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Some of you feel this is an exercise in futility and you’re mostly right. We don’t know who is going to start at each position next season let along even who is going to be on the team. Some insiders project the Cardinals to be very active in trades this winter. But like most of my exercises here, I’m doing this as much for me an for anyone else. I really want to get a picture of what I think 2025 might look like with the current team compared to 2024. Thus far, it looks like catcher might be a free fall because we’re losing Contreras’ bat and arm, but we should make some improvements at 2B and 1B. SS is steady. 3B is a giant question mark. Four offensive positions left to examine including DH.
Here are the main LF stats from the 2024 season for all Cardinals in that position:
OPS: .732
OAA: -1
FWAR: 2.1The FWAR was 14th best for the LF position. Basically average. Donovan got the bulk of at bats as a left fielder. 393 for him, 118 for Burly, 111 for Noot, and 53 for Pham with a few others getting under 50. In those at bats, Noot was the best with a .931 OPS as a left fielder, Donovan next at .736, with Pham at .681, and Burleson at .593. Donovan and Siani each contributed +1 OAA while Burleson had a -3 in his limited time out there.
Where does that leave us for 2025? I believe Nootbaar will be the planned left fielder unless they go down the CF experiment with him again (I hope not). Noot played as an average defensive left fielder last season, but hit the baseball a ton for that .931 OPS listed above. As long as he stays healthy (big IF), then this should be his position. Donovan is likely his immediate backup unless someone else is acquired. Koperniak could get a look as a backup as well. But I’d expect mostly Noot and Donnie. If Noot plays a little more, we should get better results. If he doesn’t, then we won’t. Either way though, the days of having Burleson’s glove in the outfield I think are behind us so I’m going to project for slightly better numbers next season.
2024 LF: 0
2025 LF: +1Overall, we’re now back to even with the 2024 squad in my completely arbitrary ranking system.
What are your thoughts TCN? Can Noot ever stay mostly healthy? Do you want to see Koperniak play as the reserve outfielder? Do you think there’s any chance Burleson gets another inning in the outfield?
Noot’s injury last year was because he landed on a ball and fractured his ribs, if I recall.
Agreed, if Walker is RF, Noot is LF. I don’t mind him as a CF. He’s not bad, just not elite. If you have competent corner outfielders around him, his bat far outweighs the marginal dropoff in defense. Nobody will look good surrounded by Walker & Burleson.
As long as Burleson is on the team, the Cardinals will keep running him out in the outfield. This is an organization that never learns. Package Burleson with Arenado and move on.
You generally don’t get rid of your cost-controlled talent until they become expensive.
You do get rid of all your big-money contracts, which the Cardinals evidently tried to do, but were blocked by their propensity to hand out NTC’s.
But if you believe the same organization that had everyone believing they were leaders in player development and analytics when they in fact had gutted those two departments can do a total reset in one year, I have some ocean front property in Montana to sell you.
The Oakland/Sacramento/Las Vegas A’s currently have a projected 40 man payroll of $34M so yes some teams gut it all the way down to the bare bones.
I don’t know if the reset will take one year or two years or three years but when the team is ready to be competitive again I am confident the fans will come back. If the fans can see progress being made to build back they will be more accepting.
I’m happy you’re giving us stuff to talk about, j.
Assuming guys are still here , I agree Walker will be in RF. Not sure beyond that. Noot in left tells them nothing they don’t already know. Same with Siani in CF. That outfield reeks of what we’ve been losing with. I have to say I’d hate to see them role with that.
Not questioning grays competitiveness. If he had been here a good time like mikolas or somebody like that, staying in a losing situation by choice is ok. But thats not the case. I an questioning his want to be a winner. Call it what you will. Far as businwss goes, things change
OF Nootbaar, 600 PA’s. Bwahaha! O well, as many as he can get. Bats cleanup.
(Winn, Donny, Willson and Noot)The best ability is availability Noot! 🙉
I really hope we have something different to look at in 2025. But Mo and Ollie are still in charge as far as the ML roster goes.
So, we think Nootbar in LF, Siani in CF, and Walker in RF?
On paper that might be the worst OF in MLB both at the plate and defensively. (Siani is fine with the leather but a gaping hole with the bat )
I am really hoping they trade for a CF that can hit and let Siani be a back up.
ZTR – Thanks for the bridge as CF is indeed the next position up to discuss. I’m with you. I laid that out in my roster piece a month ago as well – the Cardinals really need a real center fielder. Even if Siani can somehow repeat with his extremely good defense, he’s just barely above a replacement level player because the offense is so bad.
Here are the main CF stats from the 2024 season for all Cardinals who played that position:
OPS: .570 (yes, that’s right. .570. Not a lot above the past Pitcher offensive level)
OAA: +15 (that’s really great)
FWAR: .3That FWAR from all of our position players playing CF in 2024 was the 28th best in baseball (yes, somehow 2 teams actually got worse production from CF). The plate appearances got split with Siani taking 321, Scott 151, Nootbaar 56, and Carlson 50. The OPS’s for those players were not pretty obviously. Carlson led the way with a respectable .744, Siani was at .569, Noot only had a .569 as well, and Scott scraped the bottom at .516. Siani led the defense with 15 OAA. Scott landed on +3. Noot was at -1. And Carlson had a -2 in his time patrolling CF, which pretty much negating his offensive line.
Where does that leave us for 2025? I’m still crossing my fingers that the team is able to trade for a right-handed hitter who can hit and play competent CF. The options may be limited. The backup plan is likely to play Siani full-time and let Scott learn to hit in Memphis, although I suppose they could give the job outright to Victor Scott. Both Scott and Siani are plus defenders. Siani is incredibly good. Scott could be if he took better routes. Siani is a perfect bench player as he can be a late game defensive sub or late game pinch-runner. Or, if you need a bunt dropped down late game, he could potentially do that too. Because trades are hard to predict, for this exercise I’ll just assume that Siani is back in CF. But if there’s a position where we can easily get better results, this is it.
