TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #6 – Alec BurlesonAt no. 6 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2023 top prospect countdown is the first member of the rich draft class of 2020 to reach St. Louis. Even after a strong 2022 at Memphis, what is Alec Burleson’s future in a crowded Cardinals outfield?
TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #7 – Iván HerreraThe Cardinal Nation’s 2023 top prospect countdown reaches no. 7 with a catcher who made a brief MLB debut in 2022 but is now blocked by Willson Contreras. Still just 22 years of age, what is next for Iván Herrera?
photo: Masyn Winn, Tink Hence and Jordan Walker (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)
As St. Louis Cardinals players at all levels worked to improve their skills, more top prospects moved onto the national rankings and others emerged as players to watch in the improving minor league system.
To recognize those players with perhaps the brightest futures, The Cardinal Nation has developed our annual Cardinals Top 50 Prospect List for 2023. Our 18th annual rankings will roll out in the days and weeks ahead.
An expanded role
As we unveil our 2023 Cardinals Top 50 Prospect List, a familiar TCN contributor will provide our player evaluations.
Blake Newberry has written for The Cardinal Nation since 2019 and has covered prospects via the draft, as rookies, in winter ball and now, is writing scouting reports on the best Cardinals prospects.
Blake’s interest and expertise in scouting prospects is important in keeping our Cardinals projections grounded. His tools-driven evaluations join Brian Walton’s assessments for this project.
The rankings
The process to set TCN’s new Top 50 for 2023 is a continuation of Walton’s members-only in-season monthly Cardinals prospect rankings, with adjustments based on fall and winter ball play as well as input from scouts and player development professionals.
Separately developed, Newberry’s top 65 list was averaged with Walton’s working top 65 to develop the site’s new Top 50.
(Players are eligible until they reach the MLB rookie levels of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched.)
In our daily countdown of the Top 50, starting on Monday, November 21, Blake delivers a scouting report on each prospect, highlighting the five major tools for position players and grades for pitches. These grades are on the standard 20-80 scouting scale, noted with the risk associated with the player eventually achieving his Future Value (FV).
Walton provides background on each prospect, his progress in the organization, where he fits against others and his outlook for the coming season and beyond.
Following the countdown will be our annual series of “best-of”, “just-missed” and in-depth analysis articles of the Top 50 collectively. This series will likely continue beyond Winter Warm-Up, to be held in the second half of January.
As always, selected prospect reports will be made available to everyone, but for full access to all 50 write-ups and the following articles, one must be a member of The Cardinal Nation. 
Join today!
To follow the countdown, you can either read each new story when posted on our home page every morning or click on the individual players’ names, which will be listed below as they are unveiled. You can also return to this page daily to check the current status of our Top 50 countdown.
Readers can join in the dialogue at The Cardinal Nation’s free message board, where there will be discussion surrounding that day’s entry onto the top prospect list.
To check out the corresponding rankings from each of the past 17 winters, click here, or you can always access them via the permanent link in the left column located underneath the site logo called “PROSPECT RANKINGS”.
The Cardinal Nation Top 50 Prospects – 2023
There’s more!
At the conclusion of the countdown, a multi-part series follows, as we drill down into the details behind the Top 50. Most of these articles will be exclusively for TCN members.
We will analyze year-to-year changes and the top additions, highlight players who did not make the combined Top 50 and unveil our All-Prospect Team – the highest-ranked players at each position.
Next will be a view behind the numbers, a look back at our best and worst picks from the previous year, the top prospect list cut by level of play, those on the 2022 list who dropped off for 2023 and a potential-only based-list of the new Top 50.
Top 50 Analysis Series
2023 Top St. Louis Cardinals Prospects – The Final Tally
2023 Top St. Louis Cardinals Prospects – Movers and Shakers
2023 Top St. Louis Cardinals Prospects – The Newbies
2023 Top St. Louis Cardinals Prospects – The Departed
2023 Top St. Louis Cardinals Prospects – 2022 Picks and Pans
The Cardinal Nation 2023 Cardinals All-Prospect Team (free)
2023 Top St. Louis Cardinals Prospects – Behind the Numbers
2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects – Best of the Rest – Brian Walton
2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects – Best of the Rest – Blake Newberry
2023 Top St. Louis Cardinals Prospects by Level and MLB Debut
2023 St. Louis Cardinals Top 50 Prospects Ranked by Future Value and Risk
Scouting grading scale and risk
The following table aligns the level of each scouting grade for hitters and pitchers to the comparable future MLB role.
| Grade | Hitter role | Pitcher role |
| 80 | Top 5 hitter | 1-3 arm. Ace if multiple years |
| 70 | Top 10 hitter | 2 starter FIP sub 3.00 |
| 60 | All-Star | 3 starter 3.30 FIP (200 IP)/High closer |
| 55 | Above average regular/occasional All-Star | 3/4 starter 3.70 FIP (160 IP)/Mid closer |
| 50 | Average everyday player | 4 starter 4.00 FIP (or 190+ IP)/Low closer or high set up |
| 45 | Platoon player | 4/5 starter 4.20 FIP/Low set up |
| 40 | Reserve | Backend starter 5.00 FIP/Middle relief |
| 30 | AAAA player | AAAA player |
| 20 | Organizational player | Organizational player |
Behind these basic grades are more detailed scales which help translate player measurements by position types into grades. Examples include average and home run levels and home to first base times for hitters, pop rates for catchers and velocities, strikeout and walk rates for pitchers.
Risk is another measure included. It indicates the chances a player hits the Future Value scouting grade given.
Now available – 2023 Prospect Guide
The Cardinal Nation 2023 Prospect Guide is back for its sixth year. It includes a record 292 pages of in-depth commentary about the very best St. Louis Cardinals minor leaguers, including dozens of new scouting reports and much more.
Order your copy in PDF or spiral-bound printed book form. 50% off the former for paying members of The Cardinal Nation.
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© 2022 The Cardinal Nation, thecardinalnation.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #8 – Matthew LiberatoreAt no. 8 on The Cardinal Nation’s 2023 top prospect countdown is a left-handed pitcher who served as a spot starter with St. Louis but whose performance slid in his second season at Triple-A. What does Matthew Liberatore need to do to seize a starting berth?
TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #9 – Zack ThompsonRanked no. 9 on The Cardinal Nation’s 2023 top prospect countdown is a left-handed starter prospect who earned a growing relief role with St. Louis during the second half. At this point, does anyone know for sure what Zack Thompson’s future holds?
photo: Cooper Hjerpe (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)
Opening the top 10 of The Cardinal Nation’s prospect countdown for 2023 is the organization’s first rounder from 2022. Where will lefty Cooper Hjerpe open his career and how fast will he advance? FREE report!
Position: Pitcher
Age: 21 years old
Bats/Throws: L/L
Height/Weight – 6’3/200
Acquired: Selected in the first round, 22nd overall, in the 2022 First-Year Player Draft
Home: Capay, California
Opened 2022: did not pitch
Primary team in 2022: did not pitch
Finished 2022: did not pitch
Prior Top 50 ranking – not applicable
Click on the above photo to be taken to Hjerpe’s player page at The Cardinal Nation, with additional biography and history information.
Blake Newberry’s scouting report
Blake’s ranking – no. 10
(current grade/future grade)
| FB | SL | CH | Command | FV |
| 50/60 | 45/55 | 45/55 | 45/55 | 50 |
No professional stats in 2022
I love Hjerpe and I fear that my initial ranking of him is too low. He’s just so unique. The lefty is essentially a sidearm thrower and releases the ball from a super low arm slot. That usually portends a fastball with a lot of running and fading action but that’s not the case for Hjerpe. His fastball does get plenty of run, but it also has hard riding action too, which is impressive since it can be hard for a pitcher to put backspin on the ball while throwing from that angle.
It sits in the low 90s and touches 94-95 so it doesn’t have much more than average velocity at best, but its unique look makes it a clear plus pitch for me. His motion and delivery give him plenty of deception and it’s rare to find a fastball that can pair running action with a rising effect.
