2018 Draft

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  • #45560
    CariocaCardinal
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    Litrell may not have been great overall last year but as a potential LOOGY he was awesome. .156 baa and gave up an OPS of only .439 to lefties

    #46444
    Cardinals27
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    The Cardinals pick 19, 43, 59,76, and 95 give or take a spot or with future free agent signing compensations. That should be enough to help restock their lower levels. Best player available is most likely, but maybe draft some power or left handed pitches prospects, including leaning to more polished players, i.e. college players.

    #46470
    Cardinals2016
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    I think everyone is expecting the Cardinals to go heavy after pitching the first few rounds.

    Brett Kinneman (OF) out of NC State (12 HR already) and Luke Heyer, 3B, out of Kentucky (11 HR) are putting up monster seasons.

    Heyer (.386/.475/.867) would be interesting in the early rounds (3-4) because the Cardinals don’t have a lot of 3B prospect depth and he is a senior sign, meaning he will sign for well below slot value, freeing up money to go after some HS players later on.

    Compare Heyer’s slash line to Tristan Pompey, a projected first rounder on the same team – .387/.479/.677

    #46471
    CariocaCardinal
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    I am not expecting them to go pitching the first few rounds. I am exoecting them to take the best signable player available.

    #46477
    14NyquisT
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    Let’s just say the Cards are DUE to make a solid 1st-round pick. They usually do fairly well after that. They’ll go after a couple of HSers as projects. Always a crap shoot.

    Cards27 has the right idea….. restock the lower level ranks as they are basically thread bare and need some help desperately. I can’t wait to see what we get.

    #46479
    Brian Walton
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    Yes, this draft will be very important. As the top tier prospects graduate, the overall system ranking will fall into the bottom 10 next year otherwise. It may, anyway. So go the prospect cycles.

    #46488
    Cardinals2016
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    “best player available” is such a misnomer when it comes to the baseball draft.

    First, it is a total crapshoot when only two-thirds of first rounders ever make it to the major leagues and the percentages only go down thereafter…

    Second, the way the draft pool money is figured, every team engages in sub-optimal drafting in the first 10 rounds to manage their bonus pool money. This is the reason “best player available” is a misnomer in the MLB draft.

    Third, the Cardinals are better at drafting pitchers than they are hitters. Look at their recent experience of drafting hitters in the first two rounds versus pitchers. Make your top draft picks count.

    Fourth, They also didn’t really take any high upside pitchers last year, except for maybe Wilberto Rivera.

    The third and fourth reasons are the reasons I expect them to go after pitchers with their first two picks. Unless Nolan Gorman somehow falls to them.

    #46497
    mudville
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    The last few years their focus has been on pitching. I expect the same this year unless the best pitchers are already gone and there is a very highly regarded position player still on the board. I wish they could find a true defensive shortstop that can hit. They’ve tried several times during the last twenty years and have always failed.

    #46498
    Cardinals2016
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    Under Mozeliak, the Cardinals first rounders for position players were:
    2007 – Pete Kozma
    2008 – Brett Wallace
    2010 – Zack Cox
    2011 – Kolten Wong
    2012 – James Ramsey
    2015 – Nick Plummer
    2016 – Delvin Perez, Dylan Carlson

    Now, look at the pitchers the Cardinals have drafted in the first round in the same time frame:
    2009 – Shelby Miller
    2010 – Tyrell Jenkins, Seth Blair
    2012 – Michael Wacha
    2013 – Marco Gonzales, Rob Kaminsky
    2014 – Luke Weaver
    2016 – Dakota Hudson

    From this, I think the Cardinals should stick to drafting pitchers in the first round.

    #46499
    Brian Walton
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    One size does not fit all. Scouts and scouting directors change over time. Other teams find hitters, so I don’t think the Cards should just give up or make their primary strategy a hope to find more Alberts in the later rounds. Balance is always needed, IMO.

    #46513
    Cardinals27
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    I hope they have find some left handed pitching gems in this draft. Talk about thread bare.

