TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect No. 30 – Andre Granillo

photo: Andre Granillo (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)

The Cardinal Nation’s Top 50 prospect countdown for 2023 reaches no. 30 with the top strikeout thrower in the Cardinals system. Andre Granillo reached Double-A in his first full professional season with more to come. FREE report!

Andre Granillo

Position: Pitcher
Age: 22 years old
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight – 6’4/245
Acquired: Selected in the 14th round of the 2021 First-Year Player Draft, 421st overall

Home: Hemet, California

Opened 2022: Palm Beach Cardinals (Low-A)
Primary team in 2022: Peoria Chiefs (High-A)
Finished 2022: Springfield Cardinals (Double-A)

Prior Top 50 ranking – unranked

Click on the above photo to be taken to Granillo’s player page at The Cardinal Nation, with additional biography and history information.

Link to Granillo’s career stats

Blake Newberry’s scouting report

Blake’s ranking – no. 30

(current grade/future grade)

FB CB SL Command FV
50/60 40/50 45/55 30/40 40
IP G GS ERA WHIP K% BB%
52.1 39 0 4.13 1.41 35.7% 13.0%
HR/9 K/BB FIP xFIP GB% LOB% BABIP
0.86 2.73 3.58 (A)

3.31 (A+)

1.76 (AA)

 3.14 (A)

3.74 (A+)

2.63 (AA)

 32.2% 80.2% (A)

57.4% (A+)

44.4% (AA)

 .286 (A)

.312 (A+)

.675 (AA)

Andre Granillo had one of the best seasons of any player in the system and it came just one year removed from being a 14th round draft selection. Granillo led all pitchers in the system (min. 50 IP) with a 35.7% strikeout rate and 19% swinging strike rate (h/t to the Post-Dispatch).

He’s a bat misser. Plain and simple. He pitched at three different levels this season and missed bats at each one. After such a successful year, he has jumped from outside our rankings to inside the top 30 and being the second highest ranked relief prospect in the system.

Granillo throws four pitches – a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a slider, and a curveball. I know he also threw a changeup in college but I didn’t see it from him this year. He’s more of a fastball/slider/curveball guy now.

His fastball sits around 95 mph and I’ve seen it as high as 97. It gets a good amount of arm side run and certainly has the potential to be a plus pitch if he can learn to control it a little better. He likes to work inside to right-handers sometimes and the combination of velocity and arm side run helps him do that.

Granillo throws two separate breaking balls and sometimes it can be difficult to differentiate between them. His curveball is a true 12-6 offering while his slider gets more sweep but is only thrown about three mph harder. I like the slider better, but I would like to see him throw it harder and sharpen the movement a bit to differentiate the movement and velocity profile. With a fastball that can tick into the upper 90s, he would be well off to develop a pitch that works in the upper 80s.

Even though I said I like the slider better, that’s nothing against his curveball. I think it can be an average pitch at the highest level and that gives him three average to above average pitches to throw at hitters.

This is what his curveball looks like:

And here’s his slider:

One of the things I love about Granillo is that he does a really good job at throwing all three pitches with the same arm speed and from the same arm slot. That gives him enough deception, especially with the two breaking balls, to wreak havoc on a hitter.

Granillo’s weakness is his lack of command. This is not something I’m too worried about, though, to be honest. And I have two reasons for that.

The first is that he gets enough strikeouts to the point where he can be a below average strike thrower and it shouldn’t matter too much. He gets an absurd quantity of whiffs with his ability to mix his high velocity fastball and two good breaking offerings, so when he does throw pitches in the zone, he’s practically unhittable.

The second reason is that a lot has changed for him in a short period of time. He went from college to Double-A in just over a year and he’s still only 22 years old. His stuff may be good enough for him to be a quick riser but he needs some time and consistency to develop better command. Another offseason and some more exposure to Double-A may help with that.

Granillo has the stuff to be a major league reliever but the level of refinement he can reach will determine how soon he gets there and how well he pitches once he’s there. Still, I’m confident enough in his arsenal to give him a medium risk level despite having only one full season as a professional and two innings of Double-A experience to his name.

Overall, he’s a strong arm and it looks like the Cardinals got a steal in the 14th round.