He has good command of the pitch as he can locate it up and down and east and west, but it gets the most whiffs at the top of the zone. Again, that’s rare for a fastball with such a low arm slot and the fact that it has both run and rise means that it profiles well in all parts of the zone. That’s why it’s a plus pitch for me. It’s really the foundation of his arsenal and his other pitches build off it.
His breaking ball is a sweeping slider (though some call it a curveball) and it’s a solid offering that tunnels well with his fastball. He can manipulate it too. Sometimes the pitch is harder with sharper sweep and less drop and sometimes it’s a little loopier with more vertical break. That could be why some call it a curveball and some call it a slider, but honestly, he could be throwing both.
I prefer the sharper offering because I think hard sweep pairs better with his arsenal as a whole, but he has plenty of feel for both movement profiles. The 21-year-old likes to attack his glove side with the pitch as he has a filthy back foot slider against righties and the pitch is very effective sweeping away from lefties. He can work the pitch to his arm side too.
Hey @Cardinals, wise choice.
@CooperHjerpe#GoBeavs pic.twitter.com/6SW9ej37bh
— Oregon State Baseball (@BeaverBaseball) July 18, 2022
He gets a lot of uncomfortable swings and can freeze hitters with this pitch as it comes with deception and a funky arm slot and just absolutely annihilates lefties. I would like to see him throw it a bit harder, but it was a wipeout offering in college and generated a whiff rate above 50%.
And then there’s his changeup. I love this pitch and I honestly think it’s better than his slider. It has excellent fading action and it is nearly unhittable when paired with his fastball. He likes to throw it down and out to right-handers, but I think it’s good enough to play against left-handers too.
My problem with it is that he doesn’t throw it enough. The pitch tunnels very well with outside fastballs as the fastball rises and the changeup fades well below a hitter’s bat.
I’ve graded the two pitches the same, but I would give his changeup a slight edge although his ability to vary his slider in the zone and to hitters on both sides of the plate is a big plus.
We know that Hjerpe can miss bats. And that’s because he’s unique. All his stuff plays up because of his deception, weird arm slot, and ability to tunnel his whole arsenal. That’s a big reason for his 14 strikeouts per nine innings in his final year of college. But he’s more than just someone who misses bats.
I already mentioned that Hjerpe generates a lot of uncomfortable swings and freezes a lot of hitters and that’s how you can tell his stuff is better than it might look based on velocity or spin rate readings.
Because he makes hitters uncomfortable, he keeps them off balance, and that means that hitters have a tough time squaring him up. He generates a ton of ground balls, surrendered only three home runs in over 100 innings last year, and allowed just 5.8 hits per nine innings.
A guy who can limit hard contact and strike hitters out is the best of both worlds. It remains to be seen how well he will adjust to the professional game, but I don’t expect him to have many problems at the lower levels of the minor leagues. He is someone who could begin in Peoria or advance there after only a few starts with Palm Beach.
Summary: Cooper Hjerpe is a unique pitcher with tons of deception and an extremely low arm slot. The first-round pick pairs good stuff with potentially above average command and has a chance of being a mid-rotation starter who could move quickly through the system.
Future Value: 50
Role: 4 starter 4:00 FIP/Low closer or high set-up
Risk: High
Brian Walton’s environmental impact report
Brian’s ranking – no. 10
Background
After growing up in the Sacramento area, Hjerpe (pronounced “JER-pee”) committed to Oregon State and was not drafted as a high school senior in 2019. In his freshman year in college, he made six relief appearances and had a 5.25 ERA before the remainder of the 2020 season was canceled due to the pandemic.
In the startup summer Wild Wild West League, Hjerpe pitched well in limited action. He made three starts, including pitching four innings in the championship game. Over 8 1/3 total scoreless innings in the WWWL, he yielded just two hits, walked six and struck out 18.
After moving into the Oregon State rotation in 2021, his results improved. The redshirt freshman pitched in 17 games including 16 starts and posted a 4.21 ERA with 98 strikeouts and 27 walks over 77 innings.
That winter, Hjerpe went to Driveline Baseball in Washington to work on refining his secondary pitches, improving his slider, curve and changeup. The pitcher later called it “investing in myself.”
The focus showed in his sophomore campaign, as he dropped his ERA to 2.53 and cut his walk rate from 3.2 per nine innings to 2.0 per nine. As the Beavers’ no. 1 starter, Hjerpe led NCAA Division I with a school-record 161 strikeouts in 103 1/3 innings. That 14.0 K/9 rate was up markedly from 11.5 the year before.
The many accolades given Hjerpe in 2022 include All-Pac-12 First Team, at least four different All-American honors and the National Pitcher of the Year from both Perfect Game and the College Baseball Foundation. ( A more comprehensive list is posted in his player profile at the top of this article.)
2022 recap
On draft day, the Cardinals clearly wanted Hjerpe, whom they took at 22nd overall. He surely would not have been around when the Cards’ pick came up again in the second round as he was ranked no. 33 by Baseball America prior to the draft and 34th among draft eligible players by MLB Pipeline.
Hjerpe signed for full slot value, $3,182,200.
An individual with knowledge of the Cardinals’ pre-draft thinking told me that they liked Hjerpe so much, they would have taken him fifth overall if that had been their spot. Maybe that was exaggeration and maybe not.
On the record, the organization was excited about their choice, as expected.
“Cooper possesses a tremendous set of weapons in his pitching arsenal that we are ecstatic about adding to our system,” said Cardinals assistant general manager and director of scouting Randy Flores on draft day.
“He has a unique look that can make opposing hitters uncomfortable as evidenced by his high strikeout totals and elite whiff rates,” continued Flores.
After signing, new draftees report to the Cardinals complex in Jupiter, Florida for medical and physical assessments before the playing decision is made.
Hjerpe was one of seven Cardinals 2022-draft pitchers who were not activated on a team roster. The earlier college workloads and the long delay between the end of the college season and post-draft signing coupled are often considered be enough for one season.
They were still working out separately from the Florida Complex League players but under a coordinated daily schedule.
However, not all players went home at the conclusion of the FCL schedule in late August. A few received a nice perk as the Cardinals held behind eight players in reserve (sort of like the big-league taxi squad) until Palm Beach finished its season on September 11.
Hjerpe was among them. I imagine he could have been speaking for all seven when he told me, “Sure, I’d like to get on the mound with Palm Beach and throw an inning. Pitching in games is why we are here.”
That didn’t happen, but Hjerpe and the others gained valuable experience for several more weeks while watching the Beach Birds play and prepare for the Florida State League playoffs.
2023 outlook
“Based on his three-year track record at Oregon State, our scouting department hopes that he can rise quickly through our system once we connect him with our player development staff,” said Flores on draft day.
That connection initially began midway through the summer of 2022.
In fact, it very well could be that Hjerpe’s late 2022 stint auditing Palm Beach will be his only time spent in Low-A, albeit unofficial. If any of the 2022 drafted pitchers yet to debut jump to High-A Peoria to open the 2023 regular season, it should be Hjerpe. That assumes everything is normal in spring training, of course.
Future outlook
A scout commented about the organization’s draft and their first-rounder specifically.
“The Cardinals always have a non-sexy draft, so Hjerpe fits,” the evaluator said. “He could have success as a reliever, but he holds his velo deep into games. So, I would give him the chance to start until he proves not.”
This scenario reminds me of the path taken by another high potential college lefty taken in the first round three years earlier, Zack Thompson. The former Kentucky star did not pitch out of the bullpen until reaching the majors.
If Hjerpe spends a conservative one season per level, he could pitch in Double-A in 2024 and Triple-A in 2025. The organization’s first Rule 5 decision on him would be due following the latter season and position him to make his St. Louis debut in 2026. But he should throw a professional pitch before we take this any further…
MLB debut: 2026
Rule 5 Eligible: 2025
Exclusively for members of The Cardinal Nation
Our 2023 Top 50 series continues
To see the entire list of top Cardinals prospects, grading scales and remaining article schedule, click here. This includes the Top 50 countdown and 12 in-depth, follow-up articles breaking down the list.
