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Maybe player development gets some blame for having inconsistent strategies:
A coach pulled us aside afterwards and told us that the analysts didn't see it that way and we should be trying to punch people out. Incoherent strategy in that org on the pitching front. They had pitching coaches with no idea how to use trackman (not Peoria PC, he was great)
— Paul Schwendel (@pschwendel10) May 3, 2023
Schwendel was at Peoria for the 2021 season. Who was the Director of Player Development at that time?
The main PD leadership people are pretty much the same, though some coaches have turned over since 2021.
My thought about reading that again is that it looks like they did a directional shift to push strikeouts by 2021 (or earlier perhaps) but not everyone was on board. That would appear to be a leadership issue.
The latter part of what I wondered in my prior post seems to apply: “Did scouting draft the wrong guys or did the organization as a whole not update their priorities quickly enough to reflect the changes in the game?”
Another thought is a repeat of what I said before. Just because they decided they want more strikeouts, it doesn’t mean all of the current pitchers have those strengths. It would be great if Ks were a switch that could be turned on, but it isn’t that simple. If they push a one size fits all approach, whether Ks or not Ks, it won’t ever work. Again, that seems a leadership matter, if that is what they are/were really doing.
I never picked up any of the internal reaction to Schwendel’s comments at the time (May 2023). It got a lot of play externally, so I would give high odds of it having been noticed in the front office. All I can observe with some certainty is that there is a very high level of continuity of staff between 2023 and 2024.
I did look into who was the “great” pitching coach at Peoria that year, and it was Dean Keikhefer, recently promoted to asst. pitching coach on the major league staff. It is not clear if he was the coach who contradicted the Director of Player Development.
If you ‘pitch to contact’ you can theoretically have a 3 pitch inning.
If you strike out the side the fewest number of pitches possible in an inning is 9.
The issue with pitch to contact is that there is no need to extend a pitcher into the sixth or seventh inning if he is allowing runners. It really requires each individual to shift philosophies as the situations evolve.
I think one difference in the game today compared some 30 years ago, is pitchers would pitch more to contact early on, and with the bases empty. And with a decent lead as well. They would bear down more and go for the kill when a strikeout was a much better result than a batted ball.
Today it seems the mantra is to bear down all the time – keep that gun showing mid 90s or better.
That speed gun is a big change as well. When you were not constantly seeing your pitch speed, you could ease up and not feel like the coaches are concerned that your velocity is down.
I think that culture change is also why we see so many injuries today relative to the past. To pitch 300 innings, a guy simply had to put it in cruise control now and then. They don’t let you do that today.
This is spot on BikeMike. Unfortunately, that’s the reality of the analytics driven game. There’s big money now involved in being just a little better than everyone else and even more money for being a lot better. Capitalism drives analytics and the push to get better. But, it has the downside of potentially taking some of the fun out of the game. Fortunately for baseball, we can really only quantify about 1/8th of everything that matters which is why our projections and especially our individual guesses on matchups are often wrong. All the other forces causing effects on the diamond are mostly just chalked up to be “luck”.
I certainly appreciate pitchers who can still effectively pitch to contact. It drives me crazy when a guy completes the 5th inning with 94 pitches. But pitching to contact feels “luckier” than striking a guy out. So we lean on what we understand better and push for strikeouts because it is something we have more power to control.
Part of it is pitching is considered volatile and injuries can happen all the time. You want to get the most out of your investment that you can before it likely breaks down. So go out a light that gun up son! Gio go throw in 80 appearances a year.
Jordan Hicks with St. Louis, 2023: 42 IP, a whopping 59 K’s, and a 3.67 ERA.
Jordan Hicks with the Blue Jays: 24 IP, just 22 K’s, and a 2.63 ERA.Walks + hit batters + wild pitches: 34 with the Cards, 9 with Toronto.
(Per Brooks Baseball, Jordan didn’t throw quite as hard with the Jays, either.)With his strikeout rate plummeting post-trade — and the wildness indicators massively improving — it certainly appears that Hicks immediately cut down on the velocity/movement after the trade, and significantly improved his command/control. And that the tradeoff made him a much better pitcher.
