- This topic has 117 replies, 25 voices, and was last updated 1 month, 2 weeks ago by
.
-
Posts
-
7 Wetherholt
26 Doyle
29 RodriguezNo Baez or Bernal.
Sorry. Here is the link to the article (subscription required).
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6985939/2026/01/26/top-mlb-prospects-2026-keith-law-konnor-griffin/
I canceled my subscription to The Athletic a while back, but I am still able to access the article so others may be as well.
Interesting nickname for Rainiel. The Hulk. I like it and hope he can live up to it and mash in the bigs.
Law has the Cards as his 11th ranked system, third in the division after the Brewers and Pirates.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6998285/2026/01/29/top-farm-systems-mlb-brewers-dodgers-mariners/
Yeah, if you rank three prospects in your top 30, including one in the top 10, you cannot then rank the farm system #11. The math won’t work.
If we look at KLaw’s top 100 list of individual prospects — and actually tally up the estimated career WAR numbers for each prospect slot — it’s clear that any one of four franchises could reasonably be considered number one farm system: Detroit, LA, Milwaukee, and Seattle. Then there’s a modest dropoff to the Pirates, then another to the Redbirds, who are pretty decisively ahead of the remainder of teams.
I’m sure that when KLaw ranked individual players, he was incredibly meticulous. But I’m almost equally sure that when he ranked farm systems, he went by feel rather than math.
To show what I mean, let’s just make a quick side-by-side comparison between his #6 organization, Washington, and his #11 Cardinals.
He ranks Washington’s best prospect 53rd, and the Redbird’s best is Wetherholt at #7.
Washington’s second-best is ranked 76th, and St. Louis’ number two is Doyle at 26th.
Finally, the Nationals’ 3rd-best is rated #94. And per KLaw, Rainiel Rodriguez is 29th.
(Conveniently for the purposes of this exercise, each organization has just three in KLaw’s top 100.)If we add them all up, assuming each of those prospects have been evaluated perfectly, that’d be roughly 12 career WAR, 8 WAR, and 6 WAR for the Washington trio. And approximately 55 career WAR, 25 WAR, and 20 WAR for the Cardinal threesome.
So, based solely on KLaw’s own top 100 rankings, that’s 100 WAR to 26 WAR in favor of St. Louis. And of course there is absolutely no way that non-top 100 depth could ever come remotely close to making up such a profound gap as 74 WAR.
KLaw can say that the Cards have the 11th-best system, but his own individual rankings say they clearly have the 6th-most talent, when taking just top 100 type prospects.
I agree Bob. Cardinals should be higher than 11.
However, I do agree with his commentary on the Dodgers. I have been saying this in vain for quite some time:
“The Dodgers are the best at what they do. Fans of other teams can complain all day about the money the team spends on the major-league roster, but the Dodgers do back it up with the old-school stuff that you should respect, even if you don’t like it: They scout, heavily, and they do individual development work with their players — especially hitters — that is the best in the sport.”
I wonder which has a greater impact on LA’s W-L record? Developed players or free agents?
Here is a quick look at how their top 14 players joined the organization:
Free agents 9
Trade acquisitions 3 (could have been aided by in house developed players)
In house developed 2Here are the players:
C Smith – drafted
1B Freeman – free agent
2B Edman – trade
3B Muncy – free agent
SS Betts – trade
LF Teoscar – free agent
CF Pages – international FA
RF Tucker – free agentDH/SP Ohtani – free agent
SP Snell – free agent
SP Yamamoto – free agent
SP Glasnow – trade
SP Sasaki – free agent
CL Diaz – free agentWell as the Cardinals hopefully find out in the next few years a well stocked farm system is basically a currency of its own. I am hoping that allows us to cash in on our abundance of catchers.
The Dodger philosophy it should be noted has obviously shifted some, just in the past few years. Per Cot’s Contract’s, LA was just 4th in MLB in 2023 when it came to the Competitive Balance Tax numbers for their 40-man roster. The number then was $268 million.
For 2025 they were highest, at a whopping $417 million. I believe that was roughly $70 million above anyone else. (And recall, they only had the majors’ 5th-best record in 2025.)
GScott, wasn’t meaning it’s a guarantee, just that spending smartly sure doesn’t hurt. Just hoping like we all are for Flag 12 in 2028! Or 12 in ‘28? (Can I trademark that?)
It’s hard to compare the Mets and Dodgers though because the Dodgers have been building a proper system for over a decade and the Mets just throw money around Willy Nilly.
$20M/year for Jorge Polanco is a prime example.
I’m scared to see what Winn is going to get in FA if that kid in ATL got $20, that’s why I’m a big proponent for extensions of Winn, Herrera, JJW and maybe even Burly.
It’s hard to compare the Mets and Dodgers though because the Dodgers have been building a proper system for over a decade and the Mets just throw money around Willy Nilly.
Agreed. Winning a World Series is hard. It involves a lot more than a big checkbook. Imagine that.
The Athletic just posted its updated MLB Top 50 Prospects List. The #stlcards have three ranked between no. 20 and no. 29 – Liam Doyle, Tanner Franklin and Rainiel Rodriguez.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) May 28, 2026
I am sharing this subscriber only article so you all can read it.
LA, if it is pure draft bias, then why aren’t there 71 other players from his draft class ahead of him since Franklin was drafted 72nd? Only 4 players drafted last year at all are ahead of Franklin on Law’s list. Kade Anderson at #4, Seth Hernandez at #9, Liam Doyle at #20, and 3rd rounder Anthony Eyanson at #21.
Franklin has performed well and is flashing a great arsenal. What he did for Tennessee doesn’t matter anymore and what matters is the upside he has for an MLB career. Scouts like his upside and think he can be a #2 SP.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.