50 Days, 50 Nights, 50 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects for 2023
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© 2023 The Cardinal Nation, thecardinalnation.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #11 – Jonathan MejiaAt no. 11 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2023 top prospect countdown is a Dominican shortstop who received a very large bonus to sign and had a good offensive debut. Still, 17-year-old Jonathan Mejia is a long way from St. Louis.
TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #12 – Joshua BaezThe Cardinal Nation’s 2023 top prospect countdown reaches no. 12 with a very toolsy and promising outfielder whose 2022 was interrupted by injury. Still a teen, Joshua Baez’ future remains bright.
TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #13 – Brycen MautzAt no. 13 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2023 prospect countdown is the Cardinals’ second rounder in 2022. What sets lefty Brycen Mautz apart and what is his ceiling?
TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #14 – Moisés GómezAt no. 14 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2023 prospect countdown is the 2022 Minor League Baseball home run champion one scout calls a poor man’s Cespedes or Puig. But where will Moisés Gómez fit in a crowded St. Louis outfield?
photo: Inohan Paniagua (Ryan Dowd/Blue Leprechaun Photography)
Coming in at no. 15 on The Cardinal Nation’s Top 50 prospect countdown for 2023 is a two-time Pitcher of the Month in 2022 who only reached Peoria late in the season. Inohan Paniagua was left unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft but was not taken. What is next? FREE report!
Position: Pitcher
Age: 22 years old
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight – 6’1/151
Acquired: International free agent signed December 2017
Home: Bonao, Dominican Republic
Opened 2022: Palm Beach Cardinals (Low-A)
Primary team in 2022: Palm Beach Cardinals (Low-A)
Finished 2022: Peoria Chiefs (High-A)
Prior Top 50 ranking – 2022 #48
Click on the above photo to be taken to Paniagua’s player page at The Cardinal Nation, with additional biography and history information.
Link to Paniagua’s career stats
Blake Newberry’s scouting report
Blake’s ranking – no. 16
(current grade/future grade)
| FB | CB | CH | Command | FV |
| 40/55 | 50/60 | 40/50 | 40/55 | 45 |
| IP | G | GS | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% |
| 137.2 | 25 | 25 | 2.81 | 1.053 | 25.8% | 6.9% |
| HR/9 | K/BB | FIP | xFIP | GB% | LOB% | BABIP |
| 0.8 | 3.7 | 3.01 (A)
5.60 (A+) |
3.62 (A)
4.78 (A+) |
40.5% | 73.5% (A)
76.0% (A+) |
.272 (A)
.257 (A+) |
Inohan Paniagua began the year as The Cardinal Nation’s 48th ranked prospect and he will end it in the top 15. That’s one heck of a jump for the 22-year-old.
He is primarily a three-pitch pitcher with a sinker, a curveball, and a changeup, with his curveball the best of the three. He does throw a fourth offering – a four-seamer – but he doesn’t throw it nearly as often as his sinker.
His sinker gets a lot of run, which helps it play up despite sitting in the low-90s. It is effective when he locates the pitch to his glove side. He works it off the outer edge very well to righties and throws a beautiful front door sinker to lefties. Where he struggles is in pitching inside to righties. He simply doesn’t hit that spot very often.
Inohan Paniagua goes to the outside fastball on the corner for another strikeout. pic.twitter.com/s37JEQbppz
— Kyle Reis, 58% Neanderthal (@kyler416) July 29, 2022
In fact, when the catcher sets up inside, it’s not uncommon to see Panaigua yank the pitch to the outer edge. Even when it’s over the plate, that pitch is often called a ball simply because of how much the catcher needs to move his glove. So, not only does Paniagua not establish his fastball in all parts of the zone, he also costs himself some strikes. This is the biggest weakness of a fastball that I think has the potential to be above average given its large amount of arm side run from a somewhat low arm slot.
It’s a similar story with his curveball. I like the pitch a lot (and I mean, a lot), but he needs to improve his command of it as it can sometimes get away from him and he doesn’t always put it where he should. Specifically, Paniagua is caught between two negatives. He either leaves his curveball up a bit too much where it can be hit or he spikes it into the ground where it doesn’t tempt the hitter.
https://twitter.com/stl_highlights/status/1557580114543755264
I love the downward action of the pitch and I think it can truly be a plus pitch or even better, but he needs to learn how to finish it, especially in two strike pitcher’s counts. The same can be said of his fastball as he sometimes has a tendency to sky it when using it as a strikeout pitch.
The good news is that he struck out over 25% of the hitters he faced despite having room to grow with putting hitters away. His stuff is very good, particularly his sinker and his curveball, and that’s part of the reason why he is ranked so highly despite having some flaws.
Inohan Paniagua plowing through 'em.
The @Cardinals' No. 27 prospect was almost untouchable, striking out seven in for the @peoriachiefs. pic.twitter.com/SrJepU3VL1
— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) August 14, 2022
His final offering is a changeup that looks to have improved from last year. It sits around 84 mph but seems to have more sink and fade than it did a year ago. It’s still basically a lefty-only pitch, although it does get a good number of whiffs. His next step is to learn how to throw it more to right-handed hitters.
Beyond that, Paniagua doesn’t throw anything else. That is a little bit of a concern for me as he’s really a sinker/curveball only against right-handed hitters and both of those pitches still need some work. He dominated A-ball but the holes in his game make me wonder how he will fare against more advanced competition.
His results weren’t fantastic in his first eight High-A outings and that shouldn’t be held against him as there’s always an adjustment period when moving to a new level. I do think he needs some more refinement before he’s ready for Double-A and it may behoove him to add another pitch to his arsenal.
The good news is that, according to Peoria Chiefs play-by-play commentator Cory Schindler, Paniagua likes to tinker and experiment with pitches. He apparently played with a slider/cutter and a splitter in the spring, and I would love to see him bring one of those offerings into his arsenal to add another look for hitters. He may also want to make sure it’s a weapon he can use against left-handers as he had some heavy platoon splits (.575 OPS against RHBs, .722 OPS against LHBs).
I do think there’s more reliever risk for Paniagua that is probably typical of a top-15 pitching prospect but there’s also a lot of upside and that’s ultimately why I ranked him so high. Part of his upside is due to his projectability.
The right-hander is listed at 6’1” and 151 pounds so he has plenty of room to add weight to his frame and maybe get that velocity to tick into the mid-90s consistently. Then, that pitch could be a plus offering. A mid-90s sinker with a ton of arm side run can be a dangerous pitch. I want to add that I don’t believe Paniagua’s listed height is accurate because he looks smaller than that on video. I could be totally wrong, but he looks about as 6’1” as I do and I am just barely 6 feet tall. I think Paniagua is closer to 5’11” or 6 feet even. Regardless, he still has plenty of frame to which to add weight.
Paniagua is an athletic pitcher with an easy arm action and another 20 or 30 pounds of good weight could really make a difference for him and help his stuff tick higher. It’s also because of his athleticism and arm speed that I am willing to grade his command as potentially above average despite higher than average walk rates throughout his career.
His walk rate was just 5.8% in Palm Beach this year which is a huge development for him, but then it jumped to 9.75 in Peoria. It is fair to wonder if that was due in part to fatigue as he threw almost 100 innings prior to his promotion after never clearing 60 in a single season previously.
Workload is an important factor to consider for young players, and especially young pitchers, as they not only need to develop their skills but also their strength and stamina to be able to sustain the wear and tear of a full baseball season. That’s why I’m not worried at all about some of his struggles in Peoria and I think he will give a better account of himself when he returns there to start the 2023 season.
Because of the issues I mentioned above but also his strengths and his projectability, Paniagua’s future is wide open. I don’t feel confident saying that he is a surefire starter, but I do think he’s a really good arm and I believe in his stuff and his arm talent.
