Wainwright or Ross in 2019

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This topic contains 101 replies, has 26 voices, and was last updated by Brian Walton Brian Walton 8 months ago.

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  • #72265
    stlcard25
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    I love Waino…don’t necessarily love this move, but if the FO is intent on moving some pitching in trades, then I guess I get it. At worst, he’s likely to eat some innings unless he gets hurt again. I’ll be curious what the $$ amount is. Hopefully like $3 million with incentives.

    #72266
    Brian Walton
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    Interesting point, forsch. I don’t know how incentive bonuses are considered, but they must be a part, because there is no way the Cards gave him a contract with a base salary of $15.6 MM ($19.5 MM minus 20 percent).

    #72268
    Euro Dandy
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    However, since he signed before free agency, the largest cut he could take is 20%.

    Don’t think this is correct forsh. I think the two parties are able to agree to whatever. I think you are thinking of where the two parties can’t agree, the player’s contract is expiring, and the player hasn’t yet reached years of service for FA. AW is way beyond that.

    #72271
    Euro Dandy
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    forsch’s comment made me search for some references. Just started reading some of the CBA language on salary and reductions, and my comment might not be right. It’s not the lightest reading in the world and I’ve only done a quick scan, but maybe some of what Brian said about bonuses & incentives is at play here. I’ll try to look at it more thoroughly later.

    • This reply was modified 1 year ago by Euro Dandy Euro Dandy.
    • This reply was modified 1 year ago by Euro Dandy Euro Dandy.
    #72279
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    forsch31
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    I think the whole thing hinges on the definition of a player “under reserve to the club”. The way I read the areas covering when a player is under reserve, Wainwright is under reserve until the day after the World Series is over. At that point, he becomes a free agent. Once in free agency, he is able to sign any contract with any team. A major league free agent contract only needs to be for at least the league minimum. However, while under reserve, he can only sign a contract with a 20% reduction (or 30% depending on how that area reads) in salary from the previous year. Incentives might be able to be included in that base salary figure, if I read everything correctly.

    #72280
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    Cardinals2016
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    Once again, Mozeliak refuses to acknowledge where the Cardinals are:
    – They’ve missed the playoffs three years in a row
    – During those three years, Wainwright has not had below a 4.40 ERA or 1.40 WHIP

    Rather than upgrade a position, Mozeliak maintains the steady-as-you-go, we-are-resistant-to-change attitude.

    And everyone loves him for it.

    If this move is indicative of the offseason, 2019 will be another year without playoffs.

    #72281
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    NJ315
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    I agree. No need to resign Waino other than sentimental reasons. He hasn’t pitched well the last 4 years and was paid handsomely for it. Shaking my head.

    #72282
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    forsch31
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    I agree that if this is the kind of signings and trades we make this off-season, we will be in for another year of struggling to make the playoffs. However, if Waino is 100%, he is still a good pitcher. He would make a good #4-#5 starter or a good reliever. Right now, he has shown me as much as Weaver. I would trust him as much as Cecil, Leone or Bowman. My concern is how much we had to pay him.

    #72306
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    gscottar
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    I am not excited about Waino coming back. I’m not worried about the money since the contract will be mostly incentive based but I just don’t want him taking up space that could be going to someone more productive. I understand he has value as a mentor but we need to be in the business of winning baseball games and we need to stop trying to live in the past. 2004, 2006, 2011, and 2013 are long gone.

    #72314
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    forsch31
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    Name me 5 starting pitchers and 8 relief pitchers currently on the Cardinals or in their system that are better than Wainwright.

    #72316
    Brian Walton
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    “If you do not agree with my decision, you are a troll.” (not a direct quote – my interpretation)

    Wainwright has always been overly positive (something even Matheny noted), so this comment is a bit surprising, but now he seems to be using the doubters as motivation.

    Personally, I would prefer to also see him be candid about the last three years, but I guess that is not in his DNA. (Same with the observers who are so positively spinning his 4.46 ERA in 2018.)

    I’ve said it before, but if results could be solely governed by positive thinking, then Wainwright would win the Cy Young Award every year.

    #72317
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    Bw52
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    Wacha,Gomber,Poncedeleon,Mikolas,CMartinez,Flaherty,Gant,Brebbia,Hudson,Hicks,Leone,Mayers,Cabrera,

    #72321
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    forsch31
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    Bw52, if that is a response to my post, do you really think Leone, Mayers and Cabrera are currently better than Wainwright? Did Hudson show that he is currently better than Wainwright?

    I think Wainwright can help some of the young guys be better and also helps the depth of the team. I am not saying that he deserves to start.

    #72328
    Brian Walton
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    Wow, sure seems like Goold is pandering to the hometown readers here. Better than 148 career wins, 0 Cy Youngs, 3 All-Star games and one World Series championship means Cooperstown? C’mon, man… They would need to erect another building just to have enough walls to hang all the additional Hall of Fame pitchers’ plaques.

    Yes, Wainwright will one day enter the TEAM Hall of Fame, and deservedly so, but this Cooperstown level assertion is just silly talk.

    For example, Chris Carpenter had 144 wins, 1 Cy, 3 ASGs, 2 Comeback Player of the Year awards and 2 World titles. I believe most everyone would agree Carp was more decorated than Wainwright. He received just 0.5% of the Hall of Fame vote (2 votes) and was removed from the ballot after one year.