Summary: Granillo is an explosive arm who rose three levels in 2022 and has some of the best pure stuff in the system. He still needs to refine his command but he’s still just 22 years old and has three average to plus pitches.

Future Value: 40
Role: Middle Relief
Risk: Moderate

Brian Walton’s environmental impact report

Brian’s ranking – no. 28

Background

Granillo spent his entire three-year collegiate career in Cal-Riverside’s bullpen, but his 5.98 ERA did not stand out. However, his 12.0 per nine strikeout rate drew notice for the right reason. He also lowered his walk rate from 5.2 BB/9 as a freshman to 3.5 BB/9 in 2021.

A key to Granillo’s selection was his positive experience in multiple summer prospect showcase leagues. In 2020, he logged a 2.29 ERA and 15.6 K/9 in the Northwoods League, and the next summer, he posted a 2.45 ERA with 13.9 K/9 in the Cape Cod League.

Granillo was selected by the Cardinals in the 14th-round of the MLB Draft and from day one, seemed profiled as a reliever. He spent his initial professional summer in Low-A and pitched effectively.

Among first-year Cardinals pitchers, Granillo threw the second most innings (18), had the fourth best ERA (1.50) and a strong strikeout rate (11.5 per nine innings). Of concern was a walk rate (4.5 per nine) that was also second highest among organizational rookies.

All told, it was impressive that a 14th-round pick performed so well while debuting with Single-A Palm Beach.

2022 recap

Granillo got off to a very fast start in his return to Palm Beach to open 2022. In six April appearances covering 10 innings, he fanned 19 against six walks. He allowed just four hits, including two solo home runs for a 1.80 ERA. His batting average against was a system-best .121.

On May 24th, the Cardinals announced 15 player moves across the system, including Granillo’s promotion from Palm Beach to Peoria.

Andre Granillo (Palm Beach Cardinals)

Granillo often worked as the set-up man for Gianluca Dalatri or served as the closer himself. Granillo usually worked a single inning, but the right-hander gave glimpses of multi-inning capabilities, as well.

Striking out 51 in 34 2/3 innings with Peoria, Granillo regularly challenged the zone with his fastball. He compiled a 3.63 ERA with the Chiefs and earned five saves but failed to convert four other opportunities.

While the strikeouts were there all along, Granillo improved his ERA each month from May to June to July to August. His peak was from August 1 through the end of his time with the Chiefs. During that period, he yielded just two earned runs in 14 innings for a 1.29 ERA. He struck out 21 against eight hits and six walks.

On September 9, as the Midwest League schedule ended, the Cardinals promoted several Chiefs to Double-A Springfield, including Granillo. One of his two initial outings was a clunker, during which he surrendered five runs without recording an out. Other than that, he was strong at every level in 2022.

Across the three teams, Granillo was the system’s strikeout king at 14.1 per nine innings, up from 11.5 in 2021. He had quickly earned the trust of his managers as evidenced by his system-leading total of 31 games finished. He tied for fourth in the system with his eight saves.

While it wasn’t a perfect year, Granillo did a lot of things well and was rewarded for them. Remember that 2022 was his first full professional season and he excelled while facing incrementally better competition at the age of 22.

2023 outlook

Almost certainly, Granillo will play an important late-inning role with the 2023 Springfield Cardinals. It may take some time to be successful in the Texas League, a difficult stop for pitchers, but the sooner Granillo can do so, the sooner he can progress to Triple-A.

However, given his rapid ascension in 2022, if he needs all of 2023 to master Double-A, it would not reflect negatively on his career at all. Perhaps at the end of the season, Granillo would be a candidate for the Arizona Fall League.

Future outlook

For the reasons Blake explained, Granillo has the pieces necessary to become a big-league reliever, starting with that impressive 6-foot-4, 245-pound frame. The time it takes for final assembly could be between one and two years more.

The Cardinals have a lot of room to be patient with Granillo if needed, but he may not require it all. He becomes Rule 5 eligible following the 2024 season, but with up to two years more of development, he could already have made his St. Louis debut. If not, perhaps Granillo will reach the majors in early 2025.

MLB debut: 2024
Rule 5 Eligible: 2024

Exclusively for members of The Cardinal Nation

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