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The Red Sox media is apparently very happy with the Tyler O’Neill deal…..
Cot’s projects O’Neill’s arbitration figure at $5.85 million, which is $3 million less than Verdugo. Also, the Sox didn’t need to give up much in terms of a return to the Cardinals, sending over depth arms Nick Robertson and Victor Santos. Ian Browne
R Helsley
R Gallegos
L Romeo
L Thompson60+ career IP:
Pallante 176 IP
King 145 IP (reliever only)
Liberatore 96 IPPallante and King are very similar by GB%: Pall.. 69.2%, King 61.4%
Pallante has a starters workload, and reliever IP, in his numbers.
FIP: P 4.22, K 3.86
WHIP: P 1.472, K 1.379
OPS allowed: P .746, K .719
K%: P 15.3%, K 15.9%
BB%: P 9.2%, K 6.4%
SO/W: P 1.66, K 2.48Pallantes’ BB% is inflated
Handedness splits:Pallantes’ BB% is inflated, and driven by vs righties.
Handedness splits:
Vs LHB:
Pall, .654 ops allowed
King, .615 ops allowedVs LHB:
Pall, 21/44 bb/k, 2.10 SO/W
King, 12/35 bb/k, 2.32 SO/WVs RHB:
Pall, .830 ops allowed
King, .767Vs RHB:
Pall, 49/72 bb/k, 1.47 SO/W
King, 28/64 bb/k, 2.69 SO/WPallantes’ ineffectiveness vs righties as the biggest difference between the two ground ball artists.
Adding Pallante and King to Helsley, GG, Thompson and JoJo still leaves two open spots in the pen.
Three righty arms and three lefties as a group.
For their careers, all six have held LHB’s to less than a .700 ops.
.629 Helsley
.652 GG
.551 JoJo
.533 Thompson
.654 Pallante
.615 KingVs RHB’s, only two of six qualify as under a .700 ops allowed, for their career.
.568 Helsley
.586 GG
.821 JoJo
.744 Thompson
.830 Pallante
.767 KingSome have lowered their ops allowed in the most recent season. Career .821 vs RHB, JoJo, held righties to .689 last season.
Others worsened their career marks with a poor 2023 split increase. Pallante at .830 career vs righties, logged a .881 in 2023.
Whomever joins the pen needs to bring a strong vs righty bats history. A saves history wouldn’t hurt either.
Robertson may be more than a depth player. He may be an important part of the Cardinals bullpen for years to come.
2022-2023
IP:
133 Hector Neris
131 Phil Maton
129 David Robertson
127 Hicks
114 Gallegos
110 Robert Stephenson
101 HelsleyFIP:
2.31 Helsley
3.10 Neris
3.56 Robertson
3.59 Gallegos
3.68 Hicks
3.75 Stephenson
4.03 MatonWHIP:
0.859 Helsley
1.032 Neris
1.105 Gallegos
1.115 Stephenson
1.178 Robertson
1.185 Maton
1.339 HicksERA+:
242 Helsley
156 Robertson
150 Neris
118 Maton
111 Gallegos
103 Hicks
102 StephensonaLI: (higher number = higher leverage appearances)
2.149 Robertson
1.81 Helsley
1.62 Gallegos
1.44 Neris
1.36 Hicks
0.98 Stephenson
0.98 MatonSave Situations: (Save and Hold opportunities)
68 Gallegos
66 Neris
66 Robertson
51 Helsley
37 Hicks
32 Stephenson
29 MatonSaves and Holds:
61 Neris (5 saves & 56 holds)
56 Gallegos (24 & 32)
51 Robertson (38 & 13)
42 Helsley (33 & 9)
33 Hicks (12 & 21)
25 Maton (1 & 24)
24 Stephenson (1 & 23)Save and Hold %: (of all save situations)
92.4 Neris
89.2 Hicks
86.2 Maton
82.4 Gallegos
82.4 Helsley
77.3 Robertson
75.0 StephensonCareer ops allowed vs rhb’s:
.543 Hicks
.568 Helsley
.586 Gallegos
.637 Neris
.669 Robertson
.701 Maton
.727 StephensonI don’t see Robertson as an integral part of the Cardinals bullpen or anyone else’s for that matter, for years to come. He pitched 19 innings in 2023 and gave up 15 earned runs for an era of 6.04. That is hardly the swing and miss, lights out pitchers that the Cardinals are apparently looking for. He’s not even depth if depth suggests that the pitcher is actually good. If he is on the opening day roster then the FO truly doesn’t care if they finish last again.
