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Same old faces, same old song. What’s that thing they keep saying about deck chairs and that old ship??? Has a familiar ring to it? And no doubt familiar results.
I looked at recent deals for rental players (well, I found this article that did it for me!). Though the focus is a half-season, not a full one, it was still pretty discouraging. The trade returns have been pretty dismal, with just a few exceptions.
The article generally shows a couple of things. First is that the idea that a rental deadline deal will bring you as much as a guy with one year of control seems to be bunk. Occasionally it works that way, but not often. The second is that trading prospects for good players rarely ends up being a terrible move. Prospects are risky. What would St Louis’ offense have looked like this last year if we just gave the Nats whatever they wanted like the Padres did?
GS is more than willing to take back a salary moving Arenado. His choice, Chris Taylor fits both CF and 3B, if we needed to absorb salary. That’s ~14mil if memory serves, but the return will always depend on WHO we are trading.
My choice, Vierling is an arb1 w/3 yrs control, in the same arb class Donny & Noot. Expected arbs….
Donovan 3.6mil, Veirling 3.0mil and Noot at 2.5milTrue JJ.
Trading Arenado is very different than trading Helsley. With Arenado the objective is mainly salary relief and opening up 3B for a younger player. That could be done by paying down Arenado’s salary or taking on a smaller bad contract in return. Then get what prospect you can.
With Helsley is it all about maximizing the return. Helsley’s salary is peanuts compared to Arenado so we should try to get the best player or players we can in that deal.
I have Fedde for Veirling. Btv values?
What one player balances that trade? Don’t think of it as homework 😀Vierling is an interesting choice. He was born in STL and was drafted by the Cardinals in 2015 but apparently didn’t sign. I am torn on Fedde. I still lean on keeping him until the deadline because we are going to need some starter innings from someone besides Gray but we shall see.
The BTV’s are:
Fedde: 14.1
Vierling: 19.2Given that Brian hasn’t elected to remove my site permissions yet for taking us all down this rabbit hole, I’m going to go ahead and continue with our 2nd to last position – RF. Right field was manned by a bunch of guys in 2024. Overall though, it was a pretty terrible position for the Cards.
Here are the main RF stats from the 2024 season for all Cardinals who played that position:
OPS: .678
OAA: -11 (it doesn’t get too much worse)
FWAR: -.2 (yeah, also really terrible)Our players rated 25th best in right field compared to other MLB teams. It’s hard to fathom that 5 teams had a worse FWAR than -.2. Overall, CF was our worst position compared to other teams (28th best) but RF had the lowest FWAR. Noot actually got the most plate appearances at 234, with Burleson at 173, Walker at 171, and Carlson at 69. Some others had under 50. That’s pretty much a timeshare. Burleson led the way in OPS at .812 with Noot at .716, Walker at .637, and Carlson a dismal .355. Defensively, Nootbaar was the only plus outfielder at +1. Pham contributed -1, Carlson -2, Walker -4, and Burleson -6.
Where does that leave us for 2025? Like last season, Walker is the incumbent RF option heading into the season. If he has indeed straightened out his bat where he can provide value to the lineup, then my guess is he plays as much as possible during the reset year. His defense has significantly improved, but he’s still below average. Right now, I’d expect something like a -8 OAA if he played out there the whole season, which would be better overall than what we got in 2024. I feel less confident about his offense, but I’m going to say he hits for a .750 OPS. Honestly, the range is huge. It could be .640. And it could be .820. I’m guessing different projection systems will be all over the place on him. Assuming Walker stays healthy, then I’d just project around 75 plate appearances each for Donovan and Koperniak/Siani.
2024 RF: -3 (I’m giving it a bottom score since it was terrible offensively and defensively)
2025 RF: -1That gives the 2025 squad a +2 advantage in completely arbitrary points over the 2024 squad. I’ll try to get to DH tomorrow and then we’ll see about the pitchers.
What are your thoughts TCN? Will Walker hit like 2022 or like he did at the end of 2024 or is he going to hit like everything in between that? Is -8 a fair defensive projection if he’s out there for most of the season and should that be better or worse? How much better or worse overall performance do you think the team might get from Matt Koperniak if he was given the job?
If Mo were to name his position player starters again during the winter meetings, as he did last offseason, he has Arenado at 3B and Contreras at 1B/DH.
You can’t name Donny, Noot, Walker and Burly all as corner OF’rs, so he names Noot in LF, Walker in RF.
Burly comes in to 1B/DH, and Donovan bumps Gorman from 2B, deservedly.
