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I thought this was a good comparison; Molina and Burleson both had 1 Big League triple by the age of 25…
I thought this was a good comparison; Molina and Burleson both had 1 Big League triple by the age of 25…
Must have been generous scorekeepers . . .
Comparing Molina with almost 2,000 major league plate appearances by the time he was 25 to Burleson who has around 400?
Is anybody else impressed with Burleson’s defensive play in LF? Is he becoming at least an average left fielder? He also has a fairly strong, accurate arm. I still would like to see more home run power from him as a corner outfielder. I feel he has the ability to do that.
I haven’t seen enough of ST games, but I don’t think he’ll ever be more than a marginally serviceable LF’er who’s lack of athletic ability could present a genuine liability in the OF at any time during the course of a game. If he proves he can hit, I think he’s a 1B’man or DH.
One of the announcers today mentioned that Burleson is a good athlete. Or something to that effect. He made a really nice catch today.
Comparing Molina with almost 2,000 major league plate appearances by the time he was 25 to Burleson who has around 400?
My post speaks for itself: it compares their hitting *profiles* as high-chase%/high-contact%/low-BB%/ low-selectivity hitters. And it does so in the context of trying to explain why a low K% in the abstract doesn’t tell you much, and why the particular profile I highlighted usually doesn’t result in particularly good offensive production unless you have a consistently outlier-level BABIP.
Comparing those *specific* aspects of two hitting profiles is not the same thing as comparing two players overall or comparing their careers–in fact, I explicitly noted in the post that it was an “illustration of [a] point.” I’m sure you understand all of that Cranny, so I’m not clear what motivates your rather odd, inapposite comment above.
I’m predicting a very solid season for Burleson both offensively and defensively. One of the few things I like about the Oli extension is that Oli seems to really value Burleson as a player and as a good teammmate.
Great. On what do you base that prediction? Anything in particular you can point to? Stats? Peripherals? Statcast data? What are you predicting his BABIP will be in 2024 (and why?), since his offensive production is almost entirely dependent on it?
shady, i am interested in what you see as “very solid season” from burleson both offensively and defensively? what does a “solid” season look like for you? how many ABs? what sort of stat line? how many games played in the OF? is a solid season actually producing or just putting the bat on the ball, even when it just leads to an out? i’m really interested in knowing. you seem to be the expert on him, and i want to learn from the best.
I saw enough of him last season in LF to convince me that his plus size and minus top speed don’t suit him for a Big League OF. He also looked to be slow to pick up the vector of the baseball on several occasions. The fact that he’s left handed and is touted to have a plus arm persuades me to think he could regularly man up at 1B, but the net bottom line is that he has to prove he can generate adequate offensive production.
1toughdominican, the advanced metrics strongly corroborate your eye-test:
In only 386.1 innings in the OF last year:
-4 DRS
-2.3 UZR
-7 OAAHe was a BIG liability in the field. I suppose some people may believe losing 15 pounds will suddenly make him at least a competent defender, but I’m skeptical. -15 pounds aren’t going to make him run much faster, and they won’t help him take better routes to the ball. He’s going to have to put in a lot of work to improve the situation.
RBK – What I don’t think can be factored in is that the first 500-600 major league at bats are developmental. Getting accustomed to major league pitchers, having the pitchers find weaknesses, readjusting to counter that, etc. That’s why I don’t think comparing 2,000 PAs to another players first 400 PAs in the majors is a great comparison. Just my humble opinion.
You were just extolling Burleson’s virtues based on a whole 470 PAs in AAA…
And I’m not comparing results, which are volatile in smaller samples, but rather certain peripheral metrics, which tend to stabilize much more quickly. Further, the main point of my prior post(s) was that Burleson is going to have to *change* his offensive game in order to be more productive, which apparently you now agree with since you’re suggesting some of these metrics could change (I agree, though some of them are stubborn characteristics for most players).
For what it’s worth, my gut feeling is Burleson is one of the finest pure hitters in the Cardinals organization. Now at the MLB level. And he seems to be advancing his defensive prowess in LF. I guess time will tell.
Maybe he’ll pan out to be another “Phat Elvis”…He could flat out rip the baseball. He looks a little like Berky…Haha!
In a clutch RBI situation against a brilliant RHP. I’m taking Burly, right now, over anybody on the team. Maybe Donovan is right there with him. Who would you CNers prefer? Some, you might prefer, are much more vulnerable to the K than Burly is against a power RH pitcher.
In a clutch RBI situation against a brilliant RHP. I’m taking Burly, right now, over anybody on the team.
Burleson situational splits (OPS):
Bases empty: .732
Men on base: .639
RISP: .554
2-out, RISP: .322
Late and close: .518
High leverage: .351He’s actually been *worse* in clutch situations.
Goldschmidt and Nootbaar are much more vulnerable to the inning ending K against the great RHP pitchers than Burleson.
We really won’t know how good Burleson is as a hitter until he gets more plate appearances under his belt.
Which is odd because he gets it started and through the zone nicely and with what looks to be a balanced and controlled rip. My guess is that he’ll eventually generate enough offensive production to stay around longer than a minute or two, but my guess means less than last season’s Grapefruit League standings.
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