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So basically another layer of complication stacked on top of so many others to sort out before MLB can resume play in just five months from now. And many of them, like this one, are totally moving targets.
This is where we are as of today. I am using the arbitration estimates that Cots has.
Paul Goldschmidt $26.000
Matt Carpenter $18.500
Miles Mikolas $17.000
Dexter Fowler $16.500
Andrew Miller $12.000
Carlos Martinez $11.700
Paul DeJong $4.167
Kwang-hyun Kim $4.000
Jack Flaherty $2.800
John Gant $1.750
Harrison Bader $1.750
Alex Reyes $1.000
Jordan Hicks $0.925
John Brebbia $0.775
Dakota Hudson $0.600
Giovanny Gallegos$0.600
Tyler O’Neill $0.600
Tyler Webb $0.600
Tommy Edman $0.600
Ryan Helsley $0.600
Genesis Cabrera $0.600
Daniel Poncedeleon$0.600
Austin Gomber $0.600
Andrew Knizer $0.600
Dylan Carlson $0.600
Max Schrock $0.600Totals $126.07
As requsted:
Wong’s departure is just another example of the FO’s misfortune of handing out too much money on what has turned out to be poor signings and extensions. We all know that litany. Declining Wong’s option year might be an omen of what additional payroll cuts are yet to come. If they sent Wong packing will it be less of a shock to see Molina and Wainwright gone?
DeWitt and company must be seeing gloomy financial days ahead extending into next season. Any $$ they can save now can be used to “rebuild” in ’22 and as far as being competitive in ’21, let the chips fall where they may. There is still questions looming regarding next season and how C-19 will effect it. There is little reason to ante up for something so much in doubt…. will people be allowed to pay money to attend games at all? and how many? If there is little or no gate receipts what will that mean to the Cards and for that matter the rest of MLB?
How long will the pandemic linger? No one can tell us. What further damage will it create for baseball and other sports that rely on fannies in their seats?
I don’t expect great things from the ’21 edition of the Cards. The FO will go with what they have… and of those can you name one that overachieved or even matched their expectations last season? The lineup is stale. My hopes are that the new crop of prospects can succeed in rejuvenating a team in its decline. Who or what brought this on is for fans to speculate on. There may be little sense in finger-pointing at this juncture but everyone that is a true fan of the Cards is entitled to do just that… after all its their team too. What has happened to this organization?… and why? Most guys here already know what my target is.
Thanks, gscottar. So what you have shown and said already is that if we assume a 25% reduction target (which is just a guess), there is no room to add anyone, including Waino and Yadi, without moving more payroll off the books. That is a very powerful and sobering conclusion.
Ny said:
DeWitt and company must be seeing gloomy financial days ahead extending into next season. Any $$ they can save now can be used to “rebuild” in ’22 and as far as being competitive in ’21, let the chips fall where they may.
Thank for copying your detailed post here. There is a lot to discuss but I want to start with this because it touches on something I was already thinking about.
We (myself included) may be assuming that money saved (or more accurately expense avoided) in 2021 will make 2022 better. I wonder if that is the case. I sense each year’s business case may be looked at independently.
In other words, no matter how 2021 goes, they aren’t going to go back to normal spending in 2022 unless the full 2022 revenue is restored (is my theory).
I guess it could be even worse, depending on whether the Cards are covering assumed losses in 2020 and 2021 from reserves or if they are borrowing money. When does paying loans back begin and what is the impact and for how long?
If/how long the 2020 (and assumed 2021) losses will affect future years would be important to understand but very difficult if not impossible to sort out.
Another way of saying it is that no matter how 2021 goes, they aren’t going to go back to normal spending in 2022 unless the full revenue is restored.
That’s how I feel about this. This year shows us that a team could make $80M a year for 10 years, lose $100M in one year (still +$700M over 10 years) and immediately tighten the purse strings to keep themselves from losing money the next year.
