April 24, 2021 at 10:14 am #159032grayssportsalmanaccParticipantFree
1- as brian said goldy has been known to have slow starts
2- hes aging and yes his skills will more likely than not naturally diminish
3(to dovetail #1) hes also known as a strong finisher, i dont have stats in my pocket but remember seeing many games (when i used to be able to watch ba$eball at home) where he has been hands down the best player in baseball for september or some larger portion of the season after the break.
If there’s one player on this team im not worried about given his past performance and realistic future expectations for production, its paul goldschmidtApril 24, 2021 at 10:26 am #159036
BW said: “Time will tell”
The thread seems appropriate when your star 1Bman is 25% below avg, when he’s normally 25% above avg. That’s a 50% production swing. Seems like normal Cards talk to ask “what’s wrong” with him.
The thread isn’t suggesting his career hasn’t been great, or that he won’t rebound over 162 games. I thought it was wrote to be focused on his 18 game start, as the timeframe. I don’t believe “time will tell” is topic appropriate.April 24, 2021 at 10:30 am #159037grayssportsalmanaccParticipantFree
“I don’t believe “time will tell” is topic appropriate.”
With most players id agree. But for his production lines (which have really been amazingly consistent) he’s known to be a slow starter and a strong finisher.
Def different than taking an 18 game sample in july considering its starting another full season after a crazy 2020 etc, i can certainly agree there. But im not really worried about him unless his line is the same a month from now. Just my opinion.April 24, 2021 at 10:38 am #159039
I’m not worried about him either gray, and as almost everyone has eluded to, it’s a small sample size. I just think the context of the topics timeframe is eroding quickly.April 24, 2021 at 12:32 pm #159052
This team has several things to be concerned about but Goldy isn’t one of them. I think he will do much better hitting 3rd in the lineup. I never like moving him up to 2nd. Sometimes the advanced metrics aren’t the end all be all.April 24, 2021 at 12:41 pm #1590561982 willieParticipantPaid - Annual
Well the problem is the whole idea of a 18 game stretch being a topic. There are plenty of players having worse seasons so far than goldy. I’ve seen multiple games where he has had multiple hits and drove in runs, in fact was one of the few cardinal players hitting. A better topic would be why does arenado always seem to be 0-2 in every at bat. Takes a lot of first pitch strikes right down the middle, then ends up having to try to go down and get one at the knees and usually pops it up. In my mind from watching the games, it’s arenado not goldy that we need to be concerned about if any concern is warranted at all.April 24, 2021 at 12:45 pm #1590571982 willieParticipantPaid - Annual
Gscottar, I agree. I think him batting second wasn’t the best idea. Though to be honest, in today’s game people tend to hit and swing the same way no matter where they hit. I guess my main issue with him batting second is he’s usually behind edman who can steal bases and I don’t like your big bats having to worry about that in front of them.April 28, 2021 at 8:01 am #159349Brian WaltonKeymasterPaid - AnnualApril 28, 2021 at 8:35 am #159354
I am not concerned about Goldy at all. His numbers will be there by the end of the year. I really like him hitting third better than second.April 28, 2021 at 12:55 pm #159370
From BW’s graph in the article, if his monthly ops starts with a 5 or 6, his BAbip for that month starts with a 1 or a 2. No-one is immune to hitting “at-em” balls, which cause a low BA.
While BAbip may be considered SABRE spew, the BA stands for batting average. When anyones BA is in the 1 or 2 hundreds, it weakens the OBP, which weakens the OPS, and here we are.
This is a career .909 player with a career .348 BAbip
Yes, BAbip matters, just like BA matters to the slash line. BAbip just shows the how and why.April 28, 2021 at 1:11 pm #159371
It’s a 23 game sample now.April 28, 2021 at 1:34 pm #159372
As the original Birdos article pointed out, Goldys walk rate is also down considerably too. Last season his OBP was .113 above his BA. This season his OBP is .040 above his BA. That’s a .073 point deficit of BB’s (and one HBP).
