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John Nagel used to have an active and informative blog. He had some help from pretty good people. To me John seemed to be a good guy(he used a few of my stories) and was receptive that way.
John Nagel used to have an active and informative blog. He had some help from pretty good people. To me John seemed to be a good guy(he used a few of my stories) and was receptive that way.
That should tell us all we need to know about his standards, then. ??
I kid, I kid.
I think it’s a fair take from a 10,000 foot view. I also think that there is a lot better potential talent than the big prospect folks admit and that the system could look a lot better one year from now.
I really doubt the system looks better one year from now!
Why is that, CC? I could see the following guys being potential top 100 prospects in a year if things fall right (in decreasing order of likelihood):
Gorman (nearly a lock)
Montero (should be)
Knizner
Carlson
Cabrera
Torres
Arozarena
Nunez
Helsley (probably graduates)Not to say that they all will be, but even if 4 of them make it, that’s more than we had on almost any list this year.
Why is that, CC? I could see the following guys being potential top 100 prospects in a year if things fall right (in decreasing order of likelihood):
Gorman (nearly a lock)
Montero (should be)
Knizner
Carlson
Cabrera
Torres
Arozarena
Nunez
Helsley (probably graduates)Not to say that they all will be, but even if 4 of them make it, that’s more than we had on almost any list this year.
I agree and would suggest adding Ivan Herrera to your list of guys poised to break out onto top 100 lists. What stands out to me about the Cardinals system is that we have a decent mix of two useful types of prospects: the guys who should have lower ceilings but higher floors that are useful depth pieces to a major league roster, and guys who have a high ceiling but are inherently more risky as they are more projection than track record at this point. I think we have enough of these high upside candidates in the low minors that our system could be ranked much higher in the next few years should a couple of them realize their potential.
What worries me about our system is the lack of high end pitching prospects in the low minors. I understand the reason for it, as in recent history we’ve generally acquired those pitchers high in the draft but the last few years have shifted to drafting position players in the first round. I wouldn’t be surprised if we went back to drafting pitchers in the first round for the next couple drafts due to that need in the system.
Gorman – agree
I can easily see Montero and Knizner taking a step back. Not a huge one but enough to hurt their status.
Carlson will have to show power and an improved BA. A lot to ask at his age. He is not even a top 10 team prospect on most lists.
Cabrera could graduate if he is dominant enough to be considered top 100. Again, not a consensus top 10 team prospect. I think many are putting too much weight on his Winter ball performance.
Torres was good but not dominant in the AZL league. Got hot at PB. He needs to get to Peoria and be near dominant there to become top 100.
Arrozarena is not top 10 team wise. I dont think he has sniffed anyone’s top 100 list. Would probably need a .900+ OPS to become top 100. If he did that would he stay in the minors all year?
Nunez. Decent chance of being top 100. Needs to dominate again in short season ball and get to Peoria by the end of the year.
Helsey is not likely to be better than he has so far in the minors. And that has landed him on zero top 100 lists.
Dont get me wrong. I think all of these guys are potential major league starters, even possible all-stars at some point. But rightly or wrongly a player gets pigion holed extremely early by those who rank and that is hard to overcome. I think system rankers will be put off by our lack of starting pitching prospects and the distance some of our top hitters are from the majors and will rank.us lower because of tbat.
Agree on Herrera. I would argue Roberts has a better chance than Cabrera or Helsley at this point (even missing 2 months)
Just a point to remember about Cabrera. All three of the rankings here occurred before he pitched in winter ball and he came out 11th overall.
I give Winter ball less weight than the little I give the AFL results.
Mike Mayers Winter ball stats (DoWl) prior to last season 37 IP 37k 7 bb 0.77 WHIP.
“Hudson enters the 2019 season ranked 74th in the Baseball America Top 100 Prospects list, up 19 spots from 93rd before the 2018 season. His work in AAA last season (13-3, 2.50 ERA) was rewarded when he was named the Pacific League Pitcher of the Year. It was a repeat effort- his 2017 work in AA Springfield (9-4, 2.53 ERA) was good enough to be named the Texas League Pitcher of the Year. There’s a lot of shine on Hudson’s prospect status.” Jason LaRue – VEB
CC, FWIW, Mayers was also the best reliever in camp last spring. If I recall, he had something like 12 scoreless innings and then right after he made the team, he gave up three runs. He may need to pitch that well again this spring.
Ny, any particular point you are making about Hudson, or are you just reminding us he is good? 😉
Unfortunately Correa’s draft class may have been one of the best in recent years. Then we lost him over the Houston debacle. But last June’s class looks strong to me. That and the strong performances at the GCL and DSL could be a factor in 2000, particularly if some of the top guys get to Peoria or Palm Beach. Still probably too young to get a lot of top 100’s but maybe strong enough to have the system ranking upgraded.
Unfortunately, the top 100 listings are heavily slanted to top 10 or 15 draft choices and major international signings like Guerrero. Also I think there is an east and west coast bias in many of the rankings.
The key is that were turnout good players. We do need to have a few more impact players and the international route is probably our best bet to accomplish that.