Nate, maybe you should look at his minor league numbers and not judge him by only his first attempt at major league hitters. He seems to have swing and miss stuff and adjusts to the level he is at after a period of time. He MIGHT turn out to be a good pitcher after all.
One concern that I have is that he allowed all 6 inherited runners to score in 2023.
Robertson could easily show up on the opening day roster. The Cardinals have history of fielding guys who are not ready for MLB. Walker, Winn, Liberatore, Pallante, Rom. Certainy , there is no reason to think that establishing dominance at AAA is a requirement. Robertson would be way cheaper than hiring someone qualified for the job. That doesn’t mean it is impossible he would be adequate. Look at Mercado and Palacios, both hired to fill th same role. Of the two, Palacios did quite well and stuck, as unlikely as it seemed when he showed up on the roster. You just never know.
Nate, you are right to want to move on from Robertson after his initial poor showing. The Cardinals ought to move on quickly from others rather than just keeping them around as blockers. As soon as they come up to the big leagues, if they’re not as good a rookie as Michael Wacha was, then they’re never going to make it. Here’s some more debut seasons that should have been moved on from:
Player 1: 13.50 ERA / 4.5 BB/9
Player 2: 5.09 ERA / 4.09 BB/9 / 3-7 Record
Player 3: 5.61 ERA / 4.98 BB/9 / 3-6 Record
Player 4: 6.43 ERA / 3.54 K/9
Player 5: 4.87 ERAFYI – That’s Adam Wainwright, Bob Gibson (2nd full season), Chris Carpenter, John Tudor, and Giovanny Gallegos (just to put a reliever in there).
and for every each player that you mentioned there are hundreds that stay as bad and never make it. We can point at all the success stories but there is a long trail of failures that can’t be ignored.
Oliver that’s true. My point though was that you can’t tell anything by just looking at a young player’s stat line. Most players need adjustment time. Some of them are better equipped than others.
I personally like Robertson. I think he was a better than expected get for O’Neill. He has several really good pitches to work with and he’s young and controllable. But we’ll have to see if he can make that talent work at the highest level.
Jnevel
You are right of course, you never know. But I don’t think there’s any danger of Robertson becoming Bob Gibson or even Gallegos who is slipping badly. Robertson is fodder until they find real pitchers.
The same holds true for Ryan Fernandez, except that Fernandez has to come north with the team or the Cardinals maybe wasted $50K by drafting him in the Rule 5 draft. I’d say that if Robertson and Fernandez are matching up pretty well at spring training, and if there’s only one RH bullpen spot remaining at the end of spring training, Fernandez gets the spot.
One other thing…. Wilking Rodriguez is all healed up from his surgery. The Cardinals drafted him in the 2022 Rule 5 draft because he has a 100 MPH fastball and a nasty curveball. He could win a spot in the bullpen, too.
It looks like what the bullpen really needs is another late inning reliever, preferably a lefty. They’ve got plenty of options for middle inning relief. The 5’9″, Yuki Matsui would seem to fit the bill. Just don’t give him more than 2 or 3 years.
Many mlb pitchers are converting their slider into a sweeper, and it’s being a successful trend. Sonny Gray is a good example.
Nick Robertson is another, who is early in the process, and having recent mixed results. (VEB)
If he makes the pen he will have won the job, if not, RR shows he has 2 option yrs. Have to let that play out, right?
Yuki Matsui, a five-time NPB All-Star lefty reliever, visited the Cardinals in St. Louis on Thursday, per sources. The 28-year-old has 236 saves and a 2.43 ERA in 10 seasons with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles and is considered one of the better free-agent bullpen options.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) December 15, 2023
I thought the stats referred to David Robertson, who might not be as bad as his Miami stint implied. One year at less money than his peers might make sense if we add Matsui instead of Hicks or Maton. Why isn’t Stanek discussed? Isn’t he a local product, like Maton?
Yes, the stats I provided are called out as David Robertson, the closer with 175 career saves.
All ears on Stanek, what ya got?
Maton is a mid-reliever who hasn’t had a history of high leverage appearances.
Gallegos was acquired at the deadline, the season Bud Norris was the closer. GG threw 1 IP w/stl that season.
The followings season Carlos Martinez was the closer and G.G. threw 74 IP.
2020 was a joke.
Alex Reyes was the next closer and GG threw 80 IP.
Next came Helsley as closer and GG logged 59 IP.
Again Helsley closed last season and GG threw 55 IP.
Over the last 3 seasons GG has thrown 194 IP, averaging 65 IP.
Over his last 4 full seasons, GG has thrown 268 IP, averaging 67 IP per season.
Last season GG showed concerning signs of carrying that IP load, under high leverage, as the bullpens mainstay for five seasons. Get the man some help.
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