A .073 deficit in OBP is also a .073 deficit of OPS, and remember OBP and SLG% are not equals, even though OPS adds them as if they were of equal value. The easiest example would be which is easier to post, a season of .400 OBP, or a season of .400 SLG% ?
OBP is more valuable, and Goldys BAbip and BB% are both affecting his OBP.April 29, 2021 at 8:02 pm #159624RatsbuddyParticipantFree
He continues to struggle.
Is it a question of getting into the warm/hot weather for him that he was used to in Arizona?
r/Esteemed RatApril 29, 2021 at 8:43 pm #159626PugsleyAddamsParticipantPaid - Annual
Goldy, Arenado and Carlson have not even begun to hit yet. And when they do….April 29, 2021 at 8:54 pm #159627
25 game sample size now. Just sayin.April 30, 2021 at 10:57 pm #159783Cards667ParticipantFree
I said when they made the trade Cardinals would “win” short term, Arizona would “win” long term and the trade and extension would look bad by the end of it. Goldy slow start and Carson’s hot start has me wondering how soon it looks bad. Say Carson was blocked or whatever, he and Weaver could make this trade look bad if Goldy deteriorates quickly.May 1, 2021 at 6:07 am #159787
Cards667, the computers will see that Goldy (.214) is only one RBI off the team lead. It will be very nearly as impressed by that as with DeJong (.165) leading the team in HRs. Its sort of like how squibs and rockets look the same in the box score and missles into a shift over and over make for some SABR gold. Hitting meatballs in blowouts looks the same as squaring up a filthy one on the black when it matters.May 1, 2021 at 7:42 am #159790
“Hitting meatballs in blowouts looks the same as squaring up a filthy one on the black when it matters.”
Not to WPA. It’s the most game context dependent stat there is, that focuses entirely on who is helping win games and lose them, by each individual play.May 1, 2021 at 7:49 am #159791
jj, how do Goldy and DeJong look as to WPA?May 1, 2021 at 7:54 am #159792
It’s the most game context dependent stat there is, that focuses entirely on who is helping win games and lose them, by each individual play.
It would be interesting to know how the data used to calculate WPA is compiled.May 1, 2021 at 8:00 am #159793
OK, well I am lost. Checking WPA on BBRef Carlson is -0.3, the same as Nogowski.May 1, 2021 at 8:05 am #159794
It sounds like WPA would be something you’d appreciate. I know it’s got the SABRE acronym, so it’s immediately junk, but if who’s helping us win matters, WPA shows it without caring what the players names are.
WPA calls out the change in win expectancy, play by play, and credits the pitcher and batter equally, one a plus, the other a minus, and it changes with every play, just like the chances of winning or losing do.
I can show you a game where DeJong hit a meaningless HR late in a 10-0 blowout and got 0.00 credit from WPA, because our chances of winning didn’t change. Can also show you a walkoff HR where he was rewarded handsomely. That’s what you mentioned above. How meaningful each play is, or not.May 1, 2021 at 8:24 am #159795
I open the fangraphs live scoreboard during our games, every game, and watch the win expectancy change during the game, play by play, on the play log. Seeing how impactful each play is, is enjoyable to me. As you said, “when it matters” is a huge part of the game.May 1, 2021 at 8:54 am #159797PugsleyAddamsParticipantPaid - Annual
Maybe Gorman’s “natural” position is not 2nd base, 3rd base, left field or right field, but rather 1st base? Not ready to throw in the towel on Goldy yet, as you know he’s going to start stroking it soon, but the end of his career is becoming visible at the end of the tunnel.May 1, 2021 at 12:20 pm #159814
I think the angst on Goldy is overblown. We all have high expectations for him because he has been a perennial MVP candidate but if you compare him to the rest of our lineup he isn’t far off. His numbers will be fine in due time.
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