TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #1 – Jordan Walker

photo: Jordan Walker (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)

Everyone knows Jordan Walker is the clear no. 1 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2023 top prospect countdown. What is unclear, however, is his St. Louis arrival date and the height of his considerable future ceiling. FREE report!

Jordan Walker

Position: Outfielder
Age: 20 years old
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 6’5/230
Acquired: Selected in the first round, 21st overall, in the 2020 First-Year Player Draft

Home: Stone Mountain, Georgia

Opened 2022: Springfield Cardinals (Double-A)
Primary team in 2022: Springfield Cardinals (Double-A)
Finished 2022: Salt River Rafters (Arizona Fall League)

Prior Top 50 ranking – 2022 #2, 2021 #6

Click on the above photo to be taken to Walker’s player page at The Cardinal Nation, with additional biography and history information.

Link to Walker’s career stats

Blake Newberry’s scouting report

Blake’s ranking – no. 1

(current grade/future grade)

Hit Power Field Arm Run FV
45/50 60/70 40/50 70/70 55/45 70
AVG OBP SLG OPS HR SB CS BB% K%
.306 .388 .510 .898 19 22 5 10.8% 21.6%
BB/K ISO wRC+ GB% LD% FB% Pull% Cent% Oppo%
0.50 .204 128 45.5% 23.2% 31.4% 45.9% 25.2% 28.9%

I’ll admit that a 70-grade FV is preposterous. But Jordan Walker is preposterous. I would normally be hesitant to give any player that high of a grade because of the expectations it creates but Jordan Walker’s bat has a chance to be special and his power could be among the best in the game.

I may be getting a little ahead of myself by giving him a 70 FV. I can admit that. But I also am trying to grade players as accurately as I can and Jordan Walker is in a league of his own. Masyn Winn is a supremely talented prospect in his own right but there is a clear gap between he and Walker.

Winn may be the superior athlete and defender but Walker’s bat and immense power push him well ahead of Winn. And he’s a pretty good athlete in his own right. For example, his power is what he’s known for, but he actually tallied more stolen bases than home runs in 2022.

I’ve seen some suggest that Walker may become a 1B/DH type on defense but that simply isn’t the case, in my opinion. It’s certainly possible if Walker continues to add to his 6’5” frame but he has fantastic athleticism for someone of his size and he should have more than enough to hold down a spot in the outfield, where he will get plenty of chances to show off his plus arm that I may have underrated. I say that because he led the system in outfield assists (10) last year despite playing only 31 games in the grass.

His arm isn’t as strong as Winn’s, but it may even be a 65 or a 70. Since I haven’t gotten the chance to see much of it, I am being a little cautious with my grade, but he is absolutely someone that base runners need to think twice (or maybe even three times) about running against.

To my knowledge, he hasn’t been clocked at 100 mph yet, but I don’t doubt that he has it in him.

Walker has more than enough arm to stick in right field so he just needs to patch up his glovework a little bit. But that’s to be expected since he is still so new to the outfield. Reading a fly ball is a skill that takes time to learn, and it can be even harder to read a fly ball in the corner than in center field since balls hook more when they are hit down the line. Since Walker came up as a third baseman, I don’t expect he’s had nearly enough reps to be fully comfortable catching fly balls but that can change with time and effort.

What I will say is that Walker has the athleticism to play the outfield. I have no doubts about that. He is more than a 1B/DH type whose bat gets him in the lineup. His bat will get him in the lineup, make no mistake about that, but he can add value defensively with his above average speed and plus (at least) arm. I haven’t seen enough of him defensively to declare that he will be a good defender, but average seems well within the realm of possibilities.

He is the rare case of a top prospect who could benefit from being kept in the minors to work on his defense. He is simply too new to the position and he shouldn’t be brought up to DH, as he needs the reps in the outfield.

We’re now well into this write-up and I have yet to talk about the thing that Walker does best – namely clobber the ball. Let’s get to that now.

Walker’s first Double-A home run this year was a scorcher that traveled 109 mph off the bat. That’s an impressive home run but he does things like that consistently.

You can get a good look at his mechanics and his tremendous power from this video of one of his five AFL home runs.

Walker has clean and simple mechanics at the plate as he doesn’t need to do a whole lot to generate power. The right-handed hitter starts vertical but crouches down a bit during his load/stride. He has some down and back movement in his hands when he loads. He pairs that with a simple stride forward and a small leg kick, but there’s not a lot of movement and with his quick hands and a relatively short swing path for someone of his size, he does a great job of avoiding strikeouts.

The 20-year-old is quick to the ball and can even get caught out in front at times so he could benefit from waiting a split second longer which is a luxury that is afforded to him due to the quickness of his hands.

