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I agree there could be several stats-based AZ league alignments generated, but I doubt it would happen. (More wild cards would help, as you noted, and be less controversial.)
On the other point, the question could be whether AZ/FL regular season games in October and November would draw enough eyeballs against football to look better financially than however much home revenue they could grab by playing 15 dates at home in October, for example.
I don’t think you can play regular season games in December under any circumstances, especially with plans for an expanded playoff format. It has been pretty much assumed they would have to be somewhere warm, anyway.
As I wrote, I think a mid-season transition back home would be very difficult (at best) to pull off, but the money difference to owners could be significant enough for them to want to try it.
Lotsa questions…
I don’t think you can play regular season games in December under any circumstances, especially with plans for an expanded playoff format
I agree with that. To clarify I meant the playoffs could be pushed to the middle of December.
Would I be correct in assuming that should this plan come about there would be NO minor leagues this year only expanded major league rosters? That would not be good for the game. To be honest I just don’t see this idea coming into play. Just too many bad points – no fans, no revenue, TV money only, quarantine entire teams and officials, league alignments. To me it just seems to be like trying to fit a square peg in a round hole just to say it could be done and then finding out that it can’t.
No, I’ve seen no firm comments about the minors one way or another. If you could allow a larger bubble, you could have minor leaguers playing on the back fields. Playing in 160 more cities by August is another matter entirely.
Brian, what percent chance would you assign to this plan to be put in operation this season.
At this point mine is ZERO.
Others may want to chime in.On playing the minors in the back fields I just can’t see quarantining them too. But who knows.
I don’t really feel comfortable predicting something that is based on the virus being contained enough to allow it. Far above my pay grade. One month ago, the Cardinals were still playing games. Now we have to guess if baseball could be played in a controlled environment in three or four months from now? OK, I will say five percent.
Well, had I read this first, I might also have guessed zero!
Sources who spoke to @NBCNews say the different contingency plans to start the 2020 baseball season during the coronavirus pandemic are shortsighted at best: “We’re in the pregame stretch with any of these ideas. We’re not even close to the first inning.” https://t.co/6PlhHz9GT7
— NBC News (@NBCNews) April 11, 2020
I didn’t myself very clear Brian. I was asking what chance one saw that the Arizona/Florida plan would come to be. I give that zero but I am with you on about 5 percent that any baseball will be played this season. The NFL may have a better chance since they play later. The NBA I haven’t payed attention to in years so I won’t even guess on them.
How about ‘virtual baseball’ like NASCAR has virtual racing and it is actually working. But rather than 40 or so players baseball would need somewhere around 900 players playing from home. That could bet complicated….LOL
Three scenarios for how Minor League Baseball might proceed in 2020 – and the longer-term implications. (free) https://t.co/khOmmZDwai pic.twitter.com/7yjtnCx2xe
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) April 12, 2020
Per @JeffPassan, MLB may be facing an "Arizona or bust" scenario when it comes to starting the season.https://t.co/ymxhq83OIl
— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) April 13, 2020
How about ‘virtual baseball’ like NASCAR has virtual racing and it is actually working.
I don’t know how well it’s working for NASCAR. They just suspended a guy for using a racial slur during one of those races. You might find out some things about your favorite players you may not like.
He did not have to go very far out on the limb…
.@markasaxon says on @StalterRivers that he's pessimistic about baseball returning before July. #STLCards
PODCAST: https://t.co/IMSSIBjXR8
— 101 ESPN St. Louis (@101espn) April 13, 2020
But rather than 40 or so players baseball would need somewhere around 900 players playing from home.
You didn’t quote me far enough 858. Above is quoted the next sentence and probably the reason that virtual baseball is not to be……….but I admit it could be interesting to have a couple of different teams take a whirl at it every weekend. Might keep them limbered up…..LOL
I heard a portion of the Passan Article. It seems it very well may be Arizona or bust. I think MLB caught a lot of flack for the May start up idea and backtracked but I think this has been the plan all along. Start in Arizona for ST and Regular Season and then have the teams play in empty stadiums upon returning home when it’s safe for the rest of the year. That was the other thing I heard as well. No fans will be allowed.
Manfred did a live interview this morning on FOX Business. Reiterated health concerns are first. No timeframe discussed.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/sports/mlb-return-contingent-major-thing-rob-manfred-says
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, endorses an approach for sports teams to begin play that seems similar to MLB’s Arizona Plan. “Nobody comes to the stadium. Put them in big hotels, wherever you want to play. Keep them very well surveilled,” he said. “Have them tested every single week and make sure they don’t wind up infecting each other or their family, and just let them play the season out.”
Manfred did an interview with the AP. “I think it’s incumbent upon us to turn over every stone to try to play the game in 2020 if there’s any way we can in the environment,” he said. The commissioner notes that 40% of MLB revenue comes from gate and gate-related areas and he expects further salary-related negotiations with the MLBPA before playing.
Arizona’s governor is open to holding the MLB season in Phoenix…
Ducey open to Arizona hosting post-pandemic MLB season https://t.co/Hidw3y4IWF via @azcentral @nickpiecoro
— Chris Coppola (@chris_coppola) April 14, 2020
I think by July we will see things returning to a new normal – still not wide open, but not a full scale quarantine. Seems the best option is to work on a July 1-15, somewhere in there, start date, with maybe a 100 games schedule that includes the old fashioned 2-for-1 double-headers. Maybe they could play in their regular ball parks by then, although a lot of precautions would need to be taken where you limit the tickets sold and keep seating spread out, among other things. Probably need to stretch the post season into November, although as everyone here knows I hate games that count being played in March or November.
But this year there will need to be a lot of give and take.
What would be the benefit in trying to move back into home stadiums midway through this season if they are going to be empty either way?
L.A. may hold off on approving concerts or other large gatherings for at least a year, Garcetti told high-level city staffers this week. W/@palewire, https://t.co/F9jOUcuVWR
— Dakota Smith (@dakotacdsmith) April 15, 2020
That is what I have been saying. If they start in Arizona then they should finish in Arizona. An empty ballpark is an empty ballpark no matter how many seats it holds.
That is what I have been saying. If they start in Arizona then they should finish in Arizona. An empty ballpark is an empty ballpark no matter how many seats it holds
The players with families won’t go for it. One of the main concerns is that the player polled recently almost all of them don’t want to be away from their families for 3-4 months being quarrentined. If they resume with an abbreviated ST in Arizona and start the season there (say 6 weeks) they could be able to transition back to there cities for the most part and be back with their families. Sure it would be tough monitoring players practicing social distancing away from AZ but at this point you know that this might not be contained for quite a bit. So it you get antsy you already know the risks.
The LA Times article is banning large gathering of people like music festivals,beer festivals ect…Santa Anita Racetrack is set to meet with The LA Dept of Public Health this week to show a proposal on how they think they can begin practicing and racing with no fans and keep the jockeys and trainers safe. Granted the horses drop like flies up there but this is people related.
I don’t think we’ll see any fans in the stands for any sporting events for quite a long time. The football fanatics might jump off a cliff over that one.
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