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On the Reyes discussion, I think the fairist way to evaluate his value is by answering this question: If he were a FA, would you want StL to sign him for 2.85mil this winter?
Go Chiefs!
It’s Raider Hater week!jj-cf-stl
On the Reyes discussion, I think the fairist way to evaluate his value is by answering this question: If he were a FA, would you want StL to sign him for 2.85mil this winter?
I think you would, without a doubt, as gscott said, assuming he is healthy in spring training. Much like Helsley, he can be unhittable when healthy.
I like the idea Goold put forth, with the Cardinals signing him and getting a option for one FA year. That way we get some value and he gets some security.
I like the idea Goold put forth, with the Cardinals signing him and getting a option for one FA year. That way we get some value and he gets some security.
This makes the most sense, I think. There are plenty of guys who don’t take off til later due to injury or whatever…I believe we would regret letting him go when we had him under control.
I like the idea Goold put forth, with the Cardinals signing him and getting a option for one FA year. That way we get some value and he gets some security.
It makes sense if he is healthy. Since 2016 he has pitched 145 innings at the major league level. That is remarkably low.
Does Cabrera have an option remaining?
I’m counting 6 near-guaranteed bullpen pitchers – Helsley, Gallegos, Hicks, Woodford, Pallante, Thompson
Then you have VerHagen, Stratton, and Reyes, who are all more likely to make the roster (if healthy) over Cabrera.
Finally, we have 5 starters penciled in. Then with possible FAs, Wainwright, Quintana, other pushing any of the 5 (Hudson, Matz) to the bullpen.
Cards667 said:
“Could see Reyes non-tender, maybe Stratton too, but I’d keep him. Hudson and Cabrera probably traded.”
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This seems like a very solid blueprint, imo.If the FO non-tendered Reyes/ Stratton, they immediately reclaim the 6.35mil it would cost to tender them. Neither filled a valuable role for the 2022 roster.
Hudson (2.7mil arb2) with two seasons of control, would have back of the rotation innings eater trade value.
Cabrera (1.2mil arb1) with three seasons of control, has a late innings resume’, and time to rebound from his overusage before free agency.Those four pitchers account for 10.25mil in possible 2023 arb salaries. A SP4 in Hudson, and a 7th inning lefty have legit trade value in a package.
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If Hudson/Cabrera were traded toward a position player, the remaining pitching staff would be:SP: Mikolas, Monty, Wainwright, Matz
RP: Helsley, Gallegos, Thompson, Hicks
Mid: Flaherty, Pallante, WoodfordThis leaves two open roster spots for an ACE and a RP.
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I’m done with the Hicks as a SP role and I hope the FO is. Flaherty I’m being cautious with, starting him in the pen, and the first SP to fill for an injury in the rotation.There is also the option of flipping Matz and Flaherty, but I would like a healthy Flaherty available at seasons end, so start in the pen. Same as I said with Hudson last offseason. Didn’t happen, and Hudson was toast by the postseason.
Expecting VerHagen to be cut, but when is anyones guess.
Hicks is your highest ceiling starter; I doubt he is done there. We stole three years of development, and he has faced injuries. His issue is command not talent.
Hicks was a complete flop as a starter. He belongs in the pen.
I wish they would put Matz in the pen also but they probably won’t because of the financial commitment.
Guys that we might be dangling because we’re done with their injury history probably don’t have a lot of value even though there is some talent.
I think most or all teams already have a guy like Cabrera. Maybe we could swap him for one of them with the idea the change or orgs might do some good. Maybe we get lucky and get a Mujica season out of somebody else’s struggling 7th inning guy.
BR has the 2022 pitching staff as 22nd in mlb. Fangraphs has us at 17th. Can we just say we were 20th? That was the worst ranking of all postseasons teams.
We’ve got to pitch better. Hoping that Reyes, Hudson, Cabrera, Hicks, Flaherty, Matz are all better is just hope. Hope is not a good strategy.
We need additions coming off a good to great season, instead of hoping players finally reach or reclaim their potential.
One a one year contract, we need Q back, more than Flaherty back. Most recent, most relevant. Results matter.
