November 28, 2020 at 9:24 am #148359
Let’s look at a AAA comparison –
O’Neill – .267/.339/.554/.893
Carlson – .361/.418/.681/1.099
Arozarena – .292/.379/.466/.845November 28, 2020 at 9:59 am #148363
We have one unproven catcher on the 40man in Knizner.
I’d prefer a veteran presence to 50/50 time share with Knizner, rather than Yadi. Jason Castro would be my choice.November 28, 2020 at 10:01 am #148364
Lol. Carlson’s tiny sample at AAA means absolutely nothing. You may as well quote Little League stats. I know you’re doing the usual bccran “I choose this player I like so I will make him look good and cherry pick the worst to make this other guy I don’t like look bad”…but come on.November 28, 2020 at 10:02 am #148365Brian WaltonKeymasterPaid - Annual
Don’t forget new roster addition Ivan Herrera… who of course is unproven, too.November 28, 2020 at 10:40 am #14836814NyquisTParticipant
That’s true stl25… MLB stats and awards may not lead to success in the following years. All players’ performances don’t match their baseball card from year to year. We have a few good examples on our squad. So “projections” are just objective guesses and I put little faith in them.November 28, 2020 at 10:44 am #148369
25 – I don’t consider it cherry picking when I talk about the extraordinary awards given out by Baseball America to Carlson and Arozarena. Do you?November 28, 2020 at 10:47 am #148370
Good catch BW. I didn’t scroll down far enough on the roster matrix to get to Palm Beach!November 28, 2020 at 11:31 am #148372
14 – if you don’t put much credence in Milb upper level stats and awards, you’re probably at odds with most organization’s scouting departments.November 29, 2020 at 9:04 am #14840514NyquisTParticipant
bcc… that’s not what I was saying. Its outlet projections that I don’t give much weight to. I’m with you on the MiLB upper level stats as long as there is progression. A less so on awards.November 29, 2020 at 9:55 am #148409
And how does Carlson being named to the Baseball America all outfield team help him hit in the majors? It sure didn’t help him in 2020.November 29, 2020 at 10:21 am #148410
If you want to look at AAA comparison, how about just using AAA for just the Cardinals.
O’Neill – .282/.346/.604/.950 in 600 PAs
Carlson – .361/.418/.681/1.099 in 79 PAs
How much would you be willing to bet on whether or not Carlson’s numbers would remain that high after 600 PAs?November 29, 2020 at 4:17 pm #148434
Forsch – you’re barking up the wrong tree.
Carlson is a far better prospect than O’Neill. The scouts know better than you.
You’re wasting your time.November 29, 2020 at 6:21 pm #148436
I figured you would pass on that.November 29, 2020 at 7:56 pm #148437
I don’t need to pass on anything, Forsch. Carlson was rated by BA as one of the 3 top outfielders in the minor leagues in 2019. There are 210 minor league teams. 3 outfielders per team would be 630 starting outfielders. Please don’t try to compare him to O’Neill. It’s an exercise in futility for you.November 29, 2020 at 8:50 pm #148438
It’s an exercise in futility for you.
Nice condescending remark.
Just for the record, Tyler O’Neill was on the 2016 Baseball America All Star team. He was one of the top 3 rated outfielders. Maybe it wasn’t that bad of a comparison, after all.
Until Carlson starts hitting well in the major leagues, he is just as much a hole in the outfield as O’Neill is for a World Series contending team.November 30, 2020 at 7:29 am #148446
Fair enough, Forsch. Apologies for the condescending remark.
I’d like to see TO be the answer in LF.
I like his upside a lot. How he can keep his power up and Ks down is the key. He struggled with it in 2020.November 30, 2020 at 7:42 am #148448
O’Neill and Carlson are both former or current top 50 prospects. Both have high ceilings. O’Neill has more power potential and a better glove, in all likelihood, due to his speed. Carlson is more of a well rounded player whose eye will allow him to run higher batting averages and OBPs. It’s absurd that his argument has devolved to the point where we disdain certain players because they’re not the guy we are defending.
If I had my druthers, we’d start O’Neill-Bader-Carlson in 2021 and let the chips fall where they may. Or perhaps trade Bader for Nimmo.November 30, 2020 at 8:33 am #148464
Since the Cardinals came in last in doubles, home runs, and total bases in all of MLB in 2020, and they aren’t going to get much power out of the infield and catcher except for Goldy and PDJ in 2021, I could see a 2021 outfield of O’Neill-Carlson-Fowler. Then you have to go outside the organization to replace Fowler in 2022 (unless somehow Williams develops). Plug that hole until someone like Torres arrives.November 30, 2020 at 8:46 am #148465
BC, I don’t get why you wouldn’t go with the better defender if both are gonna be similar hitters? Unless you do think Fowler or Bader are gonna be way outside of the 100+/-10 wRC+ that I suspect they both may end up. I think there’s room in the OF for all of them to get plate appearances (2200 is the average for the three OF positions):
Carlson 600+ (starts every day (150 games) in RF or CF)
O’Neill 500 (starts most every day (120-130 games) in LF)
Bader 400 (starts 100ish times in CF, and late inning defensive replacement)
Fowler 400 (Starts some RF, some LF-against lefties especially, some DH)
Thomas 200 (Fill in for injuries at all three positions, spot starts, pinch hits, Memphis shuttle)
“Others” 100 (Emergency stuff, pinch hits)
Also, I agree with you about going outside in 2021. If we couldn’t swing a trade for a young OFer, my next choice would be Michael Conforto if he hits free agency. He’d probably cost $25M a year but the power bat would fit nicely in the #4 spot.November 30, 2020 at 9:20 am #148477
I just feel that the Cardinals will probably play Carpenter and Fowler because they’re paying them so much. So that puts
Fowler and Carlson in the outfield most days. Both are switch hitters. So that leaves one outfield spot open. Defense or no defense, Bader has a hard time hitting right handed pitchers. That puts him on the bench most of the time. It’s up to TO to fish or cut bait in LF.November 30, 2020 at 9:27 am #148479
Has this discussion already DFA’d out of options Williams?November 30, 2020 at 9:49 am #148481
If I had to make the call, I would DFA Williams, yes. I don’t think that the Cards would do that. He may be the 5th OFer, starting the season in that “others” basket. Perhaps they try to sneak him into the minors at some point. Maybe he’d be a trade candidate for a low budget team willing to take a chance.
2 catchers-Yadi/replacement and Knizner
6/5 IFers-Goldy, Edman, Sosa, Dejong, Carp, FA?
5/6 OFers-Carlson, O’Neill, Bader, Fowler, Thomas/Williams/Ravelo/FA?
That leaves 13 pitchersNovember 30, 2020 at 9:58 am #148483
Would they bring Dean back?November 30, 2020 at 10:00 am #148484
Dean still has an option year, so I would have to think he starts the year at Memphis.November 30, 2020 at 10:25 am #148488Nigel TParticipantPaid - Three Months
When comparing Carlson and O’Neill many scouts go to the games and watch (sorry for the sarcasm, but…). There is little doubt that Carlson is a sweet-swinging budding star in my mind. He overcomes obstacles and makes adjustments. O’Neill may improve and become Gorman Thomas, but EVERYONE would take Lance Berkman over Gorman Thomas.
Tyler O’Neill’s pathetic adjustment to cut down on strike outs last season sent him spiraling down in my estimation. Frankly it was hard to watch.
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