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If the Birds move Gray, does that leave a rotation of Mikolas and four ?????s. Asking for a friend!LOL.
I viewed the buyout on all those 3 as the most realistic option if they indeed want to shed some payroll. I don’t see teams lining up to take Mikolas, Arenado and Matz unless we pay down a good portion of salary. They likely return. I would say the trade candidates are Gorman, Helsley and either Herrera or Contreras.
We should probably start by asking how many min wage guys do we have for the rotation? Pallante and McGreevy. Who else on opening day? If none others, then they need to keep 3 contract guys. Cover injuries from the farm. If they have another, then only keep two. Etc.
We should probably start by asking how many min wage guys do we have for the rotation? Pallante and McGreevy. Who else on opening day? If none others, then they need to keep 3 contract guys. Cover injuries from the farm. If they have another, then only keep two. Etc.
Right now the rotation looks like:
Gray
Fedde
Mikolas
Pallante
McGreevyMatz is also around. If they trade Gray or Mikolas, I’d imagine Matz or Graceffo would be the fill in.
I fully expect to see Gray, Fedde, Helsley, Arenado traded. I know its a lot to do over the winter, but I think it will happen. I think Gray will take some time with the free agent market to start setting what the price of SP is going to be and who will to take the contract of Gray. Contreras is also very likely, but I also don’t know if they can make all that happen in 1 off season and find someone financially who will take on his contract. I know Donovan has been mentioned a lot. I see the logic behind it when trying to rebuild a farm system, but he’s still young enough, controllable, and could be valuable to the team in 2027 when looking to be competitive again, but also if all works the way they want it then Wetherholt could be the 2B by then and maybe Donovan’s value could be more to someone else now. I just know I’d have to have an absolute HAUL for me to move him and would well behind my priority list of moving the others. With all that said I expect the rotation to probably be Mikolas, Matz, Pallante, McGreevy, Liberatore to start the season. With the hope Mikolas and Matz build up enough value they can be traded at the deadline, and the rotation the 2nd half of the season could be VERY different based on Liberatore performance (moved back to the pen?), development of the AAA guys, whos traded for. Trading Mikolas or Matz now makes no sense to me. Their value, if they are able to stay healthy and pitch OK, will be drastically higher, but still not much, at the deadline to needy teams and their expiring contracts.
These declined options are the easy in-house decisions which require no trade partner.
Arenado, Mikolas, Gray and Contreras all have NTC’s.
Matz, Fedde and Helsley do not have no trade clauses.
The Cards have the #2, 3, 10, 11, 12, 20 and 21 trade chips in this article. Seems like a lot.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/top-35-trade-candidates-mlb-offseason.html
It’s no surprise that the Cardinals will part with LL, but in my view, he may have been the only player who provided any sort of fun entertainment on a ’24 Redbird edition that was otherwise incredibly mundane and boring. The Cardinal manager occasionally contributed some circus clown type of entertainment, but Lynn was the only baseball player on last season’s team that provided me with some genuinely enjoyable moments. That’s a bit of a shame.
But, but, but Lynn and Gibson said they wanted to be here and be Cardinals! How rude to not keep them….
They can blame the agency the representative them for not locking in a 2 years deal after both had a poor 2023.
Seems like this 2 exactly what Bowtie was hinting at by getting younger and cutting payroll. I’m sure at least 1-2 more players will be leaving via trade.
LL hasn’t signed elsewhere Dom!
A farewell tour in 25′ is in order!So two starters averaging about 26 GS and 145 IP last season have become FA’s.
So two starters averaging about 26 GS and 145 IP last season have become FA’s.
Does that really matter? I view that as having hurt the team long term actually. We stuck with so many vets in the rotation making big bucks that we couldn’t give guys like McGreevy more chances. At some point, you have to at least hand over a spot or 2 to the young guys on cheap contracts.
Atm, both Gibson & LL had IP incentives for last season. The FO gave them both the opportunity to reach those incentives.
Arenado, Contraras, Goldschmidt, Carpenter, Mikolas, Matz, Gray, Fede, Hellsey must all be gone one way or another. I you are going to start a youth movement…then do it.
Arenado, Mikolas, Gray and Contreras all have NTC’s.
Yes, but with the state of the team and the youth movement then I think they would have no problem getting them to waive them.
Arenado ($27/$22/$15):
-Mets – If they lose Alonso in FA and Vientos moves to 1B then a 3B would be needed.
