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Sorry, I should have explained. It was a reference to a veteran pitcher signing a mid-season contract to pitch only in the second half of the year. Clemens did it and I think Pedro, too, as their careers were winding down. DeWitt saves a few million by paying Wainwright for only a partial season.
Inspired by our discussion here…
My new column explores a path not many have considered: "What if the #STLCards Want Molina and Wainwright to Leave?" (free) https://t.co/IW8UvgCnU6 pic.twitter.com/m8dV07YMSo
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 13, 2021
Wainwright can be replaced internally. But the Cards might need to explore the FA market for an experienced catcher.
Maybe Ramos?If the FO is playing the long game with Yadi, waiting and hoping he signs elsewhere, they would be sitting on their hands until he signs, for simply PR and obvious monetary reasons.
Casali is off the board (SFG 1/1.5mil), Jason Castro could be next. Sit on your hands long enough and STL winds up with a negative value Wieters low hanging fruit type. At that point how does the PR look like for building a winning roster?
If / When winning becomes third fiddle behind money spent, and self-handcuffing legacy PR decisions, the FO has lost their way.
I would question whether Waino can hold up over a full season, but a half season may be interesting.
As for saving money, they’re not going to be better with Knizner and Castro or whatever combo they throw back there. If it’s about winning in 2021, you go for Yadi. If it’s about saving money for a big run at 2022+, then I can see letting him move himself on. It they just want to cheap out and that’s the way it’ll be, then it will be a rough few years for the once bright future of the Cards.
Brian, I have to say that is one of the best articles you have written. You covered some scenarios and possibilities that most fans wouldn’t consider. It was very thought provoking and provided insight into how front offices actually think and operate.
I still feel both players will be back but if not I wouldn’t mind a Knizner/Wieters pairing for a year or two until Herrera is ready. What I did not like was the Molina/Wieters pairing because it totally blocked Knizner, whom I think highly of.
Replacing Wainwright with a cheaper veteran would be very difficult because Waino’s asking price is already rather cheap based on his recent performance. Guys like Kluber, Archer, Lester, Arrieta, and Hamels are free agents but would any of them put up the same numbers Waino has put up the last two years? I doubt it.
cranny – Internally stl already knows who plan B at catcher after Yadi is, through plan E. If Ramos is B, and Castro is D, fine.
Intentionally waiting for Yadi to sign elsewhere, for PR looks, and winding up with only plan E available is what concerns me. We’ve already self-handcuffed our budget, so maybe plan E really is plan A. I guess I should consider that too. This article really promotes some scenarios to consider 🙂
Maybe Heineman is it. He had an excellent year at AAA in 2019……OPS of 1.019. And has had two short stints with the Marlins and Giants.
Thanks, gscottar, for the compliment.
You said:
Replacing Wainwright with a cheaper veteran would be very difficult because Waino’s asking price is already rather cheap based on his recent performance. Guys like Kluber, Archer, Lester, Arrieta, and Hamels are free agents but would any of them put up the same numbers Waino has put up the last two years? I doubt it.
Your assumption is not the same as mine. I assumed a cheaper backend rotation guy, not a direct Wainwright replacement and not a former Cy Young winner or a serious prior candidate – same as Molina’s assumed replacement would not be of the same skill or salary as him.
As a reminder, Wainwright was on pace to have made $10 MM last season. That is not a king’s ransom, but it would still buy a decent lottery ticket with money left over – if that became the desired approach.
As I suggested in the article, they may be able to get by without any replacement.
I understand your thoughts on Heineman being the AAA depth guy, Brain. But if this off season gets away from them,
and they can’t sign Molina, I’m afraid I’m going to have to keep Heineman in the possibility column as far perhaps being someone who can help.Your assumption is not the same as mine. I assumed a cheaper backend rotation guy, not a direct Wainwright replacement and not a former Cy Young winner or a serious prior candidate – same as Molina’s assumed replacement would not be of the same skill or salary as him.
Well I would think that the names I mentioned would be back of the rotation guys at this point in their careers but I understand what you are saying.
If the Cards were to replace Waino with someone worth $1M or someone with a minor league invite then it would be for depth only. We already have plenty of internal options to choose from for that role though.
It’s possible the Cards rotation ends up better without Waino. Flaherty, Kim, Mikolas, Carlos, Reyes, Gomber could form a very strong group. Yet of course Waino eats innings and is a good bet to be at least decent, so he allows you some certainty. That other rotation would have a lot of potential, but a lot of risk. Makes you wonder how they’d be thinking if Hudson had not been hurt.
gscottar said:
If the Cards were to replace Waino with someone worth $1M or someone with a minor league invite…
I agree with you 100%, but that isn’t what I meant, either. There is a HUGE gap between a $10 MM pitcher and a non-roster invitee. There will be some decent free agent pitchers in the vast middle who aren’t Kluber or Archer.
Or as noted, they could just go without and let this year be a time for young arms to step up. That is what I would personally prefer if Wainwright leaves, not that it matters…
JA Happ recently signed w/MIN for 1/8mil. Adam is one year older then Happ. Both threw in the same DH league last season.
Adam 65.2 IP, Happ 49.1, Adam 10 GS, Happ 9 GS. There were rumors the NYY didn’t want Happ’s option to vest with 10 GS.
If MIN paid market value, what would Adams’ one year contract amount be?
Happ is a lefty who’s missed very little time in quite some time (2017 was the only season he made fewer than 30 starts since 2013), decent peripherals and rate stats. He’s worth more than Waino, for sure.
jj asked:
If MIN paid market value, what would Adams’ one year contract amount be?
Per Fangraphs, Happ is projected to be a 1.5 WAR pitcher in 2021. Adam is at 1.2, so that would make his comparable value $6.4 MM.
I think the front office would do 1/8 if Waino would.
I don’t. I think the Cardinals are thinking more in the $5M-$6M range for Waino, if that.
A composite of Morton, Lester and JA Happ (all 36 or older last season) average 1.7 projected 2021 war, for an average signing of 9.3mil. By Adams projected 1.2 his comparable salary would be 6.6mil.
FYI, Adams IP/GS was tied for 3rd in mlb with Trevor Bauer last season. His IP/GS, QS% and GmSc averages led the vet group above.
gscottar, I am sure, BW set out the math above. But the FO needs to sell tickets and attract viewers, and The math does not factor that in.
I am not sure I understand you, bb, but I did mention ticket sales and TV ratings in the Molina article. I believe it is negligible.
The team’s plan is to sell 28% of seating capacity for at least half the season with the hope they can go to full capacity during the summer. Hope. They can fill 28% with or without either Yadi or Waino. The far bigger question is fan comfort going to games with the virus still among us.
TV ratings depend on how the team does, not individual players. An exception could be if the team is terrible, in which case the two stars might be the only reason to watch every fifth day when Waino pitches. But that is not expected.
However, if Waino announced before or during the season that this is his last year, then yes, there could be increased attention to his “farewell tour”. Knowing how his brain works, though, he would not do that. His mental focus would suffer by the distraction and at this stage of his career, he needs every tool in his arsenal.
Bottom line, I did not figure attendance and TV in, because I do not believe they would be significant in 2021 either way. Other can disagree, of course, but that is how I see it.
Another way to spin it is that any ticket sales and TV effect would be included in the “Cardinals legacy” adder that both players may get. That would be over and above the straight math comparison to other players as you noted… (though I still think that has much more to do with the positive impact on the team than on tickets and TV).
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