleson build off his 2024 year, same for Winn. Can Siani stay healthy, can Scott develop, would think a full year at AAA would help him, can Saggese find a spot or is he developing at AAA.
Can Contreras play 1b if not is he just a DH or is he traded
Can they develop some young starting pitchers in 2025 that will be ready to roll into 2026, this should be priority #1
Same with the Bullpen can they find some more arms.
I assume they are going to trade Helsley, not sure his saves will mean much in 2025 when your 10-20 games under 500….they need to get a solid player in return …really question if current mgmt can pull that off.
How far off is Weatherholt and what position is he.
Don’t fret Pugs. Everyone can play first base. You’ll see.
They underutilized the DH by not treating it like a position. Why not first bade too.
My solution for facing left-handed pitching would be to bring back Bader and Grichuk.
I agree with this LA, at least bring in one of those guys. And if Arenado is traded we will need a RH 3B to pair with Gorman. Saggese could be a possibility or we could turn to our old friend Patrick Wisdom if he is non-tendered by the Cubs.
In order to help understand how much better or worse I believe the 2025 version of the team will be vs the 2024 version, I’ve decided to arbitrarily rate each club at each position using a scale that ranges from -3 up to +3. A score of zero would imply that the position was right at league average. I’ll use FWAR to drive most of my thought process, but since WAR is not quite all-inclusive, I may make some judgements one way or the other. This way I can total everything at the end and come up with a completely arbitrary inference about how 2025 is going to play out compared to 2024.
For the 2 positions I’ve already covered . . .
2024 Catcher: +2
2025 Catcher: -12024 1B: +1
2025 1B: +2Net so far: -2
Let’s talk about 2B. In 2024, 2B was a problem position. It was mostly manned by Gorman and he regressed big time both offensively and defensively.
Here are the main 2B stats from 2024 for all Cardinals at that position:
OPS: .682
OAA: -2
FWAR: 1.3As a whole, the Cardinals produced the 22nd best FWAR from the 2nd base position. While that’s pretty bad, it was only our 4th worst position by FWAR in 2024. We’ll see the others much later. Nolan Gorman himself was worth -6 Outs Above Average so the total above got a lot of help (mostly from Donovan).
Where does that leave us in 2025? It would be hard to put Gorman back out there with many of our pitchers pitching to contact. You need good defense up the middle in particular. That’s why I, like many other Cardinals fans, project Brendan Donovan to be the primary player at 2B. And, if he gets pulled into the outfield due to injury, then I expect rookie Thomas Saggese to be next in line at 2B. That should improve the defense quite a bit. Donovan put up +5 OAA in 2024 in just 421 innings at 2B. That seems likely to be a bit of a fluke. I expect him to be average or slightly above average there. I’m thinking Saggese will be around the same level of defense. The offense should improve quite a bit as Donovan is definitely a plus hitter. For this position, the offense will mostly depend on our corner outfielders staying healthy so Donovan isn’t out there covering for them. Saggese is a big downgrade offensively to Donovan, but at the top end, Saggese could get to close to MLB average. My guess is he ends up falling around 10% below average.
2024 2B: -2
2025 2B: +1That 3 point pickup puts our net at +1 so far.
What are your thoughts TCN? How much 2B will Donovan actually get to play? Do you think Gorman will still field some innings at the keystone position or is he done there? If everyone is healthy, does Saggese even make the team knowing he’ll be on the bench quite a bit?
I’d build the position players around Winn/Donovan at SS/2B, and also those two at the top of the lineup. An everyday middle infield is a strength. Find another utility guy.
Moving on to SS. This is probably the easiest position to discuss because there is zero chance that the Cardinals change shortstops in 2025. Winn played almost all the innings at SS in 2024 so most of these stats are his.
Here are the main SS stats from 2024 for all Cardinals at that position:
OPS: .714
OAA: 5
FWAR: 3.7Overall, the Cardinals got the 11th most FWAR from the SS position of any team. That’s pretty good – really good considering it was manned primarily by a rookie who didn’t hit well in his debut the year before.
Where does that leave us for 2025? I think this one is going to be about the same. You might hope that Winn continues to improve his hitting and defense. He may. But odds are that he’s about the same player overall in 2025 as he was in 2024. If I had to guess, I’d guess the hitting regresses slightly and the defense improves slightly. He had a bit of a rough start on defense at the beginning of the 2024 season and then got much better. Offensively, pitchers are familiar with him now and he may see a slight sophomore slump, but I don’t think it’s going to be by much.
2024 SS: +2
2025 SS: +2Overall, we’re still at +1 arbitrary point better than 2024.
What are your thoughts TCN? Is Winn durable enough to continue to play 150+ games given that he had a few back issues this past season? Do you think his hitting will improve or decline? I think there’s a good case that his fielding is getting better, but without Goldy at 1B, do you think Winn gains some errors on his throws?
Winn will have to avoid whatever the Cardinals do to promising young hitters who start off good and get worse, often precipitously. He will have to avoid the potential psychological effects of not having gold glove quality play at 1B, and playing through a rebuild, I mean reset, including probably playing for a lame duck manager. But all that are unmeasurables which cannot be reliably quantified, and we know what to do with all that.