-Dodgers – as I have mentioned they have Taylor ($17) and Braiser ($4.5) that would make sense even for a rebuilding Cardinals team to take on to off-set $21.5 million of the contract and up the return they can get. He’s from that area, Muncy could move to more of a UT guy for them or traded himself. Get 2 of Bobby Miller, Maddux Bruns, Patrick Copen, Payton Martin.
-Arizona – Probably less of a fit, but if Suarez option is declined then possible.
-Seattle – They are searching for offense and 3B has been a hole.
-Houston – Probably not a fit as they have said they are going to have to “get creative with payroll”, but Bregman could leave via free agency opening 3B, maybe a 3 team trade and Houston gets Muncy?
-Yankees – 3B has been a hole, Torres is a FA, Chisolm could move to 2B or even CF or LF. If they re-sign Soto they many not want to take on Arenado contract too, but they are linked to being very interested in Bregman.Contreras ($18/$18/$18.5/$17.5 option w/ $5 buyout)
– Seattle – again they are searching for offense. May be a DH or 1B there that is available to catch too.
– Houston – Maybe? They have Y. Diaz, but hes also played some 1B, Contreras could play 1B there too. Again money is going to be an issue with them but could see a fit.
– Cleveland – Money again will be the issue, but a need for C is there.
– Detroit – looking for a RH bat, would probably catch there but could be 1B or DH too. Torkelson could be an intriguing return if they wanted to give up on him. I also like Jaden Hamm with them, but I don’t know that they give up their #7 prospect without the Cardinals covering a significant amount of the contract.
– Rays – The money probably doesn’t make any sense here, but there is a need for catcher. If they were able to off load B. Lowe and Y. Diaz in other trades it might work. I think brother William Contreras probably makes more sense to them if Milwaukee goes that route.
– Yankees – Basically what I said about Arenado, Yankees off season could go a lot of different ways and Contreras could be a Catcher or 1B option. If they aren’t able to bring Soto back they are going to be looking for many ways to lengthen a line-up that was mostly just Soto and Judge anyway.Gray ($25/$35/$30 option with $5 buyout)
This one is very complicated with the back loaded contract and I think will depend a LOT on how the FA market is set for SP and who goes where.
– Atlanta – I think is absolutely the most logical fit to me, but its going to depend a lot on money and what Fried does and Morton is also a FA.
– Mets- Obvious need for SP, multiple SP free agents. Don’t know if he’d want to go back to New York.
– Cubs – Do they trade in division? But there is a need for SP.
– Cincinnati – see Cubs
– Padres – Maybe, they have some SP but Musgrove is out for 2025 and Cease is a FA after 2025. How much money do they have left?
– Diamondbacks – Will probably be in on FA SP, if they miss could be an option but the money could be a hang up.
– Texas – Could use a SP but money will be an issue.
– Houston – See Texas
– Detroit – I don’t know that he waives to go there, but they could use more SP.
– Boston – Need more SP, would he waive to go back to the north east?
– Baltimore – Need for SP, they will be trying to bring Burnes back, if he goes elsewhere could definitely be in.
– Yankees – Need for SP, hes been with the Yankees before and struggled would he want to go back?Mikolas ($18.5)
Matz ($12.5)
I think their best bet is to hold onto them for now. They can be a mentor to the young guys and veteran leadership to try to be an “overachieving team playing with house money”. If it doesn’t work out that way then at the deadline there is always a need for SP and look to move them then. If Matz can prove healthy then should be pretty easy to move being LH, can relieve too, reasonable salary. Mikolas will have to agree to any trade and getting that to happen may be easier at the deadline. If they do try to move them now then basically any team listed for Gray can make sense with Atlanta, Mets being most likely fits and with them I’d add Philadelphia, San Francisco, Minnesota, Kansas City, Cleveland all as reasonable fits too.Fedde ($7.5)
Not trading him when trying to load the system would be dumb. I know he wasn’t what a lot of people expected him to be when they traded for him, but he was still good. With his reasonable salary any team looking to contend is a very reasonable option. I’ve said before I think Kansas City as a Wacha replacement is a very natural fit and I’d go after Blake Wolters, Tyler Gentry, and another low level pitcher, maybe Hunter Owen. Devin Mann has always intrigued me too. He’s 28 never made the big leagues and would have to be added to the 40 man, but could provide them with more RH utility depth.Helsley (final arbitration year, projected at $6.9)
Again not trading him would not be in their best interest. Basically an team looking to content will have interest. I think Texas and Yankees are natural fits. Mitch Bratt, Izack Tiger, and Brock Porter are all intriguing lower level arms and Cardinals could get more than just those 3 likely. Yankees may not have the prospects the Cardinals are looking for.Donovan (arb. projected at $3.6)
I wouldn’t, but I guess it’s a possibility. His trade value is high and I’d have to get a haul to consider it.Goldschmidt made $26 million last year
Gibson made $12 million….they have to pay him $1 million on the opt out
Lynn made $10 million….they have to pay him $1 million on opt out
Middleton made $5million….they have to pay him $1 million on opt out
Crawford made $2 million
Kittredge made $2.6 million
Gallegos made 5.7 millionThey have to pay Gray, if he is here, an extra $15 million and Fede an extra $5 million roughly
Just that is around $43 million they have already cut to payroll for 2025 w/o any new signings
They will have some arbitration increases, but they also save $3 million with Arenado’s deal as his salary goes down from $24 million to $21 million
If they were actually to trade Grey and Arenado that would be another $46 million they would have slashed, with a payroll of probably around $100 million for 2025….there is no way they are putting $75 million into player development next year (total payroll last year was $175 Million). That to me would reek of a total cash grab by ownership.
