What is right with the Cardinals and what can be done to keep it going??

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  • #60602
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    Sorry. Mikolas –

    2018 – $7.5 million
    2019 – $8.0 million
    2020 – arbitration
    2021 – arbitration
    2022 – arbitration
    2023 – free agent

    #60603
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    That source is incorrect, bccran. They probably did an automatic listing based on service time without taking into consideration his specific contract agreement. In their defense, media does not have direct access to contract details and following 30 organizations worth of players must be a challenge. Oversights like this can occur.

    #60604
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    Thanks, Brian. Then he can file for FA after the 2019 season? If so, should we think about tacking on several years right now?

    #60606
    AvatarSoonerinNC
    Participant

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    The thing most right about the organization is pitching. And that is the most important strength you can have.

    Jose Martinez is as good as you can get off the bench but not as a starter except as a DH. If we can get some value we should move him.

    The 2017 Pham is great. Now his eyes may be a problem. He seems to not get a good jump on the ball to the outfield. If his eyes are or will become OK he will be of value.

    While many are focused on Molina’s contract and are dying to replace him with Kelly, he is probably having the best offensive year of his career. He has slowed on defense but his handling of pitchers is an invaluable comodity. In the future we may see Kelly a backup catcher somewhere else, solely on his defense and Knizner a first baseman because of his offense. Younger guys like Ortega, Rodriguez or Herrera may be the catcher of the future.

    Bader a good defensive outfielder and hitting better than Pham or Fowler and better OPS than Ozuna. I do thing we will see much better things from Ozuna.

    Munoz a good utility guy.

    Hicks and Norris in the pen. Gant performance encouraging.

    Solid backup for almost everyone at Memphis.

    #60607
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Well, there are a lot of questions still about the way to go with Mikolas.

    It is unknown whether Mikolas would be open to a long-term contract and what his terms might be. He will be 31 years old when his current deal ends and could see free agency as his one big chance to score a huge contract. In my view, he seems quietly confident in himself, which makes me suspect he would not necessarily jump for an offer now unless it was huge.

    With Lynn at roughly the same age, the Cardinals did not make a move to retain him at full market value (finding Mikolas as a relative bargain instead).

    Considering all that as well as the young pitching talent at or close to St. Louis, I would be very surprised to see an extension for Mikolas this year. Next year is too far away to guess about.

    #60622
    AvatarPadsFS
    Participant

    Free

    BW, when (or where) was it stated that Mikolas is going to be a free agent after his contract? I haven’t heard that before.

    I asked back in Feb/Mar and you said that there was a lot for Mikolas to do before that would come up. (paraphrasing here)

    #60623
    AvatarPadsFS
    Participant

    Free

    Even though he went to Japan, I didn’t know an American ballplayer could opt out of the required service time/arbitration platform.

    #60628
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I think it’s similar to the Oh situation where it’s a contract clause. At least that’s how I’ve understood it.

    It’s good for Miles but unfortunate for us because he’d look good in a Cards uniform for 4 more years.

    #60639
    AvatarPadsFS
    Participant

    Free

    But we knew that upfront in the Oh contract. Also, Oh was never a stateside player and had become a “int’l FA” after his 10 years of service in Japan.

    #60641
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Pads, Mikolas’ contract was discussed on May 29 on the Affiliate Observations thread. Why there, I don’t know.

    Since the general public does not have direct access to contract information, often times details trickle out later.

    https://thecardinalnation.com/forums/topic/affiliate-observations/page/20/#post-54275

    #60668
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    Maybe some other things will come into play with Mikolas (that came into play when he signed here) –

    1.) He has family here.
    2.) He likes the fan base here.
    3.) He’s from Jupiter, and likes to have ST there.
    4.) And not the least – Maddux is a huge factor.

    #60671
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    But even if all those are true, will the Cardinals make a substantial offer? It takes two to tango.

    #60675
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
    Participant

    Paid - Monthly

    Brian, is it fair to say the Cards did not want Lynn at full market value? The offered him 17.5 via a qualifying offer and it turned iut his full mkt value for a one year deal was 12-14 million.

