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Or they play like we thought they would as prospects and surprise everyone, like Detroit, and make the playoffs. But 2025 isn’t going to be about winning anyway. It’s a chance to develop seeing who fits going forward to build around. Get out from these contracts after 2025 and start building an efficient and balanced roster with minor league depth.
Helsley is a major piece to a contender for 7 to 8mil, and his FA-to-be status may also be a best case for another club.
Willson and Gray can bring impact field value too, but the backloading of both their FA market value contracts, will limit their returns. Could send cash against for an improved return.
Good read Cards667.
Good stuff 667. You are all over it. I doubt if they all get moved because that would be a lot of work for Mo to accomplish in one winter. I think all of the free agents go and the options are declined and I think Helsley goes. Probably one of Nado, Willson, or Gray. It would be malpractice for the Cardinals not to tade Helsley. He has more value to them as a trade chip than he does as a closer on a rebuilding team.
For those worried about the 2025 lineup there is a rumor that the Cardinals held a press conference a couple of weeks ago where they basically said they were doing a reset or a rebuild and would not be trying to field their best roster. If true I wouldn’t worry about the lineup because they are not going to be trying to win in 2025. It sounds like it is time to accept it.
they are not going to be trying to win in 2025
As a fan, I feel like a crash test dummy heading into 2025. In 2023 they were trying and they only won 71. What is this going to be like?
Assuming they don’t move Gray, I think they have at least a good of chance of winning the division as they did coming into this season. Other than possibly 3B and C, I think they’ll be better on offense at every position. Defense should be similar with some pluses and minuses around the diamond. Starting pitching should probably be better if Gray stays. Adding Fedde and Pallante from the opening ups the pitching. And McGreevey as the 5th or 6th starter should also be an improvement. The bullpen will most likely be worse. Even if Helsley stays, it’s doubtful that he’s near perfect again. Romero was also lights out early and that probably isn’t reality. And if Kittredge goes, that’s a key cog to lose.
All they have said for certain is the budget is going down. That might just mean they aren’t going to spend anything on free agents (or very very little) and that they will decline the team options (or maybe still pickup Gibson). That lowers the budget. That might not be the best long-term strategy, but it does keep the current roster having about the same number of wins plus or minus a few.
The Cardinals will try to win in 2025. People act like the Cardinals are terrible which they are not. They had a winning season in 2024.
It depends on how much pitching they send packing
We are talking about mid 30s late career downslope pitchers. They are highly unlikely to do as well again next year. They would need to find updated versions of Lynn and Gibson, and hope to get as lucky with it. They would need to hope Mikolas’s slide miraculously levels off. They would have to hope 35 year old Gray equals 34 year old Gray. Kittredge will be 35 also. Mo has them backed into a corner.
The Cardinals didn’t have a terrible record last year, but they had a fortunate record and were terribly boring. Why would we think that when they tell us they aren’t going to try to win they would when they tell us they are they don’t?
Who said they aren’t going to try to win? I’m sure the players are going to try to win. I’m sure the Manager is going to try to win. All that was said was that mlb payroll would go down.
They might trade Gray. They might trade Arenado. They might trade Contreras. They might trade from their core. We don’t know. I suspect they will look for trades that make them better tomorrow than today but if they don’t find what they are looking for, then they will run it back and see. They would just be running it back without Goldschmidt (who was near terrible especially when you consider his hitting with runners in scoring position), Carpenter (who was entirely useless on the field), Crawford (who didn’t play), Lynn (who was mediocre), maybe Gibson (who was a smidgeon better than Mikolas), and Kittredge (who was pretty good). Essentially almost all the old guys are gone. Replacing them are Fedde, Pallante, probably Saggese, probably McGreevey, and a couple question marks. The young core turns a year older which typically means better. Arenado, Gray, and Mikolas turn a year older which means probably worse. Overall though, running it back looks promising enough to be competitive. I doubt that’s a World Series team or anything like that. But it’s probably better than the team from 2024.
