Wainwright’s dead arm and the playoff rotation

Home The Cardinal Nation Forums Open Forum Wainwright’s dead arm and the playoff rotation

Viewing 25 posts - 1 through 25 (of 97 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #202395
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Unless he straightens it out, can they afford to start him in the playoffs?

    #202401
    blingboy
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Who says he has to start. Think 2006.

    #202403
    Euro Dandy
    Participant

    Free

    Mikolas, Monty, Q, Wainwright, Flaherty. Who are the top 3 for the Wild Card series? It they advance, they will need 4 starters, so who is that guy? Then if the NLDS goes 5 games and they advance to the NLCS, and then that goes 7 games, you might need a 5th starter. That would be the case unless there is a rainout or somebody goes on short rest. In any event, if Wainwright continues to be hampered by the dead arm, I don’t think you want him coming out of the pen unless it’s a one-sided game.

    Of course, if we have to worry who’s going to pitch game 7 of the NLCS, some good stuff is going to happen.

    #202421
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    It would be a very tough call for the Cardinals to exclude Waino, but the best three right now are Monty, Q and Mikolas.

    #202422
    stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Waino at home…7-3, 2.61 ERA

    Waino on the road…4-8, 4.73 ERA

    I’m content with him starting in St Louis, but not interested in him getting a road start in October.

    #202423
    ZTR
    Participant

    Free

    He is 41. Let him skip his next 2 starts?

    #202424
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Marmol said the way for Wainwright to get past his dead arm is to pitch his way through it. Maybe he could do it in the pen rather than in games, but there is the pride thing to be considered.

    I am not sure his home-road splits that go all the way back to April are more important right now than his recent results. 6.38 ERA in five September starts, three of which were at home. 5.40 Sept home ERA, 8.00 on the road.

    Maybe Monty is no longer an automatic, either.

    #202426
    ZTR
    Participant

    Free

    Pitch through a dead arm? Is that really a thing? Is his velocity down and are the Cards / Wainwright calling it a ‘dead arm’ or is he just struggling?

    #202428
    stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I think the road-home splits still mean something. I’ll stick with being more comfortable with him at Busch than on the road. Right now, Monty isn’t looking all that great either. In a do or die situation, you’d think a short leash and all hands on deck would be the order of the day anyway.

    #202430
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    I agree that Waino is better at home than on the road. The data supports that. But the real question is whether his recent downturn both at home and on the road warrants the risk of starting him in a three-game series?

    And if so, in what game of the three? Do you start Q and Mikolas in Games 1-2 and risk Waino in an elimination game?

    If Monty gets back on track in his next start, it could push Waino out… or not…

    #202432
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Adam is always effective vs PIT, his next start, so the org can likely claim “he’s fine” and line him up for the postseason.

    #202434
    stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    At this point I go Mikolas, Waino, Quintana. If the Cards clinch in two then it leaves Q available for game 1 of the NLCS. But the way the rotation looks now, that order may not fit so maybe Mikolas, Q, Waino like you mentioned.

    Monty and Flaherty are available for long relief if a starter falters. Monty’s been good with St Louis but he’s also the least experienced and probably most susceptible to nerves.

    #202437
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Interesting thought on Monty and nerves. On one hand he is almost 30 years old with several years of MLB experience. But he has only pitched in one game in the post-season. He allowed one run in four innings vs. the Rays in 2020. But then again, if he starts in the Wild Card round, it would be at home, with a supportive crowd behind him…

    #202438
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    There is a good chance we get a false positive result on Adams next start.

    More importantly, who is the opponent ? If it’s MIL it’s s bad matchup.

    No-one is pitching better than Q down the stretch.

    #202439
    stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    He certainly could pick up right where he lefgy off…Monty has the ceiling to shut down any lineup. Flaherty does too in fact. Hopefully both the arms and the bats get settled into order in the next week and a half.

    #202440
    stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    There is a good chance we get a false positive result on Adams next start.

    It could well be. It could also be a start where he finally gets the right release, angle, feel, etc. I think statcast will help tell that story. If he’s generating a lot of weak contact with good spin rates, command, etc it’s possible to simply be a true turn around.

    #202442
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    There is certainly a chance the “dead arm” will go away and that is clearly the best scenario for the Cardinals. The other playoff rotation contenders do not have any reported physical problems, however.

    I hadn’t thought about Waino vs. Milwaukee, but that is another factor for sure. A lot of variables to consider.

    #202445
    1toughdominican
    Participant

    Free

    I’d be curious to know if anyone’s checked to compare how the Cardinal’s BP matches up with potential post-season opponents. Obviously members of the rotation are going to have to turn in enough work to give the team a chance, but I simply don’t foresee any one of them working past the 5th or 6th inning of a high stakes game. There’s always the chance of a surprising Jeff Suppan like performance, but I don’t hold out much hope for a Chris Carpenter or even a Wainwright of a few years ago 7 to 9 IP type post-season turn from a SP’er. Cardinals are probably going to have to slug their way to an early lead and then hand the game to the BP and hope they can hold that lead to go deep into the post-season. They don’t have a genuine stopper in their rotation.

    #202446
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Pitch through a dead arm? Is that really a thing? Is his velocity down and are the Cards / Wainwright calling it a ‘dead arm’ or is he just struggling?

    I agree. I am not a medical person but pitching through a dead arm doesn’t seem logical to me. He needs rest. I know he is prideful and wants to be a team leader but the best thing for the team is for him to take a break.

    #202447
    1toughdominican
    Participant

    Free

    The old “dead arm” trick…I still sometimes fall for that one.

    #202448
    PugsleyAddams
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    At Waino’s age, you don’t just “pitch through” a dead arm situation. Oli is simply not wanting to rock the boat with Waino……and it’s going to be a costly move.

    #202450
    Cardinal in France
    Participant

    Free

    I’m a little weak on medical knowledge, but it doesn’t seem logical to treat an overworked arm by continuing to overwork it. When I’m overworked and/or fatigued I find it quite useful to have a rest.

    #202452
    blingboy
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I am not sure dead arm and overworked arm is the same thing. But I don’t know how they can sure which it is.

    #202453
    cardsfan64
    Participant

    Free

    Concerning dead arm, Katie Woo of the Athletic posted this:

    #202454
    Cardinal in France
    Participant

    Free

    Well, thank goodness Ollie has a “thought process.”

Viewing 25 posts - 1 through 25 (of 97 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.

First-hand news and commentary on the St. Louis Cardinals™ and minor league system for over 20 years