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In other words, I would give the odds of a February hearing to be about 99%.
Correct. If Flaherty wouldn’t even accept his league minimum assigned salary the last couple of years there is no way he is going to cut a deal on an arbitration salary.
Interesting piece of trivia, though one should realize the comparative population is relatively small.
Jordan Hicks $862,500 settlement makes him the highest paid first-time arbitration eligible pitcher in history not to pitch in his platform year. Surpassed Chris Ray from 2008.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 16, 2021
I expect Flaherty to win his arb case. He falls in a comp class with Keller, Giolito and Castillo, imo.
service time: best match Keller
3.000 Keller
3.006 Flaherty
3.080 Giolito
3.101 CastilloCareer IP: best match Keller
360 Keller
409 Flaherty
489 Giolito
519 CastilloCareer ERA: best match Keller
3.37 Flaherty
3.50 Keller
3.62 Castillo
4.44 Giolito
Here’s where the AL DH difference comes into play for Keller and Giolito. If the arbitrator is presented with ERA+, and is willing to acknowledge it….Career ERA+: best match Castillo
131 Keller
124 Castillo
122 Flaherty
099 GiolitoW/L %: best match Giolito (I know, but arbitrators understand wins and losses, not sabre stats)
.517 Giolito
.511 Flaherty
.492 Castillo
.477 KellerCareer Whip: best match Castillo (DH influence again)
1.073 Flaherty
1.168 Castillo
1.227 Giolito
1.285 Keller2021 Salary:
3.35mil Keller (avoid arbitration)
4.15mil Giolito (avoided)
4.20mil Castillo (avoided)Flahertys’ service time, IP and ERA all best match Keller. Giolito and Castillo have substantially more service time and IP, leading to higher salaries than Keller. What I believe the deciding factor for Flaherty winning his arb hearing is his league awards.
Career Awards:
Keller – none
Castillo – ROY-8, AS
Giolito – AS, CYA-6, CYA-7
Flaherty – ROY-5, CYA-4, MVP-13Bernie basically outlines what we have talked about on here numerous times.
I haven’t read the article yet (I will) but which team in a comparable position has ever “played it straight with the fans”? (When I say “comparable position”, I mean good enough to win the division but not a World Series contender.)
That sounds really good, but is not realistic.
For the Cardinals to say that, it would not only potentially hurt their revenue in 2021, it could put them on the spot to make promises for 2022 that they don’t want to make, I bet.
Besides, they have already said the payroll will be down. We just don’t know how much. They released their leadoff man and best defender for one reason alone – to save money, which they readily admitted. DeWitt already said they will let Yadi and Waino walk if they don’t like their offers. The Cards have not said they are spending on anyone else.
So what more do they need to say for fans to understand what is going on? It is not like anyone who has been paying attention can say they are being misled… I just don’t get the demand for a public apology/explanation for what is clear as can be.
Bringing this over from the Pirates thread (they are allergic to payroll), we have gscottar commenting on the Cardinals having under $50M committed to non-arb guys for 2022 and predicting that if the Cards have a payroll under $100M, the fans would revolt.
BW commented that he predicts the Cards will try to lock up their next core players and supplement with smaller free agent deals to outfit the team. Then they could say that they spent money. He says the Cards don’t care about fan angst until fans stay home.
Thoughts about this? There’s certainly likely to be a lot of flexibility in 2022, but how will it get used?
I will repeat my comments from the Pirate thread.
What young “core” player would they attempt to sign next winter? Flaherty?? Good luck with that.
Any other potential core player’s extension would be peanuts compared to the amount of payroll space they will have. The Cardinals are going to have to face the fact they are either going to have to open the checkbook on player acquisitions next winter or open the checkbook on an expanded PR Dept. to help put out the flames coming their way.
The Cards could exercise the option on Carlos’ deal if he pitches like he’s capable of. Beyond that, it’s possible that they could try to lock up Carlson or Hudson. Not sure either would be huge deals unless they front loaded them. I’d still try to blow away Flaherty with a contract if he has a normal 2021. All that would add perhaps $60M or so to the payroll if they weighted it to put the burden on 2022.
Flaherty would not take it, but the Cards will let leak out that they tried and it was rejected. There are players who could emerge in 2021.For example, Hicks and Reyes are two others beyond those mentioned by 25.
First MLB will have to go back to giving extension to their own non-FA’s. There’s currently about an 11 month drought of said extensions.
On the even bigger picture, will there be any contract activity across the game next fall with the new CBA being under negotiation? Why would anyone (owners or players) make commitments without knowing the rules that will govern the contracts? Literally everything could grind to a halt once the 2021 playoffs conclude. (Another prediction, I guess…)
Plus let’s remember that player acquisitions next winter doesn’t have to mean getting in a spending war on free agents. Trades could be another venue, which is more of the Cardinal way.
The lack of a CBA could affect everything.
For example, if I am acquiring a young player (or trading him), I am going to want to know how many more years of control he has until free agency – and how his contact value will be decided in the interim… Also, what compensation I would receive if he leaves as a free agent.
Assuming today’s rules will just continue could be a mistake, as the players want change. And if the CBA changes are dramatic enough, it could require the Cardinals to adjust their acquisition strategies.
Brian:
Thanks for that explanation on the Cardinals’ spending intentions, which they have made crystal clear. I have been saying the same thing for months but no one listens to me…probably wise.
There are several reasons/excuses that might try to be used for limited spending next winter but none are that legitimate in my opinion.
