July 4, 2019 at 11:57 am #96809
I still think Arozarena was the right call, as counting stats still mean something when all is said and done. If WAR for minor leaguers was a thing, I’m fairly sure he would have had a higher one than Nogowski in June.
The Fagalde snub wasn’t really defensible from any position. There ought to be an inquiry. Don’t be surprised if this puts a permanent chip on Alexander the Great’s shoulder that propels him to future MLB stardom.July 4, 2019 at 12:18 pm #96813
Well, the way I see it, if counting stats were the best way to compare players, they wouldn’t have a batting champion each season. They would crown the hits leader. Same with ERA champion vs. fewest runs allowed on the pitching side.
Rate stats – June
Edge Arozarena – SLG (barely)
Edge Nogowski – BA, OBP, OPS, walk rate, strikeout rate
Counting stats – June
Edge Arozarena – hits, runs, home runs, steals, walks (good), strikeouts (bad)
Edge Nogowski – doubles, RBIJuly 4, 2019 at 10:29 pm #96915
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Just thought of this as well. Fagalde pitched 2 levels above Seijas.July 7, 2019 at 2:14 pm #97233
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Nice shout out by Memphis announcer who said the Cardinals announced Nogowski as player of the month. I was watching a replay of a July 1st broadcast. Sorry they didn’t give credit to The Cardinal Nation.August 2, 2019 at 9:48 am #100616August 2, 2019 at 9:55 am #100617
Last month, counting stats and placement didn’t mean anything. This month they did. Hmm. Perhaps Donovan should lodge a complaint. 🧐
Also, poor Arozarena. Always the bridesmaid…August 2, 2019 at 10:00 am #100619
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Wow. I thought Arozarena would get it. YGonzalez is one of our most underrated prospects. He just hits and is versatile, I’m sure he even has a catcher’s mitt somewhere.
I’ve liked his performance for some time now and wondered why his progress (promotion-wise) was stalled for a while. Seeing him succeed at AA has been fun to watch. I’m very happy that Yariel has gotten some recognition. Great call.August 2, 2019 at 10:25 am #100627
stlcard25, you are confusing Derek’s criteria with mine. I don’t force my opinions on him and vice-versa. He chose to take Player of the Month for July and made his selection. I will make the Pitcher choice (to be shared on Saturday) using my own criteria.
If the numbers are close (and I have not analyzed them in detail), the organization will likely pick Arozarena (the better prospect) because that is what they consistently do. But Gonzalez’ 30 RBI in 27 games really stand out to me.August 2, 2019 at 10:29 am #100628
Brian, that’s fair. I didn’t know that you alternated like that.
Apart from that, I had to give you a ribbing after our back and forth last month. It’s good to have several good options for prospects playing well now.August 2, 2019 at 10:32 am #100630
And the discussion is healthy and of substance. I wish all the give and take here could be that way.August 2, 2019 at 10:32 am #100631
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I don’t see how Randy could have had a better month. He put up some video game numbers.
Nothing against Gonzalez though. He had a very good month too.
August 2, 2019 at 10:40 am #100633
- This reply was modified 4 months ago by gscottar.
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Arozarena had an outstanding month, but the separator for me was run production. As Brian mentioned, Gonzalez had the upper-hand by a wide margin in that department. Donovan also had a dynamic month not to be overlooked.August 2, 2019 at 11:19 am #100640
Angel Rodon with another great outing, how is this guy not getting more national recognition? Only 21 in AA, averaging a K per nine this year, ERA under 3 in roughly a half a season there, walks are a little high, but the WHIP is very good. All of the things I’ve just mentioned, also mirror his overall stats throughout the minors.
Am I missing something with him not getting the deserved recognition? Those numbers should have him in the top 100 I would think. There are highly ranked prospects, with worse numbers, that are older and/or at a lower level. It’s not like this is a one year blimp on the radar for him.
Something close to the same argument can be made for Ivan Herrera…..August 2, 2019 at 3:00 pm #100668August 2, 2019 at 4:24 pm #100672
Arozarena had an outstanding month, but the separator for me was run production.