I would say that Helsley and Cabrera could thrive in relief roles, but I still see them as viable starting candidates, particularly in 2020. And few relievers make top 100 lists.
Roberts’ suspension hurts his chances, and progress in 2019. His best case scenario is Palm Beach/Springfield this year.I don’t like to see successful minor league starters put into the pen. Especially at this point Hudson and a few others just mentioned. It almost wrecked Lance Lynn’s career.
I know it is based on the Card’s needs in time, but once these guys are totally ready for the big time I think room should be made for them. Their control years should enter into the equation.
Did anyone else read the SI article 10/8/18, in a doctor’s office, about Correa’s life before and mainly after his conviction. The sentence was a severe life changer. From a job he longed for for many years to a life of question marks. A high price to pay for his decision to log in.
I just read it. Anyone can search it and find it online.
I have always maintained that Correa was treated unfairly. The writer, Ben Leiter at SI, wrote this: ‘He believed Luhnow and Mejdal had taken proprietary data and algorithms with them, which he and his colleagues had spent thousands of hours to help develop.’ …. and this: ‘While he knew what he was doing wasn’t right, he never thought that it could be a crime. “It was all in the context of a game, to me,” he says. “When a pitcher throws at a batter’s chest, nobody runs to the local authorities and tries to file an assault charge. I’m not making excuses. I’m trying to explain where my head was at, as I now understand it. If another team does something wrong, you retaliate. That’s the lens through which I mistakenly viewed it, and I used that to give myself permission. It was wrong.’
That describes the way I felt about it from the beginning. This was a high profile case about a very hot topic, and Correa was used as an example of what might happen to anyone that got into another person’s computer. If the government attorneys want to impress people, why don’t they catch the gang members that make a profession of breaking into other people’s computers and stealing from them? The punishment to Correa was far greater than the crime. It makes me sick to think of what happened to this poor guy. I hope he writes a book about it and makes millions. It’s disappointing that the Cardinals as an organization ran away from him when he got into trouble. They should pay his fine and give him whatever money he needs to get started again in life.
Ny, you must have forgotten we had this same conversation about the Correa SI article in October. Here is the link to our earlier discussion from page 3 of one of your favorite threads. 😉
I don’t feel as sorry for Correa as some of you. As a reminder, this is my take from October.
BW, I have to say my memory is not the culprit here. I most likely would have skipped over the Correa piece because it was a topic I wanted to put in the past ASAP. It was a harsh penalty. For me the end result for the Cards far over-weighed the who, whens, wheres and hows.
It was a magazine on a table in a Doctor’s office. I don’t need to tell most guys what the other reading choices were, and this one was near the top of the pile.
I brought it up here because perhaps some readers here didn’t hear Correa’s ordeal in this case and following. Honestly, I had a change in my opinion regarding Correa after reading it.
Mea culpa for skipping the story here. I guess my mind was pretty much made up at that time.
File this one under chance encounter.
No need to apologize. I was just mildly amused that when I went back to look for the earlier reference from October, you had posted the very next comment after I linked the SI story. I guess I incorrectly assumed that you had read what you were commenting about.
Anyway, since your opinion changed, what was your reaction to my opinion piece pointing out my concerns with the SI story?
Law’s mid-season rankings have Gorman #20 and Carlson #30.
#stlcards Nolan Gorman and Dylan Carlson are prominently included, though the Joey Gallo comp for Gorman skips over Gallo's elite walk rate. Only 2 of 3 True Outcomes currently in Gorman's profile, but there is still plenty of time…
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) July 11, 2019
The Dodgers finish in first place every year yet they still have 4 out of the top 50 milb players. Andrew Friedman is a genius. And no it isn’t just about their money. Most of their payroll consists of internal extensions or bloated contracts of players signed by the previous GM who are no longer on the roster.
They are a well ran organization. They draft and develop extremely well. You guys get tired of me talking about Theo Epstein but I think Friedman is 10 times better than Epstein. So is Brian Cashman.
Law left ESPN and is now with The Athletic, so his content is subscriber-only. (Come to think of it, it was at ESPN, too…)
Dylan Carlson makes the top 25, Matthew Liberatore, Nolan Gorman, and in his national top 100 debut, Ivan Herrera, are in the second 50, for a total of four #stlcards ranked this year. https://t.co/cnFbR9k4GC
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) February 24, 2020
#stlcards C Andrew Knizner makes an appearance… https://t.co/53GTCN8ehZ
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) February 25, 2020
One last Top 100 list highlighting four #STLCards prospects:
OF Dylan Carlson (No. 23)
LHP Matthew Liberatore (No. 54)
3B Nolan Gorman (No. 82)
C Ivan Herrera (No. 97) https://t.co/JGbs31MQLS— Cardinals Player Development (@CardsPlayerDev) February 24, 2020
According to Keith Law of The Athletic, the #stlcards farm system is no. 9 in MLB, their best ranking I've seen to date for 2020. https://t.co/SJxNc38XLg
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) March 2, 2020
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