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How can the full 2019 season be twisting numbers to prove points? The numbers are the numbers for each player. They are what they are. The most recent ones at that.
Let’s look at a comparison between Grichuk and O’Neill.
Grichuk –
Milb – 2516 PAs/.278/.322/.504/.825/506Ks(20%)
MLB – 2,476 PAs/.244/.293/.483/.776/700Ks(28%)O’Neill –
Milb – 2,418 PAs/.271/.343/.529/.872/678Ks(28%)
MLB – 293 PAs/.258/.307/.454/.761/110Ks(38%)We traded away Grichuk, but we expect O’Neill to be the answer in LF?
bcc, yesterday you wanted “proven major league caliber outfielders” and today it’s “Edman in center, Carlson in right and Ravelo or Miller in Left”.
Sure,jj, I’d like to have a proven major league bat in the outfield. Most posters probably would. But for now we have to play the Cards that our FO has dealt.
I’m just as concerned with Fowler and Carpenter as I am with Bader and O’Neill, so “proven” doesn’t do that much for me.
Ozuna is proven too, but I found him to be disappointing. Slightly above avg as a Cardinal offensively and slightly below avg outfield D, is just an avg player.
I’m enjoying the idea of O’Neill in LF and Bader in RF, defensively.
So you’re comfortable calling Ozuna “slightly above average offensively” with his 29 home runs and 89 runs batted in?
Hummm.Ozuna’s OPS+ in his two years as a Cardinal were 106 and 107, respectively. That means he was six and seven percent better offensively than the league average player in those two seasons. That compares to his 149 OPS+ in his final season with Miami. Even with that standout season, Ozuna’s career mark is 112.
We traded away Grichuk, but we expect O’Neill to be the answer in LF?
Grichuk was average at best in the field and very overrated with the bat. Thus far, O’Neill has shown to be a better defender than Grichuk. Also, your stats on Grichuk are skewed by including rookie league stats. Take those away and you’ve got about 75 points of OPS separating the two. I’d consider that significant. Throw in O’Neills huge 2018 season at Memphis and he has a higher ceiling for sure. His floor is higher because he’s a better defender and his actual big power means he is likely to be at worst average with the bat.
It’s just not a good comparison.
25 and BW –
You don’t seem to mention TO’s K rate. Let’s take a look –
MLB – 37.5%
AAA – 27.1%
AA – 26.5%
A+ – 30.5%
A – 32.2%
A (-) – 45.5%
Rookie – 23.7%That launch angle is steep and the bombs are crowd pleasing, but what about all those other good things that can happen by putting the ball in play – moving the runner over, hit and run, sac flies, sac bunts, etc. If he somehow improves to his AAA and AA K rate at the major league level, will that be okay?
Grichek has not done that much better with the K’s at Toronto.
But I don’t agree that O’Niell is that much better an outfielder if any better. He may be a tad faster.
Our best hope is that O’Neill will improve more than Grichek has.
If I had to bet I would expect Thomas to end up the season as our starting left fielder if he doesn’t take away center field from Bader.
I’m expecting to see Bader really get good when he gets back to playing again. His speed is top notch and defensive play good , at times spectacular. He has power at the plate but not plate discipline. Have seen him swing at stuff nowhere near the strike zone. Seems like if he wants to hit it bad enough he will swing at anything. If he gets his hitting on track he will be a big step ahead of the other prospects. I see Dexters value right now in being a seasoned left handed bat. Face it we are and have been in short supply of those guys. He is fair on defense and has his good and bad moments. Worth the money? Seems to be a common problem on our team as well as many others. Need more left handed hitters
Let’s take a look at Lane Thomas in his lengthy trip through the minors.
2014 – 1 HR in 225 PAs
2015 – 5 HR in 221 PAs
2016 – 8 HR in 355 PAs
2017 – 4 HR in 347 PAs
2018 – 27 HR in 575 PAs
2019 – 10 HR in 304 PAsHe played much of 2018 in the homer friendly environs of the Texas League.
Maybe it’s best to look at his overall production at the AAA level – 444PAs/.270/.342/.472/.815
He’s had 16 home runs and struck out 113 times.Can he be a productive major league player? Maybe, but it’s a long way from being a sure thing.
Very similar SLG% to Edman at AAA (.483) vs Thomas (.472), but to be fair, Edman was no “sure thing” either. Tommy did spend the majority of his time at AAA as a 24 yr old, Thomas as 22 and 23. Looking forward to seeing both this season.
2019 at Memphis –
Edman – .305/.356/.513/.869
Thomas – .268/.352/.460/.812Edman impressive for a middle infielder.
Thomas not so impressive as supposedly a power hitting outfielder.
So you had Thomas overall performance at AAA, two replies ago. Then your last reply you felt the need to parse it down to 2019 only, to better fit your bash Thomas agenda?
No, jj. You start with the overall picture and then focus in on the most recent picture. Make sense?
You set the context with HR’s, but didn’t like Thomas favorable high total at AA, so you changed it to his career AAA slash line.
I followed your HR totals guideline with SLG% (because I didn’t want to exclude singles, doubles and triples as you did) and stayed with the Thomas career AAA numbers you established, with an Edman career comparison at AAA.
That showed Thomas SLG% favorably to Edman, even though Thomas was younger at that level. You then chose to cherry picked 2019 only, Edmans breakout season, vs Thomas. Whether you are conscious of it or not, you are abusing statistics to meet your agenda.
Yesterday you had Edman as your CF, but in this discussion you want to clump him as a light hitting “middle infielder” vs a power hitting outfielder. If “most recent” is your new context, you may want to take a look at Thomas 4 digit ops as a 25man member last season.
I guess you have to look at the roles, JJ. Thomas wasn’t considered a top prospect until several years ago. Just a high school draft pick who was trying to develop. At low A he had an OPS of .648. At A it was .643. At high A it was
.693. Then it went way up at Springfield to .824. And at AAA it has been .814. Do you want to look at him as a centerfielder or a corner outfielder? If it’s centerfield, I think you have may have a point. If it’s a corner outfielder, maybe not so much.Edman made the majors in less than 3 full professional seasons out of Stanford. He is an infielder who has now played some outfield. The Cardinals played him in CF one game down the stretch. I like his numbers as a center fielder. Not as a corner infielder or outfielder.
You move the goalposts wherever you need to bcc, you have the right. I’m not going to help you talk down Cardinal players or abuse statistics to fit my opinion. I did follow your ever changing parameters during this discussion. Most recent: Thomas .316 / .409 / .684 / 1.093 / 180 ops+, and no, he will not match those numbers in a larger sample, but it’s your context.
There are only a handful of “sure thing” MLB position players, and I don’t see one on the Stl roster. Good luck with that.
JJ – I’ve been on these Boards for over 20 years. 99% of the time I’m an optimist. About the players, the team, field management, the FO, ownership, etc.
At this particular time, however, we have an aging veteran and three unproven players in our outfield. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that with the Cardinals. I don’t particularly care for it. It’s my personal opinion.
And by the way, I don’t criticize your posting, so please don’t criticize mine by making accusations about moving goal posts. Thank you in advance for that.
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