Outfield Situation

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  • #200523
    gscottar
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    That is what I have been saying for years JJ. Signing young guys to a long term deal is a fools errand unless it is a slam dunk in favor of the team like some of the deals Atlanta has done.

    #200530
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    After a young guy signs his long term deal the writers always hold up “cost certainty!”, like it was a trophy the club just won.

    All these clubs have arb costs estimated by a dozen different scenarios, per player. It’s already baked in for next season. They are big money owners who leave no stone unturned.

    The only uncertainty is the players production.

    #200532
    1toughdominican
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    I found last night’s game to be odd. After MIL took a 2-0 lead in the visitor half of the 1st the Redbirds immediately answered back with 3 quick runs to take a 3-2 lead in the home half. My impression was that MIL was about to be served notice that they were up against a far superior team. The second inning only increased my confidence when MIL pushed 2 more runs across only to have the Redbirds quickly score to tie the game in the bottom half. The Cardinals really looked like they weren’t going to be denied a W. Then it seemed like my favorite team just scattered a gearbox coming out of a quick first turn and quit. Not at all unlike a DNF at Indy. MIL went on to hang 4 more runs on the board and the Redbirds didn’t even mount a credible threat for the final 7 innings. I hope they scratch and claw for the entire 9 in tonight’s ballgame.

    Edit; Haha…Whoops, wrong thread!
    E 1TD

    #200533
    stlcard25
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    Certain star players make sense to lock up early. In some cases the Cards have made out on the deals (Albert, Yadi, Carpenter). In others they have turned out more poorly. Rarely do those deals turn out to be bad deals…only they don’t necessarily give you a bunch of surplus value. There is wisdom in that as well.

    Still, I don’t see the Cards extending many of their young players after a few of the ones that turned out marginally.

    #200541
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    The gamble/risk is paying them early as stars, because you think they are trending towards becoming stars soon (Flaherty 2018).

    You see these deals where the club buys out the arb years but no FA years (Bader). Why bother? Could have went annually. There is no substantial savings.

    Next season is Montgomery’s walk year. This winter talk extension, about some FA years.

    There is a time for extensions, but 3,4,5 seasons before free agency? They gave PDJ an extension after his debut season when he had less than one year of service time!

    Very little surplus value to be had, but a very real risk of negative value.

    Once you start buying FA seasons, the context changes from control years to acquiring FA seasons.

    #202304
    gscottar
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    I am intrigued by DeLuzio. I am not saying he will ever be a starter but as a 4th OF I am definitely intrigued. He has a very good glove and blazing speed on the bases. The question is can he hit? I think he might have real value as an occasional starter, defensive replacement, and pinch runner. He should be in the mix next spring.

    #202389
    Brian Walton
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    DeLuzio has all his minor league options remaining so could ride the Memphis shuttle for three more years.

    #202457
    PadsFS
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    They gave PDJ an extension after his debut season when he had less than one year of service time!

    Wainwright was anything but a sure thing when he signed his 1st extension. 14-12 with a 3.70 ERA in 200 innings. Same with Molina, who hit his career-best, at the time, .275 with 6 homeruns. Jamie Garcia’s deal turned out great for ownership as did the Matt Carpenter deal.

    Good extensions:
    Albert Pujols
    Yadier Molina
    Adam Wainwright
    Jaime Garcia
    Matt Carpenter
    Kolton Wong
    Lance Lynn (could’ve went year to year)

    Poor extensions:
    Allen Craig (traded before it hurt)
    Carlos Martinez (gave 3 good years)
    Steven Piscotty (traded before it hurt)
    Paul DeJong

    They are clearly adverse to these pre-arb deals now though given Bader, O’Neill, Carlson, Flaherty, and Edman haven’t signed extensions.

    #202463
    Brian Walton
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    Carpenter and Wainwright are among those with two extensions – one good and one bad, though the bad ones were post-arbitration.

    And then there was the series of bad free agent deals that took away a lot of the benefit of the early ones given to homegrown players.

    But I get that the focus here was pre-arb deals only…

    #202465
    gscottar
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    Jamie Garcia’s deal turned out great for ownership

    Did it? My recollection was that he was hurt for at least two years of that deal. He was the precursor to Steven Matz.

    #202839
    blingboy
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    CBS Sports had an article giving their take on the Judge FA contenders this winter. This about STL:

    “The Cardinals were in the running for Juan Soto, suggesting they might have the appetite for another big-time slugger. Would they pony up for Judge? We’re skeptical.”

    #202841
    gscottar
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    No way I would pony up $300 to $400 million for Judge. Obviously he has had a magical season this year but if you look at his history there have been a lot of injuries. I am not sure he will age well.

    #202844
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    Who believes O’Neill will be ready for the post season? Not me. Hamstring injuries are always iffy, especially since he has tweaked it twice already.

    #202848
    blingboy
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    It’s only money.

    #203069
    bicyclemike
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    Judge should stay a Yankee. Some guys are just meant to be with a particular organization. Judge just fits with the Bombers. Same with Albert’s situation – he should have stayed here.

    Jason Bay years ago turned down an offer to stay in Boston, which was dumb. He was made to play there with the green monster. But guys, and their agents do not always understand that. They put the dollar amount above the intangible.

    If you have a good thing going and get a decent offer, take it.

    #203071
    1toughdominican
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    BikeMike…Judge stays dressed in pinstripes. Trout changes into Birds on the bat. You heard it here first…Haha!

    #203072
    blingboy
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    Well, we know STL is not going to outbid NYY if they want him.

    #203073
    1toughdominican
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    Bling…His buddy Albert will talk him all the way into CF at Busch Stadium…

    #203075
    GameCard
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    “They are clearly averse to these pre-arb deals now though, given Bader, O’Neill, Carlson, Flaherty, and Edman haven’t signed extensions”.

    Edman is the only one in this group that I would give an extension. Do it now.

    #203076
    GameCard
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    and maybe Carlson. I like him a lot.

    #203077
    blingboy
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    Carlson will not get a contract unless and until he develops into more than a platoon player, and then outplays the alternatives.

    #203085
    stlcard25
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    Judge would be a tremendous player here…for a few years. The end of that deal would be crippling.

    On the extension front, I agree that Carlson has some value but he needs to show a little more with the bat before we go making him a core player for 6-8 more years.

    #203087
    GameCard
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    Carlson is still a very young guy who can play all 3 OF positions and switch hit. I wouldn’t give up on him. I think a good comparison for Carlson was Andy Van Slyke who the Cardinals traded away after 4 seasons.

    #203088
    CardsFanInChiTown
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    I still think Michael Brantley (left hand bat) would be a perfect OF addition to be the 3/4 OFer. He has a .368 OBP the past 4 years with a .306 BA. Going into his age 36 season, a 1 year deal seems very realistic. Joc Pederson to simply platoon against RHSP wouldn’t be a bad option either.

    Add in a trade for someone like Beiber and the team becomes the favorite in the NLC for 2023.

    For the first time since I’ve been a major follower, I’m actually not going to advocate for a big bullpen signing.

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brantmi02.shtml

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