Summary: Inohan Paniagua is a pitcher who really emerged in 2022 and he is a really talented arm with some reliever risk despite being an athletic pitcher with good arm speed, three above average or better offerings, and plenty of projectability.’
Future Value: 45
Role: 4/5 Starter 4.20 FIP/ Low set up
Risk: High
Brian Walton’s environmental impact report
Brian’s ranking – no. 14
Background
Paniagua was a relatively late sign, coming to terms with the Cardinals in December 2017, three months short of his 18th birthday. His signing bonus was $160,000. He debuted in the 2018 Dominican Summer League and crafted a 3.77 ERA over 14 starts. He famed 51 and walked 16 in 57 1/3 innings.
For 2019, Paniagua was promoted to the US. Paniagua essentially made the jump from rookie ball to Class-A between that season and 2021. He did have two rough starts with State College in 2019, but primarily was a rotation member for the CCL Cardinals, where he logged a 5.98 ERA.
Paniagua opened the 2021 season in Palm Beach’s bullpen but earned a rotation spot by late May. Interestingly, he was better starting, with a 3.22 ERA and a .156 batting average against. Out of the pen, his marks were 4.50 and .272, respectively.
Given his solid results with the Beach Birds in 2021, including an overall 3.88 ERA, 3.64 xFIP and an impressive 12.0 strikeouts per nine in 46 1/3 innings, it may be surprising to some that he was not the recipient of an in-season promotion.
That could especially be the case when considering the inflated team ERAs across the system. Specifically, at the next level above, the High-A Peoria Chiefs’ team ERA was over five runs per nine innings in 2021 and his own Palm Beach club was at 5.66, a mark that includes his own far above average results.
Still, there was a reason Paniagua was not promoted to Peoria.
Injury. He missed almost two months of the season, from June 19 to August 17. Likely not fully built up upon his activation from the IL, Paniagua spent the final month of the season working out of the Beach Birds’ bullpen, gradually increasing the length of his outings to a third inning.
During 2021, Paniagua was effective versus both righties and lefties, with a batting average against of .230 and .207, respectively.
His control declined a bit in 2021 but it may be at least partially due to the big step up in competition. In rookie ball, his walks per nine innings were below three. Last season, it rose to 3.69.
Based on his 2.5 earned runs per nine innings improvement from his 6.38 ERA in 2019 short-season ball and over a run improvement over his career ERA prior to 2021, Paniagua was a contender for our 2021 Comeback Pitcher of the Year honors.
He also snared another award – The Cardinal Nation’s 2021 Emerging Pitcher of the Year.
2022 recap
In a surprise (at least to me), Paniagua not only was sent back to Palm Beach to open 2022, he remained there for a majority of the season. This is not what I had expected from a talented, emerging pitcher who would become Rule 5 eligible that fall. I thought he would have been promoted forward aggressively, but that did not happen.
As it was, to finally get to Peoria, it took him earning two consecutive organization Pitcher of the Month Awards, covering June and July. Paniagua was also the Florida State League’s Pitcher of the Month in early July.
In all fairness to the Cardinals, Paniagua was actually moved up on July 26, so he hadn’t quite yet been named that Pitcher of the Month, but with the exception of his initial Peoria outing, his July results were already in the books.
He finished his second season as a Beach Bird with a stellar 2.18 ERA over 17 starts. Paniagua collected 107 strikeouts against 23 free passes issued in 99 FSL frames. His FIP was 3.01 and his BABIP was a bit low at .274.
Palm Beach manager Gary Kendall looked back at Paniagua’s time with his squad.
“He was great for us here,” Kendall said. “He was Pitcher of the Week twice and now he is helping Peoria. He was a big guy for us.
“Real good breaking ball, very good changeup and he’s got a good heater. He locates, elevates when he needs to. He’s got a really live arm,” the manager said.
In the six weeks remaining in the Midwest League season, Paniagua made eight starts for Peoria. He had two clunkers, during which he was charged with seven and six runs, respectively, but in the other six outings, he allowed a total of just six runs, all earned.
For the Chiefs, Paniagua had a 4.42 ERA over 38 2/3 innings. He struck out 38 and walked 16. Despite holding MWL batters to a collective .236 average, the eight home runs yielded stood out for the wrong reason. In his three prior seasons, 2018, 2019 and 2021, only nine balls left the park in almost 160 innings. So, this recent long ball phenomena will bear watching in 2023 as do his extreme left-right splits which Blake pointed out.
Paniagua’s 2022 total of 137 2/3 innings pitched ranked fifth-most in the entire system, meeting a target set by Cardinals player development.
“His growth, being able to log innings, because he is a wiry-framed guy, I think they had a plan to beef him up a little bit and be able to maintain over the length of the season,” Kendall said. “He’s been really good.”
Looking back at 2022, Paniagua was named The Cardinal Nation’s Palm Beach Starting Pitcher of the Year, edging out Tink Hence and Trent Baker, among other standouts.
In the fall, the Cardinals gambled by not protecting Paniagua from the Rule 5 Draft, but it paid off when he was not selected by any of the other 29 organizations on December 7. His relative inexperience in the context of being able to immediately contribute at the MLB level was likely the main factor.
2023 outlook
The Cardinals bought another year before having to decide whether or not to protect Paniagua again in the fall of 2023. Given his limited duration in Peoria in 2022, he seems a prime candidate to return to the Chiefs rotation to open 2023.
Considering where Paniagua is in his career, a Springfield promotion by mid-season would be good. Promotions should never be expected, but if Paniagua holds MLB hopes, he needs to become a fast mover – or at least not be a slow one!
Future outlook
Paniagua’s clock is ticking. Following the 2024 season, he could become eligible to walk away as a minor league free agent. Assuming he continues to progress, that shouldn’t be a factor. But if he doesn’t earn his way onto the roster, it means he did not develop as hoped. As with every prospect, no matter how much promise he may hold, this remains a real possibility – until it isn’t.
The Cardinals have many good starting pitching prospects who will be in direct competition with Paniagua over the next two years. His results will be the biggest factor in setting his future role, but a pen shift would not be too surprising later on.
MLB debut: 2025
Rule 5 Eligible: 2022 (not taken)
Exclusively for members of The Cardinal Nation
Our 2023 Top 50 series continues
To see the entire list of top Cardinals prospects, grading scales and remaining article schedule, click here. This includes the Top 50 countdown and 12 in-depth, follow-up articles breaking down the list.
50 Days, 50 Nights, 50 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects for 2023
Not yet a member?
If you enjoyed this article, please consider joining The Cardinal Nation to receive the most comprehensive coverage of the St. Louis Cardinals from the majors through the entire minor league system, including access to every article in our 2023 Top Cardinals Prospects series.
© 2022 The Cardinal Nation, thecardinalnation.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #16 – Pete HansenAt no. 16 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2023 prospect countdown for 2023 is the Cardinals’ third rounder and third college lefty drafted in 2022. What differentiates Pete Hansen and what development remains?
TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #17 – Leonardo BernalThe Cardinal Nation’s 2023 prospect no 17 is a fast-rising 18-year-old who played well at High-A Palm Beach in his first year in the US. Who is Leonardo Bernal and what is next for the catcher?
TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #18 – Freddy PachecoAt no. 18 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2023 prospect countdown is our top reliever in the system for two years running. This should be the year hard-throwing Freddy Pacheco makes his debut, but what will he need to do to stick in the bigs?
TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #19 – Connor ThomasThe Cardinal Nation’s 2023 prospect no. 19 is a left-hander who elevated his game with a new pitch in the Arizona Fall League and earned a 40-man roster spot. When will Connor Thomas reach St. Louis and in what role?
photo: Jake Walsh (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)
Opening the top 20 of The Cardinal Nation’s Top 50 prospect countdown for 2023 is a reliever who just needs good health to stake out an MLB job. But can Jake Walsh shake the injury bug? FREE report!
Position: Pitcher
Age: 27 years old
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight – 6’2/215
Acquired: Selected in the 16th round of the 2017 First-Year Player Draft, 484th overall.