He has solid swing mechanics and a great feel for hitting which helped him dominate Double-A pitchers as a 20-year-old. Jacob and Kareem (@CardinalsReek and @KareemSSN on Twitter) gave us his exit velocity numbers for the year to prove that, and, boy, are they impressive.

For context, Juan Soto placed in the 85th percentile in average exit velocity and the 91st percentile in max exit velocity. Now, what this doesn’t mean is that Jordan Walker is Juan Soto. That’s an unfair comparison and, honestly, I’m not even going to try to do a comp with Walker. He’s both extremely talented and unique and it would be unfair to give him the lofty expectations that come with being compared to Soto or anyone else. And I know I gave him a 70 FV, but again, I want to rate him where I think he belongs, and it shouldn’t be disappointing if he only turns into an occasional all-star instead of a consistent top 10 hitter.

His bat is for real, though. There’s no other way to say it. He has a knack for barreling the ball and he makes a lot of contact for someone who is as long-limbed as he is.

The slugger may be known for power, but he has at least an average hit tool which helps him consistently tap into double plus power. The only thing holding his game power back is a propensity to hit too many ground balls. If he can improve on that, it’s not hard to imagine him being a 30+ homer or more guy at the major league level. Pair that with a reasonable average and good patience at the plate and you have a really, really productive hitter.

Walker may be known for his power but his well-rounded blend of skills make him the number 1 overall prospect in the system and one of the best prospects in the game.

Note that I have given a medium rating to his risk factor but that means he has a high risk of reaching his 70-grade FV, not that he has a medium risk of becoming a productive MLB player. That, I feel, is a safe bet.

Summary: Jordan Walker has the most power in the system, but he pairs that with at least an average hit tool, a plus arm, and above average speed to be more than a one-dimensional prospect. His well-rounded game and potentially elite bat give him a ceiling unmatched by any prospect in the system.

Future Value: 70
Role: Top 10 Hitter
Risk: Moderate

Brian Walton’s environmental impact report

Brian’s ranking – no. 1

Background

In 2019, as a junior playing for Decatur High School in Georgia), Walker hit .519 with 17 home runs. He then generated national attention in MLB’s Prospect Development Pipeline League by ranking third with five RBI that summer.

Like so many others, Walker was unable to complete his senior season due to the pandemic, but in May he was named Georgia’s Gatorade Player of the Year for 2020 after hitting .457 with four home runs in 16 games.

Perfect Game was impressed, rating Walker as their no. 2 high school player in the entire 2020 draft and MLB Pipeline ranked him no. 33 among all draft eligibles.

Walker’s signing bonus of $2.9 million was under the slot amount of $3.13 million, with the cost savings used to help cover the gap needed to sign second-rounder Masyn Winn.

Walker was one of just two of the seven players taken by the organization in the 2020 First-Year Player Draft to be included in the 60-man player pool, joining Winn. Organization officials said all the right things about his approach and results. This included exit velocities consistently in the 106- to 107-mph range.

Heading into 2021, Walker made his first appearance in a national top 100 prospect ranking, placing 92nd on Baseball Prospectus’ list. Looking ahead to the next winter, all the other name-brand raters in the field joined BP in recognizing Walker’s considerable potential.

The quick summary of Walker’s 2021 is that he exceeded every expectation for a first-year professional player, especially one who competed at 19 years of age.

Jordan Walker (Palm Beach Cardinals)

Not surprisingly, Walker was challenged out of spring training camp with an assignment to Low-A Palm Beach. After just two weeks, however, he suffered a sprained wrist that kept him out from May 20 until June 12.

At the time of his IL placement, Walker already led Palm Beach in home runs (2), was second in doubles (6) and third in RBI (8). Walker’s slash stats led the team in average at .333, slugging at .600 and OPS at 1.074.

Walker earned Low-A Southeast League Player of the Week honors twice – once before his IL stint (May 10-16) and once immediately afterward (June 14-20).

To observe that Walker came back strongly is an understatement. Though he only played part of June, he earned The Cardinal Nation’s Player of the Month honors, followed by the Cardinals organization’s same recognition. That month, Walker led the Cardinals organization in batting average (.390), slugging (.712), and OPS (1.169).

As the month ended and with his season to date line an absurd .374/.475/.687/1.162 and a 205 wRC+ in 122 plate appearances over 27 games, he received a promotion to A-Advanced Peoria.

Despite being known for his power, the then-third baseman did not collect his first long ball as a Chief until the final week of July. He made up for it late, serving as a power machine in his final 14 games. He batted .292 and smacked five of his eight total long balls with Peoria (and 14 homers overall) to close his first summer in league action.

In his 55 games with the Chiefs, Walker posted a slash line of .292/.344/.487/.831 and a solid 124 wRC+.

While adjusting to the better pitching in High-A, Walker’s walk rate dropped from 14.8% to 6.1% while his strikeout rate rose from 17.2% to 27.0%. He also experienced a decline in power, as his ISO dropped from .313 to .195. These changes are not too concerning, though, considering that 2021 was Walker’s first exposure to High-A just one year after playing in high school.

