COVID19 Virus vs Baseball

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  • #134742
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #134750
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Summarizing Saturday’s news…

    #134760
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    Thanks for that summary Brian. I was not sure I was up to date on all the happenings. You are right about the CDC vs MLB interpretations of quarantine. Had the Cards done a 14 day quarantine they would have lost the same number of games as they probably will lose now – 13. But they keep restarting that Q clock so I am not sure anybody knows what will happen. I know a lot of fans are very frustrated.

    #134761
    Avatarblingboy
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    It seems irresponsible for anyone to be exposed to anyone who has not quarantined in compliance with CDC guidelines. From that, the earliest date on which a team can responsibly be assembled can be calculated, as can the number of games missed and the feasibility of ending up with the 60 game schedule played. The question in my mind is whether the Cards and MLB are trying to figure out how to live with reality, or are continuing to believe they can get around it.

    #134765
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #134770
    Avatar1964cards
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    My heart goes out to the players and hope for a speedy and complete recovery.

    Just listed to an interview on Mad Dog radio with a writer from the Athletic. He was questioning MLB allowing the Cardinals to travel and the work out within the 14 day isolation period recommended by the CDC. You would have to think MLB will extend the current period of isolation for the Cardinals given what has happened. If so, it could be quite awhile before the Redbirds are allowed to play any games.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Avatar1964cards.
    #134772
    Avatargscottar
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    Shildt’s quote about some of the players requiring a visit to the ER should serve as a reminder that this virus is extremely serious. These guys are young and highly trained athletes in their prime so if it can send them to the ER it can do it to anyone.

    All those claims about this virus being a hoax or overblown or only impacting older people were obviously wrong. I am not being political. I am just speaking in medical reality terms.

    #134773
    Avatargscottar
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    Joel Sherman speculates that we may see many players from non-contenders opt out in September.

    #134774
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    I think the 14 day rule should not be a hard and fast rule for people who are being tested every day. The governor of Ohio was tested Positive last week as he was about to meet the President. Since then he has had no less than 3 negative tests. To me that would seem to indicate he had a false positive. We don’t know how the Cards tests have been turning out but a string of negatives following a positive should be ample proof of a false positive. No doubt there are some people with the bug but to clamp 14 days automatic quarantine on those who come back with negatives is not the best way to handle things. Two positives in a row would convince me that the 14 day Q treatment is needed.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by AvatarMinuteman3.
    #134775
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #134777
    Avatargscottar
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    In my opinion the Cardinals are not going to play 60 games this year. They need to shut this thing down however long it takes for them to be completely covid free then come back and try to play as many games as possible. Maybe they could get to 50 or 55 games and that would be deemed sufficient.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Avatargscottar.
    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Avatargscottar.
    #134781
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    MM3, I am confused by your last post.

    In order for a team to be quarantined, there has to be a for-sure positively sick player or staff member, likely multiples. Those sick persons came into contact with the entire team. No matter how often the other team members are tested in the next 14 days, they may have been infected, but their incubation period may still conclude in the future. In other words, they may come down with the virus even though they tested negative for two days or more – maybe as many as 13 days.

    However, if they return to work inside of 14 days, how do we know there will not be another outbreak from the originally exposed group? Isn’t that what just happened in Milwaukee? They had two straight days of all negatives, then the you-know-what hit the fan.

    P.S. This stringent of an approach is NOT what the MLB Ops Manual calls for.

    #134783
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    My point made by an epidemiologist… The key points for me are “variable incubation periods” and “no way around waiting it out.”

    #134784
    Avatar1964cards
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    I would suggest the Cardinals may only get to play 45 games And potentially fewer. Here is how the very rough math looks now …

    A. Restart Thursday versus Detroit … 55 games to be played over 46 dates … normal schedule would be for something like 42 games over 46 dates.
    B. Restart Friday versus White Sox … 55 games to be played over 45 dates … similar answer as Option A.
    C. Restart Monday versus Cubs … 55 games to be played over 42 dates … normal schedule would be something like 38 games over 42 dates.
    D. Restart Thursday versus Cincinnati …. 55 games over 39 dates … normal schedule would be something like 35 games 36 games.

    I feel like MLB is at a tipping point with the Cardinals. They will have to start cancelling versus rescheduling games. It is simply not equitable or safe to have a team play every day thru the end of the year with a heavy dose in double headers in that schedule.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Avatar1964cards.
    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Avatar1964cards.
    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Avatar1964cards.
    #134789
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    The implication in the following tweet is really a bad take, IMO.

