April 14, 2021 at 11:01 am #158115
Rose and Aaron were in a different class like Musial. You can’t use them as comparisons. Ozzie and McGee were different types of hitters. Berkman had 1 great year and 1 good year after he turned 33. Beltran was up and down at that point. Can you tell which seasons will be Goldschmidt’s good to great seasons and which ones won’t?April 14, 2021 at 12:12 pm #158116
They were all active in the PED era? Lol.
The only point I’m making is that there’s a possibility that Goldy could be a very productive player for years to come. That’s all.April 14, 2021 at 12:25 pm #158117
You’re right…there’s a chance. It’d be against the odds, for sure. We can all hope that he stays great and leads the offense til his contract is up.April 14, 2021 at 1:03 pm #158125
Against the odd re Goldy, but for the odds re Bader, O’Neill, Thomas, and Williams?April 14, 2021 at 3:38 pm #158145bicyclemikeModeratorPaid - Annual
All of those players were active in the PED era
Actually only Edmonds, Rolen, Beltran and Berkman. And all were early in their careers. By late in their careers none of those guys were in the PED era. Ozzie and McGee may have ended just as it was ramping up, but neither were of the body type to get into ‘roids, especially at that point in their careers.April 14, 2021 at 4:41 pm #158146
bc, Goldschmidt has reached the age of normal decline. The other ones haven’t even reached the age of typical peak.April 14, 2021 at 5:59 pm #158150
If there is a peak. Which may of may not be so.April 14, 2021 at 8:57 pm #158158
We also don’t know if Goldy is in decline. Both points won’t be known until the future is over.April 14, 2021 at 11:54 pm #158162
Maybe into a slight decline several years from now. His first year with the Cards he was getting used to a new town, new teammates, a new home stadium, new manager, new front office, new owners, etc. Still hit 34 homers and drove in 97.
Then 2020 was shortened and bizarre.
Let’s see how he does this season.April 15, 2021 at 6:41 am #158165
Maybe Goldy will hold off the decline for a few years, and that will be great. The numbers say that is very, very unlikely to be the case. We should expect him to be about 10% less effective per successive year until the end of his contract. So last year’s 140 wRC+ becomes upper 120s this year, upper 110s next year, 110ish the following year and 100ish the last year of his deal. And that would be a graceful decline. There’s a shot that 2019 was his high water full season mark in a Cardinal uniform (114 wRC+). That’s just the reality of the situation.
Oh, and PEDs of some sort or another were most definitely in the game prior to the late 90s, probably as early as the 1940s. Combine that with the watered down talent pool of the “old days” thanks to no or less integration, no overseas development and fewer teams and that’s how you have guys performing decently into their late 30s up until 2010 and then suddenly, nothing.April 15, 2021 at 11:08 am #158169
I think you have it a bit wrong, 25. The dilution is today with so many more teams. A lot of these guys would never have seen a major league roster back in the 50s and 60s.April 15, 2021 at 11:29 am #158170
As my dad would say, there’s your problem.
Name all the African American and Latin, Asian, etc stars that wouldn’t be in the game if things were as they were in the 1950s when the league was barely populated with anyone not white. You have made this same argument several times and it’s no more right today than it was then. The sport is much stronger for the changes that have happened since the days of it being a Northeast/Midwest and white-only sport.April 15, 2021 at 11:45 am #158171
How old are you, 25? I’ve been watching major league baseball for 7 decades. And I can guarantee you that the dilution is today. And don’t talk to me about African Americans. I’ve watched some of the great ones play – Ozzie, Lou, Curt Flood, Bill White, Bob Gibson, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Ferguson Jenkins, etc. And I’ve seen great Latino players like Tony Perez, Roberto Clemente, Pedro Martinez, Juan Marichal, Fernando Valenzuela, Orlando Cedpeda, Roberto Alomar, Ivan Rodriguez, etc. play too.
Let’s stop this discussion. There’s too big of a generational and fan experience differential.April 15, 2021 at 1:23 pm #158174
US population in 1950: 150 million
US population in 2020: 330 million
That’s not even counting all the Latin American countries, the Asian markets and the full effect of integration.
You don’t really believe that the talent pool is diluted today, do you bc? Surely you must be playing devil’s advocate…April 15, 2021 at 2:02 pm #158177so_cal_cards_fanParticipantFree
The sport is much stronger for the changes that have happened since the days of it being a Northeast/Midwest and white-only sport.
Heartily agree, Card25. That’s why I find the ongoing discussions about HOF inclusions from the Negro Leagues so interesting. So glad these players that were denied their proper places in society are being recognized.
And on the issue of dilution, during to 50’s, MLB mostly drew players from North America, but has a history of foreign/born players from about 26 counties prior to 1950. But realistically, MLB was drawing from about a 200-300m population.
Since the 50s, if you count the current population of countries that have either hosted or won a Baseball World Cup, their population is about 850m. And of course the number of Major League teams has about doubled.
On the other hand, if you throw minor leagues into the evaluation, baseball has shrunk in the US, and I’m saddened by the losses to baseball at its roots. Post WWII we had 400+ teams in 50+ leagues.April 15, 2021 at 2:11 pm #158178
Yes, the talent pool that reaches the major leagues now is somewhat diluted. Roughly twice as many teams today through expansion. You had to be a very good all around player to make the majors in the 50s/60s/70s. I talked to some former Cardinals about this.
As I said, 25, we are way too far apart in age and viewing experience to have a decent conversation about this. Reference your comments about Africa American and Latino players.
Sometimes it’s fine to just agree to disagree. Let’s move on.April 15, 2021 at 2:31 pm #158179
Thank you for ceding the point om Goldy, bc. He’s definitely one to worry about going forward. Players just don’t age as well as they did in the days of steroids, greenies and other now banned drugs.April 15, 2021 at 2:56 pm #158180
I didn’t cede anything on Goldschmidt. I said it’s on an individual basis when a player declines.
The board is not an ongoing debate, 25. It’s not calling out another poster. It’s simply a discussion among Cardinal fans.April 15, 2021 at 6:24 pm #158191bicyclemikeModeratorPaid - Annual
Just to throw another angle at the talent pool discussion, a diluting factor in today’s environment as compared to years ago is that other professional sports have achieved and even surpassed the level of baseball in terms of player compensation and popularity. Someone like a Russell Wilson might have very well chosen baseball rather than football some 50-60 years ago.
Course you have Reggie Jackson, who had that same choice when he started his career in the ’60s. He chose baseball because he felt he could be in his late 30s and still making good money in baseball, whereas in football that would not likely be the case.
But no matter what era you look at, to play sports at the highest level takes an extremely rare set of skills, not to mention a restricted age bracket, that most of us just do not possess. And even many that do posses the basics have other factors that keep them from achieving the dream.April 15, 2021 at 7:42 pm #158198jj-cf-stlParticipantPaid - Annual
You are the voice of reason 25, once again.April 15, 2021 at 11:01 pm #158206
Very nice post, bicyclemike.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.