photo: Trent Baker (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)
The Cardinal Nation’s Top 50 prospect countdown for 2023 opens its second half with a big right-hander who had a very good but inconsistent first full season in 2022 with Low-A Palm Beach. FREE report!
Position: Pitcher
Age: 24 years old
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight – 6’4/240
Acquired: Selected in the ninth round of the 2021 First-Year Player Draft, 271st overall
Home: Georgetown, Texas
Opened 2022: Palm Beach Cardinals (Low-A)
Primary team in 2022: Palm Beach Cardinals (Low-A)
Finished 2022: Palm Beach Cardinals (Low-A)
Prior Top 50 ranking – unranked
Click on the above photo to be taken to Baker’s player page at The Cardinal Nation, with additional biography and history information.
Blake Newberry’s scouting report
Blake’s ranking – no. 29
(current grade/future grade)
| FB | CH | SL | Command | FV |
| 40/55 | 35/60 | 30/50 | 40/50 | 40 |
| IP | G | GS | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% |
| 123.1 | 25 | 25 | 3.14 | 1.31 | 26.0% | 9.1% |
| HR/9 | K/BB | FIP | xFIP | GB% | LOB% | BABIP |
| 0.58 | 2.9 | 3.46 | 3.90 | 36.3% | 73.5% | .322 |
Trent Baker is another pitcher I haven’t seen much of, which again, makes me hesitant to rank him as high as I did. He spent his entire season in Palm Beach and the Cardinals Single-A affiliate doesn’t stream their games on MiLB TV, so that means I have only had limited exposure to what Baker can do on the mound.
While I may not be able to find video of Palm Beach’s games, I can get Statcast data for it, and that helps with my evaluation of Baker.
Baker is another pitching prospect with a solid three-pitch mix that should help him stay in the rotation. His primary pitch is a 92-94 mph sinker that averages around 2300-2400 rpm and touches 95 mph fairly regularly. It actually gets a decent amount of whiffs despite generally being known as a pitch-to-contact offering.
That isn’t his best pitch, though. That distinction belongs to his changeup. He throws it to both lefties and righties and gets a ton of whiffs on it. One area of improvement could be throwing it in the zone a little bit more. That would make it a more consistent and dangerous offering while helping his walk rate tick down.
Finally, Baker throws a slider that he uses as a third pitch. It doesn’t get as many whiffs as his changeup but is still a solid, potential average or better, offering.
From my limited looks at him, Baker seems to have a pretty clean, standard motion which pairs well with his strong 6’4”, 240-pound frame. Add three potential average or better pitches to that and you have someone that clearly looks like a starting pitcher.
Another thing I like is that Baker was better against lefties than he was against righties. Part of that can probably be attributed to his changeup but it’s another good sign that should help keep Baker in the rotation as he progresses further through the system.
The last thing I want to mention is that Baker won the Florida State League pitching triple crown as he led the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts. That’s due in part to the fact that he spent the whole season at the level but he also simply pitched really well. It’s a great accomplishment for someone in his first full professional season.
This is a little bit of a shorter write up because I haven’t been able to see Baker with my own eyes very much so I can’t dive into his profile as much as I’d like. From what I have seen, though, I think Baker has good potential and is a surefire starter. I see much less reliever risk with him that I do with other arms which is partially why I was willing to bump him as high as I did in my rankings.
The soon-to-be 24-year-old is one of the players I’m most excited to see with my own eyes next year, and that should be in Peoria’s rotation.
Summary: Trent Baker is a surefire starter prospect with a strong frame, clean mechanics, and three average or better pitches. His changeup is his best pitch and helps him pitch effectively to both lefties and righties, which is another point in his favor. He has yet to pitch above Single-A but he has established himself as a prospect to watch.
Future Value: 40
Role: Backend Starter (5.00 FIP)/Middle Relief
Risk: High
Brian Walton’s environmental impact report
Brian’s ranking – no. 23
Background
Baker tossed a relatively heavy 106 2/3 innings for Division II Angelo State University prior to the 2021 draft. He finished his fourth year with a 13-1 record, 2.11 ERA and 121 strikeouts. Baker improved his control every season after 5.1 walks per nine innings as a freshman to 1.5 walks per nine innings in his final spring.
Earlier, he drew attention by performing well in the wood bat Northwoods League in 2019 (2.32 ERA). The next summer, he tossed the first five innings of a combined no-hitter in the Texas Collegiate League.
Baker was selected near the end of day two of the 2021 First-Year Player Draft, in the ninth round. The pool amount for his pick was $153,300 and he signed for just $75,000, saving the Cardinals almost $80,000 to help on the overslot signing of seventh-round prep star Alec Willis.
I should add that the relatively low signing bonus was in part due to the fact that as a senior, Baker had no real leverage with the Cardinals. It is true that he was not drafted as a junior in 2020, but he was far from alone. Remember that the COVID year draft was truncated to just five rounds. So Baker was among those caught in between. A positive for the Cardinals is that they will retain his services a year longer by having signed him in 2021 instead of burning a year in 2020 when he wouldn’t have been able to play, anyway.
