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Is it a concern or nothing to worry about? We have had some conversations about him in other threads but a good VEB article came out today discussing his early start:
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2021/4/22/22396727/goldschmidts-slow-start
The long and short of it is that he’s swinging at too many pitches (often bad ones) and while he’s hitting the ball hard, it’s on the ground too much. This means that his bad starts aren’t really so much due to bad luck this year, so an approach change may be needed.
Thoughts?
Perhaps there is something in the numbers-intensive analysis from the VEB writer, but without a lot of thought, I am not surprised that Goldy is in a slump.
He has always been known for streaky play. In the last four years at least, he invariably has at least one really bad entire month every season.
Also remember that Goldy was scratched from the home opener due to back soreness. The VEB story is so deep into the analysis weeds that these basic details are not considered.
OPS
April 2021 .624 (current)
Sept/Oct 2020 .774
August 2019 .705
June 2019 .582
May 2018 .531
Sept/Oct 2017 .555
etc.My guess is that this microanalysis of 18 games’ worth of data will all be forgotten when he puts up a .950 OPS next month…
Quick thoughts on Goldys batted ball profile. The author points out Pauls increased ground ball percentage, and while I agree in general that’s a negative from a hitters point of view, I don’t believe it’s a contributing factor in his decreased ops to date.
MLB has a .230 BA and .488 OPS on ground balls so far in 2021.
Paul has a .320 BA and .640 OPS, with grounders accounting for 46% of his batted ball profile. Paul has no extra base hits on grounders so far with 8 hits and 8 total bases but has been very fortunate the grounders have cleared the infield rate wise.MLB has a .216 BA and .865 OPS on fly balls.
Paul has a .150 BA and .650 OPS, with fly balls as 37% of his batted balls. Significant. The SABRE community would call this BAbip “bad luck”. Our community may be more comfortable with he’s “hitting them at-em’, instead of tween-em”. Take your pick, it’s still “bad luck” when a fly ball finds a glove instead of grass or the seats, from Pauls perspective.MLB has a .637 BA and 1.529 OPS on line drives.
Paul has a .667 and 1.444 OPS, with line drives accounting for only 17% of his batted balls.Non-grounders do total 54% of Pauls batted balls, and their combined OPS total is .300 points below mlb average. For me this is a contributing factor.
SSS alert.
BR – splits by hit trajectoryI have mentioned several times on game threads that something is not right with Goldy. Just looking at his approach, to me it is mostly a matter of him not picking up the pitches very well. He seems to let too many fat pitches go, and gets into a hole where he has to fight off the borderline stuff.
Is this a physical problem, or as Brian surmised maybe just a slump that most all hitters go through? We will see.
Not related to his slow start, but I also do not like him hitting second. Unless you have an abundance of power hitters on your team, you really want your run producers in the 3 and 4 slots in the traditional pitcher-hits lineup. There is some justification for having a run producer at 2 in a DH lineup, but ideally you want a speedier on-base guy at 2. For now I think Carlson is the best we can offer at that slot.
With our lineup, Goldy is not going to get much of a chance to turn a game around with the 8-9-1 coming up ahead of him. He will disproportionately be hitting with none or one on.
To your point Mike, Goldy has had 37 runners on base in 76 PA’s. The average mlb player w/76 PA’s has had 45 runners on base. Our leadoff man has a .341 OBP so the lack of runners is the back of the lineup and the first inning lack of hitters in front of him.
Arenado has had 43 runners on base in 77 PA’s, with mlb avg of 46 in 77 PA’s.
DeJong and Molina have split cleanup duties, their season opportunities are:
DeJong has had 46 runners with 42 as the avg.
Molina has had 31 runners with 39 as the avg.jj…. good comment. A lot of talk here is about the lack of runners on base for Goldschmidt. Edman does a good job of getting on but there isn’t much from the bottom as you said. I would like to see Carlson up in front of Goldy also.
