November 14, 2022 at 2:34 pm #206758
Gorman, Graceffo, and Baez for Murphy is my most painful scenario; Noot, Herrera, and LJ would bring me the least amount of buyers remorse (at least initially)November 14, 2022 at 3:14 pm #206759forsch31ParticipantFree
Gorman, Graceffo and Baez for Murphy and I’m out. I’m not trading Graceffo for Murphy. I would trade Noot, LJ and something for him but I don’t see the As wanting a catcher. They have 2 top catching prospects.November 14, 2022 at 3:42 pm #206760
The A’s could really rebuild their rotation by adding Pallante, Woodford, and Thomas. Add Burleson and Deluzio we have a fair deal favoring the A’s, and we are still huge winners.November 14, 2022 at 4:04 pm #2067611toughdominicanParticipantFree
It’ll be a shame when the A’s no longer play home games in Oakland.November 14, 2022 at 4:13 pm #206762bccranParticipant
Nigel – You do not want to include Burleson in that deal.November 14, 2022 at 4:52 pm #206764
He is the draw. His trade value is the only thing making it pallettable to those on the outside.November 14, 2022 at 4:53 pm #206766
Pallante is the one I don’t want to include. He has Zach Gallen written all over him.November 14, 2022 at 4:57 pm #206768
Burleson is a no trade.November 14, 2022 at 4:59 pm #206769
The A’s should have never been in that dump in that third-world nation city.November 14, 2022 at 5:01 pm #206770
I can see Hudson, Nootbarr and maybe Baez for Murphy but that is probably over paying.November 14, 2022 at 5:48 pm #206775
Of course we overpay for Murphy; he is a huge financial windfall for three years. Each year we acquire two or three extra guys with the difference between Murphy and a Contrares-type deal.
With 15 million extra, you could add LHed reliever Wil Smith, re-sign Dickerson, and bring back Stratton.
Repeat that each year subtracting his increase in salary.November 14, 2022 at 5:52 pm #206776Bob ReedParticipantFree
Nootbaar has been worth 3.8 WAR in his career thus far, per 600 plate appearances, per Baseball-Reference. For context, Bryce Harper over his career has been worth 4.3 WAR/600 (Tyler O. has been worth 4.4 and Dylan Carlson 2.6). I don’t see Lars as one of the trade pieces, as he might be the current Cardinal outfielder most likely to put up a 4-WAR season in 2023, given O’Neill’s injury tendencies.
Murphy should be gettable via some combo of Gorman, Liberatore, Yepez or Burleson, and a low-level sweetener like the strikeout-prone Baez, or Alec Willis or Won-Bin Cho. If the A’s prefer more certainty, they could opt for Donovan over Gorman I suppose. In any case, very little payroll would be added to the Birds, and all of the top prospects should be retained — and a 40-man logjam would be reduced a smidge.
With the modest addition of Murphy’s salary (around 4 million bucks) the club would almost surely still have room to acquire one of the two Japanese stars, Ichiro-lite outfielder Masataka Yoshida or twirler Koudai Senga. Yoshida, by the way was managed by So Taguchi. And had the highest OPS on his team this year. By a margin of 241 points.
As for Burleson, I do think he’s gonna hit MLB pitching. But he’s a lot like Joc Pederson, i.e., no defensive or baserunning value, and probably struggles against lefties too much to be a 150-game regular. (Pederson has been worth 2.0 WAR per 600 plate appearances for his career. Quite useful platoon guy, but not the type to covet.)November 14, 2022 at 5:57 pm #206777
Burleson is a must trade; he will never be worth more than right now. I pray he remains blocked because Carlson, TO, Noot,Yepez,and Walker succeed.
What will Burleson’s value be if he spends considerable time on the bench and shuttles back and forth to Memphis for two or three months?November 14, 2022 at 6:41 pm #2067781toughdominicanParticipantFree
Burleson was worth more before he made his debut. Everyone saw him face Big League pitching.November 14, 2022 at 6:48 pm #206779
I think all of you are giving away too much for Murphy. I would just go after Vazquez and keep our players.November 14, 2022 at 6:55 pm #206780
Murphy is the best available catcher in the last three years. He is to catchers what Goldy is to firstbasemen.November 14, 2022 at 7:04 pm #206781
Bob Reed:You are right on Noot, but that is the point. He makes the most sense from the A’s perspective…unless they are to be the Las Vegas A’s, and then Gorman and Liberatore have greater appeal.November 14, 2022 at 7:41 pm #206783
Murphy isn’t worth anything close to what Goldschmidt was.November 14, 2022 at 8:00 pm #206788jj-cf-stlParticipant
Astros were 28th by bWAR at catcher in 2022, StL was 20th.