    Also, a few more of the 2017 draftees might get our attention this spring. I almost think that 2017 may end up being known for relievers, which we can use in the lower levels, and Mendoza. I hope I am wrong, but the offensive players chosen, other than perhaps Fuller and couple others, seem destined, at best for 4th or 5th outfielders, and utility infielders. Hopefully some will show marked improvement over their draft year.

    #46624
    Brian Walton
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    #46633
    BlackHillsCard
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    Cardinals have an allotment of $9,096,600. That’s up significantly from last year’s allotment of $2,176,000.

    https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/royals-tigers-have-largest-bonus-draft-allotments/

    #46747
    PadsFS
    Participant

    Did we actually receive a pick for losing Lance Lynn and, if so, where at in the draft?

    Now that we don’t have a 2nd round pick, #59, for signing Holland, we are left with 19, 29, 39, and 94 that I know of in the top 100.

    #46749
    Brian Walton
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    Lynn’s pick is #76. The others were 19, 43, 59 (now forfeited) and 95. They are all listed at the bottom of the BA article BHC linked to just above.

    #46767
    PadsFS
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    Sweet thanks.

    #48865
    Cardinals2016
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    There has not been much discussion of who the Cardinals should draft this year, so I’ll throw out some names. I like to focus on players that are sneaking up the draft boards (gaining helium) as opposed to players who were pre-season considered top draft choices.

    The player with the most helium so far this year is probably Jonathan India, 3B, University of Florida. In sprite of him being a Gator, I’d actually like to see the Cardinals draft him. Why? His .427 Batting Average is currently 4th in the nation. His .551 OBP his second in the nation. His .864 slugging percentage is 3rd in the nation. His 12 home runs was tied for 7th in the nation coming into the weekend. He plays 3B, which is a position in which the Cardinals do not have a lot of depth in the minor leagues. He also plays in the toughest baseball conference in America.

    So, why isn’t India considered a Top 10 prospect? Coming into the year, he had a late second/early third round grade on him. In part, because he seemingly took a step backwards at the plate last year. That was, in at least part, due to injury. Here are his season slash lines:

    2016: .303/.367/.440 with 16 doubles, 2 triples, 4HR; 22 walks/43 strikeouts; 13/18 stolen bases; 12 errors in 67 games

    2017: .274/.354/.429 with 15 doubles and 6 HR; 23 walks/42 strikeouts; 13/13 stolen bases; 7 errors in 59 games

    2018: .427/.551/.864 with 8 doubles, 2 triples and 12 HR; 27 walks/23 strikeouts; 8/9 stolen bases; 3 errors in 34 games

    The reason India wasn’t ranked higher coming into the season was his 2017 performance seemed to take a step back. But he was injured and missed several games. After returning from injury, he hit .330 the remainder of the season. It would appear his injury affected his early season numbers.

    Now, BA had him ranked as a late second/early third round draft pick coming into the season. Everywhere else I had seen had him ranked as a second or third rounder. BA recently indicated he has improved himself a full round so far, and if he maintains this pace, will find himself getting drafted in the middle of the first round come June. Assuming none of the Top 8 or so players in the draft mysteriously drop to the Cardinals at #19, India would be my preference for who the Cardinals draft at 19.

    As we know from this study here , College hitters are the safest picks in the draft. The Cardinals need impact hitters in their system and tend to prefer guys who walk over guys with power. India plays 3B, has learned to walk (which has improved his power game), and did I mention he was the 82nd ranked prospect coming out of HS – AS A SHORTSTOP!!! Yes, he played SS in HS, fills in at SS for the Gators, and likely could transition back to SS in the minors, if the Cardinals were so inclined (and they should be, if they wind up drafting Luke Heyer).

    Where should he be drafted? If the Cardinals want him, they are probably going to draft him at #19, because he will surely be gone by #43.

    #48866
    Cardinals2016
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    Another player I like who checks off some Cardinal needs is Brett Kinneman, RF, NC State.

