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This bumps Matz to the pen waiting for start opportunities. I’m not down on Matz, he was just really bad when he did throw a clunker.
I think Matz should be in the pen. Maybe it would help him stay healthy. I know the Cardinals won’t do it though because of the money owed.
People always say “when he is healthy Matz is pretty good.” Well guess what, he is rarely healthy and he is still being paid while on the IL. And when he is healthy he is very average.
If he bombs again in 2023 we should try to salvage the situation by seeing if he can help us out of the pen. I don’t like eating money to get rid of someone if it can be avoided.
People always say “when he is healthy Matz is pretty good.” Well guess what, he is rarely healthy
2018 30 GS
2019 30 GS
2020 doesn’t matter
2021 29 GSThat looks like decent health, until this year. I know you don’t like the guy, but the “he’s rarely healthy” narrative doesn’t seem accurate. He’s basically making what Andrew Miller made and is the only starter we have signed past 2023 in the rotation.
Throwing out 2020 he is averaging 118 innings per year for his career. That doesn’t scream reliable starter to me.
Healthy or not, I’m not sure Matz’ career could be characterized as pretty good. His 8 season career says a W/L record of 50-51 coupled with an ERA of 4.30 and a tendency to serve up a lot of taters. If I look at that prior to making a decision, I don’t want him.
I’m trying to think of the last time the Cardinals had a LHP who was either a member of the rotation or the BP who could be considered pretty good over a time period of more than a minute or two and the only name I can conjure up is Jaime Garcia.
Throwing out 2020 he is averaging 118 innings per year for his career. That doesn’t scream reliable starter to me.
That’s still far different than “rarely healthy.” Going back 5+ years to determine health at this point isn’t a reliable indicator. He had three pretty healthy non-Covid years in a row prior to this year, which is why the Cards signed him. He pitched more innings those four years than Waino, Stroman, Verlander, Mikolas, Odorizzi, Manaea, Woodruff, Quintana, ave a host of others.
I wasn’t overjoyed with the signing either, but it was fair to predict that the signing would be a modest success from the start. It still very well could be.
Fwiw, I’d be ok with adding a better pitcher and moving him to the pen.
I will gladly lead the cheers for Matz next year if he can revert back to his 2021 numbers. It is nothing personal at all. I never thought it was a good signing but I certainly have nothing personal against him and I always wish Cardinal players nothing but success.
I just hope Mo isn’t counting on the 2021 version of Matz as he constructs what our rotation is going to look like next year. We need a bit more certainty than that. Relying on hope is what led to back to back years of adding pitching at the deadline.
Matz started 9 games for the Cardinals in 2022. In 6 of those starts, his ERA was 4.00 or under. He had 3 clunkers and the Cardinals were 1-2 in those 3 games.
I would have no problem upgrading from Matz but he is certainly not the worst starter. I would rate Hudson’s year as the worst.
The big problem with the starting staff is how can we rely on the personnel to come up with a top quality starting rotation. There are too many questionable health players and low ceiling players. A starting staff of #2-#3-#4 starters will not fair well in the post season.
BW, correct me if I am wrong but VerHagen hás less than 5 years service time só he can be sent tô the minors. Yes, he is out of options só he would have tô clear waivers. Would anyone pick up that contract? Would the Cards not be thrilled if they did?
CC Your last point just made Drew far more valuable. I haven’t given up on him, and I would be ok with him in that up and down role-sharing.
If he is the 10th guy in the pen, our depth is pretty good. Two guys would have to fail or get hurt before we ever would even see him.Matz started 9 games for the Cardinals in 2022. In 6 of those starts, his ERA was 4.00 or under. He had 3 clunkers and the Cardinals were 1-2 in those 3 games.
I would have no problem upgrading from Matz but he is certainly not the worst starter. I would rate Hudson’s year as the worst.
In 2022 Matz gave us 48 IP, negative .4 WAR, and earned $8M.
Hudson gave us 139.2 IP, .1 WAR, and earned $1M.Neither was great but at least Hudson was able to eat some innings.
Hudson may have thrown more innings but 11 of his 26 starts were clunkers. Surprisingly, the Cardinals were 4-7 in those 11 starts. Also, he had another 2 starts in which he didn’t even make it out of the 5th inning. So in 12 of his 26 starts he did not get through 5 IP.
In doing the research for this post, I saw some information that shed a little light on our starters. Here are the average runs scored by the Cardinals in these pitchers’ starts. I included how many times the team scored 2 or less runs or that they scored 8 or more runs.