Home: Indialantic, Florida
Opened 2022: Memphis Redbirds (Triple-A)
Primary team in 2022: Memphis Redbirds (Triple-A)
Finished 2022: Memphis Redbirds injured list (Triple-A)
Prior Top 50 ranking – 2022 #27, 2019 #44
Click on the above photo to be taken to Walsh’s player page at The Cardinal Nation, with additional biography and history information.
Blake Newberry’s scouting report
Blake’s ranking – no. 24
(current grade/future grade)
| FB | CH | CB | Command | FV |
| 55/60 | 40/45 | 55/60 | 40/45 | 45 |
| IP | G | GS | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% |
| 18 | 16 | 0 | 3.00 | 1.28 | 34.6% | 11.5% |
| HR/9 | K/BB | FIP | xFIP | GB% | LOB% | BABIP |
| 0.5 | 3.0 | 2.86 (AAA)
2.74 (MLB) |
3.73 (AAA)
4.40 (MLB) |
29.3% | 90.4% (AAA)
33.3% (MLB) |
.303 (AAA)
.429 (MLB) |
Jake Walsh was one of the harder pitchers for me to rank. On one hand, he’s been excellent whenever he’s been on the mound but on the other hand, he hasn’t been on the mound very often. He’s already 27 years old but he’s only thrown 41 ⅔ innings (51 ⅔ if we count his AFL stint in 2021) since the end of the 2018 season.
In the end, I decided that 24th was the right spot for him but I do think he has the talent to be ranked higher. I simply want to see him on the mound more before I pull the trigger and put him in my personal top 20.
He does have a very high floor in my mind as a reliever with two plus pitches and a third pitch that flashes at times. His command lags behind and I may actually be a bit optimistic by giving him a 45 but I could also be a bit pessimistic with that too as it may improve once he gets healthy and has consistent mound time. That’s the thing I really don’t know how to grade yet.
I feel confident in my plus grades of his fastball and curveball. His fastball sits 95 but can touch the upper 90s with 2300 rpms of spin. It also has some good life to it. I have it as an above average pitch right now that could become a true plus pitch once he commands it better.
And with this strikeout, Jake Walsh records the save and closes out the Memphis season with a win. Fastball then a curve, an unhittable duo here. Fastball in the 95-ish range pic.twitter.com/csWlEbCSNd
— Kyle Reis, 58% Neanderthal (@kyler416) October 3, 2021
Jake Walsh goes back to the fastball to close out the victory for Memphis. It was an impressive display of power at the plate and in relief tonight for Memphis.
Of note in this at-bat, Jake Walsh was working so quickly that the ump had to grant himself time. True story pic.twitter.com/b6fvOjMl7i
— Kyle Reis, 58% Neanderthal (@kyler416) April 28, 2022
His curveball is my favorite pitch, though, and I was on the fence about making it a potential 65. This is the pitch that he thrives on. It’s a big downer curveball that sits in the low-80s with around 2500 rpms of spin and generates a ton of whiffs. It has sharp downward movement that dives below bats and often makes hitters look uncomfortable.
It looks like this:
Welcome to the Show, Jake Walsh!
First three batters, 2 strikeouts 💪 pic.twitter.com/DtwB64ttXq
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) May 12, 2022
First off, I want you to notice the nasty break on that pitch. I also want you to notice that it froze the hitter despite being left at the top of the zone. Or maybe it was because it was at the top of the zone. Regardless, you can see that he missed his spot as Yadier Molina set up at the bottom of the zone.
This pitch feels indicative of Walsh to me. His stuff is great and he can still be effective when he misses his spot. If he could improve his command, though, he would be even more effective. As I said earlier, simply staying healthy may help a lot with that.
He also throws a changeup that isn’t used much and isn’t consistent enough to be an average pitch yet but it does flash above average at times. He doesn’t need this pitch to be an effective reliever but it could make him that much better if he could bring a full three-pitch arsenal to every hitter.
Mechanically, I don’t have any major concerns with Walsh. He has a smooth, if somewhat high effort delivery. He really explodes with his lower half but he doesn’t get a ton of extension. He does keep the same arm slot, arm speed, and release point with both his fastball and his curveball and that helps both pitches play up.
Walsh is someone I expect to see in St. Louis in 2023. Really the only thing that has held him back is health. If he had been completely healthy the past few years, I would have expected him to already have a full-time role in the Cardinals bullpen. He is not a finished product yet as his command and his changeup still have some room for improvement, but I think he could be a good reliever right now.
Summary: Jake Walsh has two plus pitches and good enough command to be a major league middle relief option in 2023. Health and command are the biggest questions with him but if the former improves, the latter may as well.
Future Value: 45
Role: Low set up
Risk: Low
Brian Walton’s environmental impact report
Brian’s ranking – no. 18
Background
Walsh pitched in relief after signing in 2017, but that was not concerning since he had already thrown in his spring college campaign at Florida Southern. Further, it also helps explain why Walsh did not register on our prospect radar that winter. After all, a successful college pitcher should do well in relief in the Appalachian League – and he did. We named him our top first-year reliever – both at Johnson City and for the entire system.
Walsh pitched well enough in 2018 spring training not just to make the Peoria roster but receive Opening Day honors. Despite throwing a full workload of 139 2/3 innings between the two levels of Class-A ball, Walsh finished strongly. In fact, his 1.38 ERA in August was good enough for him to be named the system-wide Pitcher of the Month by both The Cardinal Nation and the Cardinals organization. Walsh went five or more innings in 24 of 26 appearances in 2018 while logging a 2.24 ERA.
From there, Walsh’s career took a major pause from which he has yet to fully recover. Elbow soreness that surfaced just prior to spring training 2019 led to months of rehab attempts before a UCL tear was diagnosed. Walsh finally had Tommy John surgery that August. He missed almost all of 2019 due to injury and he had to sit out 2020 as well, due to the COVID shutdown.
As the result of his medical situation, age and uncertain role going forward, Walsh fell out of our Top 50 heading into the 2020 and 2021 seasons. He earned his way back on, however.
Upon his return in 2021, Walsh became a dominant reliever and his 1.50 ERA was a very bright spot among a Springfield bullpen corps that registered a collective ERA of 5.95 that was dead last in the Double-A Central League.
For his part, Walsh was consistent from the start and became a trusted finisher, serving as his team’s last pitcher in 10 of his 13 outings. The Florida native was versatile, pitching anywhere from 1/3 of an inning to covering 3 2/3 innings (the latter on just one hit and no walks with five strikeouts). His fastball was clocked up to 98 and touched 100 that summer, according to reports from Hammons Field.
From there, the bumps in the road to St. Louis returned, however. Walsh was out from June until early September 2021, first due to injury, then as part of the COVID wave that swept through the Double-A Cardinals roster that August.
As the season neared its end, Walsh was promoted to Triple-A Memphis. With the Redbirds, he logged four one-inning outings, two clean and two with two runs on his ledger.
As the Triple-A schedule concluded in early October, Walsh directly transitioned to the Arizona Fall League prospect showcase, where he was trusted with late inning work for the Glendale Desert Dogs,
In the desert, Walsh saved four of five opportunities, but logged an ERA of 8.10 in the process. The right-hander allowed far too much traffic on the bases, with 15 hits and six walks in 10 innings. Walsh fanned 10.
Walsh was one of four prospects promoted onto the 40-man roster, with his addition made as the AFL season concluded in November. Given his velocity and potential, it was a decision we predicted here at TCN.
2022 recap
Walsh reported to Jupiter for his first major league camp and pitched well enough to compete for one of the final bullpen spots until the very last cut, when another rookie, Andre Pallante, won out.
Through May 10, Walsh was exceptional for Memphis, working nine games in relief and allowing just one earned run in 11 innings for a 0.82 ERA while converting all six save opportunities. He fanned 16 and walked five. At that point, he received his first call to St. Louis.