With runners on the pitcher needs to be mindful of them not just the hitter. Does that matter? Maybe so. After Arenado batting fourth there’s DeJong-Molina-Carpenter-Williams. With an improved O’Neill coming back he might make the bottom four stronger. The lineup for tonight should be telling of what direction Shildt will go in.Did anybody ever consider the fact that it’s possible Goldschmidt isnt as good as what everyone thinks he is?
Good point, Rats. After all, he has only 4 Silver Slugger awards, 3 Gold Glove awards and named to just 6 All Star Games. His last 18 games are far more important than a decade of success.
BW points out that he used to be super good in the past. The last AS/SS season being 2018. Numbers dropped off significantly in 2019. Not saying he is nosediving, but he is the same age as when Carp went off the cliff. He turns 34 in September so some tailing off of productivity would be normal enough. But he’s not likely at all to hit .236 for the year.
Good point Mr. Walton. And you are right – he has HAD all of those things. But he’s trending downward and that makes me think people are expecting too much of him. At this point I would say a line of .270/25/90 is more likely than .300/33/110.
We shall see. As always, I hope I am wrong.
r/Esteemed Rat
bling, you seem to have conveniently overlooked Goldy’s 2020. I wonder why that is?????
.304/.417/.466/.883
OPS+ of 144 was his highest since 2015If your argument is small sample size, what do you call just 18 games this season?
I thought you have been dismissing 2020 performances. As to the small sample so far this year, I don’t think he will go .236 all year, as I mentioned. I do think his AS/SS/GG years are behind him and tailing off of production is likely and not unexpected.
Brian:
I hope you will forgive me but you answered your own question. Yes, the last 18 games mean more than a decade of success. He was a great hitter once…one of the best in baseball but that was then and this is now. Can he turn things around and start producing? Yes, certainly and I think he may pick it up but not because he has silver slugger awards and all-star appearances. It will be because he still has something left in the tank. Now, I have to say that if he IS fading and he doesn’t come around and produce…it will be a long year of frustration and failure. Fingers crossed that its not yet another bad contract.
Sorry 18 games is just that, 18 games meaningless in a 162 game schedule. It’s why guys having above 400 averages and lots of homeruns mean nothing at this stage. Sure goldy may end up having a bad year but to worry about it now means nothing. It’s someone like carpenter who has had a struggle for a few years running now that you have to wonder why they are starting over others. I think goldy will bounce back and have a solid year but just like past seasons and all other guys he will have stretches where he looks horrible.
I think he will bounce back too, just not to his former lofty performances. I hope he can equal 2019, but close is probably more realistic.
If he can do what he’s done for us since he’s been here, it will be fine. Arenado isn’t exactly tearing the ball up right now but I don’t see a thread about that. Bottom line to win it’s going to take more players performing at a good level as opposed to two players hitting great and no others. It’s a team sport. If it came down to just the superstars, mike trout should be leading the angels to the playoffs every year.
I am hoping that once the weather warms up that both Goldschmidt and Arenado start to hit better.
Remember, Goldschmidt played in Arizona where it’s about 100 degrees every day of the year, including in the shade in January..:)
r/Esteemed Rat
I’ve been saying Carlson should be hitting 2nd from the end of last year. Arenado 3rd and Goldschmidt cleanup.
r/Esteemed Rat
Yeah JJ……Rat was the first one calling for Carlson batting second in the order…..with all due respect to Nyquist. One day Carlson will find himself ensconced in that coveted #3 hole.
Rats…. I know that you suggested Carlson to #2 before and I think I saw it elsewhere. I think its a no-brainer.
It makes sense to put a guy with a .370 OBP above the RBI guys in the order.
I was glad to see Goldy take a walk Friday, his BB rate rocketed up to 6%. Didn’t like the 2 Ks though. Liked Williams 3 Ks even less. That big long swing reminds me of kids in little league.
All players decline as they are in their 30s. Certainly Goldschmidt is not immune. The questions are when and how gradual it will be. I will never agree that 18 games of data are relevant, whether good or bad. Write it off or not, his 2020 was very good. I think this whole thread is much ado over nothing. You can disagree. Time will tell.
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