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Did I hear BW say Noot maybe a 4th OF next year ?! I’m pretty sure its a sin to say that.
My guess is if they bring in a slugging OF it will be a left fielder. But I do not think they will. The money/prospects will go towards a starter and maybe a catcher.
I also said I think a one-year deal with a veteran OF is possible. They need more thump in the lineup and a better hitting catcher won’t be enough. Right field is the position most likely to be open. I doubt they are giving up on O’Neill in left. For right, it would be a risk to count on the other incumbents and/or hope that Walker could skip Triple-A or breeze through there quickly.
Conforto is the guy I keep coming back to for RF. He’s coming off a missed year so he won’t cost a lot on a one year deal, and he would probably thrive hitting around Goldy and Arenado. That would give Walker another year to be fully ready, and put some pressure on O’Neill and Carlson to perform.
I also think Gorman looks better next year so that should infuse some pop into the lineup from the left hand side. Still, it would be good to have a better lineup against RHP.
Our best outfielder already plays in RF.
Nootbaar is playing really well, but let’s be realistic…we have seen this play before. I’m hopeful that he’ll be the next Carpenter as the unheralded guy who turns into a perennial star, but he could just as well be a Dejong or Grichuk or the like.
Plus, with his capability all around the OF, signing a RFer would let him play in CF a little, RF a little and even LF a little. There’s plenty of at bats to go around for the OF guys, and even more so with the DH available.
25, Oh yah, it takes at least 4 everyday outfielders to get through a season, with others contributing too, especially when O’Neill is one of the four.
I don’t buy the we’ve seen this before mindset. Noot has progressed exactly how we hope all our young guys would.
Average results when debuting, then struggled when the league adjusted in the first half (22′). His turn to adjust, and he has.
Check the second half team batting splits. See that well below avg BAbip for Noot? How about that BB/K? More walks than K’s? Those point to sustainable production.
You’re still high on Gorman but expect Noot to regress to a DeJong level? Are you throwing Donovan in this class too? “We’ve seen this before”, from you, surprises me.
You’re still high on Gorman but expect Noot to regress to a DeJong level? Are you throwing Donovan in this class too? “We’ve seen this before”, from you, surprises me.
Noot is outperforming his minors track record, which is always a red flag for me. I think there are some signals that he’s legit, which gives me some hope. I’m not of the opinion that a team with Series expectations can bank on it, though. I should add that I don’t expect anyone to regress to Dejong level. That’s more than a talent issue…PDJ is mentally shot, IMO.
Gorman has been the same at every level…I’ll begin to worry if he’s mediocre again next year. Sort of where I am with Carlson, too. I think their floor is pretty much average.
Donovan is a guy who reminds me a lot of Carpenter, and although he could be a flash in the pan…he’s been a really solid hitter at every level. The OBP plays, so long as you have the guys around him to drive him home. Right now, we seem to. Hopefully we will still next year, as well.
I think Noot has a good chance of being legit but I am worried about O’Neill and Carlson living up to expectations. It is too early to give up on them but 2023 is an important year for both of those guys. Signing a veteran OF on a short term deal makes sense but I would be hesitant to bring Dickerson back. His overall numbers have turned out good this year but a huge majority of that is based on our two trips to Wigley Field. His numbers outside the friendly confines have been subpar. I would kick the tires on Joc Pederson.
There’s no chance I would bring Dickerson back. He’s bad defensively (statcast today showed that he has the weakest arm in the majors, by far) and brings almost nothing offensively besides contact. The Cards would do better with most any of their prospects as the backup OF.
Donovan and Nootbaar have good OBP. At 25 they deserve a shot at showing this season was not a fluke. Carlson is almost 24 he regressed this year but still deserves a shot next year. Gorman is 22 and deserves a shot as well. The one I am less confident in is O’Neill. He is 27 and he seems to be injury prone.
Oliver…I thought they had some OF’er guy down in one of the affiliates who we haven’t seen in StL. yet who is supposed to be really good?
O’Neill may be the next Gant and Bader. Nearing the end of arb club control with a cheaper asset in-house.
This winter has the largest amount of arb players that I can ever remember StL having. We just picked up two more in Montgomery and Stratton. I’m counting 12 players without knowing if anyone makes it as a super2.
I’ve been thinking the same about O’Neill. The .300 OBP is a killer anywhere but well down in the order. Like I was saying on another thread, if Mo goes for some outfield thumpage this winter, I think it will be left field. Cutting what O’Neill would make from payroll helps offset the cost.
O’Neill has 87 GS in the outfield this season. A little over half a season, so it’s not like we are relying on his presence out there.
The internal replacements will have to be a whole lot better to push O’Neill out too soon, IMO. At minimum, Tyler likely spends 2023 in St Louis. Teams rarely give up guys with those kind of tools. The same logic applies with Alex Reyes…you flat out can’t afford the chance that it comes together (again) when you had him for cents on the dollar.
I don’t think Gant and Bader are good comps…both of them pretty much maxed their value in St Louis, we knew their ceiling and decided that they had more value to other orgs than ours. I don’t think that’s the case with TON, or Reyes for that matter.
I could definitely see bringing O’Neill back next year but he needs to prove he is the 2021 player instead of the 2022 player. I am not so sure about Reyes. The Cardinals will probably bring him back for his final year of arbitration but I wouldn’t consider it a slam dunk decision. He has been trying to put it together for seven years with only one decent season to show for it.
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