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Let’s look at a AAA comparison –
O’Neill – .267/.339/.554/.893
Carlson – .361/.418/.681/1.099
Arozarena – .292/.379/.466/.845We have one unproven catcher on the 40man in Knizner.
I’d prefer a veteran presence to 50/50 time share with Knizner, rather than Yadi. Jason Castro would be my choice.
Lol. Carlson’s tiny sample at AAA means absolutely nothing. You may as well quote Little League stats. I know you’re doing the usual bccran “I choose this player I like so I will make him look good and cherry pick the worst to make this other guy I don’t like look bad”…but come on.
That’s true stl25… MLB stats and awards may not lead to success in the following years. All players’ performances don’t match their baseball card from year to year. We have a few good examples on our squad. So “projections” are just objective guesses and I put little faith in them.
25 – I don’t consider it cherry picking when I talk about the extraordinary awards given out by Baseball America to Carlson and Arozarena. Do you?
14 – if you don’t put much credence in Milb upper level stats and awards, you’re probably at odds with most organization’s scouting departments.
bcc… that’s not what I was saying. Its outlet projections that I don’t give much weight to. I’m with you on the MiLB upper level stats as long as there is progression. A less so on awards.
And how does Carlson being named to the Baseball America all outfield team help him hit in the majors? It sure didn’t help him in 2020.
If you want to look at AAA comparison, how about just using AAA for just the Cardinals.
O’Neill – .282/.346/.604/.950 in 600 PAs
Carlson – .361/.418/.681/1.099 in 79 PAsHow much would you be willing to bet on whether or not Carlson’s numbers would remain that high after 600 PAs?
Forsch – you’re barking up the wrong tree.
Carlson is a far better prospect than O’Neill. The scouts know better than you.
You’re wasting your time.I don’t need to pass on anything, Forsch. Carlson was rated by BA as one of the 3 top outfielders in the minor leagues in 2019. There are 210 minor league teams. 3 outfielders per team would be 630 starting outfielders. Please don’t try to compare him to O’Neill. It’s an exercise in futility for you.
It’s an exercise in futility for you.
Nice condescending remark.
Just for the record, Tyler O’Neill was on the 2016 Baseball America All Star team. He was one of the top 3 rated outfielders. Maybe it wasn’t that bad of a comparison, after all.
Until Carlson starts hitting well in the major leagues, he is just as much a hole in the outfield as O’Neill is for a World Series contending team.
Fair enough, Forsch. Apologies for the condescending remark.
I’d like to see TO be the answer in LF.
I like his upside a lot. How he can keep his power up and Ks down is the key. He struggled with it in 2020.O’Neill and Carlson are both former or current top 50 prospects. Both have high ceilings. O’Neill has more power potential and a better glove, in all likelihood, due to his speed. Carlson is more of a well rounded player whose eye will allow him to run higher batting averages and OBPs. It’s absurd that his argument has devolved to the point where we disdain certain players because they’re not the guy we are defending.
If I had my druthers, we’d start O’Neill-Bader-Carlson in 2021 and let the chips fall where they may. Or perhaps trade Bader for Nimmo.
Since the Cardinals came in last in doubles, home runs, and total bases in all of MLB in 2020, and they aren’t going to get much power out of the infield and catcher except for Goldy and PDJ in 2021, I could see a 2021 outfield of O’Neill-Carlson-Fowler. Then you have to go outside the organization to replace Fowler in 2022 (unless somehow Williams develops). Plug that hole until someone like Torres arrives.
BC, I don’t get why you wouldn’t go with the better defender if both are gonna be similar hitters? Unless you do think Fowler or Bader are gonna be way outside of the 100+/-10 wRC+ that I suspect they both may end up. I think there’s room in the OF for all of them to get plate appearances (2200 is the average for the three OF positions):
Carlson 600+ (starts every day (150 games) in RF or CF)
O’Neill 500 (starts most every day (120-130 games) in LF)
Bader 400 (starts 100ish times in CF, and late inning defensive replacement)
Fowler 400 (Starts some RF, some LF-against lefties especially, some DH)
Thomas 200 (Fill in for injuries at all three positions, spot starts, pinch hits, Memphis shuttle)
“Others” 100 (Emergency stuff, pinch hits)Also, I agree with you about going outside in 2021. If we couldn’t swing a trade for a young OFer, my next choice would be Michael Conforto if he hits free agency. He’d probably cost $25M a year but the power bat would fit nicely in the #4 spot.
25 –
I just feel that the Cardinals will probably play Carpenter and Fowler because they’re paying them so much. So that puts
Fowler and Carlson in the outfield most days. Both are switch hitters. So that leaves one outfield spot open. Defense or no defense, Bader has a hard time hitting right handed pitchers. That puts him on the bench most of the time. It’s up to TO to fish or cut bait in LF.If I had to make the call, I would DFA Williams, yes. I don’t think that the Cards would do that. He may be the 5th OFer, starting the season in that “others” basket. Perhaps they try to sneak him into the minors at some point. Maybe he’d be a trade candidate for a low budget team willing to take a chance.
2 catchers-Yadi/replacement and Knizner
6/5 IFers-Goldy, Edman, Sosa, Dejong, Carp, FA?
5/6 OFers-Carlson, O’Neill, Bader, Fowler, Thomas/Williams/Ravelo/FA?That leaves 13 pitchers
When comparing Carlson and O’Neill many scouts go to the games and watch (sorry for the sarcasm, but…). There is little doubt that Carlson is a sweet-swinging budding star in my mind. He overcomes obstacles and makes adjustments. O’Neill may improve and become Gorman Thomas, but EVERYONE would take Lance Berkman over Gorman Thomas.
Tyler O’Neill’s pathetic adjustment to cut down on strike outs last season sent him spiraling down in my estimation. Frankly it was hard to watch.
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