2023 StL Game #85: Tuesday, July 4 at Marlins

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  • #226191
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    12:10 p.m.
    RHP Adam Wainwright (3-3, 7.45) vs, LHP Jesús Luzardo (6-5, 3.53)
    BSM // MLB Network // KMOX
    (and Bally Sports South/Southwest Extra)

    #226440
    ZTR
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    Sorry but Wainwright does not need to be starting games any longer.

    #226460
    blingboy
    Participant

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    ZTR, Who would you want starting instead of Wainwright?

    As far as guys who are here, Matz is the only alternative to Wainwright. I am completely indifferent as to which of them to go with. It doesn’t matter enough to matter. So why not let Wainwright have another chance to put a win in the books. It adds an element of interest at least. 40 man starters in Memphis are Hudson and Thompson. No reason to go with either of them.

    There is a slot open on the 40 man, so McGreevy could be tried. He’s been doing OK, but he’s hittable and not much swing and miss. In other words, nothing to be excited about. Next year will be soon enough IMO.

    The bottom line is, we are likely to see a defacto pen game with Wainwright starting it off. I hope he does OK and can keep us in it for a while, then hand it off. But it would take good management by Ollie to pull that off, so, you know. Obviously, there is the chance we will be in a hole early.

    #226462
    blingboy
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    I think the FO intends to give Wainwright every possible chance to win 200 games, and obviously it would be unsightly if the last couple had to be achieved as a reliever rather than as a starter. But as a starter he needs to go 5 innings and keep us in it, so it might be that that isn’t likely or even possible.

    Maybe have Matz start it off and go a few, then have Wainwright come in and go a few. If that were done from here until the end, Waino might get in the way of a couple wins.

    Lets see what happens today, and then think about it some more.

    #226468
    blingboy
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    As to Baker, he sure is a big lump of man out there. Coming around to score yesterday, I thought he ran suprisingly well for his body type, and he was giving it all he had. I like the looks of him. He’s proven at AAA that he can put the barrel on a ball. Obviously, as noted yesterday, he needs to acclimate to MLB level pitching, but having seen Walker making good progress in that area, maybe Baker could do the same with some regular reps. Why not? I wouldn’t mind seeing how he moves and scoops playing 1B a little. Its not like playing him some is going to ruin our chances.

    Switching gears, it sure seems like Mercado must have rubbed some people the wrong way. Ollie probably, but not exclusively. He was glued to the bench and then offed, evidently without an immediate pressing need for the roster slot, and without concern for losing him. His on field performance was not terrible or anything. Shades of Mottergate, sort of, as far as unusual handling of a guy and his roster status.

    #226469
    ZTR
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    As to who to start instead of Wainwright? Hudson or Matz (ugh…). Maybe a Lester or Happ or Leblanc laying around on the couch or in an independent league?

    Is there really nobody at AAA we could give a start to? Just the one and see if some magic happens?

    Woodford and Verhagen going down reduced the bullpen bodies for sure. Now we have Romero and some other dude back up, lol.

    On Baker, yeah if I’m catching and he’s coming down the 3rd base line there is no way I’m blocking the plate.

    #226470
    bccran
    Participant

    Woodford.

    #226472
    ZTR
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    Woodford is on the Injured list.

    #226477
    1toughdominican
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    A catcher can always avoid a collision with a guy like Luckenbacker or anyone else by simply claiming he’s not allowed to block HP anymore. That way, his courage and determination to prevent a run from scoring won’t be called into question…In 2014 the MLB bosses all but eliminated what was once possibly the most exciting play in baseball due to an injury to a SF Giants catcher. Fosse must have felt a little slighted by the fact that the silly rule wasn’t implemented until 44 years after the dust and smoke had settled from the ’70 AS game. And I wonder what “Dutch” would think? At any rate, they call it hardball for a reason. Pretty soon they’ll limit how hard a pitcher can throw a baseball or require hitters to cut down on the violent strength they put on their rips. Thay don’t want that horse hide to hurt any cupcakes…

    #226478
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    bling said:

    Switching gears, it sure seems like Mercado must have rubbed some people the wrong way. Ollie probably, but not exclusively. He was glued to the bench and then offed, evidently without an immediate pressing need for the roster slot, and without concern for losing him. His on field performance was not terrible or anything. Shades of Mottergate, sort of, as far as unusual handling of a guy and his roster status.

    Unless something happened recently, that is not the case at all. This spring, Oli raved about Mercado, who he knew from the minors. No offense to Mercado, but the fifth outfielder is never much of a contributor. I’d rather keep Burly active in hopes he can give them a big hit off the bench. And my guess is that Mercado will not be claimed off waivers. He can then decide whether or not to report to Memphis. Like Motter, if he wants to keep playing, he will stay around.

    The reason Motter’s case was unusual is that they re-added him so quickly. Mercado’s case is not unusual at all for a guy who has no options remaining. Same thing happened with Tres Barrera recently. It is business as usual.

    #226484
    1toughdominican
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    The Cardinals will take the field today at 10.5 back in the NLC which is their ’23 season nadir to date. At 14 below sea level, they’re still 3 losses shy of burrowing under 16 games below .500 which was the seasonal abyss they subjected themselves to after losing their 7th game in a row on June 16th. I’m reminded of a line from a little ditty provided by the Mothers of Invention…”The torture never stops.”