After 10 days, Walsh was returned to Memphis with a few dents, but none were fatal. In his first three MLB appearances totaling 2 2/3 innings, he was touched for four earned runs (13.50 ERA) on three hits, four walks and a hit batter against five strikeouts.
On June 5, Walsh was called up again, but for just two days as the Cards wanted an extra reliever during a tight stretch of games vs. the Cubs. That time up, he did not pitch.
Back in Memphis, Walsh was removed from his first return outing due to injury after retiring just one batter. Following that June 8 truncated appearance, he went on Memphis’ injured list. At that point, it was not expected to be serious and it was thought he could return in 2022.
After several weeks, he received a PRP injection to facilitate healing in his right elbow – the same one that required TJS back in 2019. By then it was late June, and the hope was that he could return to pitching in August. That did not transpire, however, with no further news as to what happened.
Walsh finished his 2022 with Memphis with a 1.17 ERA and .196 batting average against while striking out 22 in 15 1/3 innings. He converted all six save opportunities but not as appealing were his seven walks issued.
2023 outlook
At his age, the bloom is off Walsh as a prospect – at least according to most national raters. One of them reached out to me informally to bounce his Cardinals prospect rankings thoughts off me. He left Walsh off his top 30 and questioned my somewhat aggressive no. 18 ranking.
If Walsh’s elbow problems are back to stay, he might prove to be right. On the other hand, if healthy and not too rusty from the long layoff, Walsh should again be in the thick of the spring St. Louis bullpen derby.
Even in his best case, however, his relatively low status on the pen totem pole and his remaining options makes him a prime candidate to become a regular rider on the I-55 shuttle between St. Louis and Memphis. That will change once he tastes some big-league success and secures a more stable role with the Cardinals. That should be in 2023, but that shouldn’t be his final opportunity.
Future outlook
It is important to not lose sight of the fact that the Cardinals did not try to sneak Walsh through waivers in an attempt to reuse his 40-man roster spot on another player. That tells me they still have confidence that Walsh is going to help St. Louis.
While his age may suggest a sense of urgency, that is really not the case. Walsh still has two years of minor league options remaining. That means he would not have remain in the majors full time until spring 2025. Barring another long outage that would limit his career for health reasons, this should give him more than enough time to prove his mettle on a major league mound.
Until/unless he proves otherwise, I think Walsh has a decent MLB relief career ahead.
MLB debut: 2022
Rule 5 Eligible: not applicable (40-man roster member)
Exclusively for members of The Cardinal Nation
Our 2023 Top 50 series continues
To see the entire list of top Cardinals prospects, grading scales and remaining article schedule, click here. This includes the Top 50 countdown and 12 in-depth, follow-up articles breaking down the list.
50 Days, 50 Nights, 50 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects for 2023
Not yet a member?
If you enjoyed this article, please consider joining The Cardinal Nation to receive the most comprehensive coverage of the St. Louis Cardinals from the majors through the entire minor league system, including access to every article in our 2023 Top Cardinals Prospects series.
© 2022 The Cardinal Nation, thecardinalnation.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #21 – Won-Bin ChoThe Cardinal Nation’s 2023 prospect no. 21 is a high-profile 2022 signing from Korea as a teen. Won-Bin Cho dodged injuries in rookie-ball, but showed glimpses of what he could become.
TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #22 – Jimmy CrooksAt no. 22 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2023 prospect countdown is the organization’s first hitter drafted in 2022 and he delivered the best first-year offensive results in the system. What is next for catcher Jimmy Crooks?
TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #23 – Luis PiñoThe Cardinal Nation’s 2023 prospect countdown reaches no. 23 with one of the organization’s youngest players in the US in 2022. Cuban Luis Piño has yet to develop his considerable power potential.
TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #24 – Austin LoveAt no. 24 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2023 prospect countdown is the system’s strikeout king in his first full season of professional ball. Austin Love needs to find an answer against left-handed batters to progress as hoped, however.
photo: Trent Baker (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)
The Cardinal Nation’s Top 50 prospect countdown for 2023 opens its second half with a big right-hander who had a very good but inconsistent first full season in 2022 with Low-A Palm Beach. FREE report!
Position: Pitcher
Age: 24 years old
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight – 6’4/240
Acquired: Selected in the ninth round of the 2021 First-Year Player Draft, 271st overall
Home: Georgetown, Texas
Opened 2022: Palm Beach Cardinals (Low-A)
Primary team in 2022: Palm Beach Cardinals (Low-A)
Finished 2022: Palm Beach Cardinals (Low-A)
Prior Top 50 ranking – unranked
Click on the above photo to be taken to Baker’s player page at The Cardinal Nation, with additional biography and history information.
Blake Newberry’s scouting report
Blake’s ranking – no. 29
(current grade/future grade)
| FB | CH | SL | Command | FV |
| 40/55 | 35/60 | 30/50 | 40/50 | 40 |
| IP | G | GS | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% |
| 123.1 | 25 | 25 | 3.14 | 1.31 | 26.0% | 9.1% |
| HR/9 | K/BB | FIP | xFIP | GB% | LOB% | BABIP |
| 0.58 | 2.9 | 3.46 | 3.90 | 36.3% | 73.5% | .322 |
Trent Baker is another pitcher I haven’t seen much of, which again, makes me hesitant to rank him as high as I did. He spent his entire season in Palm Beach and the Cardinals Single-A affiliate doesn’t stream their games on MiLB TV, so that means I have only had limited exposure to what Baker can do on the mound.
While I may not be able to find video of Palm Beach’s games, I can get Statcast data for it, and that helps with my evaluation of Baker.
Baker is another pitching prospect with a solid three-pitch mix that should help him stay in the rotation. His primary pitch is a 92-94 mph sinker that averages around 2300-2400 rpm and touches 95 mph fairly regularly. It actually gets a decent amount of whiffs despite generally being known as a pitch-to-contact offering.
That isn’t his best pitch, though. That distinction belongs to his changeup. He throws it to both lefties and righties and gets a ton of whiffs on it. One area of improvement could be throwing it in the zone a little bit more. That would make it a more consistent and dangerous offering while helping his walk rate tick down.
Finally, Baker throws a slider that he uses as a third pitch. It doesn’t get as many whiffs as his changeup but is still a solid, potential average or better, offering.
From my limited looks at him, Baker seems to have a pretty clean, standard motion which pairs well with his strong 6’4”, 240-pound frame. Add three potential average or better pitches to that and you have someone that clearly looks like a starting pitcher.
Another thing I like is that Baker was better against lefties than he was against righties. Part of that can probably be attributed to his changeup but it’s another good sign that should help keep Baker in the rotation as he progresses further through the system.
The last thing I want to mention is that Baker won the Florida State League pitching triple crown as he led the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts. That’s due in part to the fact that he spent the whole season at the level but he also simply pitched really well. It’s a great accomplishment for someone in his first full professional season.
This is a little bit of a shorter write up because I haven’t been able to see Baker with my own eyes very much so I can’t dive into his profile as much as I’d like. From what I have seen, though, I think Baker has good potential and is a surefire starter. I see much less reliever risk with him that I do with other arms which is partially why I was willing to bump him as high as I did in my rankings.
The soon-to-be 24-year-old is one of the players I’m most excited to see with my own eyes next year, and that should be in Peoria’s rotation.
Summary: Trent Baker is a surefire starter prospect with a strong frame, clean mechanics, and three average or better pitches. His changeup is his best pitch and helps him pitch effectively to both lefties and righties, which is another point in his favor. He has yet to pitch above Single-A but he has established himself as a prospect to watch.
Future Value: 40
Role: Backend Starter (5.00 FIP)/Middle Relief
Risk: High
Brian Walton’s environmental impact report
Brian’s ranking – no. 23
Background
Baker tossed a relatively heavy 106 2/3 innings for Division II Angelo State University prior to the 2021 draft. He finished his fourth year with a 13-1 record, 2.11 ERA and 121 strikeouts. Baker improved his control every season after 5.1 walks per nine innings as a freshman to 1.5 walks per nine innings in his final spring.
