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I don’t see the comparison between Contreras and Fowler. Fowler had one or two decent years at Wrigley just as he became a free agent but Contreras has been consistently good for six full seasons. He has a career OPS of .808, OPS+ of 115, has generated 20.8 WAR in six full seasons, and is a 3 time all star. But the biggest distinguishing factor is that he has done this as a catcher. If he was at any other position his offensive numbers would be ok but not great but at catcher they are elite. Catcher was the biggest hole in our lineup last year and we have filled it with the best offensive catcher available.
But he will spend a lot time as a DH. I don’t think this team most pressing need was an “elite” hitting catcher.
gscottar…I won’t even mention the other guy’s name in the same breath as Willson Contreras. Johnny did real good on this one.
All I know is that a lot of Cardinal fans have complained about the Cardinals wasting the prime years of Goldy and Arenado and need to go all in. Well this is an all in move. In fact, this is the kind of move that could have been discussed in that meeting between Mo and Arenado before Nolan decided not to opt out.
An all in move would be an elite pitcher 87M for Verlander. Getting Rodon maybe. This leaves the pitching the same.
I feel the same way, gscottar. I’m more than a little surprised they made such a significant move. In my view, Contreras was the best available option to fill the need for a catcher. I never liked to see him step in with Cubbies aboard base vs. the Cardinals. He’s no joke and I’m glad we got him.
The Rule 5 guy missed a lot of bats in Mexico last season 14+ K/9. That’s probably why Mo’s computer flagged a guy who hasn’t been in affiliated ball for 7 years.
I’m guessing he has 2 option years left, and the Yankees probably forgot he existed, so maybe Mo will try to work a deal with the Yankees so he can be sent down.
Mo missed out on giving five years to the ghost of So Taguchi. Outsmarted by the Red Sox. We need guys who can handle the heat (like So did when he arrived), and MO could’ve gotten another 5’8″ 170 slugger for only Contreras money. What a black day indeed.
Here are some 2023 forecasts, from the Steamer projection model.
All WAR totals are pro-rated to 600 plate appearances.Willson Contreras 3.4 WAR
Ivan Herrera 3.2
Sean Murphy 4.4
Alejandro Kirk 5.1As previously asserted by myself and others, if the Cards found Murphy and Kirk to be prohibitive in their trade cost, the Cards should’ve simply bought a mediocre backup and given Herrera a full shot at starting, or starting alongside Knizner, or the veteran backup.
I don’t believe in Steamer devoutly, nothing like that; I very much doubt that Contreras is currently just 0.2 WAR better than Herrera. But I do think it is entirely possible that by 2024 or ’25, there will be no meaningful gap between them, and all the Contreras money will have been wasted. And an opportunity lost.
“Contreras can play DH,” many are saying. Okay. Then what do you do with Juan Yepez, who cannot play the field to save his life? And what about Burleson, too? And if Gorman doesn’t dislodge Donovan from the keystone, where does Gorman get his at-bats?
The St. Louis MLB position player roster is an inefficient cluttered mess right now. And while it’s true that you can never have too much pitching, you CAN have too many second basemen, and too many DH’s.
I like that the projection system sees Herrera has legit game power. Contrares will get his at bats catching next year.If he catches 115 games, he probably only dh’s 5 or 6 times.
Yepez will dh if he hits. We won’t have to wonder where they will come from. They will be his 100 times, and he can play 10 to 15 times in left or right. Gorman is better defensively than Donovan and will hit 25 bombs(That’s what Nigel’s projection is spitting out.) The line up has options, but hitters will play and strugglers will sit. Competition is good and productive. Not every position should be set in stone in December.The Cardinal’s position player is NOT an inefficient cluttered mess. Where do you get that from? Ivan Herrara is a minor-league player whom no one knows how he would hit if ever played full-time in the majors.
The Cardinals now have the best overall third baseman, the best overall first baseman, and the best overall catcher in the NL. If O’Neill comes back strong, we will have a potential middle of the lineup soon of Goldschmidt, Arenado,
Contreras, O’Neill, and Walker along with table setters Edman, Donovan, and Carlson. I’m sorry, Bob, but that’s pretty darned exciting.The real sleeper in the lineup could be Gorman. As stl25 has pointed out in the past Gorman has consistently struggled in his first attempt at each level only to come out blazing in his second attempt. 2023 will be his second attempt at the big leagues. Everyone keeps saying we need a big LH bat. I think we already have one and I hope we don’t trade him.
I’m just going to say that I’m anxious to see what he brings to the Cardinals’ game. I have never liked his play much. It seems like he’s got a big head and a short temper. Let’s just see. It’s nice that MO refused to take a fleecing to get a catcher. And we’re not pretending to have a big league catcher. We actually do have a big league catcher. I’ll admit that the comparison to Fowler does rattle me a bit. And I do want to see Herrera play sooner rather than later. But, truth be told, Herrera isn’t ready yet, and Bernal is still all projection.
“The Cardinal’s position player is NOT an inefficient cluttered mess.”
I wrote that the “St. Louis MLB position player roster is an inefficient cluttered mess right now.”