    #226485
    PugsleyAddams
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    This game should be different for Waino than his other starts this season. He’ll will himself into pitching a halfway decent ballgame, which still may or may not be good enough for victory. I see him going 6 innings strong, yielding 2 runs on 6 hits.

    #226489
    bicyclemike
    Moderator

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    Looking at the Pythagorean (expected record based on runs scored versus runs allowed), we are 5 games under the expected record, and Miami a whopping 8 games over.

    Some of that is randomness, winning big and losing close, or vice versa. Some of it is strategic decisions that don’t work out (lower than expected record), or do work out (better than expected record).

    While there is no definitive proof of a manager’s ability in the pythag mark, there is some evidence that Skippy’s decisions have worked well and Ollie’s have not. We are looking at two clubs that should have about the same record if everything were equally distributed. Last night was a great example of how the season is going for each of these clubs.

    If Miami takes three of four here, you would think the clock will have ticked midnight on our manager’s tenure. But as we have said a few times, management will probably let the season play out and make a decision in October as to whether he is the man to keep running the club in the dugout.

    #226490
    blingboy
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    On Baker, yeah if I’m catching and he’s coming down the 3rd base line there is no way I’m blocking the plate.

    Right. And I bet Pop Warner had backed up a little as he windmilled the big guy around third. But as it happened, Baker made a good turn and crossed the plate in good order. Nicely done, I thought.

    #226491
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    I like that Kiz is catching and Willson is at DH.

    #226493
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Adam already has 2 wins as a reliever. He could be used in the vulture role out of the pen, trying to get to 200 wins, if Mo acquires a SP. Liberatore could stay in the rotation, which is an investment in 2024.

    #226494
    1toughdominican
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    Well, I wasn’t aware of it, but it’s good to know that the Cardinal field manager raved about Mercado during the spring. It makes perfect sense that he did so, and I’d be curious to know if he also raved about Motter. If he did, that also makes sense in the context that it provides an illustration of the manner in which he bases his judgements and keen eye for talent. “He knew him from the minors”…I’ll be darned. If I had known all this during the spring, I would have forseen the Cardinals being firmly entrenched in last place on Independence Day. Let’s all have a rave party!

    #226495
    blingboy
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    .

    “He knew him from the minors”

    Yeah. Maybe that’s why he used everything but Mercado and the kitchen sink out there. Infielders, no glove guys. I don’t dispute what BW said above, but come on.

    As to raving about him in ST, Ollie raves about everybody not named O’Neill. We get killed by 10 runs, loved that effort, never gives up, etc.

    #226496
    Ratsbuddy
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    The Reds are at it again. They lead the Nationals 6-1 in the 4th at RFK Stadium in the nation’s capital.

    Cubs and Brewers later today from County Stadium in Milwaukee.

    Pirates lose at Dodger Stadium last night 5-2.

    Time is ticking away on the 2023 season for St. Louis……….

    #226497
    blingboy
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    1. Tommy Edman (S) 2B
    2. Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B
    3. Nolan Arenado (R) 3B
    4. Willson Contreras (R) DH
    5. Jordan Walker (R) LF
    6. Paul DeJong (R) SS
    7. Dylan Carlson (S) RF
    8. Andrew Knizner (R) C
    9. Lars Nootbaar (L) CF

    #226498
    PugsleyAddams
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    Exactly right, Bling. What this club(other than maybe Waino and Goldy) needs right now is a big ole’ fashioned kick in the keester and not praise. All of us from all walks of life need a good kick in the keester every now and then. With my dear wifey having left me high and dry, I don’t know who in heck will be kicking mine, but I know I need it every now and then.

    #226500
    1toughdominican
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    BikeMike…Despite the fact that I look at them from time to time, it’s my belief that those expected W/L records are entirely random and meaningless and serve no purpose other than simple amusement. However, it’s also my firm belief that W/L records in one run games and extra innings are an invaluable measure of not only a teams overall character, but also the ability of a manager to place that team in the best position to win games. I’ll also say that my response to anyone who claims that a manager doesn’t have a very substantial influence on a team’s W/L record is to simply say, “Stengel, Weaver, LaRussa, Cox, Herzog, Bochy… And yeah, that thing that they term Pythagorean? I thought it was some sort of dinosaur or anthropod when I first heard it…

    #226501
    1toughdominican
    Participant

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    I’m sure he did know him from the minors, Bling. They probably sat around and played checkers at the local barbershop. And yeah, he certainly raves about a lot of things. He also tells us a lot of things…One of his best raves was, “I guarantee it’ll help this team in September, I’ll tell you that”…

    #226502
    1toughdominican
    Participant

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    Yeah, they’ll do that, Pugs. Myself and a good friend were once trying to cheer up another good friend who had recently split with his wife. He said he was doing okay, but got a little lonesome from time to time. My buddy suggested that to counteract any loneliness that he should put up a sign in his front yard that said, “FREE BEER!”

    #226503
    1toughdominican
    Participant

    Free

    I’ve only seen Arraez take 5 PA’s now, which is enough for me to conclude that dogs bark, water’s wet, and Arraez can hit…

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