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BW, Knizner isn’t exactly flying off the shelf. If a Contreras trade became realitic, I’m confident a Knizner type could be signed before the trade for 2mil, or 1/1.75mil like DeJong.
“Right now” we needed every one of those 40man spots, but it doesn’t mean the roster isn’t fluid, even for starters like Willson or FA’s like Kiz.
The key is “if a Contreras trade became realistic”. There is no reason to believe it is right now. But as soon as a respected media source reports a rumor that Contreras (with his no trade protection) has been offered to any of the other 29 teams in trade, I will change my view. In the meantime, it is a very low odds scenario.
What indications have folks seen that Herrera is deemed ready to be a starter for St. Louis? Are we really basing this on a hope for Molina magic?
I suspect those hoping for the Cards to make a blockbuster trade this winter will be disappointed.
P.S. As a reminder, Contreras was St. Louis’ top offensive player last season (.826 OPS, 124 OPS+).
“Logjamb at 2B”
There is no 2B logjamb. It’s Gormans, and we need 600 PA’s from him.
With Edman starting everyday in CF, we need Donovan to float, out of the DH role. Notice Mo didn’t call out who fills DH. He wants Donovans value marketed as a 2Bman, how is that not clear?
Carlson, right now, IS NOT a starting level outfielder. He’d be a weak replacement for Edman if Tommy had to go fix SS, and then the outfielder carousel which failed last season, restarts. Pass.
Add a glove first SS at utility, and let Edman in CF weld the outfield carousel to its post. Enough of this 1B/DH redundency at a corner OF, all looking like Chris Duncan out there.
But Walker looks like a 1B/DH too, he should be the DH! I agree. Try telling BillyMo, I’m sure the analytic room already has, up to the point of philosophical differences.
Even if they put Donovan in LF and Walker at DH, it wouldn’t last. Donnie would be on the move to backfill a need and Walker or another DH type is on a corner.
The “logjamb” scenario is being created by those who won’t say “send Winn down”. Probably not a popular opinion on a farmhand site, so I kinda get it.
BW, Mo made a comment about Contreras near the end of the season, that suggested we had the offseason to entertain options on the Contreras contract. Maybe someone can find it.
Mo didn’t call him out as a starter at the winter meetings either, when he listed ALL the other starters.
It would be a tough trade to line up. The salary, the backloading of it and Mo torching his value as a catcher, publicly. There’s enough smoke there in-house it wouldn’t surprise me, but again, really hard to line up.
We would miss his bat, but what’s the value in return? I’d still like a catcher with a good glove. Maybe Yadi can help him.
I want to point up one part of my previous comment that may have been overlooked.
“I am not saying it proves they are trying to move Contreras, only that bringing in Yadi would be a good move if they are”.
Winn won’t go back to AAA because there’s nothing for him to go back to. He’s learned that level so to continue his growth, he has to do it at the major league level. His bat will take time to adjust and that’s the bullet we’ll have to bite. You always have guys on the way up and guys on the way down – which is often dictated by Father Time.
Edman really is the best option for CF because of his instincts and the amount of ground he covers. That helps make Noot and Walker be better. I think in a vacuum that Carlson is equal to Edman overall as a CF (or at least really close), but Edman fits the team needs better because of the extra ground he can cover even if Carlson’s bat could be a bit better.
Walker can’t be the DH only option because we need that for Contreras while he splits time with Herrera. Contreras is too good of a hitter to take his bat out of the lineup. And when Contreras is catching, it allows Gorman or Baker or Burleson to DH. Walker has to make it in RF. He has both the arm and the legs to be a very good right fielder. He just needs more reps. He’s working on that over the offseason. Like Winn, he’s on the way up.
I agree with using Donovan all over the place to provide off days for everyone. Donovan should play nearly every day. He’ll just have to do each day in a new position. He’s the perfect guy to do just that.
So Carlson and O’Neill become the odd man out. O’Neill will be traded. I thought Carlson would also be dealt, but it sure looks like they’ll keep him as insurance which may be smart. Burleson could easily be dealt unless the team decides he’s the heir to Goldschmidt. But we could also give that job to Gorman or Walker or Baker or even Contreras. Therefore, it would be best to trade Burleson if they can find a team that values his bat. If that happens, then someone like Siani would be a perfect man for a final roster spot because he can pinch run or be a late game defensive replacement and we don’t have to worry about feeding him at bats because he can’t hit anyway. Plus, that would clear the way for Scott to play CF every day in Memphis. That leaves a bench of Carlson, Siani, Herrera, Baker, and whomever Donovan is subbing for that day with some combo of Contreras (when not catching)and Baker plus others serving as DH if indeed Burleson is dealt.
