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Threading that needle will be very difficult. It was far easier to slide into this situation than it will be to get out of it. Hard for me to see it happening all at once right now.
I guess it all gets down to how urgent their sense of urgency really is. For example, trading Arenado is just not a Cardinal move, but I also get the observation that their current course is not working.
If they keep their win now guys, they need to add win now pitching.
Time will tell if this is the 2006/07 situation (the clear start of a needed rebuild) or more the 2003 situation (a blip on the screen of a nice run of contention), yet I agree with this. I think there are win-win trades to be had out there for the Cards, and it might seem painful but could be worth it in the end. Nootbaar or Donovan, for example, would hurt to lose but if you get a controllable #2 starter from it, could be a win.
Free agency will have to be a part of this, no doubt. I am expecting at least one upper tier starter this winter, and depending on the trade market, it would be prudent to get at least one more mid tier guy and a couple #5/bullpen types as well. The pitching needs a real rebuild, and the money and trade assets are available to do it.
The CWS have recently traded 4 FA-to-be pitchers (Giolito, Lynn, Lopez and Kelly). The return they received is minimal for 2024 impact.
STL will not fix the pitching by trading rentals.
I don’t think rental players have brought instant impact at any point in the past, really. I think some combo of rentals for relievers and future prospect value, plus Noot or Donovan for a starter, plus free agency, and a little luck with a prospect panning out for once (McGreevy, Graceffo, Liberatore, etc) will get us there.
The return they received is minimal for 2024 impact.
STL will not fix the pitching by trading rentals.
Agreed.
I hope the Cardinals haven’t squandered better packages looking for 2024 pitching.
Moving controllable make something happen guys like Donovan and Noot while hoping O’Neill will hit 35 homers next year is just what I fear Mo might do.
“future prospect value” is rebuilding, in which case there is no need for win now contracts.
“Noot and Donovan for a starter” is robbing Peter to pay Paul. In an equal value trade we don’t get better, we simply shuffle deck chairs.
“plus free agency”. This is Bill we are expecting to buy impact pitching? Hope is not a strategy.
Free agency is the correct approach if we keep our win now contracts, but this ownership group is stuck in 2020, trying to avg out the profits on a 5yr ROI, while limiting payroll additions. Our payroll ranking has trended down since 2020, as planned.
It is time for MO to crap or get off the pot.Waiting for the perfect deal till the last minute just could fall thru and end up with nothing done to help next season.Not saying just give the players away….just be pro-active instead of being the last man to the table.
It’s not a hole to dig out of in one year. Mo talks like the goal is to compete next year. Even squeaking into post is a stretch. No ML pitching staff, with no depth at AAA and a dysfunctional ML roster doesn’t get fixed and be competitive by opening day. But Mo and BDW are not going to admit failure.
Picking up on the need for “win now” pitching…I keep trying to grapple with what that is. My sense is that part of it is having upside pitchers, but part is depth. Part of the problem this year is that the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation have been particularly problematic, adding strain everywhere else. I think of these as spots where the pitcher needs to consistently keep the team in the game through the end of five. They don’t need to be folks who largely win the game on their own. I’m optimistic that Matz has turned a corner here and will be a solid 4th or 5th starter next year. Landing the other, say next year’s 5th starter, before the trade deadline seems to me doable. Perhaps this is a couple solid AAA pitchers a bit closer than Graceffo is, someone who can let Graceffo get the AAA time he needs.
Mikolas has been inconsistent this year, but part of that is the danged WBC, I suspect. I am fine with him being one of the top three pitchers in the rotation. But they need to get two more. Last year they got Montgomery at the deadline. I’d like to see them do that magic again. Then a top end free agent could look at us and see “hey, I’m joining a team with Mikolas, [trade deadline three], Matz, and AAA guy who will be fifth. This is a rotation that has a good shot at the postseason” and we become a more attractive option.