Maybe it won’t be as big of a step downward to the 2025 first baseman as some assume. As noted elsewhere, Goldschmidt was a below-average MLB first baseman defensively for the first time in his career in 2024.
Last year at this time, you suggested Winn was a bust and criticized the Cards for rushing him to the majors. If I remember correctly, you were calling for him to spend 2024 with Memphis.
So “we know what to do with all that…” 😉
Yes, it is going to be the higher odds play to always predict failure. It gets pretty boring, though.
I regularly point out elements that contribute to risk of a negative outcome, primarily because nobody else is going to do it. As usual, not burying my head in the sand about the negatives is equated with predicting that the negative outcome will happen.
I regularly point out elements that contribute to risk of a negative outcome, primarily because nobody else is going to do it.
Where has nate gone? You have cornered the doom and gloom market and he now has nothing to post.
Just curious, how does that negate the need for Baker? Herrera has the reverse splits and Baker will hit lefties far better than righties, as he always has.
You are correct, Herrera makes Burleson redundant, which actually works out better for the Cardinals, as Burleson has trade value, Baker does not.
Burleson *can* play the outfield, Baker cannot.
Burleson has proven he can hit MLB hitting, Baker has not.
Burleson has the platoon advantage against 75% of MLB pitchers, Baker has the platoon advantage against 25% of MLB pitchers.
If the Cardinals are going to get their roster right, they should be shopping Burleson to declutter the roster, as he can actually bring a prospect back.
And if they were smart, they would be packaging Burleson in trade discussions with Arenado to lower the cash going out/increase the prospect return.
Continuing on, we now land at 3B. Like SS, 3B is fairly straightforward because it was mostly manned by the same player throughout ’24. Unlike SS though, it might not be manned by the same player in ’25. Time will tell if Arenado is traded. I would guess that it is somewhat likely to happen. The real question is “How much payroll of his will the Cards need to eat to move him?”
Here are the main 3B stats from the 2024 for all Cardinals at that position:
OPS: .745
OAA: +10
FWAR: 4.1That FWAR is the 3rd best in all of baseball for third base. That was a little surprising to me, honestly. I knew Arenado had a very good season defensively (he was +9 OAA), but his bat was right around average and that’s not generally great for a third baseman. I dug a little deeper and I can see that Donovan helped out but running a 200 WRC+ in his 27 plate appearances. Crawford & Saggese were also both +1 defenders at the hot corner (although Fermin was a -1). Overall, 3B was a clear strength in 2024 even if it didn’t always feel that way.
Where does that leave us for 2025? We have no idea really. If Arenado is back, I’d expect similar numbers. Maybe a touch worse defense and a touch better offense. If he isn’t back, then it seems like the Cardinals have 2 possible paths. The first path is that Nolan Gorman takes over at 3B (with Donovan at 2B). This feels like the most likely outcome. Gorman probably turns that +10 OAA into -1 or something like that, which is a fairly precipitous drop. It’s hard to tell with his bat. I’m going to say it would be slightly better overall compared to Arenado. The other option is that Donovan takes over at 3B and Saggese becomes the new second baseman with Gorman being left at Memphis or as a DH/pinch hitter. I don’t think Saggese has done anything to earn a full-time position yet so this only happens if he’s red hot in Spring training. In that scenario, I’d bet on Donovan being a neutral defender and hitting significantly better than Arenado, which probably puts us just under last year’s value in total because of the defensive drop.
2024 3B: +2
2025 3B: Who knows? I’m going to say 0.Overall, we’re now at -1 arbitrary point worse than 2024.
What are your thoughts TCN? What are the odds Arenado is back? If he isn’t, who is more likely to take over at 3B? Are you as surprised as I was that the Cardinals had the 3rd highest FWAR from 3B in all of baseball?
Donovan does not have a left side arm. Which rules out everyday play on the left side.
There is no justification for believing Gorman can do anything well besides hitting the occasional mistake into the parking lot.
The plain fact is there is nothing on the roster or on the horizon to replace Arenado. Nothing compelling, certainly.
For his career, Gorman has 60 home runs and a 102 OPS+, which is just above a league average player. He has had highs and lows, but is still 24 years old.
If the Cardinals discard him and he finds the consistency elsewhere, you’d be the first in line to criticize the team for trading him. But not everyone has given up on him as you have.
Gorman doesn’t belong at second (where I see Donovan as their best fit), but he is the obvious choice to get a shot at third if Arenado is traded. Gorman is the best option they have, but it isn’t like he is garbage. He is an inconsistent young player coming off his first truly subpar year. No one knows yet how he will respond in 2025, but I am guessing they will give him another shot, as they should.
Winn can be more than a league avg bat. His two strike approach flipping outer half pitches oppo is top shelf. He is looking inside early with mixed results, but its the correct approach, and needs to continue developing. His bat control to shoot line drives with his forearms is fun to watch. Almost a retro feel to watching him.
I agree that if Arenado is gone and Gorman is here then Gorman will be tried at third. Why not? Coupled with a catcher playing 1B the 5-3 should be an adventure. But we can hope.
The Cardinals have been very clear that they don’t intend to field the most competitive team they can in 2025. Instead they plan to give the younger players plenty of opportunities. Maybe that will finally resonate with our fans come April.
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