(Contreras and Burly will decide who is the first baseman or DH)
And then Mo has to bundle, in an effort to include everyone. He names these three promising duos of enviable depth, that he is excited to watching their future roles developing.
“timeshares”
Herrera / Pages at C
Siani / Scott CF
Walker / Gorman RFThanks for this thread J.
Maybe he could put Gorman out there as trade bait, as he did O’Neil at the time? I didn’t go there, in his “effort to include everyone”🙃
Last position to cover . . . the one that doesn’t play the field at all. Time for a quick dissection of the DH.
Hare are the main DH stats from the 2024 season for all Cardinals who took up the bat and then rested on D:
OPS: .669 (kind of disappointing really)
OAA: You guessed it, ZERO – anything else would be spectacular
FWAR: -1.1That -1.1 was the 23rd best compared to other teams at the DH position. With 2B, CF, RF, and DH all being 22nd best or worse, there’s an obvious reason this team wasn’t good. But because they were in the top 11 teams at 4 other positions, they somewhat balanced the ship. Burleson led the way with 216 plate appearances. Contreras followed suit with 121, Carpenter with 117, Herrera had 30, Baker 29, Arenado 24, and 34 PA’s went to everyone else. This has been the Cardinals modis of operations for a few seasons now – let the DH be a place to rest everyday players (or as a way to get Burleson out of the outfield when they could do that). On the OPS front, Herrera led the way with a .949, Contreras was at .722, Burleson at .721, Baker at .685, Carpenter at .634, and Arenado had an ugly .439.
Where does that leave us for 2025? I think the team is going to use a more constant DH presence in 2024 and I believe that will be Contreras. Whenever a left-handed starter is on the mound, Contreras will play 1B. Otherwise, he’s the DH. That strategy keeps Contreras more likely to be healthy and in the middle of the lineup. It also lets our young catchers (Herrera and Pages) catch so we can make a determination on what to do with Crooks and Bernal in the future. This should equate to much better numbers from the 2025 DH position than what we got in 2024. The other at bats will likely be given to guys needing an off-day from the field or to Baker or Koperniak if indeed either is on the bench. It’s possible Gorman gets a fair share of at-bats here in the scenario where Arenado stays and Gorman doesn’t have a position. But for my purposes here, I’m going to project most at-bats going to Contreras.
2024 DH: -2
2025 DH: +2That extra 4 points gives the 2025 squad a +6 advantage over the 2024 squad in my completely arbitrary points. Before I move to pitching though, I need to factor in injuries. 2025 will not actually have as many of the incumbents take as many at bats at their respective positions that I projected just like 2024 didn’t. Guys get hurt and someone else is forced to cover. I built a little bit of that in, but not enough. I’m going to take 5 points away from my total above to account for injuries. Now we’re at +1. Just slightly better than the 2024 squad on offense and in the field. That seems fair to me and is about what I’m expecting.
What are your thoughts TCN? Is Contreras going to be the main DH or do you believe he’s going to primarily play 1B? Will Baker or Koperniak even make the team? What will Gorman’s role be if Arenado isn’t traded?
If Arenado is still here, it would make sense to let him dh quite a bit so we can find out if Gorman can play 3B every day at the ML level. They don’t need to just use DH as a dumping ground for misfits. They’ve got 1B for that. Of course, if Gorman can’t hit it doesn’t matter.
I agree Bling, if Arenado is still here, Mo could have Contreras, Burly, Gorman and Walker covering 1B, DH & RF.
I know Walker/Gorman in RF isn’t the best case for the FO, and they probably wouldn’t want to even speak of it, but today that’s where the board is. Both needed demoted. Both need to earn playing time without the everyday role of starter attached. Timeshare.
Gorman can play corner OF just as good as Walker, and I’ve never seen Nolan out there. Book it.
Gorman can also handle 3B & 2B. You also cant sell me on the outfielder Burly being better at 1B, than than the corner infielder Gorman.
That’s five positions Gorman could start at, as a bench / utility player, DH would be six. If the elephant in the room gets traded, Gorman has a position. Until then….
If the starting point of next seasons bench is having a backup catcher, SS and centerfielder, I’d feel confident in Gorman as a starter at the other positions defensively, in a utility role.
Transitioning from 3B to 2B is difficult at every level. Middle infield footwork is very demanding. Many players need to head the other direction on the defensive spectrum, than Nolan did.
