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This thread seems long overdue. From Goold:
The team and chairman Bill DeWitt Jr., according to one industry source, are “sending signals they are out to be a player.” The Cardinals intend to explore Harper’s market and see how they fit, sources confirmed.
Whether or not you think the Cards will land Harper, how many years and how much money will it take? What if he wants an out?
I’d guess something like 12 years and $400 million with two opt outs might do it. Harper would probably require an overpay in St Louis’ market.
There are three pundits at MLBTR’s advertising 14 yrs/$420M for Boras/Harper. I’m guessing that the Cardinals will not go higher than 10 yrs/$300M. Boras will hold out until February trying to get that $400M. So, rather than go through what we went through last offseason with Stanton, I’d just as soon bow out now.
Honestly alot of Card fans will say the off-season will be a failure if they don’t go out and get a start, and there are only 2 on the FA market, Manny and Bryce…
There are three pundits at MLBTR’s advertising 14 yrs/$420M for Boras/Harper.
It seems like MLBTR is fairly consistently off on the high side lately. I can’t see teams locking themselves into 14 years for a 26 year old player ever again, given how badly some of the contracts on guys that are out to age 40 and beyond have turned out in the post steroid era.
Personally, I’d like to see the Cards offer something heavily front loaded with opt outs that almost bait him into taking them.
Years 1-3: $40M/yr
(Opt out)
Years 4-6: $35M/yr
(Opt out)
Years 7-10: $30M/yearThe total value on this would be 10 years and $345M. He’d probably like the idea of being the first to make $40 million in a year. If he puts up a couple MVP worthy seasons in the first three, he’d probably opt out and test the market. If he’s merely good to very good, you still have him three more years where he’s likely to be very good again in years 4-6, then years 7-10 would be an obvious decline phase but by 2026-29 (which would be years 7-10 of his contract), $30 million a year may be decent starter money which wouldn’t be out of line for an aging slugger if he’s still able to put up decent lines.
It’s hard to envision Harper’s ROI will be $30M per year for 10 years. But heck, who knows what the economic landscape in MLB will look like even a few years from now.
Stlcard25 has the right idea with the opt out scenarios. Seems a good way to go for both player and club, but especially for the player. It hedges the risk of the player market going crazy in a few years, as well as his risk of injury or poor performance. Jason Heyward is probably glad he went that route, although his overall deal from the Cardinals was more money. But discounting for time, he was likely better off taking the Cubs offer and getting more cash early. And with his relatively poor seasons in Chicago, no way he would get the deal he has by opting out.
Bowden predicts 10 years, $320 MM. He notes Boras will want to top the highest AAV in history, which is Miguel Cabrera at $31 MM.
Subscriber article:
https://theathletic.com/630722/2018/11/05/bowden-what-the-top-35-mlb-free-agents-are-worth-and-which-teams-they-fit-best/10 years $350M with two opt outs would be my puke point. We don’t need to let this drag out too long before pivoting to Plan B and Plan C.
Brian, you might want to start a Machado thread too. Unlike most people I think the Cardinals will consider going after him. The market for him will be much smaller than Harper. I know he doesn’t hit LH and has some perceived attitude issues but production is production and he provides it. Now he may not have any interest in playing in St. Louis but I suspect we will find out.
Rather than opt outs, I’d rather see something frontloaded but with ridiculously high buy outs. For example
Yr 1 40mm
2 40mm
3 40mm
4 40mm
Team buyout of 20mm
5 35mm
6 35mm
7 35mm
8 35mm
Team buyout of 10mm
9 30mm
10 30mmThat is 4/180 guaranteed. (45mm AAV) 10/340 if the entire contract is completed.
You could make it more interesting by letting Harper take a 20mm haircut in year 4 (20mm salary) for the right to an opt out after year 4 (notifying the team/league prior to the season). The buyout would remain in affect if he didn’t opt out. (That would still be 4/140 (35mm AAV)) You could do something similar in yr 8.
Aren’t most buyouts player options, not team ones, other than for the final year?
Are there any examples of such a contract as CC outlines? I am skeptical Boras would go for it, but maybe if there is some kind of precedent…
Lot’s of examples of team option buyouts. I don’t think the lack of precedent would stop Boras. In fact it might incentivize him (who has ever gotten $45mm guaranteed AAV for their client!) But my real objective was to propose something fair for both sides. If Boras/Harper wouldn’t go for something like this I might question their confidence in Harper’s long term production/health.
Like I said, I am familiar with team option buyouts for the final year of a contract. This is very different, though. Please direct me to an example in which a TEAM can exit a long deal after just a few years. That structure is unfamiliar to me with a team being in control, rather than the player (such as Heyward), but maybe I missed some. Thanks in advance.
P.S. The reason Boras/Harper won’t go for this kind of deal is that they won’t have to. Another team will give them a traditional contract offer without the player having to assume significant risk. I do get why it would be great for the Cardinals, though. If only they didn’t have to compete with other teams.
You are correct Brian. The opt out clauses in the middle of contracts are always player opt outs. The teams are stuck with full price if the player so chooses.
I believe I have seen a couple of team options on the final two years of the contract but nothing of this magnitude. But that is really immaterial to me. We never saw a player opt out until we saw one.
Not so sure this is a bad deal for Harper. His avg bWAR the last 3 years is just 2.5. What would he get if it were coming off an avg of 5.5? I am sure Boras will try to sell things as Harper will be cheap in the last few years relative to revenues. If he is right, Harper produces close to what you are paying him to produce, then why would he worry about a buyout?
Maybe you do it differently. Keep a buyout or two in there but let the team nullify the buyout with a bonus payment. I think the more creative one is the easier it is to find a win-win scenario (Even if it hasn’t been done before)
Precedence shouldn’t be considered immaterial, because it isn’t. Player buyouts were concessions granted by teams looking to give a free agent more. On the other hand, players and agents do not give up significant precedent-setting ground unless they are forced to – having no choice. Harper is the exact opposite of being backed into a corner. He is the youngest premium free agent ever to hit the open market. If anyone demands early outs, it will be Boras.
Per the Washington Post:
“The Washington Nationals offered Bryce Harper a long-term deal on the last day of the final homestand of the 2018 season. He did not take it.”
The aggressive offer to Bryce Harper would have paid him about $30 million a year in the long-term proposal by the #Nats as the #Phillies, #SFGiants and #STLCards now expected to be in the mix.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) November 6, 2018
According to CBS Sports…https://www.mlb.com/cardinals/news/10-reasons-cardinals-need-bryce-harper/c-300349276
I read this earlier on MLB.com. Leitch makes some compelling reasons to get Harper. Harper would fill a numbers of needs for the Cards. A powerful left handed hitter, a big-name star and face for the team that lacks one. He also adds some speed 13/16 stolen bases.
will his temperament be a good fit for the Cards? Won’t know until he’s actually here. I was never a big Harper fan but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt should he show up at spring training.
Signing Harper will immediately effect others… JMartinez, Fowler and O’Neill, plus some minor league OFs that are close to MLB ball. Thomas#12 – Arozarena#13 – AGarcia#16 not to mention the advancing Carlson#11.
Undoubtedly, the FO will expect Harper to be around for a number of years.
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