I prefer…
C-Contreras
1B-Goldy
2B-Donavan
SS-Edman
3B-Arenado
LF-Burleson
CF-Nootbaar
RF-Walker
DH-Gorman
Subs-Herrera, Baker, Saggese, Carlsonjj said:
The “logjamb” scenario is being created by those who won’t say “send Winn down”. Probably not a popular opinion on a farmhand site, so I kinda get it.
I see it differently. It has nothing to do with this site or who posts here. It is recognizing that the PBO announced that Winn is the starting SS. So, it is futile and ignoring reality to keep saying “send him down”. It is Winn’s job to lose. That isn’t going to change until April at the soonest.
“It has nothing to do with this site or who posts here.”
Then who is it, that you want to recognize what the PBO announced?
Some want to see Winn sent down, but that clearly isn’t what the team is planning to do. Some of our posters don’t seem to want to accept that. That was my point.
Generally, people who like prospects want them to play, not be sent down. That seems the opposite of what some want in this case. That is why I didn’t see the kind of site this is to be a factor in this Winn discussion.
If I misunderstood the question, please try again.
BW, Mo made a comment about Contreras near the end of the season, that suggested we had the offseason to entertain options on the Contreras contract. Maybe someone can find it.
He did make a comment similar to that but since then the orgainzation has been heaping praise on Contreras. The entire narrative seemed to shift. I would be very surprised to see him dealt. I think he is here to stay for the foreseeable future.
I found an article from the PD from two weeks ago. As gscottar said, there was a lot of praise of Contreras, from pitchers and Marmol himself. It includes this comment. It is not a direct quote of anyone, but a summary by the writer.
“The Cardinals indicated Contreras would be the starting catcher prior to the decision not to tender a contract to catcher Andrew Knizner.”
The earlier comment about reviewing during the offseason was made in July.
Yeah, I can’t blame you. That was a really, really bad look for the organization. I give Contreras a lot of credit for how he handled it, then and afterward.
Nothing has ever been as ignored as the position player side of the roster these last few weeks.
Chiseling the 2024 lineup into stone in early December seems stupid, but somehow it doesn’t surprise me at all. And it might not be stupid, maybe there was a psychological angle. Or marketing, or whatever.
I decided to look over my notes to see if I could come up with something needing a fresh look, now that the dust has settled. In short, not really. But I did see a quote that I had forgotten about, from Winn:
“I showed up at 185, so I want to show up at 190 to 195 next year. I think it’s healthier for me over a full season. I mean, if I can sit around 180 to 185 rather than 170 to 175, I think it’d be really good for me.”
So we will have to see if he is bulkier when he reports, and if so, how does it affect the facets of his game. I sure hope he gets on track pretty quickly. The team badly needs to come off the line hitting on all cylinders.
I don’t think it is stupid. It just affirmed what most of us could see already.
There are countless stories about managers giving young players confidence by telling them they will be in the lineup every day no matter what. So they don’t have to worry as much and can relax and play their game.
In fairness to Edman, who quietly does whatever is needed from him, it also tells him to report to camp prepared to start every day in center and focus less on second base and short. Maybe that clarity will help him, too.
Still, if Winn doesn’t hit for weeks on end, the only real stopgap is to return to musical lineups, which ends up affecting three or four other starters (Edman, Noot, LF replacement, etc.). Not ideal but it seems like the only viable fallback plan at this time.
Like you said, they need Winn to come though and help stabilize the lineup.
A topic that gets a lot of attention is the relationship between the analytics department and the manager.
Are MLB teams being ran by the analytics department?!
Oliver Marmol breaks down the situation with the #StlCards and his in-game decision making in the latest episode of “Show N’ Go w/ X”.https://t.co/Nq7RZEQEBw pic.twitter.com/iNZcYo56xm
— Xavier Scruggs (@Xavier_Scruggs) January 29, 2024
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