photo: Jake Walsh (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)
Opening the top 20 of The Cardinal Nation’s Top 50 prospect countdown for 2023 is a reliever who just needs good health to stake out an MLB job. But can Jake Walsh shake the injury bug? FREE report!
Position: Pitcher
Age: 27 years old
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight – 6’2/215
Acquired: Selected in the 16th round of the 2017 First-Year Player Draft, 484th overall.
Home: Indialantic, Florida
Opened 2022: Memphis Redbirds (Triple-A)
Primary team in 2022: Memphis Redbirds (Triple-A)
Finished 2022: Memphis Redbirds injured list (Triple-A)
Prior Top 50 ranking – 2022 #27, 2019 #44
Click on the above photo to be taken to Walsh’s player page at The Cardinal Nation, with additional biography and history information.
Blake Newberry’s scouting report
Blake’s ranking – no. 24
(current grade/future grade)
| FB | CH | CB | Command | FV |
| 55/60 | 40/45 | 55/60 | 40/45 | 45 |
| IP | G | GS | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% |
| 18 | 16 | 0 | 3.00 | 1.28 | 34.6% | 11.5% |
| HR/9 | K/BB | FIP | xFIP | GB% | LOB% | BABIP |
| 0.5 | 3.0 | 2.86 (AAA)
2.74 (MLB) |
3.73 (AAA)
4.40 (MLB) |
29.3% | 90.4% (AAA)
33.3% (MLB) |
.303 (AAA)
.429 (MLB) |
Jake Walsh was one of the harder pitchers for me to rank. On one hand, he’s been excellent whenever he’s been on the mound but on the other hand, he hasn’t been on the mound very often. He’s already 27 years old but he’s only thrown 41 ⅔ innings (51 ⅔ if we count his AFL stint in 2021) since the end of the 2018 season.
In the end, I decided that 24th was the right spot for him but I do think he has the talent to be ranked higher. I simply want to see him on the mound more before I pull the trigger and put him in my personal top 20.
He does have a very high floor in my mind as a reliever with two plus pitches and a third pitch that flashes at times. His command lags behind and I may actually be a bit optimistic by giving him a 45 but I could also be a bit pessimistic with that too as it may improve once he gets healthy and has consistent mound time. That’s the thing I really don’t know how to grade yet.
I feel confident in my plus grades of his fastball and curveball. His fastball sits 95 but can touch the upper 90s with 2300 rpms of spin. It also has some good life to it. I have it as an above average pitch right now that could become a true plus pitch once he commands it better.
And with this strikeout, Jake Walsh records the save and closes out the Memphis season with a win. Fastball then a curve, an unhittable duo here. Fastball in the 95-ish range pic.twitter.com/csWlEbCSNd
— Kyle Reis, 58% Neanderthal (@kyler416) October 3, 2021
Jake Walsh goes back to the fastball to close out the victory for Memphis. It was an impressive display of power at the plate and in relief tonight for Memphis.
Of note in this at-bat, Jake Walsh was working so quickly that the ump had to grant himself time. True story pic.twitter.com/b6fvOjMl7i
— Kyle Reis, 58% Neanderthal (@kyler416) April 28, 2022
His curveball is my favorite pitch, though, and I was on the fence about making it a potential 65. This is the pitch that he thrives on. It’s a big downer curveball that sits in the low-80s with around 2500 rpms of spin and generates a ton of whiffs. It has sharp downward movement that dives below bats and often makes hitters look uncomfortable.
It looks like this:
Welcome to the Show, Jake Walsh!
First three batters, 2 strikeouts 💪 pic.twitter.com/DtwB64ttXq
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) May 12, 2022
First off, I want you to notice the nasty break on that pitch. I also want you to notice that it froze the hitter despite being left at the top of the zone. Or maybe it was because it was at the top of the zone. Regardless, you can see that he missed his spot as Yadier Molina set up at the bottom of the zone.
This pitch feels indicative of Walsh to me. His stuff is great and he can still be effective when he misses his spot. If he could improve his command, though, he would be even more effective. As I said earlier, simply staying healthy may help a lot with that.
He also throws a changeup that isn’t used much and isn’t consistent enough to be an average pitch yet but it does flash above average at times. He doesn’t need this pitch to be an effective reliever but it could make him that much better if he could bring a full three-pitch arsenal to every hitter.
Mechanically, I don’t have any major concerns with Walsh. He has a smooth, if somewhat high effort delivery. He really explodes with his lower half but he doesn’t get a ton of extension. He does keep the same arm slot, arm speed, and release point with both his fastball and his curveball and that helps both pitches play up.
Walsh is someone I expect to see in St. Louis in 2023. Really the only thing that has held him back is health. If he had been completely healthy the past few years, I would have expected him to already have a full-time role in the Cardinals bullpen. He is not a finished product yet as his command and his changeup still have some room for improvement, but I think he could be a good reliever right now.
Summary: Jake Walsh has two plus pitches and good enough command to be a major league middle relief option in 2023. Health and command are the biggest questions with him but if the former improves, the latter may as well.
Future Value: 45
Role: Low set up
Risk: Low
Brian Walton’s environmental impact report
Brian’s ranking – no. 18
Background
Walsh pitched in relief after signing in 2017, but that was not concerning since he had already thrown in his spring college campaign at Florida Southern. Further, it also helps explain why Walsh did not register on our prospect radar that winter. After all, a successful college pitcher should do well in relief in the Appalachian League – and he did. We named him our top first-year reliever – both at Johnson City and for the entire system.