On the surface, I don’t blame people for wanting to make money. It also leaves a poor taste in the mouths of people who have to put their own money on the line to support the product that the owners have been profiting on greatly for years when at the first sign of a yearly loss, said owner’s first move is to ensure that your money will be spent on a team that is mediocre and not enjoyable to watch.
I’ll also add that I think payroll will rise again for 2022 but even if there appears to be a full slate of fans on tap, it will still be below 2020 levels as they’ll probably try to make back their losses in 2020-21 for a few years.
I sense each year’s business case is looked at independently.
That would be true… in normal times.
Another way to frame it is to ask how long the 2020 (and assumed 2021) losses will affect future years. This will be important to understand but very difficult if not impossible to sort out.
Prospects are relatively low hits to the budget. Much hope should be placed on their success.
gscottar (or others), I know it is relatively small in relation to the total, but does Wong’s $1 MM buyout count against 2020 or 2021?
The first few lines of Reply 146287 is enough to make you cry. Of course we already knew it, but seeing it in “print” is a gut punch. I wonder if those who made it reality would take a 25% cut? How much deeper can they dig?
The Cardinals have had a series of decisions not work out for them. When you look at that salary list, none of the first six, and that includes Goldschmidt of course, produced enough to justify their cost. The Cardinals either overpaid for those guys in acquisitions, or mistakenly enriched them (we are talking Carpenter and Mikolas) without getting much in return – nothing in return for Mikolas’ salary in ‘20.
Then you have some good young, cheap players toiling elsewhere – lead by Alcantara and now perhaps Arozarena (maybe a lesson for the future is never trade a young player whose name begins with the letter “A” 🙂
Looks to be a combination of poor planning, with some bad luck thrown in. Now with Wong let go and this apparent pull back in the player salary budget, we could be looking at a few mediocre teams. But then you never know, whenever someone departs it is an opportunity for someone else. Maybe a couple of young guys, Sosa perhaps, maybe O’Neill or Gomber, will really step up their game and the club will remain competitive.
I think Sosa is a guy who could come on with a chance to play more.
Then you have some good young, cheap players toiling elsewhere – lead by Alcantara
Don’t forget Zac Gallen. He’s been worth more by himself than Ozuna was in his two years in St Louis. He was the real gem of the trade, in the end.
gscottar (or others), I know it is relatively small in relation to the total, but does Wong’s $1 MM buyout count against 2020 or 2021?
That is a question I have been trying to solve for years. It has never been clear to me how teams handle buy outs when counting against payroll. Obviously it is a payroll expense but when is it paid? At the time the player is let go (2020) or in the year the original salary was due to be paid (2021)?
Cots has never been clear on it either. They still show the $1M owed to Wong listed as 2021, but based on what I have seen them do before, I suspect between now and opening day they will remove that expense from the Cardinal ledger. Where does it go? I don’t know.
Take the Cubs for example. They have a $10M buyout on Jon Lester for 2021. Assuming they buy him out does that count against their 2021 payroll budget? I really don’t know.
It vanishes as an offseason expense and no-one really ever accounts for it. I’ve often wondered how it affects the luxury tax.
In other words, no matter how 2021 goes, they aren’t going to go back to normal spending in 2022 unless the full 2022 revenue is restored (is my theory).
That is probably a good assumption to operate under, but even if that is the case, the Cardinals should have payroll room in 2022 to make some significant moves.
As of right now they only have around $50M in obligations for 2022. Now that is before you add in arbitration salaries and league minimum salaries but there still should be room. Let’s say you have $20M in arbitration and $10M in league minimum salaries that would put you at $80M. Then let’s say payroll in 2022 is bumped back up to $140M. That is $60M to play with.
It vanishes as an offseason expense and no-one really ever accounts for it. I’ve often wondered how it affects the luxury tax.
The luxury tax is figured as an annual average. A ten year $250M deal will be a $25M luxury tax expense regardless if the actual salary is $15M one year and $35M the next. In theory the buyout should be a part of that $250M total but that is also kind of fuzzy to me.
Right should be part of the AAV, because the buyout is guaranteed $, but Cots never accounts for it against the cap.
