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Well, maybe not:
From Goold chat:
Q: A comment was made on the radio recently that DeWitt could be very sensitive, because of his place in baseball among the owners, of setting the high watermark with a Harper deal. Thus, hamstringing other owners and the sport going forward. Is that true?
A: That is partially true, yes. That pressure is felt by other owners, too. They may not have articulated it. DeWitt has. To his credit.
Reality check time.
I’ve been thinking about the Goold chat answer two posts above.
MLB has already built into the system team financial checks and balances – significant enough that top-payroll teams have curtailed spending as a result. But if any team can make signing Harper to a record contract work, who should discourage them – and what are their real motives in doing so?
Is it admirable or is it implied collusion by the owners?
Is it real (would paying Harper “hamstring” the team or the game?) or it is an excuse to try to head off fan disappointment when Harper goes elsewhere?It’s fairly ridiculous that when MLB revenues top $10 billion a year, owners are worried about paying their players a slightly bigger sliver of that. So yeah, it reeks of collusion.
Also, for BDW it’s to set up the inevitable failure as a softer blow.
Well, there you go. Signing Harper might help retain Mikolas.
Whoops. A retraction.
Magic Johnson says he did not go to Las Vegas to meet with Bryce Harper. Our original story has been updated to reflect this and includes a quote from Johnson: https://t.co/AfeLtkcxtK
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 4, 2018
I’m thinking this might take the Nats out of the Harper sweepstakes.
Patrick Corbin has agreed to a 6-year, $140 million contract with #Nationals, source confirms @JeffPassan report on guaranteed value. @MLB @MLBNetwork
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 4, 2018
I do not want Harper, not at anything more than $25M per year. He’s been a 4.5 f-WAR player for his career, and 4 WAR at B-Ref. This means that if he is supplanting a 2 WAR player in the outfield, he is only going to be adding 2-2.5 wins per year. That’s a cost of $10-12M per win if you got him for just $25M per year — and we already know that no one is getting Harper for $25M a year.
This is not a small point, about who Harper dislodges from the outfield. Harper might be “worth” the free agent price for some organizations, if he went to a place with a truly rotten MLB outfield and lousy farm system. But neither is remotely the case in St. Louis. (Heck, the Cards have so many average-or-better outfielders both now and for the future, they had to trade three of them away, in Piscotty, Pham, and Grichuk.)
A team at St. Louis’ player payroll level cannot pay more than $10-12M per wins on the open market. It just doesn’t work. They need to be decidedly more efficient than that, as they were when they signed Final Boss and Miles Mikolas. And as they were when they traded Jon Jay for Jedd Gyorko. Those three moves have added victories to the team at a cost of roughly $3M per win upgrade.
Of course, $3M per win upgrade is more of a best case scenario, rather than a realistic standard. Maybe $6-7M per win upgrade would be a plausible goal, on the free agent market. And a Harper contract has no chance whatever of meeting that goal. If the Birds want to go big, really big, they should wait for Trout in two years. Even at $55-60M per year, he might be a relative bargain.
One other thing, is that I honestly don’t understand the premise in the first place, that St. Louis MUST add any offense at all. They were 4th in the N.L. in runs per game at 4.7, and the hitting was actually better than that, because they played in a nasty pitcher’s park.
The St. Louis road OPS was 67 points higher than at home. They homered 47% more often on the road. They doubled/tripled 27% more often. In fact, in the National League only the Dodgers had a higher OPS on the road.
Finally, they scored 5.1 runs per game over the second half, after dumping Mabry/Matheny/Mueller. (They scored just 4.4. per game with M/M/M.) So it’s already at least a very good offensive lineup.
Improving any aspect of a baseball team from very good to great is difficult and expensive. That’s what the Birds are trying to do if they focus on the lineup.
Improving from rotten to merely average is much easier and much cheaper. That’s what the Cards need to do with the wretched bullpen.That’s a cost of $10-12M per win if you got him for just $25M per year
A team at St. Louis’ player payroll level cannot pay more than $10-12M per wins on the open market.
Of course, $3M per win upgrade is more of a best case scenario, rather than a realistic standard. Maybe $6-7M per win upgrade would be a plausible goal,
Statements like these drive me nuts. When talking about $/Win, that is a load of ______. Assembling a baseball team is PORTFOLIO THEORY, it is not INDIVIDUAL ASSET PRICING.
The Cardinals can spend right up to the luxury tax and still be profitable.
Take your WORST positions, and try to upgrade them EVERY year. Last year, the WORST position was right field. DUMP DEXTER FOWLER.
Statements like these drive me nuts. When talking about $/Win, that is a load of ______. Assembling a baseball team is PORTFOLIO THEORY, it is not INDIVIDUAL ASSET PRICING.
You’ve introduced some investment/economics jargon, which is fine. But if you would like to rebut anything I said, about the Cardinals, Bryce Harper, or how the St. Louis team needs to build their talent base, please do so with specifics. Thanks.
The Cardinals can spend right up to the luxury tax and still be profitable.
I don’t care how much profit the Cards make, not even a little. But I am certain that they operate within a payroll budget every single year. And thus, it is imperative that the club be efficient, in order to maximize wins. That’s all I care about, maximizing wins — but they cannot do that, unless they are generally efficient with their resources. Talent accrual only works when you don’t overpay.
Here’s what I mean. Let’s say tomorrow’s Post-Dispatch headline reads: “Cards trade for Mike Trout! Contract extension of ten years included as part of deal!” Best of all possible news, right?
But then you read the article and find out that the Cards traded Flaherty, Reyes, Hicks, Mikolas, Bader, O’Neill, and DeJong, to acquire Trout. And the contract extension is for 10 years and $900M.