2024 CF: -2
2025 CF: -2Overall, that still keeps us even with the 2024 squad with 2 positions left to look at and then I may also examine the starters and relievers as groups.
What are your thoughts TCN? Are you ok with Siani being our CFer because he at least provides some exciting highlight plays to watch? Do you think Victor Scott is the better choice now knowing he will likely improve his bat and defense even if he might start out as a worse player than Siani? What other CF options are out there?
When Ankiel debuted as a position player, TLR instructed him to hit for average because your power is natural. Tony wanted him to survive on BA/OBP because he needed him. Knowing he trusted his power, it was going to be more about pitch location, to get results on mistake pitches. He wanted him battling for BA on edge pitches.
If you take out Ankiels name above, and insert Gorman’s, aren’t we at the same place with Nolan?
CF: If Walker is in RF, Noot is banned from CF. Noot has his own IL issues, without exposing him to Walkers reckless tactics.
If Scott gets 50% of starts at mlb, is he better off playing full time in the minors, waiting for the inevitable CF injury? You prospect gurus should know where his current development is at, and where he needs to play. Where do you want him J?
The local boy Matt Veirling is the type of 3B/OF that could fit the roster well. To date CF is his highest GS total with neutral splits overall ( slightly better vs lhp’s).
So, we think Nootbar in LF, Siani in CF, and Walker in RF?
Do we think that is what the Cardinals will do? Yes.
Do we think that is what the Cardinals should do? No.
I like the idea of targeting CF as a position to acquire a better young player who could be a long-term solution as part of the return for Helsley or whoever else they unload to save money. This kind of approach seems aligned with their strategy.
For example, the Dbacks have two good CFs in Corbin Carroll and Jake McCarthy. Perhaps the latter could be had in the right deal…
I think some of you guys are setting yourself up for a big disappointment as to the expectations for 2025. There will be no big upgrades purchased. This will be a developmental year. It would not surprise me to see Victor Scott as your starting CF on opening day.
It is possible that a cheap RH bat is purchased for CF to pair with Scott or a cheap RH bat for 3B to pair with Gorman when Arenado is traded but I wouldn’t expect much more than that.
gscottar, why do you (apparently) think they will only acquire prospects and no MLB players in trades? There are plenty of 0-3 year guys with low salaries they could target.
The guy I offered as an example, McCarthy, has about the same service time as Gorman and Pallante.
I agree Brian. I’d either like to see a trade (like Helsley) that brings back a long-term answer in CF or a smaller trade for a stop gap 1 or 2 year guy that can play the position at least at an average level while Bloom’s team develops Victor Scott. I don’t like the idea of putting either Siani or Scott out there full time again even if the team is resetting.
CF is one of the positions the Cardinals should absolutely upgrade. But the front office has a one-track mind, and once they get it in their heads, they cannot pivot.
I posted this earlier:
Siani
vs RHP – 254 PA’s – .232/.277/.279/.556 slash line
vs RHP – 110 PA’s – .192/.269/.255/.525 slash lineBader
vs RHP – 1869 PA’s – .239/.302/.367/.669 slash line
vs LHP – 676 PA’s – .249/.315/.461/.776 slash lineBader’s offense is superior to Siani’s. He is far superior against left-handers.
If I was trying a one-year reset, I would sign Bader and try to compete in 2025 (no, Bader alone doesn’t make us more competitive).
Worst case, you have a trade chip at the deadline.
Last year, he made $10.5 million from the Mets. I think he will fall into the $8 million range this year.
The two things that hurt the Cardinals most last year were:
1) They were playing a minor league outfield most of the season
2) They had a poorly constructed benchThe next two things on that list were:
3) Goldschmidt seemingly killed every rally with a strikeout
4) The old-man innings eaters approach to the rotationI don’t get why a team that is retooling would spend to sign MLB veteran stopgaps with limited upside. It is not like they have a CF of the future in the system that is on the cusp. It is unclear whether Scott can do it and Siani is who he has shown to be. I’d rather see them get someone who has a chance to contribute over multiple years.
I like the idea of targeting CF as a position to acquire a better young player who could be a long-term solution as part of the return for Helsley or whoever else they unload to save money.
With trading Helsley, I think you have to go maximum return, regardless of position.
The teams that want an elite closer on a one-year deal are most likely teams that believe they have a legitimate chance to win the world series.
They are not going to want to give up players on the MLB roster, so those trades most often involve prospects.
I don’t get why a team that is retooling would spend to sign MLB veteran stopgaps with limited upside.
Because they were blocked in their full tank and rebuild attempt by their NTC’s, and they don’t have a viable CF.
The idea of buying veterans on one-year deals is you have trade assets at the deadline.
And honestly, if they had a viable outfield last year, they wouldn’t be doing this reset this year.
I looked at recent deals for rental players (well, I found this article that did it for me!). Though the focus is a half-season, not a full one, it was still pretty discouraging. The trade returns have been pretty dismal, with just a few exceptions.
https://www.mlb.com/news/biggest-mlb-trade-deadline-rental-deals
gscottar, why do you (apparently) think they will only acquire prospects and no MLB players in trades? There are plenty of 0-3 year guys with low salaries they could target.
They could do it either way. Since the emphasis seems to be building up the player development system I assumed they would go after minor league prospects but I could be wrong.
I wouldn’t discount the idea of signing a veteran on a one year deal though because they could be flipped at the deadline.
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