StL was 1st as non-pitchers, Astros were 5th.
*Astros were 2nd as pitchers, StL was 22nd*
Knizner and a cheap rental would be fine by me.
If our pitching ranks 22nd with outstanding D support, and a pitcher friendly home park…….
We will be bounced out of the postseason early, until the pitching gets fixed.November 14, 2022 at 8:14 pm #206789
The Cardinals are a consistently good, winning team. As the Phillies just showed, it is all about getting hot.November 14, 2022 at 8:21 pm #206790
My point was to reiterate what was posted earlier about Murphy being a top-five catcher and ascending.
20 plus homers and an OPS above .750 would be my projection over the next three years from a defensively praised catcher is very Goldyesque.November 14, 2022 at 11:43 pm #206827Bob ReedParticipantFree
“I think all of you are giving away too much for Murphy. I would just go after Vazquez and keep our players.”
Depends on what specifically the Cards give in trade, of course. But my personal preference of Gorman + Liberatore + Yepez or Burleson + a sweetener from the rookieball or Low-A level won’t hurt the current MLB team much if at all, barring some horrific rash of injuries.
The emergence of Brendan Donovan, coupled with Arenado’s decision to stay in StL for another half-decade, leaves Nolan Gorman at least somewhat redundant. Liberatore will have zero value to anyone if he repeats the disappointment of his 2022 season. Yepez/Burley can’t reasonably be expected to ever be more than 2-3 WAR ballplayers because of fielding & running limitations. (I shouldn’t lump them together, really. Yepez is atrocious is the field, maybe the single biggest defensive liability in the Majors. [In fact he was exactly that, when I crunched the numbers at Fangraphs in September; the worst defender in MLB, on an inning-for-inning basis.])
As for Murphy v. Vazquez, at B-Ref Murphy has been worth 3.8 WAR per 600 PAs, and Vazquez 1.5.
At the Fangraphs website, Murphy is a 5 WAR player and Vasquez 2.8.
And Murphy is more than four years younger than Vazquez — at a grinding position that obviously tends to age fairly quickly. And Murphy will very, very likely be cheaper than Vazquez in 2023, leaving more payroll flexibility for stronger additional moves.
Murphy’s career OPS+ is 116, and Vazquez’ is 85. That difference of 31 is enormous. It’s the difference between Brendan Donovan and Stan Musial.
Moreover, Sean Murphy may actually be a distinctly better hitter than he appears at first glance. And Vazquez might be distinctly worse. Vazquez’ career home OPS is 82 points better than on the road. On the other hand, Murphy’s career road OPS is 136 points higher than at home. So the difference might be more like Brendan Ryan and Stan Musial.
Nolan Arenado, lifetime road OPS: .818
Sean Murphy, lifetime road OPS: .820
Bob Reed: You are right on Noot, but that is the point. He makes the most sense from the A’s perspective…unless they are to be the Las Vegas A’s, and then Gorman and Liberatore have greater appeal.
Your point is taken, Nigel. But I think the Birds have enough alternative trade chips that they can easily beat any other team’s offer without dealing away Noot, or Walker, Winn, et. al. I could be missing someone, but the only two teams I see who have the depth in their farm systems, plus young talented-but-redundant MLBers, are the Dodgers & Orioles. And those are two of the very few teams who do not need Sean Murphy.November 15, 2022 at 4:50 am #206830blingboyParticipantPaid - Annual
Three things we need to keep in mind talking about Murphy. 1) We will have to out bid some other teams, like maybe the Astros. 2) Oakland is going to want Walker or Winn, and will try to put something with Murphy to entice Mo. 3) We tend to value our favorite prospects more than everyone else values them, so besides Walker and Winn, anyone else will probably have to be on the table.November 15, 2022 at 8:39 am #206840LACardFanParticipantFree
Yes, there are at least 8 teams that have been linked to Murphy.
Toronto has three catchers, will probably trade one for an outfielder.November 15, 2022 at 9:43 am #206841
bb…Waker should never be on the table. Winn for Murphy straight up is doable.
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