As exciting and great as Trout is, this would be a terribly self-destructive overpay by the Cards, in terms of both talent and money.
Take your WORST positions, and try to upgrade them EVERY year. Last year, the WORST position was right field. DUMP DEXTER FOWLER.
Couldn’t agree more, about dumping Fowler. But as mentioned in my earlier remarks, Harper does not upgrade RF by nearly enough, not when compared to either Tyler O’Neill or Jose Martinez, who both look to be worth at least 2 WAR this year, and in the case of O’Neill quite possibly much more than that.
Then beyond this season, after Ozuna departs there’s more 2+ WAR outfield talent down on the farm. Dylan Carlson in particular.
Last season, the Cardinals scored
759 runs. The Cubs scored 761 runs. The Brewers scored 754 runs.
Even with Fowler a bust, Ozuna taking several months to heat up, and DeJong out for 6 weeks.The Cards starters had a combined ERA of 3.52. The Cubs’ starters had a combined ERA of 3.84. The Brewers’ starters had a combined ERA of 3.92.
IMHO it’s the bullpen. Not Harper. Not Goldschmidt. The bullpen.
Cubs relievers – 3.35 ERA
Brewers relievers – 3.47 ERA
Cards relievers – 4.38 ERAWe go to the last day of the season with a shot to make the playoffs with a bullpen like that?
Why spend $350 million dollars on one player like BH when we already score just as many runs as the Cubs and Brewers?The bullpen is absolutely an issue. However, that doesn’t mean that you don’t take the long view and look to solidify the offense however you can.
Harper gives you two things: good on base skills and certainty of said skills. I’d almost guarantee he OBPs .380 or better every year through his early 30s, and likely even higher. He also has a good shot to hit for a lot of power, as lefties seem to fare better in Busch.
Now, is he worth $350M+? In a vacuum…probably. 35 million per year may be slightly above average player money in ten years. So if you could lock up solid star and occasional mega-star Harper and put him in the 3 spot for 7 years, then I don’t think it’s a *bad* strategy.
But it’s not going to happen. So I guess we can hope for Goldy and one of our prospects to meet their great potential. We’re overdue for a true star from the system.
After three straight years of the Cards missing the playoffs, why would anyone think they need to improve in just one area – whether right field or relief? Is there some reason to “put all their eggs in one basket”, to use BDW III’s term? That is what he said when asked if they would take on a huge contract like that. Don’t get Harper and multiple areas can be addressed is what he implied.
P.S. I’d give very, very high odds that Kimbrel will not be a Cardinal – and I am fine with that.
I would find it very high odds that the Cards do NOTHING at all impactful and the FO will give some line of crap saying well we tried lets hope for the best…
Is it real (would paying Harper “hamstring” the team or the game?) or it is an excuse to try to head off fan disappointment when Harper goes elsewhere?
Its normal for team followers to want to see player movement for their team. Any Card fan that is disappointed when the team doesn’t get every big name star has himself/herself to blame. I hold no hope for a big acquisition… IF or when there is a monumental trade I’m damn surprised and usually somewhat angry.
Lower expectations for Card fans is the way to go.
I don’t want Harper either because it would limit what else we could do.
Get Goldy, sign Britton, plus another reliever then head to Jupiter.
Everyone wants new faces to heighten excitement for the upcoming season. But in reality, we aren’t that far away from a division title if we tighten up the bullpen. Especially on the left side. I’m a lot more excited to see how DeJong, Bader, and O’Neill can do over a full season than spending a ridiculous amount of money over a decade with Harper. With Goldschmidt (including an extension), however, it could be a different financial story and he could be a good mentor for some of our younger players over the next 5 years. Especially as Yadi, Carp, and Waino wind it down.
After three straight years of the Cards missing the playoffs, why would anyone think they need to improve in just one area – whether right field or relief? Is there some reason to “put all their eggs in one basket”, to use BDW III’s term?
Before the offseason began, I was in favor of adding Donaldson, Kikuchi, and 2 or 3 relievers via trade. But I was very much against Harper, Machado, Moustakas, and pretty much every other position player, because none of them offered the heft of plausible upgrade that Donaldson did, on such a short contract, to boot.
But now that Donaldson is off the table, I do think the Cards should put all their eggs in the bullpen basket. Because of the principle I cited a few posts ago:
Improving any aspect of a baseball team from very good to great is difficult and expensive. That’s what the Birds are trying to do if they focus on the lineup.
Improving from rotten to merely average is much easier and much cheaper. That’s what the Cards need to do with the wretched bullpen.
Any offense can be improved upon, at any time. But this team has one real *need*, and that’s the bullpen. Dead last in the N.L. in Win Probability Added in 2018. Third from last in ERA. Awful first half, awful second half, and a 5.09 September ERA. They NEED an overhaul in the bullpen, not a star bat.
Any offense can be improved upon, at any time. But this team has one real *need*, and that’s the bullpen. Dead last in the N.L. in Win Probability Added in 2018. Third from last in ERA. Awful first half, awful second half, and a 5.09 September ERA. They NEED an overhaul in the bullpen, not a star bat.
Bob, do you think there’s any chance that the bullpen can improve naturally? That is, without making a bunch of additions? With better health from the expected rotation, we could see Gant, Gomber, Poncedeleon and Reyes added to the pen. Better health from Leone (who has been very good at times), and a bit of maturity from Hicks and Hudson…it has to be at least within the realm of possibility that they could be average or better through some better luck, right?
Not that I don’t think the team should upgrade the pen…I would love to see a Wipeout lefty added, for one. And a solid closer like Robertson or Miller. Then I’d be happy.
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