Jordan Walker (Peoria Chiefs)

Simply put, his 2021 was impressive across the board.

Walker is the only hitter to place among the top five in the Cardinals system in batting average (.317, first), on-base percentage (.388, fourth), slugging (.548, second) and OPS (.936, second) and stolen bases (14, tied for fifth). His success rate stealing was a stellar 87.5%, indicating an unexpecting added dimension to his game.

Because of his games missed, playing in just 82 contests in total, Walker’s counting stats did not reflect a full season. Specifically, he ranked just 21st in the system in plate appearances. Even so, the results hint of even more power and production ahead. His count of 25 doubles was just four off a share of the system lead and his triples total of four tied for fifth in the organization.

Walker’s wRC+ of 151 was second in the system, with only Juan Yepez’ breakout season keeping Jordan from receiving our system-wide Player of the Year honors. Even then, it was close. And Baseball America did bestow upon Walker their system Player of the Year award. Later, so did the Cardinals, but Walker shared the organization-wide honors with Yepez.

Coming off his 2021, Walker was anointed as the Best Power Hitter in the Cardinals system, also by BA, unseating prior honoree Nolan Gorman.

Walker not only blasted his way onto every national top 100 prospect list heading into 2022, he placed very highly. He had one top 10 placement (again, BP was most aggressive at no. 7), another in the top 20, one appearance in the top 25 and another in the top 30.

2022 recap

Walker seemed a lock to score his first-ever invitation to St. Louis’ spring training camp. However, the ongoing lockout put that opportunity in jeopardy. Not yet being on the 40-man roster meant that Walker could have at least joined minor league camp on time.

However, the labor stalemate was settled in time for Walker to receive his first non-roster camp invite. He didn’t stay too long, going 1-for-5 with a single, an RBI and four strikeouts, but he got his feet wet.

As expected, Walker opened 2022 with the Double-A Springfield Cardinals. At 19, he was the youngest player in the Texas League and was one of only two teenagers on an Opening Day Double-A roster.

In May, Walker was already dominating Texas League competition to the tune of a .996 OPS despite being over four years younger than the average player at the level. He had an OBP over .400 as he drew 16 walks and 16 of his 28 hits went for extra bases. The Cardinal Nation named him our Player of the Month.

Jordan Walker (Springfield Cardinals Fanatic Photos)

In July, he participated in the MLB All-Star Futures Game in Los Angeles. Walker was the NL’s cleanup hitter and manned third base.

Soon after, Walker made an in-season move to the outfield full-time.  After manning the hot corner for the first 80 games of the season, Walker started exclusively across all three outfield positions over his final 39 games. Right field will most likely be his future home. He was tested and answered the call as his 10 assists led the system.

Though it didn’t happen in game action until early August, Walker said he began the early stages of learning the outfield in spring training.

“In spring training, I was already working on it,” he said. “Cheo (Jose Oquendo) works with the fielders and is really, really wise in baseball. He is all about versatility and wants you to play wherever you can. He is the one who told me to get some work in the outfield when you can. And Gary (farm director LaRocque) told me the same thing. Taking reads off the bat, it wasn’t really serious then.

“After the All-Star break is when they told me, ‘You are going to move to the outfield,’” Walker recalled.

That still-fresh defensive transition may have been the reason he was not promoted to Triple-A Memphis during the summer despite putting up results that led to his second consecutive organization Co-Player of the Year award.

For the season, Walker slashed .306/.388/.510.898 with 19 home runs, 31 doubles, 22 stolen bases, 100 runs, 68 RBI and a .898 OPS across 119 games for Springfield.  He ranked among Cardinals minor league leaders in batting average (3rd), on-base percentage (9th), slugging (7th), OPS (7th), hits (141, tie 2nd), extra-base hits (53, 3rd), home runs (5th), doubles (tie 3rd), total bases (235, 2nd), runs (1st) and stolen bases (tie 5th).

Walker finished the season one home run short of the first 20 home run/20 stolen base season in Springfield team history. His 100 runs scored led all Texas League players, set a Springfield franchise record and were the most in a single-season by a Cardinals minor league player since 1998.

More positives are evident in his strikeout rate of 21.6%, down from 27% in High-A in 2021, and his walk rate of 10.8%, up from his 6.1% mark with Peoria.

He was named the 2022 Texas League Top MLB Prospect, a Texas League All-Star and was selected as the organization’s Minor League Player of the Year by Baseball America. BA also named Walker as having the system’s Best Outfield Arm, but Moises Gomez unseated him as the Best Power Hitter.

Jordan Walker (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)

Walker’s season was extended into the fall, as he participated in the 2022 Arizona Fall League, He earned selection to the AFL Fall Stars Game and was one of three outfielders named to the All-AFL Team.