Taking a return for Helsley and Fedde seems easiest.
If they move Arenado & Contreras, the remaining position players account for about 15mil total! But, they are free of both the long term contracts.
Mikolas and Matz as FA’s-to-be are an attrition issue.
I’d hate to see them undo the Sonny Gray signing.
there is no way they are putting $75 million into player development next year (total payroll last year was $175 Million). That to me would reek of a total cash grab by ownership.
I think the investment is going to be very significant. The “pitching labs” some of these teams have developed are huge investments with facilities and staff. I expect they can take on some expiring contracts for 2025 and then those are gone along with Mo, other coaching staff, front office staff, probably some of these guys that have be re-assigned (like Joe McEwing and Wilie McGee) and they get out from under a lot of money there too. 2026 Bloom takes over full control and have a reloaded minor league system and a very minimal salary commitment and can get to building to compete. It’s not about a 2025 “cash grab”, its about a 2025 re-set and getting out from under these contracts before they can’t and give some of the young guys a chance to take control of their spot and they are what they are building around. Like Herrera or Pages with Crooks coming. SP with Liberatore, McGreevy, Pallante, Graceffo and so on. Can Gorman prove hes a major league player? and so on. Ownership is saying they have no money and want to be make the organization more cost efficient. I think the MLB salary around $100 million for 2025 could be very likely and as they get out from the remaining contracts after 2025 the 2026 salaries could be about the same if not a little lower. Then 2027 hopefully the minor league system is better and the guys traded for are major league ready and they are ready to compete again.
Pitching Lab can’t see it more than $20 million if that.
Vanderbilt built a state of the art one in 2017 for $12 million, Wake Forest built there’s in 2019 for the same amount….with inflation and major league upgrades that could reach $20 million I guess. The other question are they not going to finance it or are they actually going to pony up all the cost up front.
Mo keeps insinuating some of the vets want to stay. Is that plural? Here’s one.
Just some thoughts…..
I think that Helsley will be extended, not traded. The thought of going into the 9th inning with a lead but nothing even close to a reliable closer in the bullpen is disheartening, to say the least. Maybe people are thinking of Hence as our closer of the future, and he very well might be. But he’s likely 3 or 4 years away from being able to actually do it.
I’m not saying that Matz’ injuries weren’t legitimate. But the fact that he is entering a walk year makes me think he’ll stay off of the IL for most, if not all, of the year. Things just seem to work out that way at times.
I’m fine with trading Arenado. He’s not the player he was for most of his career. I hope he stays healthy and is able to one day enjoy the fortune that he has accumulated. I think there’s a possibility that Wetherholt ultimately winds
up at third base because there doesn’t seem to be a prospect anywhere near capable of taking it on. I think Donovan would be as good, offensively, at third base as Arenado now is, and maybe as good, defensively, also.We appear to have a surplus of second baseman. I don’t like Gorman’s defense, so I’d be okay with trading him although the consequences would certainly be having to watch him OPSing .900+ for another team.
From the SI article that KCB linked:
Matz has one year left on a four-year, $44 million deal. Although things haven’t gone exactly as planned, the fact that he clearly wants to stay in St. Louis should at least give fans some hope.
Why in the world should that give Cardinal fans hope? Hasn’t gone exactly as planned?
The guy who wrote that article is delusional.
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