Earlier, he drew attention by performing well in the wood bat Northwoods League in 2019 (2.32 ERA). The next summer, he tossed the first five innings of a combined no-hitter in the Texas Collegiate League.
Baker was selected near the end of day two of the 2021 First-Year Player Draft, in the ninth round. The pool amount for his pick was $153,300 and he signed for just $75,000, saving the Cardinals almost $80,000 to help on the overslot signing of seventh-round prep star Alec Willis.
I should add that the relatively low signing bonus was in part due to the fact that as a senior, Baker had no real leverage with the Cardinals. It is true that he was not drafted as a junior in 2020, but he was far from alone. Remember that the COVID year draft was truncated to just five rounds. So Baker was among those caught in between. A positive for the Cardinals is that they will retain his services a year longer by having signed him in 2021 instead of burning a year in 2020 when he wouldn’t have been able to play, anyway.
Overall, Baker’s rookie debut as a professional against the teen hitters in the Florida Complex League was as uninspiring at it was meaningless.
Given his considerable workload in the spring at Angelo State, Baker’s measured professional introduction was understandable. Even so, it didn’t go especially well.
His ERA was 5.87 with a 1.44 WHIP. Baker fanned a strong 11.7 per nine innings and walked 2.3 per nine. However, none of this is particularly telling over just 7 2/3 innings of work.
Yet, as a ninth-rounder, Baker did nothing to push his way onto our Top 50 Prospect List coming into the 2022 season, either.
2022 recap
In a major surprise, Baker scored a non-roster invitation to St. Louis’ spring training camp – before ever having been to minor league camp. He obviously did not last long with the big boys, as he was part of the first cuts, but why was he there in the first place?
It turns out that it was negotiated as part of his signing terms the prior July. It will likely be several more years before Baker is able to earn a repeat invitation. That doesn’t mean he didn’t make progress in 2022, because he did.
Let’s talk about results, because in 2022, Baker delivered, though it was an up and down and back up again year. That kept him on the same squad all season rather than earning him an in-season promotion.
Still, while this is not a Pitcher of the Year competition, the following numbers over one’s first full professional season should not be diminished.
Opening the regular season with Low-A Palm Beach, by the end of the first month Baker was the Florida State League Pitcher of the Week. He earned his first professional win as he held Jupiter to no runs on two hits, no walks and eight strikeouts over seven innings on April 28.
Baker finished April with a 3.15 ERA and dropped it to 1.29 in May. However, he came crashing down to earth in June and July with ERAs of 5.29 and 5.14, respectively. Given that, it is not surprising that Baker was not promoted upward to Peoria along with fellow rotation member Inohan Paniagua in late July.
To his credit, Baker buckled down and yielded just 10 earned runs over his final seven starts in August and September, logging a 2.41 ERA over those 37 1/3 innings.
When I saw Baker in mid-August, his fastball was in the 91-93 mph range and his changeup was 81-85. He was working fast and efficiently, keeping his defense engaged behind him.
For the season, Baker started 25 games and logged 123 1/3 innings on the mound, both tops on the 2022 Beach Birds. Also, team bests were his strikeout total of 138 and his ERA of 3.14.
Sure, one could expect a player who stays on the same team all season long to lead in counting stats, but Baker’s results stack up well across the organization.
Among all starters in the Cardinals system who threw at least 60 innings, Baker was third in ERA, behind only Paniagua and Gordon Graceffo, two prospects who will appear much later in this Top 50 countdown. Baker placed first among system qualifying starters in FIP (3.46) and second in xFIP (3.90). He was also second in strikeout rate (10.1 per nine innings), eighth in walk rate (3.5 per nine) and seventh in K/BB rate (2.9).
Baker delivered for his team as well. He tied for fourth in the system with nine wins. Year to year, he improved his ERA from 5.87 to 3.14, which is one reason he is ranked this year when he was not in 2021.
“He’s a guy that usually pitches deep into games…” said Beach Birds manager Gary Kendall. “He’s a worker. He is not a guy that is very vocal out there. He shows up every fifth day and really goes after hitters.
“I like Trent. I like Trent a lot. He shows a lot of composure. You can’t tell if he is up or behind… He is very efficient. He goes after barrels and has been big for us,” Kendall concluded.
Only because Paniagua and top prospect Tink Hence were also with the Beach Birds was Baker not named our Palm Beach Starting Pitcher of the Year.
2023 outlook
I feel like a broken record for restating this again, but there is going to be significant rotation competition for both Class-A teams to open 2023. This is due to the combination of a strong 2022 Palm Beach rotation and a new flock of very promising starting pitchers from the 2022 draft ready to go.
Even so, Baker’s strong finish should enable him to stake a rotation spot at High-A Peoria for Opening Day. Whether his 2023 ends up looking like his 2022 or he can earn a mid-season promotion remains to be seen, but his overall trend is positive.
Future outlook
If Baker continues on his early one level per season pace, he will have completed his time in Double-A at the end of 2024. At that point, the Cardinals will have to make a 40-man roster decision on him for Rule 5 purposes. The former ninth rounder, drafted in the same class as McGreevy, Graceffo and other talented arms, will need to continue to show mound progress to earn that exclusive recognition.
With his physical build and current combination of offerings, it would not surprise me if around then, Baker is moved into the bullpen. Perhaps in that role, his velocity could pick up and he can become a meaningful MLB reliever with his first introduction during the second half of 2025.
MLB debut: 2025
Rule 5 Eligible: 2024
Exclusively for members of The Cardinal Nation
Our 2023 Top 50 series continues
To see the entire list of top Cardinals prospects, grading scales and remaining article schedule, click here. This includes the Top 50 countdown and 12 in-depth, follow-up articles breaking down the list.
50 Days, 50 Nights, 50 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects for 2023
Not yet a member?
If you enjoyed this article, please consider joining The Cardinal Nation to receive the most comprehensive coverage of the St. Louis Cardinals from the majors through the entire minor league system, including access to every article in our 2023 Top Cardinals Prospects series.
© 2022 The Cardinal Nation, thecardinalnation.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #26 – Alec WillisAt no. 26 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2023 prospect countdown is a 19-year-old right-hander who has thrown just 12 2/3 innings in two years but has significant upside.
TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #27 – Zane MillsThe Cardinal Nation’s 2023 prospect countdown reaches no. 27 with a command and control right-handed starter who earned a High-A promotion in his first full season and improved markedly as the season progressed.
TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #28 – Dionys RodriguezAt no. 28 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2023 prospect countdown is our 2021 Pitcher of the Year. Dionys Rodriguez couldn’t consistently leverage his solid offerings in an uneven 2022 at High-A Peoria.
TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #29 – Victor ScottThe Cardinal Nation’s no. 29 Cardinals prospect for 2023 is the second hitter taken by the organization in the 2022 draft. With a lead off profile, center fielder Victor Scott draws walks and steals bases, but wants more line drives and hits from his bat.
photo: Andre Granillo (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)
The Cardinal Nation’s Top 50 prospect countdown for 2023 reaches no. 30 with the top strikeout thrower in the Cardinals system. Andre Granillo reached Double-A in his first full professional season with more to come. FREE report!
Position: Pitcher
Age: 22 years old
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight – 6’4/245
Acquired: Selected in the 14th round of the 2021 First-Year Player Draft, 421st overall
Home: Hemet, California
Opened 2022: Palm Beach Cardinals (Low-A)
Primary team in 2022: Peoria Chiefs (High-A)
Finished 2022: Springfield Cardinals (Double-A)
Prior Top 50 ranking – unranked
Click on the above photo to be taken to Granillo’s player page at The Cardinal Nation, with additional biography and history information.
