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Unless he straightens it out, can they afford to start him in the playoffs?
More to come in @theathletic later, but to reiterate, a “dead arm” is less about fatigue and more about lack of feel. Wainwright’s dealt with this before and has pitched out of it. That he hasn’t done so in September is the most perplexing, and to him, the most frustrating. https://t.co/6TxiqEVgI3
— Katie Woo (@katiejwoo) September 26, 2022
Mikolas, Monty, Q, Wainwright, Flaherty. Who are the top 3 for the Wild Card series? It they advance, they will need 4 starters, so who is that guy? Then if the NLDS goes 5 games and they advance to the NLCS, and then that goes 7 games, you might need a 5th starter. That would be the case unless there is a rainout or somebody goes on short rest. In any event, if Wainwright continues to be hampered by the dead arm, I don’t think you want him coming out of the pen unless it’s a one-sided game.
Of course, if we have to worry who’s going to pitch game 7 of the NLCS, some good stuff is going to happen.
It would be a very tough call for the Cardinals to exclude Waino, but the best three right now are Monty, Q and Mikolas.
Waino at home…7-3, 2.61 ERA
Waino on the road…4-8, 4.73 ERA
I’m content with him starting in St Louis, but not interested in him getting a road start in October.
Marmol said the way for Wainwright to get past his dead arm is to pitch his way through it. Maybe he could do it in the pen rather than in games, but there is the pride thing to be considered.
I am not sure his home-road splits that go all the way back to April are more important right now than his recent results. 6.38 ERA in five September starts, three of which were at home. 5.40 Sept home ERA, 8.00 on the road.
Maybe Monty is no longer an automatic, either.
Pitch through a dead arm? Is that really a thing? Is his velocity down and are the Cards / Wainwright calling it a ‘dead arm’ or is he just struggling?
I think the road-home splits still mean something. I’ll stick with being more comfortable with him at Busch than on the road. Right now, Monty isn’t looking all that great either. In a do or die situation, you’d think a short leash and all hands on deck would be the order of the day anyway.
I agree that Waino is better at home than on the road. The data supports that. But the real question is whether his recent downturn both at home and on the road warrants the risk of starting him in a three-game series?
And if so, in what game of the three? Do you start Q and Mikolas in Games 1-2 and risk Waino in an elimination game?
If Monty gets back on track in his next start, it could push Waino out… or not…
Adam is always effective vs PIT, his next start, so the org can likely claim “he’s fine” and line him up for the postseason.
At this point I go Mikolas, Waino, Quintana. If the Cards clinch in two then it leaves Q available for game 1 of the NLCS. But the way the rotation looks now, that order may not fit so maybe Mikolas, Q, Waino like you mentioned.
Monty and Flaherty are available for long relief if a starter falters. Monty’s been good with St Louis but he’s also the least experienced and probably most susceptible to nerves.
Interesting thought on Monty and nerves. On one hand he is almost 30 years old with several years of MLB experience. But he has only pitched in one game in the post-season. He allowed one run in four innings vs. the Rays in 2020. But then again, if he starts in the Wild Card round, it would be at home, with a supportive crowd behind him…
There is a good chance we get a false positive result on Adams next start.
More importantly, who is the opponent ? If it’s MIL it’s s bad matchup.
No-one is pitching better than Q down the stretch.
He certainly could pick up right where he lefgy off…Monty has the ceiling to shut down any lineup. Flaherty does too in fact. Hopefully both the arms and the bats get settled into order in the next week and a half.
There is a good chance we get a false positive result on Adams next start.
It could well be. It could also be a start where he finally gets the right release, angle, feel, etc. I think statcast will help tell that story. If he’s generating a lot of weak contact with good spin rates, command, etc it’s possible to simply be a true turn around.
There is certainly a chance the “dead arm” will go away and that is clearly the best scenario for the Cardinals. The other playoff rotation contenders do not have any reported physical problems, however.
I hadn’t thought about Waino vs. Milwaukee, but that is another factor for sure. A lot of variables to consider.
I’d be curious to know if anyone’s checked to compare how the Cardinal’s BP matches up with potential post-season opponents. Obviously members of the rotation are going to have to turn in enough work to give the team a chance, but I simply don’t foresee any one of them working past the 5th or 6th inning of a high stakes game. There’s always the chance of a surprising Jeff Suppan like performance, but I don’t hold out much hope for a Chris Carpenter or even a Wainwright of a few years ago 7 to 9 IP type post-season turn from a SP’er. Cardinals are probably going to have to slug their way to an early lead and then hand the game to the BP and hope they can hold that lead to go deep into the post-season. They don’t have a genuine stopper in their rotation.
Pitch through a dead arm? Is that really a thing? Is his velocity down and are the Cards / Wainwright calling it a ‘dead arm’ or is he just struggling?
I agree. I am not a medical person but pitching through a dead arm doesn’t seem logical to me. He needs rest. I know he is prideful and wants to be a team leader but the best thing for the team is for him to take a break.
At Waino’s age, you don’t just “pitch through” a dead arm situation. Oli is simply not wanting to rock the boat with Waino……and it’s going to be a costly move.
I’m a little weak on medical knowledge, but it doesn’t seem logical to treat an overworked arm by continuing to overwork it. When I’m overworked and/or fatigued I find it quite useful to have a rest.
I am not sure dead arm and overworked arm is the same thing. But I don’t know how they can sure which it is.
Concerning dead arm, Katie Woo of the Athletic posted this:
More to come in @theathletic later, but to reiterate, a “dead arm” is less about fatigue and more about lack of feel. Wainwright’s dealt with this before and has pitched out of it. That he hasn’t done so in September is the most perplexing, and to him, the most frustrating. https://t.co/6TxiqEVgI3
— Katie Woo (@katiejwoo) September 26, 2022
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