So I don’t see us getting this all done at the deadline. But we can make a downpayment. Montgomery cost us Bader. Bader seems closer to Carlson or DeJong to me than he does to Donovan or Noot. Bader was at 1.2 WAR for the season when he was traded last year. DeJong is at 0.9, Carlson 0.7. [Noot is at 2.6, Donovan 1.9]. Add in Montgomery to this year’s trade, and the fact that we got Montgomery last year makes me think we have some chance of pulling off a deal for someone who could be a number 3 starter next year without trading, say, Donovan or Noot.
Monty is likely as good a deal on a mid rotation guy as whatever Mo will find this Winter. It might be better to sign him up than trade him.
I’d love to see Monty re-signed. But my money is that he will want to see what he can get on the market at year’s end.
I would think all the players in their walk year will want to test the market.
That doesn’t preclude them from re-signing with the Cardinals but unless Mo makes them an oversized offer they probably will see what other clubs are willing to pay…
Mo has got himself backed into a corner and if he doesn’t get as much right at the trade deadline and in free agency as he got wrong the last couple of years 2024 wont be much better than 2023.
He has managed to completely waste Goldschmidt & Arenado.
Trying to be buyers and sellers at the same time is very difficult. I am not sure this front office is capable of that. Probably better to just pick a lane and execute.
According to media reports I have seen, the Cardinals sounded out both Flaherty and Hicks on possible extensions, telling them they would be traded otherwise, but have not done the same with Monty. (If we can believe the media reports, of course.)
(If we can believe the media reports, of course.)
Maybe our media makes up stuff less than LA’s media. Except the Helsley lingering, of course. But nothing besides that.
Maybe our media makes up stuff less than LA’s media. Except the Helsley lingering, of course. But nothing besides that.
Another possibility is the STL beat writers are the last to know. It seems that way a lot of the time.
One of the more intriguing trade candidates to me is Tyler O’Neill. I am assuming his trade value is low right now due to the injuries so the Cardinals have to decide whether to sell low or keep him. If they keep him then they almost have to offer him arbitration next year because if they don’t they will be criticized for letting him walk for nothing when they could have gotten some kind of return at the deadline. I suppose they could offer him arbitration then try to trade him but that would just be more salary attached to him that they would have to trade.
TEX has lost their starting catcher perhaps for the rest of the season. Since Hicks is rumored to be sent to the Rangers, maybe Mozeliak could figure out a way of making some sort of deal with those two for a young starter. TEX has two in Owen White #2 prospect and #14 Winn both at AAA, plus 25 y.o. LHP Cody Bradford who is on the MLB roster and has started and relieved this season for the Rangers and has gone 5.0inn. in four of his five starts.
Since not spending as much time on STL baseball lately, I was playing GM for a while. I’m still losing sleep over the thought of Mozeliak blowing it again come deadline day.
gscottar said:
Just a little more than 72 hours to go Brian. I know that you hate this time of year. 🙂
I will have to gut it out again. At least it will be over soon…
The return they received is minimal for 2024 impact.
STL will not fix the pitching by trading rentals.
That’s fine. Build the prospects up! Assess 2024 in the off season and if they have to trade some of those prospects or their current prospects then so be it. Get talent with control. There’s absolutely ZERO reason to hold on to anyone with expiring contracts or redundancy at positions. If they don’t move Montgomery, Flaherty, Stratton, Hicks, VerHagen, DeJong it’s absolutely unacceptable. And I’d throw O’Neill in there too. I know they don’t want to sell low. But come on with it, enough is enough. Go with Nootbaar, Carlson, Walker the rest of the year and Burlson off the bench. Get something for O’Neill before he hits .220 the rest of the year with 30%+ K rate and it becomes a question of it he’s nontendered or not. I’d consider trading Edman or Arenado too if the return was high enough and more immediate help.
#STLCards manager Oli Marmol on feeling his team can rectify its issues at the deadline & in free agency in the offseason: “I'm in conversation with everybody above me (in the FO) & I'm highly confident we will be extremely competitive in ‘24. We’re not going through this again.”
— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) July 29, 2023
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