From the stat sheet, he slashed .286/.367/.558/.925 with five home runs, six doubles, three stolen bases, 17 runs, 16 RBI and a .925 OPS across 21 games for the Salt River Rafters. Defensively, he spent some time elsewhere in the outfield, but his play was primarily focused on right field.

2023 outlook

Even more so than new catcher Willson Contreras perhaps, Walker may be the most anticipated and watched player in St. Louis’ 2023 spring training camp.

Granted, hyping prospects is part of his job, especially when his club’s winter signing actions were limited to one free agent, Contreras, and no trades. Still, Cardinals President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak shared very specific and extensive praise of Walker in a mid-December interview on KMOX Radio.

John Mozeliak via Zoom (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)

“He’s a complete player, first of all,” the PBO said. “So, he checks almost every box. The one unique skill set he has is that he hits the ball really, really hard, and he does it consistently. Historically, when you look at players that have that kind of trait or skill, they end up being enormously successful in this league.

“I think he is going to be fun to watch. I think Spring Training 2023 is going be where he’s going to get a lot of opportunities and a lot of playing time. From more of fans and general public standpoint, they’re going to see what a lot of us have already got to witness.

“I suspect it is going to look even better than what we’ve seen because he is having a normal off-season, continuing to add strength and physically mature. And when that is happening, it’s exciting to watch. And so, I think the type of player he is, is the type of player you’re always hoping to have in terms of being a legitimate impact player at the major league level,” concluded Mozeliak.

Jordan Walker (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)

With veteran players away for the World Baseball Classic, playing time opportunity in Jupiter should only increase for younger players like Walker.

But would it take tremendous spring numbers from Walker or an injury to a starting outfielder to open the door for Walker in March?

The answers are mixed.

One talent evaluator isn’t expecting to see Walker with St. Louis on Opening Day, but he can’t rule it out, either.

“Normally, I would expect that Walker would be kept in Triple-A at least until May 15 or whatever the date is (that would keep him from Super Two status), barring another injury to (Tyler) O’Neill. But another draft pick may be enough for the Cardinals to bring him up sooner,” the scout said.

As a reminder, the current CBA includes a new incentive for teams to promote top prospects earlier than before, perhaps.

A team is eligible for Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) draft picks if a rookie-eligible player with 60 days or fewer of major league service who is included on a preseason top 100 prospect list by two or more of Baseball America, ESPN.com or MLB.com is promoted and finishes high in award voting in any year before he is eligible for arbitration. The team would get an amateur draft pick for a Rookie of the Year or a top three in MVP or Cy Young…

However, there is no reason a player called up on May 15, for example, would not have plenty of time to earn the Rookie of the Year. To that point, 2022 NL top Rookie Michael Harris did not make his Atlanta Braves debut until May 28.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Walker followed in Harris’ shoes, both in his timing and potential first-year recognition – assuming he gets off to a good start at Triple-A and then adapts to the big-league game without a major hitch.

Future outlook

2023 is the beginning of the future for Walker. He has generated more excitement than any Cardinals hitting prospect in recent years. For example, most national raters have moved him into their top 10s.

One scout isn’t sure yet, seeing a soft spot in Walker’s armor, close to his heart, that needs to be scrutinized.

“Watch Walker on the inside fastball, and if he is jammed,” the scout said. “It will be a tell as to whether he can be (MVP Aaron) Judge or just another power hitter guy. He is 70% contact and 30% chase, but his contact is on the outer half.”

Jordan Walker (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)

Walker explained his approach.

“I don’t ever try to pull,” Walker said. “Every hitter gets big sometimes and pulls off a little bit, but mainly that is not my approach. I try to hit the fastball the opposite way and react to the slider.

“Most of the balls I pull, it is reaction. I don’t try to pull the ball too much. I am more of a gap-to-gap guy. I feel if I go to right field with the fastball, then I have more time to react to the slider. Try to see all the different pitches and hit everything. Nothing too complicated. I try to keep it pretty simple.

“If I hit the ball hard, I think the metrics will take care of themselves,” he concluded.

A Judge comp seems crazy, but that Walker could even be considered in the same sentence is a reminder of his considerable upside. Though he remains an unfinished product, either way, Walker should be a regular in the Cardinals outfield for the next six years, starting at some point in 2023. It is only a matter of when.

MLB debut: 2023
Rule 5 Eligible: 2024

Exclusively for members of The Cardinal Nation

TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #2 – Masyn Winn

Our 2023 Top 50 series continues

To see the entire list of top Cardinals prospects, grading scales and remaining article schedule, click here. This includes the Top 50 countdown and 12 in-depth, follow-up articles breaking down the list.

50 Days, 50 Nights, 50 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects for 2023

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