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Who will fill the empty spots on the roster40?
Three names that IMHO should be protected by the R5: Jordan, Rincon, SaladinOther options could be: Ugueto, Rivas, Mendlinger, Mendoza, Hansen, Rajcic, Love, Clemente
It is too late to add players for Rule 5 protection. That was Monday. But we can now participate in the draft.
Who will fill the empty spots on the roster40?
Three names that IMHO should be protected by the R5: Jordan, Rincon, SaladinThe date to finalize protection for the Rule 5 has already passed. The only way you can add people now is if you trade for them.
I forgot, my bad.
So why not free up some slots before to protect them?
Is the FO not interested in them? Or do they think no one wants to take them?
The risk is high for pitchers who might end up at the bottom of some bullpen.
For position players, the risk is low, but I wouldn’t expose someone like Blaze Jordan to that risk.
Unless I was wrong in classifying him as a potential R5.Louis, with only a “4 man bench” now days, it’s a lot easier for a team to have the last BP arm on the team vs having a 1B/DH type on the 26 man.
I really hope I’m right on this one to see what he can do after settling in with the organization for a full season in 2026.Side note: Really hope they can keep Pozo around, he was a great backup catcher and seemed to always be a good PH when needed. A hand shake agreement perhaps?
I think Jordan, Winquest, and Rajcic are actually the 3 most likely to be taken. I kind of expect to lose Jordan although he could come back to us mid-season. Winquest has good “stuff” and someone might think they can help his control. Rajcic has a couple good pitches and has decent command of those pitches. He just really needs a couple ticks on his fastball and he would be solid.
Rincon still doesn’t have an elite fastball and he’s coming off an injury. He signed a minor league deal with the Cardinals when he could have elected free agency which has me believing that he probably is going to still be hurt at the beginning of the season. Love just isn’t special. Good slider and ok fastball. But he’s old for his level, has never pitched above AA and has a longish injury history. Someone could take him I suppose but my guess is they already have several prototypes just like him in their own organization.
It is only natural that followers of a team know their prospects much better than they know the competition in the other 29 organizations. (That certainly includes me.) This can lead to an inherent overvaluation of these known players.
I know I already made a similar point earlier when some were calling for six or seven players to be protected, but it also applies to the Rule 5 draft, IMO.
jnevel hit the nail on the head when he closed with,
“Someone could take him I suppose but my guess is they already have several prototypes just like him in their own organization.”
The remark was made in the specific context of Love, but my view is that it could be applied to any of the exposed players, none of whom appear ready to take a 40-man roster spot and immediately step into an MLB role.
I won’t be surprised if the Cardinals lose no one in the major league phase.
History is on my side. In the last 15 years, the Cards had just four players selected in that phase and just one since 2019 (Connor Thomas last year). In almost a quarter century, going all the way back to 2002, the Cards lost exactly one position player in the ML phase. If anything, pitchers are the ones taken, but even that is not as common as no one being selected.
Because there are no associated penalties, the minor league phase is another story entirely. But that is a different, though related topic.
I really like Rincon and Loves stuff. Both have good movement on their fastballs hitting 94~95, and plus sliders. Rincon has improved his strikeout rate, and Love improved greatly as many thought he would as a reliever. I think there is a good chance to lose both in the draft.
I think an odd anomaly is that we lost 2 pitchers named Luis Perdomo in Rule 5. Almost identical situations. Bith in A ball.
The elder Perdomo went on to log a negative 1.3 bWAR in 78 MLB innings.
His younger cousin had a much longer career, with 468 innings, but also had a negative bWAR (-0.9). He was done in MLB at age 29 (or they were done with him).Lin, Rajcic, Gastelum, Mathews, and the other Baez will be Rule 5 eligible this November. I also like Mendoza replacing Urias next year. Love and Rincon are eligible as well, but at this point unlikely to be added to the 40 man roster. I believe Urias and May will be free agents. Romero or Nootbaar could traded along with May being dealt.
I’d add Winquest and Cho to that list of Rule 5 eligible players. Cho (like the other Baez) is still in high-A, but I bet he gets to AA this year. Right now I have Cho above Baez (not by much) on my 30-man prospect list.
Ixan Henderson, possibly, too, if he is ever healthy again.
Possibly Chase Davis.Who has not been mentioned who is not protected who will become eligible?
At this point I see Henderson, Jesus Baez, and Cho as most likely to be added. Lin as been inconsistent, otherwise he might be on this list too.
Maybe Hancel Rincon, though probably not. Or Randel Clemente. Since June 26, he’s fanned 30 in 15.2 ip at AA, giving up just 2 runs, both in the same outing. He’s walked 12, which is less than ideal. But that’s a lot of k’s.
Odds are high that Bloom’s first Rule 5 will not be until December 2027. The 2026 version will be one of the first events canceled when the lockout starts.
Do you think teams count on that and just don’t add any prospects to the 40 man since it won’t matter? Seems like realistically that is the smartest option for the team so they don’t have to clog up the 40 man.
Perhaps, as long as teams know there will a grace period to clean rosters up if the Rule 5 is slotted later than December, rather than canceled completely. (As a reminder, there was no Rule 5 in 2021.)
IMO, the real reason to not add players in November is that during the lockout, all 40-man players are locked out and contact between players and teams is prohibited. However, minor leaguers not on the 40-man will continue to work as usual. Their contract is offset by several years.
This is a big deal for player development in the off-season but even bigger if MLB regular season games are canceled. MiLB will continue as usual, but with a twist. Likely 10-12 players at each level will be assigned above their normal level. The first group would be Springfield players needed to replace the locked out 40-man players who would normally be at Memphis. The others are dominoes. From a negative situation, opportunity is created for others.
Is Jurrangelo Cijntje and Tai Peete eligible for this years Rule 5? If so, protecting them would be wise!
I love the dynamics of this years Rule 5 with not knowing if it even transpires! Brian’s reminder that 40-man roster players will not be able to participate in any team practice or training can really make a difference in many of these young players lives. I imagine that the staff will have some serious planning meetings before the deadline to submit the 40-man roster, considering the uncertainty of the off season this year. Fun stuff to consider!
cf64 asked:
Is Jurrangelo Cijntje and Tai Peete eligible for this years Rule 5? If so, protecting them would be wise!
No, they both have another year.
They canceled the entire draft in 2021. My assumption is they will do the same in 2026, but it is not guaranteed. There is a lot of prep work in setting special rosters in advance of Rule 5 that they probably won’t want to deal with. Further, the draft is held at the Winter Meetings, which they also will not have if there is a lockout.
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