    #60676
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Yes. As far as we know, the Cards did not make Lynn an offer, except the one-year deal they knew he would decline. Most would agree he had to settle far below value solely because of the unique free agent market this past winter.

    For example, MLBTR, which studies the market extensively, estimated in November that he would get four years, $56 million. While the AAV was accurate, the term was not.

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

    #60677
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
    Participant

    Paid - Monthly

    The market is what the market is.

    #60680
    grayssportsalmanaccgrayssportsalmanacc
    Participant

    Free

    “The thing most right about the organization is pitching. And that is the most important strength you can have.” sooner nc (sorry i still dont know how to quote here)

    strength is only important in one area if you can either utilize it or maximize it in a trade with a competitive advantage, which was the goal…i dont think we have really been as effective here as our FO would like…

    is the oneill for gonzalez trade a win? Objectively, not really, but the goal is having a competitive edge to trade from. Over the years I dont know that we can say we have fully utilized that objective, at least yet.

    Correct me if im wrong. But the original idea to draft SP was to UTILIZE if need be with good mif defense, and trade for bats. We have simply gone off the rails entirely.

    #60681
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    That was my question regarding Mikolas. Should the Cards try to extend him?

    #60689
    BlackHillsCardBlackHillsCard
    Participant

    Free

    Need to get better at drafting. Next year they wont have the penalty and will be able to spend better in the international signing period.

    #60699
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    They had an excellent draft this year. Especially the top 5 picks.

    #60714
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    It looks fine on paper, but it is impossible for anyone to accurately assess any draft after just four weeks. Two of the top five picks haven’t played a single professional game.

    #60715
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Good point, Brian. So is drafting something you think the Cardinals have done well? I think it’s been solid over the years, if not the best in the game (VEB did an analysis last year I think on it). This year, there are some things to like, for sure.

    As for the Cards, another positive for me…Bader. It seems like every scout missed on his defense because the dude’s been all world out there. He might always struggle against righties a bit but he seems smart and he mashes lefties. I’d feel comfortable with him as an average CF right now and he could get better.

    #60716
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Yes, generally the drafts have been good, though I am not excited about recent classes as much. The first three picks in 2015 were not great, but the next four (Bader, Hicks, DeJong and Helsley) more than made up for it. Hudson, Knizner and maybe Carlson may make 2016 ok despite Delvin.

    Contrast that 2015 success in rounds 3-5 with 2017. That is why I don’t give the Cards a pass for last year, even though their first selection was not until round 3. We have seen very little from the 2017 class as a whole. The best pick might be the 11th rounder, Mendoza. Still plenty of time for someone to emerge, though.

    Another factor I noticed (and wrote about) is that this year, the Cards abandoned their recent approach of saving money in rounds 1-10 to spend more on higher risk picks later. My review of that showed it has not been effective. (It was started pre-Flores.)

    #60726
    Avatarforsch31
    Participant

    Free

    Brian, do you know who has the decision in who to draft? I know there is a lot of input from many sources but someone has to make the final choice.

    #60731
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    It’s amazing sometimes how you can look at the records of draftees, read scouting reports, and offer an amateur prediction on how well they might do as a professional.

    For instance, some of us predicted that Marco Gonzales would move through the system quickly. Why? Because the scouts said he was the closest to being major league ready among all the starting pitchers in the draft in 2013. They said his advanced change would enable him to fly through the lower minors. Sure enough, he actually made the Cardinals in 2014, his first full year in pro ball.

    We took a strong look at Michael Wacha when he was drafted in the first round of 2012. We analyzed his stats at Texas A&M and read as many scouting reports as we could find on him. They said he had a quality plus downward angle fastball, a good curve, and a plus changeup. They said he had a possibility of making the majors in his first full year. Sure enough, he made the Cardinals in 2013 and had a 2.78 ERA in 15 major league games.

    Some of us apply the same diligence to the Cardinals draft picks every year. That’s why I can offer my opinion that guys like Gorman, Roberts, Gingery, Baker, are good picks and that I was happy with them in 2018. It’s an opinion, but it’s after many hours of diligence.

    #60737
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    As director of scouting, Randy Flores makes the call on draft picks.

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