Overall, Baker’s rookie debut as a professional against the teen hitters in the Florida Complex League was as uninspiring at it was meaningless.
Given his considerable workload in the spring at Angelo State, Baker’s measured professional introduction was understandable. Even so, it didn’t go especially well.
His ERA was 5.87 with a 1.44 WHIP. Baker fanned a strong 11.7 per nine innings and walked 2.3 per nine. However, none of this is particularly telling over just 7 2/3 innings of work.
Yet, as a ninth-rounder, Baker did nothing to push his way onto our Top 50 Prospect List coming into the 2022 season, either.
2022 recap
In a major surprise, Baker scored a non-roster invitation to St. Louis’ spring training camp – before ever having been to minor league camp. He obviously did not last long with the big boys, as he was part of the first cuts, but why was he there in the first place?
It turns out that it was negotiated as part of his signing terms the prior July. It will likely be several more years before Baker is able to earn a repeat invitation. That doesn’t mean he didn’t make progress in 2022, because he did.
Let’s talk about results, because in 2022, Baker delivered, though it was an up and down and back up again year. That kept him on the same squad all season rather than earning him an in-season promotion.
Still, while this is not a Pitcher of the Year competition, the following numbers over one’s first full professional season should not be diminished.
Opening the regular season with Low-A Palm Beach, by the end of the first month Baker was the Florida State League Pitcher of the Week. He earned his first professional win as he held Jupiter to no runs on two hits, no walks and eight strikeouts over seven innings on April 28.
Baker finished April with a 3.15 ERA and dropped it to 1.29 in May. However, he came crashing down to earth in June and July with ERAs of 5.29 and 5.14, respectively. Given that, it is not surprising that Baker was not promoted upward to Peoria along with fellow rotation member Inohan Paniagua in late July.
To his credit, Baker buckled down and yielded just 10 earned runs over his final seven starts in August and September, logging a 2.41 ERA over those 37 1/3 innings.
When I saw Baker in mid-August, his fastball was in the 91-93 mph range and his changeup was 81-85. He was working fast and efficiently, keeping his defense engaged behind him.
For the season, Baker started 25 games and logged 123 1/3 innings on the mound, both tops on the 2022 Beach Birds. Also, team bests were his strikeout total of 138 and his ERA of 3.14.
Sure, one could expect a player who stays on the same team all season long to lead in counting stats, but Baker’s results stack up well across the organization.
Among all starters in the Cardinals system who threw at least 60 innings, Baker was third in ERA, behind only Paniagua and Gordon Graceffo, two prospects who will appear much later in this Top 50 countdown. Baker placed first among system qualifying starters in FIP (3.46) and second in xFIP (3.90). He was also second in strikeout rate (10.1 per nine innings), eighth in walk rate (3.5 per nine) and seventh in K/BB rate (2.9).
Baker delivered for his team as well. He tied for fourth in the system with nine wins. Year to year, he improved his ERA from 5.87 to 3.14, which is one reason he is ranked this year when he was not in 2021.
“He’s a guy that usually pitches deep into games…” said Beach Birds manager Gary Kendall. “He’s a worker. He is not a guy that is very vocal out there. He shows up every fifth day and really goes after hitters.
“I like Trent. I like Trent a lot. He shows a lot of composure. You can’t tell if he is up or behind… He is very efficient. He goes after barrels and has been big for us,” Kendall concluded.
Only because Paniagua and top prospect Tink Hence were also with the Beach Birds was Baker not named our Palm Beach Starting Pitcher of the Year.
2023 outlook
I feel like a broken record for restating this again, but there is going to be significant rotation competition for both Class-A teams to open 2023. This is due to the combination of a strong 2022 Palm Beach rotation and a new flock of very promising starting pitchers from the 2022 draft ready to go.
Even so, Baker’s strong finish should enable him to stake a rotation spot at High-A Peoria for Opening Day. Whether his 2023 ends up looking like his 2022 or he can earn a mid-season promotion remains to be seen, but his overall trend is positive.
Future outlook
If Baker continues on his early one level per season pace, he will have completed his time in Double-A at the end of 2024. At that point, the Cardinals will have to make a 40-man roster decision on him for Rule 5 purposes. The former ninth rounder, drafted in the same class as McGreevy, Graceffo and other talented arms, will need to continue to show mound progress to earn that exclusive recognition.
With his physical build and current combination of offerings, it would not surprise me if around then, Baker is moved into the bullpen. Perhaps in that role, his velocity could pick up and he can become a meaningful MLB reliever with his first introduction during the second half of 2025.
MLB debut: 2025
Rule 5 Eligible: 2024
Exclusively for members of The Cardinal Nation
Our 2023 Top 50 series continues
To see the entire list of top Cardinals prospects, grading scales and remaining article schedule, click here. This includes the Top 50 countdown and 12 in-depth, follow-up articles breaking down the list.
50 Days, 50 Nights, 50 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects for 2023
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