Walsh pitched well enough in 2018 spring training not just to make the Peoria roster but receive Opening Day honors. Despite throwing a full workload of 139 2/3 innings between the two levels of Class-A ball, Walsh finished strongly. In fact, his 1.38 ERA in August was good enough for him to be named the system-wide Pitcher of the Month by both The Cardinal Nation and the Cardinals organization. Walsh went five or more innings in 24 of 26 appearances in 2018 while logging a 2.24 ERA.
From there, Walsh’s career took a major pause from which he has yet to fully recover. Elbow soreness that surfaced just prior to spring training 2019 led to months of rehab attempts before a UCL tear was diagnosed. Walsh finally had Tommy John surgery that August. He missed almost all of 2019 due to injury and he had to sit out 2020 as well, due to the COVID shutdown.
As the result of his medical situation, age and uncertain role going forward, Walsh fell out of our Top 50 heading into the 2020 and 2021 seasons. He earned his way back on, however.
Upon his return in 2021, Walsh became a dominant reliever and his 1.50 ERA was a very bright spot among a Springfield bullpen corps that registered a collective ERA of 5.95 that was dead last in the Double-A Central League.
For his part, Walsh was consistent from the start and became a trusted finisher, serving as his team’s last pitcher in 10 of his 13 outings. The Florida native was versatile, pitching anywhere from 1/3 of an inning to covering 3 2/3 innings (the latter on just one hit and no walks with five strikeouts). His fastball was clocked up to 98 and touched 100 that summer, according to reports from Hammons Field.
From there, the bumps in the road to St. Louis returned, however. Walsh was out from June until early September 2021, first due to injury, then as part of the COVID wave that swept through the Double-A Cardinals roster that August.
As the season neared its end, Walsh was promoted to Triple-A Memphis. With the Redbirds, he logged four one-inning outings, two clean and two with two runs on his ledger.
As the Triple-A schedule concluded in early October, Walsh directly transitioned to the Arizona Fall League prospect showcase, where he was trusted with late inning work for the Glendale Desert Dogs,
In the desert, Walsh saved four of five opportunities, but logged an ERA of 8.10 in the process. The right-hander allowed far too much traffic on the bases, with 15 hits and six walks in 10 innings. Walsh fanned 10.
Walsh was one of four prospects promoted onto the 40-man roster, with his addition made as the AFL season concluded in November. Given his velocity and potential, it was a decision we predicted here at TCN.
2022 recap
Walsh reported to Jupiter for his first major league camp and pitched well enough to compete for one of the final bullpen spots until the very last cut, when another rookie, Andre Pallante, won out.
Through May 10, Walsh was exceptional for Memphis, working nine games in relief and allowing just one earned run in 11 innings for a 0.82 ERA while converting all six save opportunities. He fanned 16 and walked five. At that point, he received his first call to St. Louis.
After 10 days, Walsh was returned to Memphis with a few dents, but none were fatal. In his first three MLB appearances totaling 2 2/3 innings, he was touched for four earned runs (13.50 ERA) on three hits, four walks and a hit batter against five strikeouts.
On June 5, Walsh was called up again, but for just two days as the Cards wanted an extra reliever during a tight stretch of games vs. the Cubs. That time up, he did not pitch.
Back in Memphis, Walsh was removed from his first return outing due to injury after retiring just one batter. Following that June 8 truncated appearance, he went on Memphis’ injured list. At that point, it was not expected to be serious and it was thought he could return in 2022.
After several weeks, he received a PRP injection to facilitate healing in his right elbow – the same one that required TJS back in 2019. By then it was late June, and the hope was that he could return to pitching in August. That did not transpire, however, with no further news as to what happened.
Walsh finished his 2022 with Memphis with a 1.17 ERA and .196 batting average against while striking out 22 in 15 1/3 innings. He converted all six save opportunities but not as appealing were his seven walks issued.
2023 outlook
At his age, the bloom is off Walsh as a prospect – at least according to most national raters. One of them reached out to me informally to bounce his Cardinals prospect rankings thoughts off me. He left Walsh off his top 30 and questioned my somewhat aggressive no. 18 ranking.
If Walsh’s elbow problems are back to stay, he might prove to be right. On the other hand, if healthy and not too rusty from the long layoff, Walsh should again be in the thick of the spring St. Louis bullpen derby.
Even in his best case, however, his relatively low status on the pen totem pole and his remaining options makes him a prime candidate to become a regular rider on the I-55 shuttle between St. Louis and Memphis. That will change once he tastes some big-league success and secures a more stable role with the Cardinals. That should be in 2023, but that shouldn’t be his final opportunity.
Future outlook
It is important to not lose sight of the fact that the Cardinals did not try to sneak Walsh through waivers in an attempt to reuse his 40-man roster spot on another player. That tells me they still have confidence that Walsh is going to help St. Louis.
While his age may suggest a sense of urgency, that is really not the case. Walsh still has two years of minor league options remaining. That means he would not have remain in the majors full time until spring 2025. Barring another long outage that would limit his career for health reasons, this should give him more than enough time to prove his mettle on a major league mound.
Until/unless he proves otherwise, I think Walsh has a decent MLB relief career ahead.
MLB debut: 2022
Rule 5 Eligible: not applicable (40-man roster member)
Exclusively for members of The Cardinal Nation
Our 2023 Top 50 series continues
To see the entire list of top Cardinals prospects, grading scales and remaining article schedule, click here. This includes the Top 50 countdown and 12 in-depth, follow-up articles breaking down the list.
50 Days, 50 Nights, 50 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects for 2023
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