TCN 2023 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect No. 15 – Inohan Paniagua

photo: Inohan Paniagua (Ryan Dowd/Blue Leprechaun Photography)

Coming in at no. 15 on The Cardinal Nation’s Top 50 prospect countdown for 2023 is a two-time Pitcher of the Month in 2022 who only reached Peoria late in the season. Inohan Paniagua was left unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft but was not taken. What is next? FREE report!

Inohan Paniagua

Position: Pitcher
Age: 22 years old
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight – 6’1/151
Acquired: International free agent signed December 2017

Home: Bonao, Dominican Republic

Opened 2022: Palm Beach Cardinals (Low-A)
Primary team in 2022: Palm Beach Cardinals (Low-A)
Finished 2022: Peoria Chiefs (High-A)

Prior Top 50 ranking – 2022 #48

Click on the above photo to be taken to Paniagua’s player page at The Cardinal Nation, with additional biography and history information.

Link to Paniagua’s career stats

Blake Newberry’s scouting report

Blake’s ranking – no. 16

(current grade/future grade)

FB CB CH Command FV
40/55 50/60 40/50 40/55 45
IP G GS ERA WHIP K% BB%
137.2 25 25 2.81 1.053 25.8% 6.9%
HR/9 K/BB FIP xFIP GB% LOB% BABIP
0.8 3.7 3.01 (A)

5.60 (A+)

 3.62 (A)

4.78 (A+)

 40.5% 73.5% (A)

76.0% (A+)

 .272 (A)

.257 (A+)

Inohan Paniagua began the year as The Cardinal Nation’s 48th ranked prospect and he will end it in the top 15. That’s one heck of a jump for the 22-year-old.

He is primarily a three-pitch pitcher with a sinker, a curveball, and a changeup, with his curveball the best of the three. He does throw a fourth offering – a four-seamer – but he doesn’t throw it nearly as often as his sinker.

His sinker gets a lot of run, which helps it play up despite sitting in the low-90s. It is effective when he locates the pitch to his glove side. He works it off the outer edge very well to righties and throws a beautiful front door sinker to lefties. Where he struggles is in pitching inside to righties. He simply doesn’t hit that spot very often.

In fact, when the catcher sets up inside, it’s not uncommon to see Panaigua yank the pitch to the outer edge. Even when it’s over the plate, that pitch is often called a ball simply because of how much the catcher needs to move his glove. So, not only does Paniagua not establish his fastball in all parts of the zone, he also costs himself some strikes. This is the biggest weakness of a fastball that I think has the potential to be above average given its large amount of arm side run from a somewhat low arm slot.

It’s a similar story with his curveball. I like the pitch a lot (and I mean, a lot), but he needs to improve his command of it as it can sometimes get away from him and he doesn’t always put it where he should. Specifically, Paniagua is caught between two negatives. He either leaves his curveball up a bit too much where it can be hit or he spikes it into the ground where it doesn’t tempt the hitter.

https://twitter.com/stl_highlights/status/1557580114543755264

I love the downward action of the pitch and I think it can truly be a plus pitch or even better, but he needs to learn how to finish it, especially in two strike pitcher’s counts. The same can be said of his fastball as he sometimes has a tendency to sky it when using it as a strikeout pitch.

The good news is that he struck out over 25% of the hitters he faced despite having room to grow with putting hitters away. His stuff is very good, particularly his sinker and his curveball, and that’s part of the reason why he is ranked so highly despite having some flaws.

His final offering is a changeup that looks to have improved from last year. It sits around 84 mph but seems to have more sink and fade than it did a year ago. It’s still basically a lefty-only pitch, although it does get a good number of whiffs. His next step is to learn how to throw it more to right-handed hitters.

Beyond that, Paniagua doesn’t throw anything else. That is a little bit of a concern for me as he’s really a sinker/curveball only against right-handed hitters and both of those pitches still need some work. He dominated A-ball but the holes in his game make me wonder how he will fare against more advanced competition.

His results weren’t fantastic in his first eight High-A outings and that shouldn’t be held against him as there’s always an adjustment period when moving to a new level. I do think he needs some more refinement before he’s ready for Double-A and it may behoove him to add another pitch to his arsenal.