You nailed it, KCB. The ’24 edition was the very illustration of mundane and wearisome baseball. In my view the few highlights of the season were provided when Lance Lynn would take his turn in the rotation. At least the Bavarian Bismark Beast was entertaining.
I guess we really need to wait and see what the roster looks like on OD 2025. Until than we are arguing semantics.
I agree we have to wait and see. Personally, I think the rotation will have fewer old guys. The lineup, I don’t know. The offense was terrible and I don’t know of any budding RBI powerhouse guys ready to emerge from the minors. That aspect seems bleak. We can hope Walker and Gorman come on, but we all know how they looked trying to hit ML pitching.
With what looks like will be a younger team next year, I want to see them be very aggressive. Start the runners a lot, steal, hit and run, make the defense have to make a play. You will run into a few outs along the way, but you will also force mistakes and create scoring opportunities.
You will also create a culture of sort of “combined we are better than the sum of our parts” if you will. Basically a latter day take on “Whitey ball”.
If they want to lower salary and still be competitive, maybe a good path to follow is –
Let Goldy go – saves $26 million
Let Gibson go – saves $12 million
Let Lynn go – saves $10 million
Let Carpenter go
Trade Mikolas and pay roughly 1/2 – saves $9 millionSo that’s lowering payroll by $57 million. There are 6 players who are arbitration eligible, so that $57 million will go down some. Doesn’t bring in any new players that might help, but it keeps higher priced guys like Arenado, Contreras, Gray, Fedde, Matz, and Helsley. Still gives us a pretty decent team in 2025. Especially if Walker continues to step it up and Arenado bounces back some.
Next years team has the potential to be a whole lot more exiting. They just probably won’t win as many games. And don’t get confused with the difference between players and coaches trying to win games and the front office trying to put a team on the field that will win games.
It’s not that they aren’t trying to win, players and coaches are trying to win all the time, or that they are purposely “tanking”. They have bloated contracts, ownership saying they have no money, and aren’t winning with an aging roster. They are VERY cost ineffective. It’s still a business and if you were running a business and spending a lot of money and not getting results something has to change. It’s about making them cost effective and building a minor league system back to being relied upon.
I would be very reluctant to send money with any of the guys traded. Gray would demand close to the contract he’s got anyway on the market, they should be able to find takers. Especially as the winter goes on and teams missing on signing Burnes or Flaherty and still trying to land a SP. The return isn’t going to be astronomical because of the contract. But why I target A-AA players. The closer they are to being “major league ready” the more value. Get some lower level tools guys and hope it works out for the best. But the main goal is reloading the system and getting the payroll down. With Arenado and Contreras they are likely going to have to take on a bad contract or 2 from the other team to off set some money. But if they are expiring after 2025 then I have no problem with it. They clear out those contracts along with Matz and Mikolas and Mo and probably more front office and coaching contracts and 2026 is a fresh start for Bloom with a very minimal salary commitment a stronger minor league system and keep building so that hopefully in 2027 they know who they are for sure and have significant pieces in place and they are looking to compete again. They have ZERO playoff wins with Arenado and Goldschmidt. What’s the difference between 83 wins and 65 wins? Both miss the playoffs and no reson to pay these bloated contracts. It’s past time for a re-set and they are actually in a pretty good place it could be a quick one. Not 5-6 years like the Astros and Cubs did. The Cubs were better than them this year and have a much stronger upper minor league system right now. The Brewers won the division, will lose Adames may have to trade Williams and maybe William Contreras to keep their money down, but again still have young controllable core and a stronger upper minor league system than the Cardinals right now. It’s not ideal as a fan, I get it, but if they want to be legit yearly contenders again they can’t keep being buried under big contracts and a thin minor league system. Get rid of the contracts while you can, get low level guys to develop and build the system up so those guys are hopefully ready when you’re ready to compete in 2027 and be deep then.