Wainwright – 5.20 (9-2 or less, 6-8+)
Hudson – 5.16 (5-2 or less, 5-8+)
Quintana – 4.92 (3-2 or less, 2-8+)
Liberatore – 4.86 (0-2 or less, 1-8+)
Mikolas – 4.79 (13-2 or less, 6-8+)
Matz – 4.56 (3-2 or less, 1-8+)
Montgomery – 4.45 (4-2 or less, 2-8+)
Flaherty – 4.44 (2-2 or less, 0-8+)
Pallante – 3.68 (3-2 or less, 0-8+)There are 1458 innings that a team has to navigate annually, not counting extra innings. Pitchers that provide innings have value. Pitchers that are on the IL do not provide value. The clunker ratio doesn’t have as much meaning if we are only talking about a handful of starts.
gscottar…Simply because it doesn’t receive a lot of fanfare most people are unaware that Jake Westbrook is a charter member of the innings eater HOF located in Mediocre, GA.
gscottar, does only 2022 count when determining how much value there is in providing innings?
Hudson missed part of 2020 and almost all of 2021. Matz threw over 150 innings in 2018, 2019 and 2021. In 2020, he threw 30.2 innings and Hudson threw 39.0 innings. Basically, Matz was valuable for IP in 3 of the last 5 years. 2020 is a bad year to try to determine how reliable he would have been over a full season.
gscottar, does only 2022 count when determining how much value there is in providing innings?
No, but based on your previous comment of “I would rate Hudson’s year as the worst” I assumed you were referring to 2022. If we are being asked who will throw the most innings in 2023 between the two I will answer Hudson every time.
I was just pointing out saying a certain pitcher’s 6 out of 9 starts not being a clunker seems to ignore the fact that only having 9 starts in a season is a problem in itself.
gscottar…A clunker, eh? I think I saw one of those last night as McClullers Jr. was serving up 5 taters in 4.1 IP. Dusty left him in there…Why? Dusty said, “I didn’t have anyone loose”…Haha! Old Dusty’s a genuine corker…
It is telling that we need to consider which potential rotation candidate is less bad.
Hudson is 28 and has had one good season, 2019, when he was pretty dominating. Matz had four seasons of answering the bell every time his turn came up, until 2022 when he was injured. He was never a dominant type, but I think we hired him to take a regular turn. Given that backstory, it seems Matz is more likely to to fill a rotation slot next year than Hudson. But there a chance Hudson can reprise his 2019 season and I assume he will get the chance in ST. His arm may not be able to take a starters load any more though, same as Flaherty.
We have trended to the point where we now have an entire rotation of pitch to contact starters.
Flaherty, Wainwright, Mikolas and Hudson all had a 2022 K% below league avg.
Montgomery was slightly better (K%) than league avg as a Cardinal, then Hicks, and then Matz lead the rotation in K%.
jj, I believe that Mo mentioned the need for “swing and miss stuff” in his year end presser. So I would guess that the brass has taken notice of the trend and expect that we’ll see the signings going to the side of punchouts the next couple of years.
To me, it says more when a starter has 26 starts and 40% are bad.
Like I said, neither do not appear to be a great option but I do know that you have better chance of getting a hitter out when you are on the mound than you do sitting on the bench with your arm in a sling.
We have trended to the point where we now have an entire rotation of pitch to contact starters.
Yep, what we have is group of number 3 and 4 starters. Basically slightly above average innings eaters. That can work during the course of a long season as long as you have a good defense, good bullpen, and above average offense but it helps to have an ace in the playoffs.
2022 figures:
Matz .300 OBP against
League Average .313 OBP
Hudson .356 OBP againstSometimes it better to have a guy sitting on the bench in a sling than continuing to throw someone who is allowing too many base runners.
Matz has talent. He was a second round draft pick. He was a member of the Mets “Four Horsemen” with DeGrom, Harvey, and Syndergaard. Unfortunately he has never pitched more than 160 innings in one season, with his average being 118 innings per year. His injury history is what it is:
2010 Tommy John Surgery
2015 Muscle Tear
2015 Shoulder Spasms
2016 Elbow Bone Spur
2016 Shoulder Impingement
2017 Elbow Inflammation
2017 Elbow Lunar Nerve Irritation
2018 Elbow Flexor Strain
2020 Shoulder Discomfort
2021 Covid 19
2022 Shoulder Impingement
2022 Knee InjuryHe had a good year with Toronto in 2021 and was able to cash that in on a four year deal with the Cardinals. So far the ROI has been dismal but shouldn’t be shocking. Perhaps the next three years will be better. We can only hope so.
As for Hudson, his peripheral numbers have never been great, even during his 16 win season of 2019. 2022 was obviously not good. Was it related to coming back from TJ surgery? I don’t know, time will tell but at least he hasn’t been a big hit on our payroll budget nor will he be in the future most likely.
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