Starters are pretty well set, with Mikolas, Montgomery,
Matz, Flaherty, and Waino. It would be great if they could add Quintana. I wonder how much having Maddux step down will influence Quintana wanting to come back.The bullpen is broken down into categories.
1.) Signed for 2023 – Gallegos and VerHagen
2.) Under control via arbitration – Helsley, Hudson, Hicks, Reyes, Stratton, Cabrera
3.) Under control via pre-arbitration – Liberatore, Pallante, Naughton, Romero, Thompson, Woodford, Pacheo, WhitleyThe bullpen is actually pretty well set with –
Helsley, Hicks, Gallegos, Pallante, Romero, Cabrera, Hudson, Woodford, Liberatore, Thompson, VerHagen, Stratton, Naughton, Thomas, Pacheco, etc. Only 7 or 8 of those 13 will make it.
Liberatore, Thompson, Woodford and even Hudson may be at Memphis staying stretched out.
Pacheco got in about 30 IP in AAA so far. I guess that can be enough to get your ticket punched now days. The 2020 off season came at a bad time for him, spitting his A level time in half.
I don’t expect much out of Romero. He ran into trouble once he got to AA and it didn’t get any better. Got a free ticket to the bigs like some other unlikely characters during the 2020 season when there wasn’t any MiLB and some regulars opted out.. IMO, he never pitched his way out of AA. That sort of thing catches up to you. I’m sure Philly was thrilled to get a legit big leaguer for him.
Romero’s saga reminds me a lot of Liberatore. 2020 probably would have been A+, and if it went well, AA. But 2020 didn’t happen, and he came on board with us and magically morphed into a AAA pitcher. He looked OK, but nothing magical at all. IMO he didn’t pitch his way out of AAA and it caught up with him. He’s young, but his trajectory has leveled off, just good enough to be another Oviedo, plus he’s probably got a bad back from carrying around all the hype.
If Mo is counting on these type of guys for the 2023 staff he’s making a mistake. The same one he made last winter.
I think everybody else on cranny’s list is a health problem, a performance problem or a mop up guy.
One a one year contract, we need Q back, more than Flaherty back. Most recent, most relevant. Results matter.
I like Quintana, but 2022 reads far more like a one year outlier than a trend going forward. ERA by year since 2016: 3.20, 4.15, 4.03, 4.68, 4.50, 6.43, 2.93.
I’m not saying that he’s a 6+ ERA pitcher next year, but he’s more likely to be a 4.50+ guy than <3.50. We got his late career year…call it a stroke of genius by Mo (or really a stroke of luck, but whatever) and cash out while you’re ahead. We have enough #3/4 guys.
Position players 3rd, pitchers 19th. Which do we upgrade?
Lets say you have two sedans out in the driveway, same make and model, because you like those vehicles.
One has 30,000 miles, and the other has 190,000. You have the $ to upgrade one of them, but which one?
Practicality says trade in the 190,000 mile vehicle, but you have so much sentimentality built up with that one. So many memories.
Maybe it will start running better because it used to run great, and lets be honest, you’ve become attached to its familiarity.
Sometimes it’s hard to move on even though you know it’s the right thing to do.
jj…I’m all for upgrading the staff. I think we need a better guy than Quintana, that’s all. I’d target Bieber or maybe one of the Marlins in a trade. In free agency, Rodon sounds great.
I also think the offense needs some lefty thump to balance the lineup. I’m not sure who could be had in a trade or if Burleson or Gorman might not be that guy in 2023. But I like Conforto, maybe Pederson, or Bellinger on a bounce back. For catcher, I like a defensive guy…Vazquez or maybe Narvaez, unless the Jays give up Jansen fairly cheap.
Either way, I’m all about the ceiling. The floor feels like playoffs next year…85-88 wins. Add to that with a TOR starter and some LH pop and you get something like 2021 O’Neill or 2019 Flaherty and you’re staring at 95+ wins and a shot at a pennant. That’s what I’m hoping while we hang onto Goldy and Arenado’s primes.
Well said 25.
I’m at a point where I could move on from Flaherty and Hudson. I’d like two starters, an ace and Q. This bumps Matz to the pen waiting for start opportunities. I’m not down on Matz, he was just really bad when he did throw a clunker.
Narvaez had a good season vs us. I wonder if he caught the FO eye.
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