“The problem I have with development — and I don’t even wanna talk about the big league level right now — is organizations have gone out and hired everybody from high tech companies that can understand spin rate and horizontal movement, to the point where pitchers are more concerned about spin rate and horizontal movement than throwing a strike….”
“That is a tremendous disconnect within our sport. And I just don’t understand how so many smart people who are running teams haven’t figured that out! This is not rocket science. It’s still about throwing strikes.”
— Former GM Dan O’Dowd
Very good discussion and I agree with all of the points being made here. In my opinion the lack of starting pitchers pitching 200-250 innings per year has drastically changed the game for the worse. Using 5 or 6 pitchers per game is such a drag on the game. It is like nails on a chalkboard. It really isn’t good for team payrolls either. I would rather pay a starter $20M/year to give me 225 innings than pay him $20M/year to give me 175 innings. That means I also have to spend more on the bullpen to make up for the lost innings.
I think the pace of game rules negate some of the irritation of pitching changes. I record all the games so I can fast-forward through commercials, pitching changes, and innings where Gallegos pitches. I root for Giovanni, but he is hard on my nervous system.
Good stuff. Hicks is a good example of a guy that got derailed by the whole “light up the gun” thing. The guy has the lights out fastball, but you don’t want to use that all the time. Pitch first, and keep that weapon handy for the times when it will really make a difference.
It took Sandy Koufax several years to learn that. Bob Gibson was erratic in his first few years before finding the command of his pitches.
If Hicks really did learn to pitch in Toronto, instead of just throw, the Giants might have a real gem.
…but they’re still just two spots away from being lowest in the division. Many good prospects in the NLC.
For 2024, the #stlcards farm system ranks no. 13 by @keithlaw of @TheAthletic, their best showing to date among national raters. https://t.co/2LA39SvO8p
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) February 9, 2024
We know these rankings are top prospect heavy. Our system is propped up by Winn being a couple days under the threshold. But I agree we should feel good about it while we can before in season rankings come out after he’s out as a prospect.
I am currently writing a story about that very point…
Update: Now posted on the home page for subscribers.
Same three #STLCards prospects in @keithlaw's Top 100 as BA and Pipeline, but in a different sequence. Law likes Hence more than Mathews.
32 JJ Wetherholt
39 Tink Hence
55 Quinn Mathewshttps://t.co/ExDFQhsbwP— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 27, 2025
@keithlaw Farm systems ratings has #STLCards higher than I would’ve expected. We shall see. @Cardinals pic.twitter.com/thcWGd0RWa
— ScottyPeabody (@TexasCardsFan1) February 3, 2025
I would also argue the Cards are looking better in the potential #3 SP types than we have in years and expect at least one guy like Mathews to be a #3 or better. I will not say this team has a top system and would put them around Law’s ranking in the middle, but I think saying just a bunch of #5s is accurate. The hitting side beyond C does look bleak though other than one or two very risky types that have upside.
Over at The Athletic, @keithlaw posted his new national Top 60 Prospect List. The #stlcards have two in his top 23 including the no. 3 prospect overall. https://t.co/3SDXj5iULE
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) July 24, 2025
Wetherholt as the 3rd best prospect in the game is exciting to see. Hopefully Wetherholt doesn’t disappoint like Walker, although I do think Wetherholt has a much safer profile to at least be a useful big leaguer.
Doyle at 23. I will say I see him spending all of 2026 in the minors working on his non-fastballs at which point Doyle likely is a top 10 prospect if things go well.
I’ll say my top 3 of the draft last year were Wetherholt, Rainer, Griff. 2 of those 3 are getting top 10 prospect in the game votes (Griffin #1 at MLB propsect pipeline) and then Rainer at 30s while out for the year. I do find this blurb on Griffin entertaining (I saw this after my comment on Walker).
He [Konner Griffin] has hit unbelievably well given those concerns, reminiscent of how Jordan Walker came out of the gate in his full-season debut in 2021
Let’s see if I can make it 2 years in a row of my top draft choices being top 10 prospects gaining over the others. I had my top 3 this year as Aiva Arquette, Eli Willits, Ethan Holliday.
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