I finally gave up and started calling it a offseason expense.Usually when stating contract value, the shortest term and least committed money is assumed. So the buyout money is part of the base but the last year (and its salary) is not. If that relates at all to the luxury tax calculations, I do not know.
I didn’t mean to get us too far off track. I just wondered if the $1 MM to Wong should be included in gscottar’s 2021 salary commitment table.
I didn’t mean to get us too far off track. I just wondered if the $1 MM to Wong should be included in gscottar’s 2021 salary commitment table.
I didn’t include it, because as jj mentioned, these buyouts seem to vanish between October and April so referring to it as an off-season expense is as good of an explanation as I have heard.
I have the Cards at around $100M for 2022, with the buyout for Carlos included. That should leave a little room to maneuver. Hard to say what the needs will be then, but if fans aren’t back next year, I would expect no chance that they make a run at Lindor or one of the other big stars. We would be shopping in the Dexter Fowler c. 2016 aisle once again. Looking for a mid tier guy that we can overpay and hope he doesn’t regress badly before our window is up.
OK. My understanding is the Cardinals run on a fiscal year, which runs from 11/1 through 10/31. In my own mind, I will assume Wong’s buyout applies to 2020 payroll since it was incurred yesterday. FWIW, I bet the team’s bean counters don’t excuse it from how they measure Mo’s payroll budget in whatever year it is counted.
When all is said, that is what seems to matter most. By spending that $1 MM now, is the 2021 ability to spend against budget down $1 MM or did the spending against the 2020 budget go another $1 MM over? For the team, it has to be one or the other.
If we have to give it a home, I vote to use Occam’s razor. It’s a 2021 contract, that needs to be accounted for against the 2021 budget.
OK, let’s listen to this and discuss what it means. It just a two minute clip.
What should be the expectation for the #STLCards' payroll next season? #RivsAndBK asked Cardinals team president Bill DeWitt III today.
PODCAST: https://t.co/Qp2Mva2XXu pic.twitter.com/AVIKQFTUtT
— 101 ESPN St. Louis (@101espn) October 30, 2020
OK, I will start. If the fixed commitments are between $130 and $140 not including Yadi and Waino and they want a down payroll, it doesn’t seem to close.
Take $135 as the midpoint plus $10 MM each for planning. That is $155. A small drop, but not much. And would they be willing to commit to $155 months before they know how many fans will be in attendance? They may not know that until after the fact.
I sure wish they had asked him about further cuts this winter…
The guys should have asked about 10K fans, half capacity or full capacity. Certainly sounds like the track on ability to get fans into the stands will have a big impact on the team’s ability to add anyone.
I listened to the entire segment. He said they are thinking partial capacity to open and full capacity at some point. But they have run 10 different models.
He said gate revenues are $150 MM in a typical year, some of which they got in 2020 (sponsorships).
He also predicted that a few teams will move on free agents quickly, but implied the Cardinals will not be among them. The more they see other deals, the clearer the market is.
Later in the interview, they circled back around to the money. They asked him if they add Waino and Yadi, then aren’t they at full payroll capacity? How do they get free agents to meet other needs?
The answer was trades and giving younger players more chances. He spent a lot more time on younger players and never came around to the idea of trades looking ahead.
They did talk about trades, but unfortunately looked back on Arozarena and back further to the olden days and how deals are tougher to execute now. They burned a bunch of valuable interview time near the end joking about Halloween costumes and playing hockey. I could never do radio.
Still, I am glad they did the interview and most of the discussion was good.
Today on #RivsAndBK:
– #STLCards team president Bill DeWitt III discusses Waino, Yadi & the Cards' financial outlook for '21
– @BengieMolina1 discusses Yadi's future in STL & the interest elsewhere
– Jeff Albert the key to '21 Cards?BEST OF PODCAST: https://t.co/6NTO401dHW pic.twitter.com/MwcldiFlt9
— 101 ESPN St. Louis (@101espn) October 30, 2020
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