Cubs thread

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  • #114304
    Brian Walton
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    Maddon said he wanted to stay. The Cubs did not offer him a new contract.

    He is going to have even tougher going in LA unless Arte pays for some pitching.

    #114305
    GameCard
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    I think their number priority is to sign Cole.

    #114389
    BlackHillsCard
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    Well this sucks. Kantrovitz was the Cardinals former scouting director before leaving for Oakland. He’s pretty good at his job, so this isn’t good for the Cardinals.

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/cubs-hire-dan-kantrovitz-athletics-vice-president-scouting.html

    #114407
    Brian Walton
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    Chicago media starting to send signals that Castellanos isn’t returning to the Cubs,

    #114455
    gscottar
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    He might be headed 8 miles to the south.

    #114478
    gscottar
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    #114479
    gscottar
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    #115579
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    Kantrovitz probably getting one of his guys…

    #115642
    gscottar
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    Uh oh jager…..

    #115885
    gscottar
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    #116218
    Brian Walton
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    Ken Rosenthal writes at The Athletic that the Cubs are currently projected to be $6 MM over the $208 MM luxury tax threshold and will be looking to shed money before they negotiate with any free agents.

    They may be in a very tough spot, as Bryant is the most likely candidate, but MLB has yet to rule on his long-standing service time manipulation grievance. Until they do, an acquiring team wouldn’t know if they get him for one or two years – a major issue.

    They could deal Contreras, but would save just an estimated $4.5 MM – not nearly enough to matter.

    https://theathletic.com/1441618/2019/12/08/rosenthal-signings-and-stories-that-could-make-for-decadent-drama-at-the-winter-meetings/

    #116697
    gscottar
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    #116698
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    I am still waiting to read anyone’s explanation as to why trading Contreras would materially help the Cubs. Reading Gordo’s article, which summarizes what others wrote, reminds me that the writers keep rehashing the same thoughts without applying reasoning to it.

    #116717
    stlcard25
    Participant

    As a Cards fan, any trade of better players for worse players by the Cubs is helpful…😁😁

    #116722
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    Some players with no-trade protection do not want to waive it.

    #116733
    gscottar
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    I don’t understand why they would want to trade Contreras either. I’m sure he would generate a nice return but he is only projected to make $4.75M in 2020 and I thought the reason they were trying to make trades is to move payroll to get under the luxury tax.

    #116761
    mudville
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    I don’t know how often it happens. But it seems like it’s pretty unusual for a player to exercise a no-trade provision unless it’s to extract more money for the player out of a trade. In most cases all the no-trade provision does is afford the player the opportunity to know about a trade that involves him rather than finding out after the fact. But there are exceptions like Joey Votto, and now, Yu Darvish. Regarding Arenado, it’s hard to believe that Arenado would ask for even more money than he’s already owed, and it’s hard to believe that he would reject a trade knowing that the Rockies can’t afford him, and therefore, don’t want him. That’s not to say it couldn’t happen. Just seems unlikely.

    #116915
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    Non-rumor, perhaps…

    #117206
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    Cubs have to pay $7.6 million in tax for their 2019 overspending, a 20% penalty. If they do it again in 2020, the penalty goes up to 30%.

    #117470
    PadsFS
    Participant

    Writers keep referring to the tax as a “cap”, but I think the Cubs FO couldn’t care less about the tax in reality, at least for the 2020 season.

    #117472
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Pads, that is not what is being communicated out of Chicago. The beat writers are saying the Cubs are trying to get below the $208 MM target. The Bryant trade speculation is a direct result.

    What have you read specifically that leads you to believe otherwise?

    The tax rate increases in subsequent years. The Cubs paid $7.6 MM in 2019, a 20% tax on the overage. If they miss again for 2020, they pay a 30% tax and it goes to 50% in year three. Depending on how much a team is over, there could be a draft pick penalty, too.

    #117757
    Ratsbuddy
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    Are the Cubs really going to trade Kris Bryant? What about Wilson Contreras?

    Whats up with that anyway?

    r/Rat

    #117758
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    There is a rumor that they will trade Bryant to the Braves for a package of Riley, Newcomb and Wright. That may or may not happen depending on the decision by MLB on whether Bryant has 1 or 2 years before he is a free agent.

    #117788
    gscottar
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    They do seem determined to trade Bryant but I guess they are stuck in limbo until his grievance is resolved. By the way, I expect the Cubs will win that grievance. They didn’t break the rules as they were written. But if Bryant wins we will see mass chaos as many other players will be filing grievances.

    #117884
    PadsFS
    Participant

    Brian Walton

    Pads, that is not what is being communicated out of Chicago. The beat writers are saying the Cubs are trying to get below the $208 MM target. The Bryant trade speculation is a direct result.

    What have you read specifically that leads you to believe otherwise?

    The tax rate increases in subsequent years. The Cubs paid $7.6 MM in 2019, a 20% tax on the overage. If they miss again for 2020, they pay a 30% tax and it goes to 50% in year three. Depending on how much a team is over, there could be a draft pick penalty, too.

    I just don’t believe it. Nothing substantial really, but I don’t see them trading major leaguers like Bryant, so they would already be over the luxury tax level for 2020. So what’s the point of staying “just over”? Right now, they have an estimated luxury tax payroll of $214,342,333. I bet they will go up to the $228M level at a minimum.

    Also, I believe the increased tax effect is only on the increased payroll. As in, they will be taxed 20% on the $20M between a payroll of $208M and $228M and then 30% on the $20M payroll between $228M and $248M.

    First tier: 20% of $20 million = $4 million

    Second tier: 32% of $20 million = $6.4 million

    https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2018/11/12/how-much-would-the-luxury-tax-actually-cost-the-cubs-at-a-260m-payroll/

    This was the article that got me thinking about it last year. Perhaps, that is a separate rule of the luxury taxes though. Are you saying the initial 20% jumps to 30% in 2020?

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