    #72352
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    RememberDiz
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    Once healthy, he was good at the end of the year, and we are young.

    #72354
    Brian Walton
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    How do you define “good”?

    Upon his return, Wainwright had one quality start in four.

    9/10: 4 ER in 5 IP
    9/16: 0 ER in 6 IP
    9/22: 4 ER in 6 1/3 IP
    9/28: 4 ER in 5 IP

    Sept: 4.84 ERA

    Average NL starting pitcher in 2018: 4.00 ERA
    Average StL starting pitcher in 2018: 3.52 ERA (including Wainwright)
    Average StL starting pitcher in 2018: 3.48 ERA (excluding Wainwright)

    With pitching the strength of the Cardinals, my hope is that even the #5 starter will be better than a five ERA pitcher.

    We all know that Wainwright will have to pitch his way out of the rotation. Because of his many past contributions, he will be given a longer rope than others would if he struggles. That is my concern.

    #72360
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    14NyquisT
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    Its a very legitimate concern, considering that this is the team that continued to use Fowler and Cecil when it was quite evident that they were hurting the team.

    Right now it appears that there will be 3 roster spots that will be blocking progress for a third year, before the season even starts. I am just not getting this at all.

    #72362
    bicyclemike
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    If the deal was done for bullpen help and leadership, given that the Cards have so many young pitchers just about ready for regular major league duty, then I really like this. Especially given what Waino has meant to the organization.

    If the thought is that Waino will be part of the rotation, then it does not make a lot of sense.

    But I get the feeling he will be pretty good next year, similar to a ’79 Lou Brock. Brock was terrible in ’78, and came back for one more year and finished his career like a Hall of Famer. I think Waino can do the same thing, but not as a starter.

    #72365
    Brian Walton
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    bikemike, he was signed as a starter, with incentives for both starting and relieving reportedly in the contract.

    “He’ll come to Spring Training as a starting pitcher, and then we’ll see how things work out,” general manager Michael Girsch said.

    https://www.mlb.com/cardinals/news/adam-wainwright-signs-with-cardinals-for-2019/c-297632634

    #72367
    bicyclemike
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    Yeah, I thought they would give him a shot to start. I see him as a great asset to the bullpen, but more of a liability as a starter as there are younger, stronger arms available.

    But as I always say, you just never know how things will play out. Maybe Waino will be the 2019 version of Mikolas.

    #72369
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    Bw52
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    Forsch-at this stage I feel all those guys are better than Wainwright.I do like Wainwright but I think his days as a contributor are mostly over.He might flasgh some old magic every now and then but all the others have some upsides while AW is the past.I would love it if AW suddenly reverted back to his old self but it likely won1t happen.Smoke and mirrors only fool hitters for a while .As for his mentoring younger guys that is good.Can he a fill a swingman role next season? I guess we will see.

    #72380
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    gscottar
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    14NyquisT

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    Its a very legitimate concern, considering that this is the team that continued to use Fowler and Cecil when it was quite evident that they were hurting the team.

    Right now it appears that there will be 3 roster spots that will be blocking progress for a third year, before the season even starts. I am just not getting this at all.

    I couldn’t have said it better Nyquis. That is exactly how I feel. We can’t afford to play with a 22 man roster unless we are content to dork around in third place forever.

    #72381
    stlcard25
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    I believe most everyone would agree Carp was more decorated than Wainwright.

    Apart from the fact that Waino has more wins, fewer losses, a better ERA, better FIP, higher K/9, lower BB/9, lower HR/9, lower WHIP, a better ERA+, more top 3 Cy Young finishes (thanks, Kershaw), and a better WAR total…I totally agree that Carpenter was more decorated. ?

    On the serious side, this era may well change what we view as a Hall of Fame starter. Big, well used bullpens mean wins might not be a deciding factor, and innings totals might mean little either as the Verlanders and Wainwrights retire.

    That said, I would generally disagree that Waino is a HOF starter. He might well have been had he not missed entire seasons of his prime with the injuries, but he’s not likely to get much support.

    But Goold’s point is “better, more decorated.” So say Alex Reyes wins 150 games, a couple Cy Youngs and leads the league in ERA and/or innings pitched while the Cards win a title or two…he’s got a very good Cooperstown case then.

    #72383
    Brian Walton
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    stlcard25, comparing Wainwright and Carpenter is splitting hairs between two pitchers with virtually no chance of being Hall of Famers. (Wainwright also has another year coming to drag down his career rate stats.)

    The original comment from Goold is not reality no matter how the words are spun. His clear implication is that Wainwright is just short of Cooperstown qualification, but the reality is that he is not close (nor is Carpenter, which I why I brought him up.)

    If you review the stats of the current Hall of Famers, you’ll see there are zero starting pitchers since the 1800s in Cooperstown with less than 150 wins. Among the very few under 200 wins are truly special talents, but exception cases Dizzy Dean and Sandy Koufax, whose careers were ended early due to injury. Carpenter and Wainwright are not parallels with them for multiple reasons.

    #72386
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    gscottar
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    If I had one big game to win I would take Carp over Waino every time. They both had great stuff in their prime but Carp also had the attitude of Bob Gibson.

    • This reply was modified 1 year ago by Avatar gscottar.
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