    Prior to this year, Kinneman was considered a toolsy player that never quite lived up to his potential. Here are some stories about Kinneman USA Baseball and NCAA

    His slash lines are:
    2016: .296/.405/.526 with 13 doubles and 6 HR; 24 walks to 38 strikeouts; 2/2 stolen bases; 0 errors in 42 games

    2017: .282/.372/.502 with 14 doubles, 1 triple and 10 HR; 29 walks to 64 strikeouts; 4/4 in stolen bases; 4 errors in 60 games

    2018: .322/.402/.692 with 8 doubles, 3 triples and 13 HR; 19 walks to 31 strikeouts; 4/5 in stolen bases; 0 errors in 34 games.

    What Kinneman would provide to the Cardinals is a power-hitting left-handed bat. There may be some outfielder with better speed tools, but the Cardinals have a plethora of CF-types. Kinneman would give them a power hitting, left-handed corner outfielder.

    Where should he be drafted? The two years I have been tracking the draft, first rounders tend to have at least .340/.450/.550 slash lines. Kinneman’s OBP falls below that threshold, and his strikeout numbers are a bit alarming. But if he is available at #43, he might be the steal of the draft…

    #48868
    Cardinals2016
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    Keeping on the power-hitting college player types with a lot of helium, one of my favorite players of this year’s draft is Luke Heyer, 3B/OF for the University of Kentucky.

    Heyer will likely go no higher than the 4th round of this year’s draft, in spite of what many say is a cannon of an arm. Why? Because he is a college senior (and his sophomore season in the field), and college seniors tend not to go very high in the draft, in favor of younger players. There have been some studies that show older players do not progress to the majors at the same rates as younger players, though it should be noted the Cardinals have had some success with college seniors (Matt Carpenter, Paul DeJong).

    Why was Luke Heyer not drafted last year? He started his collegiate career at a JUCO, where he mashed in his sophomore season. He transferred to Kentucky last year, where he split time at 3B and the outfield. His numbers took a step back last year as he adjusted to the toughest conference in college baseball, but he is absolutely on fire this year.

    Here are his slash lines:

    2015 (College of Central Florida): .272/.335/.432 with 8 doubles, 2 triples and 5 HR. He had 15 walks to 28 strikeouts; was 3/6 in the stolen base department; had 9 errors in 47 games. He also pitched on the mound and had a 4.15 ERA with a 7.27 K/9 ratio.

    2016 (College of Central Florida): .358/.479/.653 with 17 doubles, 2 triples and 12 HR; 32 walks to 41 strikeouts; 7/12 stolen bases; a crazy 20 errors in 51 games. He also pitched in two appearances and had a 0.0 ERA.

    2017 (UK): .262/.342/.492 with 6 doubles and 3 HR; 5 walks to 19 strikeouts; 1 out of 2 stolen bases; 0 errors in 37 games, only half of which he started

    2018 (UK): .358/.447/.767 with 10 doubles and 13 HR; 16 walks to 29 HR; 7/9 stolen bases; 4 errors in 32 games, of which he has started 31.

    When Tristan Pompey was injured earlier in the year, it was Luke Heyer who took his place in the outfield. For comparison’s sake, here is Pompey’s slash line on the year:

    2018: .358/.455/.632 with 11 doubles and 5 HR; 15 walks to 25 HR; 4/6 stolen bases and 0 errors in 27 games, of which he started 23.

    Pompey is considered a possible first round draft pick.

    Where should he be drafted? He probably won’t go higher than the 4th round, as a college senior. I don’t see him lasting beyond the 6th round. A lot of it will depend on how well his glove is playing at 3B. His hit tools and arm are there, plus he has the added versatility of playing 3B and corner outfield (and I guess, mop-up pitcher if need be). He will be getting a lot of exposure this year, as UK is a heavily scouted team this year, having about 8 players who can wind up being drafted in the early rounds.

    #48870
    Cardinals2016
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    A pitcher I couldn’t figure out why the Cardinals did not draft last year was Blaine Knight, RHP out of Arkansas. Knight was a draft-eligible sophomore last year. Evidently, his college coach came out a week before the draft and said he felt Knight might return for his junior season, and that may have been enough to scare teams off from drafting him (he was finally taken in the 29th round, despite a 2nd-3rd round grade). Regardless, he seemed like one of those guys who might’ve been worth taking a flyer on at some point (like, say, the 3rd round in a year the Cardinals did not really draft any high-end pitchers). Arkansas has a lot of Cardinals fans, perhaps that could’ve swayed him to sign if taken high enough.