Mikolas isn’t getting traded before the season. He has no trade value right now. Their only hope to trade him is he pitches well before the deadline, they aren’t in contention, he agrees to be traded.
Really good writeup 667. Thanks for taking the time. You lay it out pretty much the way I see it. We have to become cost effective while investing in our PD system and infrastructure. I wouldn’t expect them to retain any free agents. Which contracts are traded is yet to be seen. It’s highly likely they trade Helsley. I respect everyones opinions, this is mine and the only way I see them returning to being a relevant contender.
I agree. 667’s assessment is reasonable. Yet, the focus is on becoming expense efficient, without considering the revenue and people sides of the equation.
I offer two other factors to consider.
667 asked: “What’s the difference between 83 wins and 65 wins?”
The difference is a team that would be at least a contender for part of the season vs. one that was never in contention from Opening Day. My guess is that would translate to several more thousand fans not attending (below 2024’s 11% drop) plus even lower TV ratings.
They very carefully avoided calling this a rebuild. My feeling is they are going to try to convince fans they are not tanking in 2025. I believe this will moderate their actions.
Why would ownership be willing to take that dual financial hit – both shedding payroll expense and potentially buying down contracts while also losing revenue? Their history is to seek the middle ground, not take considerable financial risk.
Next, do not forget that John Mozeliak remains in charge for his final season. Does anyone think he would embrace a true rebuild? Is he going to be focused more on ending his tenure on a high note or take another year on the chin, his final year, so Bloom can start fresh?
(Bloom is going to be busy on the minors. Yes, he will be involved in big decisions, but he is not yet driving the bus.)
Why would Mozeliak be willing to take that final hit on his legacy so his replacement can shine later on? I don’t think Mozeliak stayed on just to close out his career with a 65-win team.
I did not see/hear anything during the season-ending media session that gives me hope of the more dramatic moves happening. For these reasons and more, I think the team will nibble around the edges instead of making the difficult moves.
I suspect that all winter long, we will read about many elaborate trade theories, few if any of which will actually come to pass.
I hope I am proven wrong, but my bottom line until then is that I question the team’s appetite to do what many think needs to be done.
Brian’s mention of who is driving the bus called up a visual of Jack Nicholson and the fishing excursion in One Few Over the Cuckoo’s Nest.
blingboy
All the contracts will be done before the Cardinals will potentially be competitive again, so no reason to retain any of them. Helsley will become too expensive by then, so no reason to retain him.
So I get being okay with writing off 2025, fine, but 2026 and 2027 too?
Arenado, Gray, and Contreras could still be good then, they were 3 of our top 5 in WAR this year.
Why tank when you can keep the product interesting and entertaining –
and rebuild through improving the system at the same time. Brian made a great point about Mo not wanting to go out on a losing note.jnevel wrote:
Who said they aren’t going to try to win? I’m sure the players are going to try to win. I’m sure the Manager is going to try to win. All that was said was that mlb payroll would go down.
bccran wrote:
Did they tell us that they weren’t trying to win? I missed that.
Here was Mo’s direct quote:
“This is a reset,” said Mozeliak during Monday’s televised news conference. “Yes, this is going to be where we’re not focusing on necessarily building the best possible roster we can. We’re also excited about the roster. We do have a bunch of young players.”
That sentence in bold leads me to believe they aren’t going to try to build a winner. Now does it mean a complete teardown? Not necessarily but I think it could reasonably mean no Goldy, no Gibson, no Lynn, No Kittredge, and no Helsley. Arenado, Contreras, and Gray are TBD.
To me the key is what they do with Gray. If he stays then I think the rotation can be stable enough to win some games next year. If he leaves then all bets are off. I am not concerned about losing Arenado or Contreras.
Also, in my opinion, this reset is about more than just reducing payroll. It is also about restocking the farm system and boosting the player development system. One way to restock the farm system is to trade some expensive guys with value. Contreras and Helsley certainly fall into that category. Gray and Arenado would if we include cash.
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