1. They will instead spend on internal extensions.
Flaherty won’t sign.
Hudson will be coming off of TJ surgery.
Hicks will be one season removed from TJ and locking up closers is not normal for us.
Reyes has done nothing to warrant an extension unless he has a massive 2021.
Bader? I don’t see it.
O’Neill? I don’t see it.
Knizner? I don’t see it.
Edman. Maybe but it would be team friendly.
Carlson. Ditto above.
Actually if any of those guys minus Flaherty signed an extension it would be of the team friendly variety like DeJong did. Peanuts compared to the payroll space we will have.2. Too much competition by other teams.
Too bad. Our front office is paid to win one of these acquisitions occasionally instead of coming in second. They have a job to do so do it. Also, trades are available if free agency doesn’t work.3. Covid Concerns.
Nope. I have zero doubts there will be full attendance and full revenue by 2022, probably by the 2021 postseason.4. CBA Concerns.
Maybe but eventually a CBA will be signed, whether it is December 2021 or months later and when it happens all of that payroll flexibility will still be there waiting on the Cardinals.The Cardinals really have no legitimate way out of this. They will either make some big acquisitions next offseason or face the heat. There are no excuses. We are usually top 10 in payroll. We are currently 13th. If we drop closer to 20th by 2022 there will be questions to answer.
gscottar, your post is very detailed and reflects the fact that some folks like you (and me) dig into the details. However, Joe Average Fan does not. He doesn’t care about payroll. He cares about winning baseball.
The most important factor has not been mentioned – how the 2021 team will perform.
An implied assumption in the above is that 2021 will be a lot like 2020 – so-so. And that is surely a fair guess.
But what if the young players emerge this season and the Cardinals are much better than expected? That is also a possible scenario, especially in a weak division. In this case, there won’t be general fan pressure to spend large amounts of money next winter.
If we win a weakened division with 85 wins then get knocked out in the first round of the playoffs, which is possible, I don’t know if that will buy the organization enough good will to go cheap next offseason. I doubt it.
Joe Average Fan will would also be able to see that the Carpenter, CMart, Miller and Fowler contracts are not returning (if that scenario plays out), on top of the expected reduced payroll in 2021, when they were here.
The local media will not let STL’s payroll flexibility for 2022 go unnoticed, even by the most casual fan.
I am sure it will be talked about. The question as I see it is how many people will care enough to stop buying tickets, watching games on TV, etc. if the team doesn’t spend “enough”, however that is defined by each fan.
Good question as to if there is a magic number of wins in the regular season or playoffs that would get them “off the hook”. What if they win 90 and make it to the second round? Who knows? It is going to be an individual call.
My take when coming at it was that if young players step up at the potential open positions – SP, 3B, C and OF specifically, they won’t need to make big signings and wouldn’t have a place to play them.
As far as Carpenter, Fowler and the others coming off the books, I truly believe the average fan is more concerned about getting them out of the lineup and better players replacing them vs. how much of their salaries are spent on their replacements. But I could be wrong about that.
I get this is all theoretical, but the organization’s strategy is to develop players and only go external to fill gaps. So what will the gaps be in 12 months that will not have good internal candidates? That is how I look at the problem, rather than setting a $ target first, like so many millions or what comparable rank in MLB payrolls they are.
For myself, I will always watch the games even if they only win 70 games or 60. I’m a Cardinal fan and you take good with the bad with the good. The next couple of years will be lean. @021 obviously but people think that with all the money off the books that Junior will bring in all kinds of big talent for 2022. Not going to happen, kids. They’ll add a couple of average to above average players. Will they help? Yes. Will it win the World Series? No. Junior has made it clear and he says the same thing each off season so there should be little griping from fans. “We will field a competitive team that will be in line for a playoff spot every year.” That’s what they do. Now, granted they missed in 16, 17 and 18 but they were there and with a push could have slipped in the playoffs. It just didn’t happen. As to signing big names and acquiring all-star talent (Goldschmidt aside) it’s not going to happen. And Junior will not feel any “heat”, Cardinal fans will come back at 3.4 mil as soon as the gates are open. They love their baseball no matter what the Cardinals do or don’t do in the off-season. Only media people around town and people on this forum think the fans will take it out on Junior if he doesn’t go all in for 2022. Junior will besmiling and counting his money with a low payroll and millions of fans gnashing their teeth to go through those turn styles. The next several years will be a time of glorious mediocrity. Competitive but not dominating, respectable but not good, entertaining but not captivating. Welcome to the future.
As of now, the Cards have around $136M committed to 2021 before resigning Yadi. Next year they will have about $86M committed to the non-arb players. Now, I tended to estimate a bit high for the arb players, but even with adding Arenado at $35M and some very generous arb estimates, payroll would be around $125M for 2022. That includes allowing Carlos to walk. Total salary could be as low as $110M depending on how the arb guys go.
So even then, the Cards should have flexibility to enter the free agent market or look to swing another trade for a guy who’s making good money, if they so choose. OF would be the logical place to search then.
The starting rotation could need some help next year, as well. We could be losing Waino, Kim and CMart. In addition, until Mikolas shows he’s healthy, he could be in line for some elbow repair and rehab.
Reyes could step up and take 1 spot. Thompson and Liberatore could prove to be ready. Oviedo could also prove he’s ready. However, that’s 4 young, unproven starting pitchers in a competitive team.
Not four 2020 openings as I see it. Flaherty and Hudson will still be there. I see no reason Mikolas won’t be fine, too.
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