    Anyway, here are his stats:

    2016: 2.98 ERA; 48.1 innings pitched: 46:14 K:BB; .294 BAA

    2017: 3.28 ERA; 90.2 innings pitched; 96:20 K:BB; .222 BAA

    2018: 1.95 ERA; 50.2 innings pitched; 52:11 K:BB; .238 BAA

    This year, he has beaten Casey Mize (now likely the first player taken in the draft), Sean Hjelle, Brady Singer and Ryan Rollison – all considered potential first rounders in the draft.

    Knight sits 90-94 with his fastball, but can crank it up to 97. His slider and changeup are both considered plus pitches (slider moreso). He also has an average curve.

    The knock on him is he has a slight frame, as he is 6’3”, 170 pounds (remind anyone of Luke Weaver?).

    Where should he be drafted? He might be a candidate at #19 depending on how the draft shakes out, and definitely should be considered at 43 if still on the board.

    #48873
    858booyah
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    What about the kid from Illinois???? Bren something…

    He’s been on fire all year long I’ve heard.

    #48874
    Cardinals2016
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    Yes, Bren Spillane is posting a .457/.540/1.038 slash line with 15 doubles, 2 triples and 14 HR. He has 17 walks to 37 strikeouts and 3 errors in 29 games.

    Coming into the weekend, he was second in batting average, fifth in OBP, 1st in slugging % and third in HR.

    The problem that I see, from a Cardinals interest perspective, is they appear to have adopted a model of drafting catchers who can play first (Chris Chinea, Jeremy Martinez) as their future 1B’s. Which makes sense if you need an emergency catcher, but could cause them to pass on somebody like Spillane.

    Last year, he probably would have gone in the first round. This year, there is a lot of depth in the first 2-3 rounds of positions with greater defensive value than 1B. If you look at the free agent 1B market over the past two years, you see that as a position that is being devalued. Thus, despite the gaudy numbers, I don’t expect Spillane to go in the first two rounds this year. Well, maybe the back half of round 2.

    #48877
    Cardinals2016
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    I don’t want to beat a dead horse to death – in this case the third base position. But this happens to be a year I think the Cardinals can vastly improve their minor league 3B depth. I normally don’t talk about HS players at all, because there is so little information about those that aren’t projected to go in the first round.

    But here is something I found fascinating: “I swear I had this comp before Perfect Game mentioned it (good call by them, by the way), but Northcut’s profile reminds me a whole heck of a lot of a young Nolan Arenado.”

    Now, I started reading the Baseball Draft Report two years ago, and afterwards I did a comparison between his rankings and BA’s rankings and compared to actual draft position. He was, overall, much closer. Actually nailing some in rounds 3-6. Last year, it was BA all the way, as he was distracted with the birth of his granddaughter, but if you want some insight into the draft, he is worth a read…

    Anyway, back to Northcut, after reading that comp, I researched him a little more, and found this: Youtube interview and this .

    “Northcutt was the unanimous top performer at the plate, repeatedly showed power potential, driving ball after ball with authority and recording a record high 105 mph exit velocity with a wooden bat.”

    If the Cardinals skip on India at #19, and he isn’t available at 43, Northcut seems like somebody who could be in play, even though he is a Vanderbilt commit (from the interview, it seems like he is more interested in playing pro ball than Vanderbilt).

    #48879
    858booyah
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    Well I guess we’ll see what Spillane and Illinois are about. Just checked the schedule and Illinois runs the gauntlet the last half of the B1G season.

    #49129
    Cardinals2016
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    Where would you take a Redshirt Junior who throws 101 MPH and already has his degree? How LSU Prepared

    What if this player had Tommy John surgery in HS, and sat out the 2016 season due to an injury in his elbow? See injury history

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