The good news is that, according to Peoria Chiefs play-by-play commentator Cory Schindler, Paniagua likes to tinker and experiment with pitches. He apparently played with a slider/cutter and a splitter in the spring, and I would love to see him bring one of those offerings into his arsenal to add another look for hitters. He may also want to make sure it’s a weapon he can use against left-handers as he had some heavy platoon splits (.575 OPS against RHBs, .722 OPS against LHBs).

I do think there’s more reliever risk for Paniagua that is probably typical of a top-15 pitching prospect but there’s also a lot of upside and that’s ultimately why I ranked him so high. Part of his upside is due to his projectability.

The right-hander is listed at 6’1” and 151 pounds so he has plenty of room to add weight to his frame and maybe get that velocity to tick into the mid-90s consistently. Then, that pitch could be a plus offering. A mid-90s sinker with a ton of arm side run can be a dangerous pitch. I want to add that I don’t believe Paniagua’s listed height is accurate because he looks smaller than that on video. I could be totally wrong, but he looks about as 6’1” as I do and I am just barely 6 feet tall. I think Paniagua is closer to 5’11” or 6 feet even. Regardless, he still has plenty of frame to which to add weight.

Paniagua is an athletic pitcher with an easy arm action and another 20 or 30 pounds of good weight could really make a difference for him and help his stuff tick higher. It’s also because of his athleticism and arm speed that I am willing to grade his command as potentially above average despite higher than average walk rates throughout his career.

His walk rate was just 5.8% in Palm Beach this year which is a huge development for him, but then it jumped to 9.75 in Peoria. It is fair to wonder if that was due in part to fatigue as he threw almost 100 innings prior to his promotion after never clearing 60 in a single season previously.

Workload is an important factor to consider for young players, and especially young pitchers, as they not only need to develop their skills but also their strength and stamina to be able to sustain the wear and tear of a full baseball season. That’s why I’m not worried at all about some of his struggles in Peoria and I think he will give a better account of himself when he returns there to start the 2023 season.

Because of the issues I mentioned above but also his strengths and his projectability, Paniagua’s future is wide open. I don’t feel confident saying that he is a surefire starter, but I do think he’s a really good arm and I believe in his stuff and his arm talent.

Summary: Inohan Paniagua is a pitcher who really emerged in 2022 and he is a really talented arm with some reliever risk despite being an athletic pitcher with good arm speed, three above average or better offerings, and plenty of projectability.’

Future Value: 45
Role: 4/5 Starter 4.20 FIP/ Low set up
Risk: High

Brian Walton’s environmental impact report

Brian’s ranking – no. 14

Background

Paniagua was a relatively late sign, coming to terms with the Cardinals in December 2017, three months short of his 18th birthday. His signing bonus was $160,000. He debuted in the 2018 Dominican Summer League and crafted a 3.77 ERA over 14 starts. He famed 51 and walked 16 in 57 1/3 innings.

For 2019, Paniagua was promoted to the US. Paniagua essentially made the jump from rookie ball to Class-A between that season and 2021. He did have two rough starts with State College in 2019, but primarily was a rotation member for the CCL Cardinals, where he logged a 5.98 ERA.

Paniagua opened the 2021 season in Palm Beach’s bullpen but earned a rotation spot by late May. Interestingly, he was better starting, with a 3.22 ERA and a .156 batting average against. Out of the pen, his marks were 4.50 and .272, respectively.

Given his solid results with the Beach Birds in 2021, including an overall 3.88 ERA, 3.64 xFIP and an impressive 12.0 strikeouts per nine in 46 1/3 innings, it may be surprising to some that he was not the recipient of an in-season promotion.

That could especially be the case when considering the inflated team ERAs across the system. Specifically, at the next level above, the High-A Peoria Chiefs’ team ERA was over five runs per nine innings in 2021 and his own Palm Beach club was at 5.66, a mark that includes his own far above average results.

Still, there was a reason Paniagua was not promoted to Peoria.

Injury. He missed almost two months of the season, from June 19 to August 17. Likely not fully built up upon his activation from the IL, Paniagua spent the final month of the season working out of the Beach Birds’ bullpen, gradually increasing the length of his outings to a third inning.

During 2021, Paniagua was effective versus both righties and lefties, with a batting average against of .230 and .207, respectively.

His control declined a bit in 2021 but it may be at least partially due to the big step up in competition. In rookie ball, his walks per nine innings were below three. Last season, it rose to 3.69.