And of course it’s a mess. You don’t need two or three above average second basemen, or three solid designated hitters. There are too, too many redundancies. When you have distinct needs not being addressed, redundancies are not good, not depth. They are inefficient. They are wasteful. The 2023 wRC+ Steamer forecasts:
Nootbaar 126
Yepez 122
Donovan 121
Burleson 118
O’Neill 118
Carlson 115
Gorman 110And Jordan Walker is on the way. So that’s gonna be eight guys for five positions real soon (OFers, DH, 2B). And nine for five positions when Masyn Winn is ready, which may be midseason. There’s far too much duplication, and not near enough certainty. Just take Nolan Gorman for example. If those Steamer numbers are roughly accurate, there’s no way to justify his starting at any position, including DH, except maybe once or twice a week to give another guy a break. Even Yepez and Burleson on the same roster is somewhat questionable, as Juan can’t play the outfield and Burley probably shouldn’t, and both hit righties better than lefties. Same with Donovan & Gorman. Can’t even platoon ’em.
So what I’m saying is IF the numbers are just roughly accurate and IF the players are deployed correctly, Gorman has almost no value to the St. Louis Cardinals going forward, even if he’s a true-talent 3-WAR player! So you trade him now. Or Donovan. Trade one of them with Yepez, or Burleson. And then at least some of the clutter would get cleared.
Again, the 30-year-old Contreras is projected by one relatively reputable forecasting model to baaarely be better than 22-year-old Ivan Herrera right now. So we can only imagine what a 2025 projection would look like. It is Fowler v. Bader all over again. If you do not trust your farm system, if you’re gonna pay full freight to go outside your organization, then you darn well better be getting someone MUCH better than your internal options now, and better going forward. And I do not believe that happened today.
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“Everyone leaves out how this year’s 3.6 in arb is an aberration. It goes up, and if indeed Murphy ascends to Contreras-type power numbers, what will that extension look like?
On two years we would be debating the wisdom of giving 5 years and 125 million dollars is worth keeping one of our best players.”I never gave a moment’s thought to the Cards keeping either Murphy or Kirk beyond their arbitration years. Not at all. Never said it, never implied it. My assumption was to get three great years from Murphy at a cheapo grand total of 20-25 million bucks, after which the Cards would get the draft pick compensation when he leaves. Then the Birds turn things over to either Ivan Herrera or Leonardo Bernal or Jimmy Dale Crooks III or someone else. No big money for a backstop in his 30’s unless he’s Hall Of Fame quality — and maybe not even then, depending on who else you got coming up.
Oh, and thanks for correcting me on the lost draft pick, Brian. And the bonus pool hit is $500,000, I believe. So this deal isn’t exactly like the Dexter Fowler Disaster.
Fowler was an overrated 30-year-old former cub given 5 yrs. and $80+ million plus a 1st round pick even though the Cards had an elite prospect who played the same position and had already thrived in Double-A.
Contreras is an overrated 30-year-old ex-cub given 5 yrs. and $80+ million and a 2nd round pick plus half a million in international bonus money, even though the Cards have multiple elite prospects who play the same position, one of whom has already succeeded in Triple-A.
Yeah, why would I think those situations are the same?
This team needs some one with a fiery temper, have to many low key personalities right now w/o Pujols, Molina and even Bader
Too much is spent on the backend of the contract. Who cares, the Cardinals have to be an organization that isn’t afraid to spend. Win now and win all the time mindset! They make enough to eat bad contracts, this isn’t any other pro league with caps.
The A’s evidently wanted Nootbaar, Donovan & Graceffo for Murphy.
The Blue Jays discussed Nootbaar and/or Helsley for Jansen.
Source: Derrick Goold
I think the Cardinals were right to move on. Now, they are going to pivot towards pitching. The offseason is not over, and right now, the Cardinals are in a much stronger position than if they had given up a king’s ransom for Murphy.
I like this move, but don’t love it. Could turn into love if they use some of that prospect capital to get a #1/2 starter.
Short of them having a time machine to turn Waino back to a 30 year old, we have a bunch of #3/4 starters. We are 6 -7 deep, but none of them scare a team.
The A’s knew and know full well they aren’t getting anything like that from any team.
“Hey, Billy Beane! Here’s my pair of 3-4 WAR guys for your 4-5 WAR guy. And of course, I get just three years of that production while you get ten. Or does it go to eleven? Oh, and I’ll throw in an elite pitching prospect, too. Hahahahaha.”
Helsley straight up for Jansen would’ve been interesting at least. Even though I don’t want Danny The Walking Disabled List Jansen anyway. I guess we should assume now that Alejandro Kirk was never available at all in the first place.
At any rate, I take Derrick Goold’s reporting in this area with a few grains of salt. Goold almost invariably presents opposing teams’ trade demands as insanely outlandish, to show how “trapped” the Redbirds are by their own talent. “The other team wanted Jordan Walker so the Cards had to leave the table.” That sort of nonsense. Like the Cards are being repeatedly, endlessly given absurd ultimatums by opposing franchises.
The A’s can ask for the sun and the moon, that’s their option. But no one is giving them anything like Noot + Donovan + Graceffo. And the Cardinals wouldn’t have had to, either, in my opinion. Not if they called Beane’s bluff. Donovan, okay. With a lefty outfielder; but Burleson not Noot. And a twirler. Or maybe even two. But not Gordon Graceffo and not Markevian Hence.
Today was a very bad day in Cardinal history. But it would have been worse with Nootbaar + Donovan + Graceffo traded for three years of Murphy — as good as he is.
I think some are expecting too much of a boost from a .240 hitter with Wrigley Field power. But he is a predictable veteran catcher who eliminates the black hole in the lineup. Mission accomplished.
It seems like Oakland and Toronto overplayed their hand, reconning Mo to be desperate and ripe for fleecing. I’m OK with holding on to the prospects for now. Dry powder. Better deals will come along.
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