For me, its possible Nolan is the best 1B on the roster today, but we have many 1B/DH choices on hand to sort thru. The FO has results to justify Nolan in a utility role, if they choose to. I don’t have to squint to see additional D value that Gorman could bring to the roster, while Arenado is at third base.
I had at least been happy that the bench would have to be better than Carp, Crawford and Carlson. But then I realized whoever it is will be guys they think they have to play regularly, which adds another layer to the madness.
Gorman and Walker need to produce. Not sure which level Scott and Pages will be at. Were both ready to be up? Or did injury force it?
Onto the pitching. I’m going to do all the starters together and all the relievers together just because I’m lazy and I don’t want this to go on forever. And it doesn’t need to because really this was just a bridge to free agency. We should have more to discuss in the near future.
The Cardinals starting pitchers in 2024 had:
XFIP: 3.91
FWAR: 11.6The Cardinals used 11 starting pitchers. Of all teams in baseball, that was the 8th best XFIP and the 14th most FWAR. Overall, middle of the pack. ERA was 20th though at 4.33. The 5 best in XFIP were Gray (2.82), McGreevey (3.05), Pallante (3.82), Mikolas (4.08), and Gibson (4.19). Thompson was last at near 5.00 with Matz just a hair better. Batting Average on Balls in Play suggests that Matz was a little unlucky and that McGreevey & Thompson were a little lucky. For WAR, Gray was the only standout starter at 3.8. Mikolas was 2nd at 2.0, Pallante 1.9 (remember he was in the bullpen half the year), Gibson 1.5, Lynn 1.3, Fedde .8 (that’s just his Cardinal’s total), McGreevey .5, Matz .1, and Thompson -.3. Graceffo and Liberatore were both at 0.
Where does that leave us for 2025? The team lost some depth with Gibson and Lynn leaving. However, given that neither was all that good, it may actually be a positive. Pallante came on strong in the 2nd half and often looked like the team’s best pitcher. Fedde was unremarkable, but still generally better than Lynn/Gibson. McGreevey looked really good in limited action. And Gray was outstanding. Had he not had the unfortunate home run luck, he might have been one of the best pitchers in baseball. His XFIP was only behind Chris Sale. Mikolas actually put up a decent XFIP, but he just gives up too much contact. Still, he eats innings and is good about every other start. I don’t think Matz will pick up many starts in 2025 if he’s still on the team, but he might. Overall, assuming they aren’t traded, a rotation of Gray, Pallante, Fedde, Mikolas, and McGreevey probably gets us better results than last year’s group. And with a couple other starters much closer at Memphis (Mathews, Graceffo, Hence, Robberse, Kloffenstein), this could be a really good group. Maybe even just inside the top 10 starting rotations in baseball, but certainly at least top half. If Fedde is traded, that changes the calculus some, but for now, I’m going to assume he stays.
2024 SP: 0
2025 SP: +1After the adjustment for injuries I made last week, that now puts us at +2 arbitrary points better than the 2024 team.
What are your thoughts TCN? Does McGreevey supplant Matz in the starting rotation? Is Matz even still going to be on the team? Do you feel better about this year’s rotation?
You prospect gurus have nothing to add about Scott and Pages developmental timeline?
This isn’t the first time the forum has gone crickets about their roles for 2025.
Scott was unquestionably promoted too early. Hype and injuries put him in a position he shouldn’t have been put into. He should still be a prospect and might even be a bit closer to ready had he spent a full year at Memphis. Scott was drafted in ‘22. He just had 1 full season in the minors before getting promoted to be a major league CFer. It was crazy.
I have no concerns with how they promoted Pages. He’d been in the system since 2019. He’s always been great defensively and is very mature.
It’s not Scott’s fault he works for an incompetent FO. Pages is marginal. He’s getting a chance because the FO spent years hyping a homegrown catcher who cant catch and then hiring an $85 million catcher who can’t catch. He’s a guy you want to take with you to the casino.
Statcast has a much more sophisticated measure of catcher effectiveness than simple CS%. You can review the details in the link below. The Cardinals summary from 2024:
Contreras 1 CS above average
Pages -3 CS below average
Herrera -4 CS below averageFunny how the perception-based narrative has one guy supposedly so much better than the others. The data indicates neither of the incumbents were MLB average and are not much different from one another.
More sophisticated doesn’t automatically mean better. It likely does mean more deeply absorbed in metrics and algos concocted by wonks who never owned a pair of cleats.
But no matter. I described Pages as marginal and think that is accurate. I also think the org has seen enough of Herrera behind the plate as anything other than relief for somebody else.
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