2026 TCNs Top 50 Prospect Countdown

There are two things that Rincon illustrates.

The first is that an uptick in performance leading into a physical breakdown has to be taken with a huge grain of salt. I have often mentioned that assessing and rating a pitcher based on amazing flashes in between IL stints is just playing make believe. What matters is how effective is he pitching in a way that his body can tolerate. But some, many, like to play make believe. As Brian said, it wasn’t the arm. So that at least is good.

The second is the slow mover issue. Yeah, but he was young coming in. Yeah, but there was a lost season. The yeah, buts don’t matter. A player has so much time to reach the promised land, and his trajectory has to get him there in that amount of time. Progress is either fast enough, or it is too slow.

So we have a slow mover who achieved an uptick but hurt himself in the process. As Brian noted, the time line means a move to the pen would make sense. We will have to see if that happens, and how he takes to it. And we have to see if he maintains the improved performance whist staying on the field all year. That could all work out well, but I suggest not getting too lathered up. We have the happy circumstance of having quite a few interesting arms in the AA-AAA space this coming year. Rincon, and the org, will have to navigate that unfamiliar landscape.

If Rincon can come back healthy and effective in AA, his value would spike, and one possibility would be to cash that in and let someone else deal with the time line and durability risks.

I know. I know. I’ve always loved his control and his ability to continuously improve himself. Plus he’s animated on the mound and fun to watch.

For the record, I hate the idea of making him a reliever. He’s shown his arm is at least durable enough to sustain starter innings. I’d start him at AA despite the crowd and hope he does well enough to put him on the 40-man over the offseason. Then, he becomes starting pitcher #6 or 7 for the MLB team while he continues to improve at Memphis. He’s a good stopgap in case of injuries and if he continues to refine himself like he’s shown he can do, then he might make it as a permanent rotation member someday.

Brian and Jnevel offer competing development paths for Rincon. I can see either working out, depending. I lean toward keeping in a starter role to begin the year. The reason is whenever you think you have enough starters, you end up not having enough starters. Guys will be getting an extended look in the AAA rotation, and it is likely we will see health and/or performance issues. It seems like there will likely be a need for replacements filtering up. I could easily see him, at the end of the season, being ready to become a AAA rotation mainstay in 2027, which would put him in the running for a 40 man spot. If the guys ahead hold up, then later in the season I could see moving him up to the AAA pen and positioned to help in St. Louis sooner.

ATM. I think it will be less about Rincon’s innings in AA, and more about when/if enough guys ahead of him fizzle, get traded or get hurt. Obviously, we want the best starters we can field in the AAA rotation. If that keeps Rincon out of the AAA rotation, that would be a very positive development. I do not share Brian’s optimism that too many starters ahead will impede his progression, but it will be a positive if it happens.