    The Cardinals are in quarantine. Many players are sick. So the solution is to bring a replacement team of minor leaguers, most of whom are not even on the roster, and start playing? They would have to use minor league coaches, too, since the entire St. Louis staff is in quarantine, as well. This makes absolutely no practical sense.

    When the Cardinals are allowed to reform again, they will add players from Springfield as needed to backfill new IL moves. In the meantime, then yes, the best thing these players can do is to stay away from Busch Stadium and keep practicing in Springfield.

    #134791
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    More Monday news. Note that the Pirates could conceivably still fly in Monday morning and play that night. While perhaps very low odds, it hasn’t yet been officially ruled out.

    #134792
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    Well if the whole team quarantines each time a person gets a positive we may as well fold the tent and go home now. But if there is no room for a false positive – as defined by multiple negatives run shortly after the positive, we will in all probability, truly be quarantined until a vaccine comes out.

    Brian, I made a poor argument for how to handle false positives in that last post. I am hereby dealing myself out of this particular discusson as I hope to never be a positive. We just found out that the whole family two houses away from us has the bug and they seem to be bringing more and more relatives in to care for them – I didn’t say they were the brightest bulbs in the box but since their mailbox and ours are attached together we bring out disinfectant and wear mask and gloves just to get the mail.

    #134793
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    MM3, may you and everyone reading this remain safe!

    #134794
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    1964, your examples do a good job of illustrating the scheduling problem and how it would seem unfair to require the Cardinals to play so many doubleheaders. However, other posters have suggested that it would not be fair to other teams if the Cardinals are allowed to play fewer games if their winning percentage puts them into the playoffs ahead of other teams that play all 60. Is there some middle ground or will this become a major point of controversy in 2020?

    #134795
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    So Molina did show symptoms, but is apparently not among those hardest hit.

    #134796
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #134797
    Avatar858booyah
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    If the Covid spread can be contained then yes it would be unfair that the Cardinals play less games than others. So the league will likely make them play as many games as possible. It might not be 60 but the league could very well schedule DH on days off and basically tell the team “too bad”.

    Like I said before many of these players played travel ball in their youth and had some of the same schedules in college playing multiple games over a short period. Playing for the love of the game. Now that some of them are making in some cases millions of dollars I don’t think that should get in the way of making up games. I know the mlbpa likely won’t agree but right now I don’t think they can do much about the schedule.

    Right now you’re hearing conflicting stories about the pirates series. Rumors say want to cancel or the league may want them to play Tuesday. My feeling is the league would like to play Tuesday but they want to give them more time to see if it spreads. Double Header Wednesday I would say would be on the table but the issue becomes they’ve got another one Thursday. They may just have to deal with fact that they may indeed have to play b2b twin bills if they’re allowed to resume. Not ideal in any situation but the team may just have to deal with it.

    #134798
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    858 said:

    It might not be 60 but the league could very well schedule DH on days off and basically tell the team “too bad”.

    With the first seven games missed already rescheduled, the Cardinals have only three more off days the entire season. And one of those off-days is this Thursday, just four days from now.

    When you consider playing on off days, you have to consider travel for both teams. Unless the two teams were already supposed to meet the day before or the day immediately after the open day, it could mean travel for a “two-game series in one day” – with immediate travel both the night before and the night of the two new games, with other games already scheduled on the days before and after. That would be a real logistical problem – to play what could be four games in three days in three different cities.

    My bigger point is that it is going to be much more complicated than just filling the open days with makeup games.

    #134799
    Avatar858booyah
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    Yes I have read that some players are showing symptoms. It would figure Molina would show some because he’s older.

    I’ll be honest with everyone and say I am now convinced that I had covid in February. I went to the doctor in late February for an unrelated issue. My doctor took my temperature and said “you realize your temperature is 101″ and I said to him ” I just thought I was warm because of the weather”. We had a couple conferences that had attendees from around the world and I had to maneuver around the banquet spaces several times and had to be around these people. Most of them didn’t wear masks or social distance. Lucky for me because of the unrelated issue I was pretty much work and home to bed for about a month after and I worked in an area where I don’t have much interaction with guest and employees at times because of my job but sometimes I had to go to the front of the house for things. So I don’t think I spread it but because this unrelated issue came back about a month ago and my temp was around 97 when work took it. I can put 2+2 together.

    #134800
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    858, I don’t know if you give blood regularly, but if you do, the Red Cross now tests donations for presence of the COVID antibodies. And they tell the donor afterward the result. In my case, it was negative. A positive would have suggested I might have had the virus previously. Nothing is certain, though.

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