Link to Granillo’s career stats
Blake Newberry’s scouting report
Blake’s ranking – no. 30
(current grade/future grade)
| FB | CB | SL | Command | FV |
| 50/60 | 40/50 | 45/55 | 30/40 | 40 |
| IP | G | GS | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% |
| 52.1 | 39 | 0 | 4.13 | 1.41 | 35.7% | 13.0% |
| HR/9 | K/BB | FIP | xFIP | GB% | LOB% | BABIP |
| 0.86 | 2.73 | 3.58 (A)
3.31 (A+) 1.76 (AA) |
3.14 (A)
3.74 (A+) 2.63 (AA) |
32.2% | 80.2% (A)
57.4% (A+) 44.4% (AA) |
.286 (A)
.312 (A+) .675 (AA) |
Andre Granillo had one of the best seasons of any player in the system and it came just one year removed from being a 14th round draft selection. Granillo led all pitchers in the system (min. 50 IP) with a 35.7% strikeout rate and 19% swinging strike rate (h/t to the Post-Dispatch).
He’s a bat misser. Plain and simple. He pitched at three different levels this season and missed bats at each one. After such a successful year, he has jumped from outside our rankings to inside the top 30 and being the second highest ranked relief prospect in the system.
Granillo throws four pitches – a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a slider, and a curveball. I know he also threw a changeup in college but I didn’t see it from him this year. He’s more of a fastball/slider/curveball guy now.
His fastball sits around 95 mph and I’ve seen it as high as 97. It gets a good amount of arm side run and certainly has the potential to be a plus pitch if he can learn to control it a little better. He likes to work inside to right-handers sometimes and the combination of velocity and arm side run helps him do that.
His name is Andre Granillo, and he puts out 🔥
1-1 heading to the ⬇️9⃣ after escaping a bases-loaded, no-out jam! pic.twitter.com/40oi3dmG3C
— Palm Beach Cardinals (@GoPBCardinals) May 1, 2022
Granillo throws two separate breaking balls and sometimes it can be difficult to differentiate between them. His curveball is a true 12-6 offering while his slider gets more sweep but is only thrown about three mph harder. I like the slider better, but I would like to see him throw it harder and sharpen the movement a bit to differentiate the movement and velocity profile. With a fastball that can tick into the upper 90s, he would be well off to develop a pitch that works in the upper 80s.
Even though I said I like the slider better, that’s nothing against his curveball. I think it can be an average pitch at the highest level and that gives him three average to above average pitches to throw at hitters.
This is what his curveball looks like:
Andre Granillo drops the big breaking pitch for his first strikeout of the evening with a couple of runners on pic.twitter.com/Jt5RoJv0yV
— Kyle Reis, 58% Neanderthal (@kyler416) September 16, 2022
And here’s his slider:
Andre Granillo puts one in the dirt and gets the check-swing maybe for a strikeout to end the inning. After allowing the first two hitters to reach base, Granillo struck out the side in the 7th pic.twitter.com/eiZEqOdYmT
— Kyle Reis, 58% Neanderthal (@kyler416) September 16, 2022
One of the things I love about Granillo is that he does a really good job at throwing all three pitches with the same arm speed and from the same arm slot. That gives him enough deception, especially with the two breaking balls, to wreak havoc on a hitter.
Granillo’s weakness is his lack of command. This is not something I’m too worried about, though, to be honest. And I have two reasons for that.
The first is that he gets enough strikeouts to the point where he can be a below average strike thrower and it shouldn’t matter too much. He gets an absurd quantity of whiffs with his ability to mix his high velocity fastball and two good breaking offerings, so when he does throw pitches in the zone, he’s practically unhittable.
The second reason is that a lot has changed for him in a short period of time. He went from college to Double-A in just over a year and he’s still only 22 years old. His stuff may be good enough for him to be a quick riser but he needs some time and consistency to develop better command. Another offseason and some more exposure to Double-A may help with that.
Granillo has the stuff to be a major league reliever but the level of refinement he can reach will determine how soon he gets there and how well he pitches once he’s there. Still, I’m confident enough in his arsenal to give him a medium risk level despite having only one full season as a professional and two innings of Double-A experience to his name.
Overall, he’s a strong arm and it looks like the Cardinals got a steal in the 14th round.
Summary: Granillo is an explosive arm who rose three levels in 2022 and has some of the best pure stuff in the system. He still needs to refine his command but he’s still just 22 years old and has three average to plus pitches.
Future Value: 40
Role: Middle Relief
Risk: Moderate
Brian Walton’s environmental impact report
Brian’s ranking – no. 28
Background
Granillo spent his entire three-year collegiate career in Cal-Riverside’s bullpen, but his 5.98 ERA did not stand out. However, his 12.0 per nine strikeout rate drew notice for the right reason. He also lowered his walk rate from 5.2 BB/9 as a freshman to 3.5 BB/9 in 2021.
A key to Granillo’s selection was his positive experience in multiple summer prospect showcase leagues. In 2020, he logged a 2.29 ERA and 15.6 K/9 in the Northwoods League, and the next summer, he posted a 2.45 ERA with 13.9 K/9 in the Cape Cod League.
Granillo was selected by the Cardinals in the 14th-round of the MLB Draft and from day one, seemed profiled as a reliever. He spent his initial professional summer in Low-A and pitched effectively.
Among first-year Cardinals pitchers, Granillo threw the second most innings (18), had the fourth best ERA (1.50) and a strong strikeout rate (11.5 per nine innings). Of concern was a walk rate (4.5 per nine) that was also second highest among organizational rookies.
All told, it was impressive that a 14th-round pick performed so well while debuting with Single-A Palm Beach.
2022 recap
Granillo got off to a very fast start in his return to Palm Beach to open 2022. In six April appearances covering 10 innings, he fanned 19 against six walks. He allowed just four hits, including two solo home runs for a 1.80 ERA. His batting average against was a system-best .121.
On May 24th, the Cardinals announced 15 player moves across the system, including Granillo’s promotion from Palm Beach to Peoria.
Granillo often worked as the set-up man for Gianluca Dalatri or served as the closer himself. Granillo usually worked a single inning, but the right-hander gave glimpses of multi-inning capabilities, as well.
Striking out 51 in 34 2/3 innings with Peoria, Granillo regularly challenged the zone with his fastball. He compiled a 3.63 ERA with the Chiefs and earned five saves but failed to convert four other opportunities.
While the strikeouts were there all along, Granillo improved his ERA each month from May to June to July to August. His peak was from August 1 through the end of his time with the Chiefs. During that period, he yielded just two earned runs in 14 innings for a 1.29 ERA. He struck out 21 against eight hits and six walks.
On September 9, as the Midwest League schedule ended, the Cardinals promoted several Chiefs to Double-A Springfield, including Granillo. One of his two initial outings was a clunker, during which he surrendered five runs without recording an out. Other than that, he was strong at every level in 2022.
Across the three teams, Granillo was the system’s strikeout king at 14.1 per nine innings, up from 11.5 in 2021. He had quickly earned the trust of his managers as evidenced by his system-leading total of 31 games finished. He tied for fourth in the system with his eight saves.
While it wasn’t a perfect year, Granillo did a lot of things well and was rewarded for them. Remember that 2022 was his first full professional season and he excelled while facing incrementally better competition at the age of 22.
2023 outlook
Almost certainly, Granillo will play an important late-inning role with the 2023 Springfield Cardinals. It may take some time to be successful in the Texas League, a difficult stop for pitchers, but the sooner Granillo can do so, the sooner he can progress to Triple-A.
However, given his rapid ascension in 2022, if he needs all of 2023 to master Double-A, it would not reflect negatively on his career at all. Perhaps at the end of the season, Granillo would be a candidate for the Arizona Fall League.
Future outlook
For the reasons Blake explained, Granillo has the pieces necessary to become a big-league reliever, starting with that impressive 6-foot-4, 245-pound frame. The time it takes for final assembly could be between one and two years more.
The Cardinals have a lot of room to be patient with Granillo if needed, but he may not require it all. He becomes Rule 5 eligible following the 2024 season, but with up to two years more of development, he could already have made his St. Louis debut. If not, perhaps Granillo will reach the majors in early 2025.
MLB debut: 2024
Rule 5 Eligible: 2024
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