Based on his 2.5 earned runs per nine innings improvement from his 6.38 ERA in 2019 short-season ball and over a run improvement over his career ERA prior to 2021, Paniagua was a contender for our 2021 Comeback Pitcher of the Year honors.

He also snared another award – The Cardinal Nation’s 2021 Emerging Pitcher of the Year.

2022 recap

In a surprise (at least to me), Paniagua not only was sent back to Palm Beach to open 2022, he remained there for a majority of the season. This is not what I had expected from a talented, emerging pitcher who would become Rule 5 eligible that fall. I thought he would have been promoted forward aggressively, but that did not happen.

As it was, to finally get to Peoria, it took him earning two consecutive organization Pitcher of the Month Awards, covering June and July. Paniagua was also the Florida State League’s Pitcher of the Month in early July.

In all fairness to the Cardinals, Paniagua was actually moved up on July 26, so he hadn’t quite yet been named that Pitcher of the Month, but with the exception of his initial Peoria outing, his July results were already in the books.

He finished his second season as a Beach Bird with a stellar 2.18 ERA over 17 starts. Paniagua collected 107 strikeouts against 23 free passes issued in 99 FSL frames. His FIP was 3.01 and his BABIP was a bit low at .274.

Inohan Paniagua (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)

Palm Beach manager Gary Kendall looked back at Paniagua’s time with his squad.

“He was great for us here,” Kendall said. “He was Pitcher of the Week twice and now he is helping Peoria. He was a big guy for us.

“Real good breaking ball, very good changeup and he’s got a good heater.  He locates, elevates when he needs to. He’s got a really live arm,” the manager said.

In the six weeks remaining in the Midwest League season, Paniagua made eight starts for Peoria. He had two clunkers, during which he was charged with seven and six runs, respectively, but in the other six outings, he allowed a total of just six runs, all earned.

For the Chiefs, Paniagua had a 4.42 ERA over 38 2/3 innings. He struck out 38 and walked 16. Despite holding MWL batters to a collective .236 average, the eight home runs yielded stood out for the wrong reason. In his three prior seasons, 2018, 2019 and 2021, only nine balls left the park in almost 160 innings. So, this recent long ball phenomena will bear watching in 2023 as do his extreme left-right splits which Blake pointed out.

Paniagua’s 2022 total of 137 2/3 innings pitched ranked fifth-most in the entire system, meeting a target set by Cardinals player development.

“His growth, being able to log innings, because he is a wiry-framed guy, I think they had a plan to beef him up a little bit and be able to maintain over the length of the season,” Kendall said. “He’s been really good.”

Looking back at 2022, Paniagua was named The Cardinal Nation’s Palm Beach Starting Pitcher of the Year, edging out Tink Hence and Trent Baker, among other standouts.

In the fall, the Cardinals gambled by not protecting Paniagua from the Rule 5 Draft, but it paid off when he was not selected by any of the other 29 organizations on December 7. His relative inexperience in the context of being able to immediately contribute at the MLB level was likely the main factor.

2023 outlook

The Cardinals bought another year before having to decide whether or not to protect Paniagua again in the fall of 2023. Given his limited duration in Peoria in 2022, he seems a prime candidate to return to the Chiefs rotation to open 2023.

Considering where Paniagua is in his career, a Springfield promotion by mid-season would be good. Promotions should never be expected, but if Paniagua holds MLB hopes, he needs to become a fast mover – or at least not be a slow one!

Future outlook

Paniagua’s clock is ticking. Following the 2024 season, he could become eligible to walk away as a minor league free agent. Assuming he continues to progress, that shouldn’t be a factor. But if he doesn’t earn his way onto the roster, it means he did not develop as hoped. As with every prospect, no matter how much promise he may hold, this remains a real possibility – until it isn’t.

The Cardinals have many good starting pitching prospects who will be in direct competition with Paniagua over the next two years. His results will be the biggest factor in setting his future role, but a pen shift would not be too surprising later on.

MLB debut: 2025
Rule 5 Eligible: 2022 (not taken)

Exclusively for members of The Cardinal Nation

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Our 2023 Top 50 series continues

To see the entire list of top Cardinals prospects, grading scales and remaining article schedule, click here. This includes the Top 50 countdown and 12 in-depth, follow-up articles breaking down the list.

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