That’s a fair criterion. I felt last month that Arozarena outpaced Nogowski due to his superior counting stats. Brian disagreed, which was fine. This month the 100 points of OPS narrowed up the field but can’t really complain going with any of the three that you mentioned.August 2, 2019 at 5:42 pm #100676
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While I understand using run production as a separator, did you consider that Gonzalez hit 3rd to 7th in the order while Arozarena was hitting leadoff. That will make quite a difference. Although, Gonzalez was making more contact and struck out less.August 2, 2019 at 5:54 pm #100679
I looked after the fact, earlier today, and was satisfied with this comparison, which takes into account both roles:
Arozrena had a hand in 36 runs (22 scored and 14 driven in) in 26 games.
Gonzalez impacted 45 runs (15 scored and 30 driven in) over 27 games.
Even if you factor out double-counting for home runs, Gonzalez’ edge is 38 to 33.August 2, 2019 at 6:02 pm #100680
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Runs scored also depends on the players hitting after a player. It is like Matt Carpenter when he is hitting leadoff. He never drives in a lot of runs but the number of runs he scores is dependent on the batters hitting behind him in the order.
Just for clarity, I am not disputing the selection. Just pointing out a few things that need to be considered.August 2, 2019 at 6:46 pm #100686
Well, they are being considered. You may just be considering them differently. 😉
For what it is worth, in a given season, there are always more runs scored than RBI, making the latter scarcer. But your point is opportunity. Generally, a leadoff man has more chances to score and a middle of the lineup guy has a better chance to drive in runs. Even in his best seasons, Carpenter always scored more runs than he drove in.
When I did the Player of the Month for April, I used Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). I could do that since month and year to date were the same then. As far as I can tell, Fangraphs does not offer monthly splits, however. For several years, I have also used wRC+ for my full-season awards comparing players across the system. But the rub there is that FG does not provide a consolidated wRC+ number for players at multiple levels.
For the season at their current levels, Gonzalez’ wRC+ is 144 and Arozarena’s is 154 – but again, that is more than just July. As folks may recall, Randy was also the organization’s Player of the Month in June, so that contributes to his higher season wRC+ at Memphis. On the other hand, Gonzalez did not have a good June, though much of it was not at Springfield.
Anyway, it seems like run production has been fully explored. Either you buy it or you hopefully have a better idea how to assess the players. I know where you have questions, but don’t know where you actually stand on the matter.
August 2, 2019 at 7:20 pm #100688
- This reply was modified 4 months ago by Brian Walton.
Fangraphs doesn’t provide splits in the sense that you can go to one page and see each month, but if you go to “Game Logs” on a player page, you can find wRC+ by player by selecting a date range and choosing “Advanced”. In this case, Arozarena was at 159 in July, Gonzalez at 178, and Donovan at 228. Dylan Carlson, who was also mentioned, was at 170.August 2, 2019 at 8:56 pm #100691
Thank you, stlcard25. I wish there was a way to view everyone together by month, but this is a good approach to compare a short list of candidates.
Between the two, Gonzalez is a deserving winner, though the door is wide open for a Donovan appeal.
Given your ongoing interest in June, I tested your instructions by pulling the wRC+ measures for Nogowski (170) and Arozarena (171) that month – a photo finish. Seems fitting one won our award and the other the organization’s award – if you believe in wRC+, that is!August 2, 2019 at 10:18 pm #100695
Given your ongoing interest in June, I tested your instructions by pulling the wRC+ measures for Nogowski (170) and Arozarena (171) that month – a photo finish. Seems fitting one won our award and the other the organization’s award – if you believe in wRC+, that is!
I will cede that point…it was a dead heat. I guess we at TCN like to think a little outside the typical organization box anyway, so Nogowski was a progressive choice!August 3, 2019 at 9:06 am #100723
You may know Johnson City's Michael YaSenka is the consensus July Pitcher of the Month across the #stlcards system, but you can compare his results to other top pitchers at The Cardinal Nation, including some new names from overseas to watch. https://t.co/UMatqcwSHI pic.twitter.com/bzZN3T7avH
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) August 3, 2019August 3, 2019 at 11:58 am #100740
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Gustavo J. Rodriguez’ numbers were better than YaSenka’s numbers all across the board. Clearly, Gus Rodriguez was penalized for being in the DSL instead of somewhere stateside, like the Appalachian League…???August 3, 2019 at 12:17 pm #100741
As the article says:
As is often the case, those in the “complex leagues”, the Dominican Summer and Gulf Coast Leagues, sport some players with flashy results. Admittedly, they have a tougher time winning these monthly awards, unless their numbers dominate those pitching at higher levels.
Both Rodriguez’ and YaSenka’s numbers were exceptional.
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